Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Let's say you come up with $1million as nice round number. Again, this could as low as $500K in some countries and just for a very modest lifestyle up to $5 million for US, with many years to live, and with a nice lifestyle.

Daym you need $5m to live in the US?

Wellllll...

The traditional financial advisor .. um ... advice is to plan on withdrawing 4% annually.

So 4% of $5M is $200K. Is that enough? Before taxes? It's an individual target.

Note that the 4% assumes normal retirement age and life expectancy. If retiring early or planning on living to 268 years of age, you might wanna reduce the percentage for calculation purposes.

I might have different assumptions about the traditional 4%, which I thought was meant to be a perpetually sustainable withdrawal rate because it is presumed that you are going to be able to average at least 4% per year returns (some years higher and some years lower).  So, 4% should even work for someone who lives to  268 years old.

Some tricky parts are 1) withdrawing beyond 4% per year (and dipping into principle, and then if you end up living longer after you have depleted the principle).. 2)  NOT being able to sustain at least 4% on average returns on your investments, and if you believe that is actually happening to your investment, then you need to reduce your withdrawal rate.. most investment advisors believe 4% to be safe because they believe that they can achieve at least that level of returns in a sustainable way or 3) you have miscalculated how large of a principle that you need.. and the 4% returns is not enough (that is in the $5million $200k per annum is not enough)...

Part of the reason that you would want to error in the high side of obtaining a higher principle before your retire (or pull the fuck you lever) is to attempt to be able to account for the various unknowns, including cost of living increases that might happen or prolonged downturn in the economy that would end up reducing your returns and things like that... Of course, if you expect that you are going to die earlier than you can dip in to your principle and even completely liquidate your principle, but then yeah, you could become kind of fucked if you continue to live..  

Needs a bit of an attention span on the subject, but would recommend reading this series in case you want to learn more about the ‘safe withdrawal rate’. The guy really made an effort:

https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/

I did a quick glance at the article, and I will concede that the article seems to presume that some capital (principle) depletion will be happening with about a 4% withdrawal rate, so I will concede that there are plans and professionals out there that presume capital depletion happens with a 4% depletion rate - which seems to have been what jbreher had said.

Surely, depletion of principle based on a 4% withdrawal rate was not my presumption, but I still believe that 4% remains a good guideline to consider as a target withdrawal rate - whether you believe that 4% is sustainable forever or not in terms of whether it is going to deplete your principle. 

Surely, I was never asserting that timeline should NOT be accounted for, because even I have emphasized that both I expect to die an also that I don't have any intentional goal to leave assets to heirs, but if they coincidentally get assets, I don't have a problem with that. In other words, my personal best case scenario would be to have spent nearly every single penny while NOT being a burden on anyone and just leaving enough to cover the expenses of my burial and the handling of my estate so no one would have had to work for free in wrapping up my affairs.

So, surely everyone has to consider their timeline and also has to consider the extent to which they want to dip into their principle from the beginning of their liquidation period or if they prefer to defer dipping into their principle until a later date, and to have some supplemental plan that involves dipping into their principle or depleting most of all of it within a certain period of targeted time - and how their withdrawal rate is playing out, once they begin to employ their regular withdrawing of their income off of their investments.

The younger that the invest is when s/he begins to attempt to live off of passive investment income, the more potential years that such investor has to plan ahead for, so that would likely mean either erring by having a larger principle amount or monitoring much more closely how well his/her principle amount is holding its value after beginning to withdraw from it. 

For example, if the investor is 5 years into making his/her 4% per year withdrawals, and his/her asset is performing way higher than expected, then s/he might want to tweak the withdrawal rate up a bit, and the contrary is true, too. 

So, there is no way that I had been suggesting any kind of blind employment of a 4% withdrawal rate, but instead that each person has to monitor their withdrawal rate for themselves, and 4% remains a decent beginning guideline that can be tailored up or down, even before entering into the employment of the plan... and in order to approximate whether such a rate is going to be reasonable for the investor's situation (including considering historical standard of living and how that might be maintained or changed during the anticipated period of withdrawal).

[JayJuanGee]

What if you invest some of that %4 back into bitcoin?

Investment of an investment. Investmentception. Infinite money. *mindblown

You are the king of your own destiny, so you have the power to do whatever you like.

Most of the time, if you are entering into a liquidation phase (rather than being in accumulation or maintenance), based on your time considerations and how much capital you have accumulated, your psychological status is going to evolve in such a way that you don't really have any need to continue to invest in an accumulation or a maintenance kind of way.

So, if you are feeling some inclination to keep investing back in, then that might be a decently strong sign that you are not quite ready (psychologically or financially or whatever) to enter into a liquidation phase.  In other words, you are still either too much in accumulation or maintenance (psychologically, perhaps?) rather than liquidation.

[Cryptotourist]

You are the king of your own destiny, so you have the power to do whatever you like.

I have spoken.

[Cryptotourist]

JJG, it's Thursday.
Well, according to @jupiter9, where else? - in Jupiter of course.

[exstasie]

Imagine being someone who still thinks the bottom isn't in.

The market is still half bears? Plenty of fuel left for the rocket, I see.

To be fair, the question extended beyond BTC to crypto.

And the bottom is most definitely not in for shitcoins.  

A month or so ago, I was planning on another lower low on BTC pairs but honestly, I'm not sure anymore. A lot of coins are showing W-bottoms, big upside range expansions, or at least look like they might be bottoming out. I think the downside is actually pretty limited.

[JayJuanGee]

JJG, it's Thursday.
Well, according to @jupiter9, where else? - in Jupiter of course.

His level of dumb is kind of funny.  Gotta give him that, I suppose... 

[AlcoHoDL]

Today we learned that Apple dropped its plans to end-to-end encrypt users' iCloud data backups.
I've been researching the issue of secure cloud backups recently; here are my recommendations.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1219670250767208451

How to Securely Back Up Data to Cloud Storage
https://blog.lopp.net/how-to-securely-back-up-data-to-cloud-storage/

For all your encryption needs, I highly recommend VeraCrypt. The continuation of the highly successful TrueCrypt project, it's free, open-source, and thoroughly tried and tested. The "open-source" part is especially important, and is considered a requirement for an encryption product that's worth your time and trust, as a closed-source product may have backdoors that no one can detect.

Need to store data on the cloud, but worried about others having access to it or the cloud server getting hacked? Simple! Just create an encrypted VeraCrypt container, put all your sensitive data in there, and then store the container file itself in the cloud. No one can access your files without the container passphrase, which only you will know.

[psycodad]

Today we learned that Apple dropped its plans to end-to-end encrypt users' iCloud data backups.
I've been researching the issue of secure cloud backups recently; here are my recommendations.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1219670250767208451

How to Securely Back Up Data to Cloud Storage
https://blog.lopp.net/how-to-securely-back-up-data-to-cloud-storage/

For all your encryption needs, I highly recommend VeraCrypt. The continuation of the highly successful TrueCrypt project, it's free, open-source, and thoroughly tried and tested. The "open-source" part is especially important, and is considered a requirement for an encryption product that's worth your time and trust, as a closed-source product may have backdoors that no one can detect.

Need to store data on the cloud, but worried about others having access to it or the cloud server getting hacked? Simple! Just create an encrypted VeraCrypt container, put all your sensitive data in there, and then store the container file itself in the cloud. No one can access your files without the container passphrase, which only you will know.

That's not a backup. Seen this too many times, people trusting the cloud, then comes a thunderstorm and that specific cloud where your goodies were is blown away (with or without encryption).  Think decentralization!
I used duplicity with free protonmail accounts to backup some important data offsite (additionally to local backups).

I agree thet Veracrypt looks mature, unlike i.e. encfs based things that shouldn't be trusted with important data as its not good enough for that. But it's a nice overview that VB1001 posted, thanks.

[makrospex]

Today we learned that Apple dropped its plans to end-to-end encrypt users' iCloud data backups.
I've been researching the issue of secure cloud backups recently; here are my recommendations.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1219670250767208451

How to Securely Back Up Data to Cloud Storage
https://blog.lopp.net/how-to-securely-back-up-data-to-cloud-storage/

For all your encryption needs, I highly recommend VeraCrypt. The continuation of the highly successful TrueCrypt project, it's free, open-source, and thoroughly tried and tested. The "open-source" part is especially important, and is considered a requirement for an encryption product that's worth your time and trust, as a closed-source product may have backdoors that no one can detect.

Need to store data on the cloud, but worried about others having access to it or the cloud server getting hacked? Simple! Just create an encrypted VeraCrypt container, put all your sensitive data in there, and then store the container file itself in the cloud. No one can access your files without the container passphrase, which only you will know.

Good to know, i loved TC.

Don't ask me what, but my SOMA analytics device tells me something is about to happen USDBTC-wise soon. Cryptotwitter getting overly bullish, the pre-halving expectations are high, it's just a question if the market will follow or some majority (in terms of relative volume) will successfully trade against this. bears are still lurking, waiting to strike, may them starve on all their fiat!

[makrospex]

JJG, it's Thursday.
Well, according to @jupiter9, where else? - in Jupiter of course.

His level of dumb is kind of funny.  Gotta give him that, I suppose...  

You just can't see what Jupiter9 does, it's all clearly written in the sky!
OPen your eyes and you will see (and believe)...


EDIT: Wait, i think the effect of my acid is fading out. Shit, the writings are gone too, now

[DeathAngel]

Liverpool FC (LFC_Bitcoin will enjoy this) Goalkeeper, Alisson Becker in his instagram story last night -

Maybe he is ready to PUMP us back to Vegeta?





I wonder if he is a coiner?

[bitserve]

What if you invest some of that %4 back into bitcoin?

Investment of an investment. Investmentception. Infinite money. *mindblown

I know you are being ironic here... but at some point you will want to hedge. That is if you ever reach your goals in first instance. Or maybe even you would feel like doing it gradually way before reaching those goals.

Reaching financial independency is not just about a goal figure. It is more about safety in preserving that status.

Get that (MAX) $5 million amount we were previously discussing. Having it all in one SINGLE asset (or even asset class) and NOTHING anywhere else (including no income or retirement pension) could end up being financial suicide. No matter if it is a somewhat "risky" asset like crypto, inflationist FIAT, or even a way more conservative and safe asset like real estate... because... even in the later case... what happens if there is a war in the country you have all your RE? You are fucked.

A healthy and reasonably safe balance should be the goal at some point.

Of course that balance is something very personal... and maybe you could be perfectly fine with $1-$2 million in conservative investments even if you have a somewhat disproportionate $100 million in crypto. OTOH having $300K in crypto and absolutely nothing else (no paid home, no fiat savings and no or insignificant income) would be bonkers... even if for SOME people that all-in "bet" ended stupendously in the past. Many others didn't make it and were forced to liquidate at the worst possible moment.

(*) Some figures have been intentionally exaggerated to make my points more clear.

[kurious]

What if you invest some of that %4 back into bitcoin?

Investment of an investment. Investmentception. Infinite money. *mindblown

I know you are being ironic here... but at some point you will want to hedge. That is if you ever reach your goals in first instance. Or maybe even you would feel like doing it gradually way before reaching those goals.

Reaching financial independency is not just about a goal figure. It is more about safety in preserving that status.

Get that (MAX) $5 million amount we were previously discussing. Having it all in one SINGLE asset (or even asset class) and NOTHING anywhere else (including no income or retirement pension) could end up being financial suicide. No matter if it is a somewhat "risky" asset like crypto, inflationist FIAT, or even a way more conservative and safe asset like real estate... because... even in the later case... what happens if there is a war in the country you have all your RE? You are fucked.

A healthy and reasonably safe balance should be the goal at some point.

Of course that balance is something very personal... and maybe you could be perfectly fine with $1-$2 million in conservative investments even if you have a somewhat disproportionate $100 million in crypto. OTOH having $300K in crypto and absolutely nothing else (no paid home, no fiat savings and no or insignificant income) would be bonkers... even if for SOME people that all-in "bet" ended stupendously in the past. Many others didn't make it and were forced to liquidate at the worst possible moment.

(*) Some figures have been intentionally exaggerated to make my points more clear.

Very sound advice, Bitserve.  I agree that having a spread of safe savings that provide income away from the BTC rollercoaster ultimately makes absolute sense.  

Hodling Bitcoin does not provide income, it's an investment that you have to realise; whether that be incrementally, or all at once.

There is a time to diversify and make sure your retirement is not dependent on any one asset, and to make sure you're safe in most eventualities.  If anyone gets to have 'enough' to retire on from BTC and leaves it ALL IN, they will feel the pain of every dip severely, often to the point where they dare not cash any in during that dip.  

Having a decent trickle of income sorted for your retirement that you can feel comfortable with is a good thing - keeping some Bitcoin too also makes sense, but depending entirely on the BTC price after you've stopped working would not be an easy ride.

TLDR: At the point when you have done well enough, it makes sense to cash some in and diversify.  

[dragonvslinux]

Today we learned that Apple dropped its plans to end-to-end encrypt users' iCloud data backups.
I've been researching the issue of secure cloud backups recently; here are my recommendations.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1219670250767208451

How to Securely Back Up Data to Cloud Storage
https://blog.lopp.net/how-to-securely-back-up-data-to-cloud-storage/

For all your encryption needs, I highly recommend VeraCrypt. The continuation of the highly successful TrueCrypt project, it's free, open-source, and thoroughly tried and tested. The "open-source" part is especially important, and is considered a requirement for an encryption product that's worth your time and trust, as a closed-source product may have backdoors that no one can detect.

Need to store data on the cloud, but worried about others having access to it or the cloud server getting hacked? Simple! Just create an encrypted VeraCrypt container, put all your sensitive data in there, and then store the container file itself in the cloud. No one can access your files without the container passphrase, which only you will know.

I'm also a big fan of veracrypt, it's basically what truecrypt was meant to be (open-source) before it was liberated. I've been using it for years to backup my sensitive digital data and never had any problems with it, not even corrupt files. I'd also recommend getting a cold storage access laptop (one that you've removed the wifi card and bluetooth with no ethernet port) to access your containers if you do so regularly. The obvious point of failure would be keylogging malware registering your veracrypt container password (especially on closed-source OS's), then gaining access to your encrypted container - otherwise it's pretty much flawless encryption and security.

Hardware wallets are great for storying a handful of crypto-based keys, but veracrypt with a cold laptop is much more suited for dozens of keyrings and other sensitve data.

[Gyrsur]

it's over now! sell your bitcoins before it is to late. good luck to everyone!

#nohomo

EDIT: from now on I will follow this newbie with no exceptions. he will show me the true path to heaven.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5146383.0;topicseen

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5152851.0;topicseen

[lightfoot]

it's over now! sell your bitcoins before it is to late. good luck to everyone!

#nohomo

For what? Some garbage fiat offered by a corrupt government to play their game?

Sorry, bitcoin is the only game in town.....


Edit: Oh your info came from a real bitcoin trader! Well that's different, run for the hills!!!!!

[El duderino_]

it's over now! sell your bitcoins before it is to late. good luck to everyone!

#nohomo

#nohomo

[Gyrsur]

it's over now! sell your bitcoins before it is to late. good luck to everyone!

#nohomo

#nohomo

so sad my Belgian lost second child of my mother. 

[El duderino_]

#bitserve, indeed that the worst case scenario, when you believe complete and go all inn ( what is never the most sane option, but if), but are forced to cash some out at the worst time possible   ....

Imo some real estate or a house and a bit of land to own isn't the worst, if those options are possible.

[makrospex]

it's over now! sell your bitcoins before it is to late. good luck to everyone!

#nohomo

#nohomo

so sad my Belgian lost second child of my mother. 

c'mon we're all brothers in arms (except the bug, who fell in a fight against physical metals)...