Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

I don't think people understand how bullish the crypto sphere is right now. BTC 100k and ETH 10k are incoming and people are sleeping on it. If you have dry powder on the side lines waiting to move in, now is the time. You'll be kicking yourself in 2 years if you don't move in today.

fuck eth and mr V and you for that matter.

that piece of shit is costing the entire pc industry a fucking fortune.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TrustedBitcoiner]

Ok now is starting to look like bull flag on short-term time-frame, after failing ascending triangle break-out. Still expecting a fake-out to higher levels above $21.5K but this ain't no shorting range.

if that's not a good price point to short what is?
this has been one hell of a pop, I fully expect a strong pull back, maybe even retesting 15.5k.

When it breaks down from the bull flag. Not within it, unless you're scalping resistance to support that is, as it's a bullish continuation pattern until proven otherwise.

If we go back down to $15.5K, you can expect much lower than that though.

either way if it breaks up sell because the move is way over extended, or if it breaks down short cuz its going down.
IMO most of this move is based on a short squeeze , and some mofo buying, but now the shorts are liquidated only mofo is left, and its going to be hard to mofo buy when it suddenly drops sub 20K. I guess it all depends on how much money is on the sidelines right now.

all we can do is  draw lines, watch price, and speculate

[xhomerx10]

While doing a tiny bit of wallet maintenance today I discovered something strange

 I did a little digging and some searching and I found that disgraced user naim027 had a short stint running a lending service; the repayment address was: 18HfvLNNsZdMZeXmyKg59AfG7n4d1ibKRU (as posted here)
which on 9/14/2022 @ 12:24:14 transferred a small amount of bitcoin to this address: bc1qw0qsvzuxgmyqvc6mcaqw77v3sd9jt0lppcxkn6
which on 9/23/2022 @ 24:14:25 transferred most of that amount to this adress: bc1qy4ta9wtwufm3d56tqrys3wh50q7fmd7p0g0z6n
which on 9/23/2022 @ 24:28:50 dispersed ~0.00005 BTC to each of the following users at their publicly posted addresses -

  fillippone: bc1qd7rqlrw5h4q3g2x45xacd72zshcm2dht2ztclh
  Chartbuddy: 1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
    Gachapin: 1L1KknC9sGqr6CUuZzEME3V8YPSfLqLRoM
       Ivonm: 38s6Ku7BMThahWcSQQLwnM9K1U5GWF5Rkk
  JayJuanGee: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA
 OutOfMemory: bc1qhy8gjn9klgmtlx08a2cpruq9dkv0tvqhv5x5lk
     OgNasty: 168WXhArv7Fasqvi2xm5MQMfLhG18jifMe
     Richy_T: 1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
El duderino_: 19X5vZE8KGZ6YgtSkJmZEryDgX24tg6amR
   xhomerx10: 1RoMaNiAjSGeGsYJzPjsLUGogbDEsK4TZ

 I'm not sure what naim027 is up to nor would I trust any answer from him but I did not request his dust.  This dust can be used to track future transactions and potentially deanonymize you.  It's probably a good idea to freeze the UTXO associated with this tx to make sure it never gets spent.  Hopefully the rest of you either caught it already or have not yet transacted using that UTXO.

[xhomerx10]

Ok now is starting to look like bull flag on short-term time-frame, after failing ascending triangle break-out. Still expecting a fake-out to higher levels above $21.5K but this ain't no shorting range.

if that's not a good price point to short what is?
this has been one hell of a pop, I fully expect a strong pull back, maybe even retesting 15.5k.

When it breaks down from the bull flag. Not within it, unless you're scalping resistance to support that is, as it's a bullish continuation pattern until proven otherwise.

If we go back down to $15.5K, you can expect much lower than that though.

either way if it breaks up sell because the move is way over extended, or if it breaks down short cuz its going down.
IMO most of this move is based on a short squeeze , and some mofo buying, but now the shorts are liquidated only mofo is left, and its going to be hard to mofo buy when it suddenly drops sub 20K. I guess it all depends on how much money is on the sidelines right now.

all we can do is  draw lines, watch price, and speculate

 Dude, you forgot hodl.  We can also hodl or DCA and hodl or hodl and DCA and hodl some more.  So many options...

[fillippone]

 I'm not sure what naim027 is up to nor would I trust any answer from him but I did not request his dust.  This dust can be used to track future transactions and potentially deanonymize you.  It's probably a good idea to freeze the UTXO associated with this tx to make sure it never gets spent.  Hopefully the rest of you either caught it already or have not yet transacted using that UTXO.

Just why?
First of all, a dust attack is a lame way of trying to deanonymize anything.
Sending sats to a used address adds nothing to a future chain analysis.

Second: why do people on this forum now apparently only want to damage other fellow users? I though we were fam.

Anyway @xhomerx10, thanks for the heads up, I would have never noticed.

What is a dust attack?
Dust Attack, what it is, why it is dangerous and how to prevent falling to it


EDIT: Indeed I noticed it. I timely had already labelled the UTXO and frozen it as

Code:

Dust Attack 2022

.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Ok now is starting to look like bull flag on short-term time-frame, after failing ascending triangle break-out. Still expecting a fake-out to higher levels above $21.5K but this ain't no shorting range.

if that's not a good price point to short what is?
this has been one hell of a pop, I fully expect a strong pull back, maybe even retesting 15.5k.

When it breaks down from the bull flag. Not within it, unless you're scalping resistance to support that is, as it's a bullish continuation pattern until proven otherwise.

If we go back down to $15.5K, you can expect much lower than that though.

either way if it breaks up sell because the move is way over extended, or if it breaks down short cuz its going down.

It seems like you are new here. DOWNOnly analysis or UPOnly is generally unwelcome, because it's simply not how Bitcoin works.

Let's say it breaks up and outwards of the bull trap flag, what exactly is the target to short then? +10% from previous minor consolidation as would be the conservative target? +20% from the start of the parabolic move if we consider this as the flag poll? or simply shorting new highs randomly because price will eventually correct and therefore decline, despite quite likely ending up considerable underwater in the meantime? The latter would mean you'd need a stop loss of 20% would sounds quite rich, unless you are targeting a 80% drop that is. The other options means getting stopped out / liquidated is very likely.

The point is this short-term bull flag could take prices to $23K or even $25K, even if I personally find it unlikely in the immediate term. The RSI would probably be the most overbought in history, or at least the highest level in over a decade, but this also remains totally possible given how oversold prices got in recent months (particularly last summer). I saw a recent poll from CoinTelegraph that showed 60% of participants are bearish at this price, only 40% are bullish. So if you think most are long right now then you're way off the mark, as well as the idea that there are more longs than shorts still in the market right now.

Edit: The point is short-term traders are taking profits right now (even if prices do go higher) while longer-term swing traders are speculating on a trend reversal (even if prices do go lower), this is literally why price has been consolidating sideways for the past two days - there's a balance in play. No one is really shorting is range right now, as it's a degenerative move it seems.

IMO most of this move is based on a short squeeze , and some mofo buying, but now the shorts are liquidated only mofo is left, and its going to be hard to mofo buy when it suddenly drops sub 20K. I guess it all depends on how much money is on the sidelines right now.

While I agree are that a lot of the rise was a short squeeze, this doesn't immediately mean it's a good time to open a short (even if it usually is). You only need to take one look at what happened in April 2019 as the conditions are very similar. The Daily RSI reached around 90 after a short squeeze to $5K. They what happened? Price consolidated for around 3 weeks, slightly upwards, until another short squeeze occured.

The fact that price hasn't immediately pulled back from the upside around $21K two days ago, and instead consolidated sideways, should really be ringing alarm bells for you that downside right now isn't inevitable what so ever. You do as you please, as you need, etc, but I'm just warning you why experienced traders (neither permabulls nor permabears) are currently engaging in the "wait and see" approach.

[philipma1957]

Ok now is starting to look like bull flag on short-term time-frame, after failing ascending triangle break-out. Still expecting a fake-out to higher levels above $21.5K but this ain't no shorting range.

if that's not a good price point to short what is?
this has been one hell of a pop, I fully expect a strong pull back, maybe even retesting 15.5k.

When it breaks down from the bull flag. Not within it, unless you're scalping resistance to support that is, as it's a bullish continuation pattern until proven otherwise.

If we go back down to $15.5K, you can expect much lower than that though.

either way if it breaks up sell because the move is way over extended, or if it breaks down short cuz its going down.

It seems like you are new here. DOWNOnly analysis or UPOnly is generally unwelcome, because it's simply not how Bitcoin works.

Let's say it breaks up and outwards of the bull trap flag, what exactly is the target to short then? +10% from previous minor consolidation as would be the conservative target? +20% from the start of the parabolic move if we consider this as the flag poll? or simply shorting new highs randomly because price will eventually correct and therefore decline, despite quite likely ending up considerable underwater in the meantime? The latter would mean you'd need a stop loss of 20% would sounds quite rich, unless you are targeting a 80% drop that is. The other options means getting stopped out / liquidated is very likely.

The point is this short-term bull flag could take prices to $23K or even $25K, even if I personally find it unlikely in the immediate term. The RSI would probably be the most overbought in history, or at least the highest level in over a decade, but this also remains totally possible given how oversold prices got in recent months (particularly last summer). I saw a recent poll from CoinTelegraph that showed 60% of participants are bearish at this price, only 40% are bullish. So if you think most are long right now then you're way off the mark, as well as the idea that there are more longs than shorts still in the market right now.

IMO most of this move is based on a short squeeze , and some mofo buying, but now the shorts are liquidated only mofo is left, and its going to be hard to mofo buy when it suddenly drops sub 20K. I guess it all depends on how much money is on the sidelines right now.

While I agree are that a lot of the rise was a short squeeze, this doesn't immediately mean it's a good time to open a short (even if it usually is). You only need to take one look at what happened in April 2019 as the conditions are very similar. The Daily RSI reached around 90 after a short squeeze to $5K. They what happened? Price consolidated for around 3 weeks, slightly upwards, until another short squeeze occured.

The fact that price hasn't immediately pulled back from the upside around $21K two days ago, and instead consolidated sideways, should really be ringing alarm bells for you that downside right now isn't inevitable what so ever. You do as you please, as you need, etc, but I'm just warning you why experienced traders (neither permabulls nor permabears) are currently engaging in the "wait and see" approach.

My DCA is active.
I grabbed more miners.
I am looking for more more more.

[Crypt0S0ul]

While doing a tiny bit of wallet maintenance today I discovered something strange

 I did a little digging and some searching and I found that disgraced user naim027 had a short stint running a lending service; the repayment address was: 18HfvLNNsZdMZeXmyKg59AfG7n4d1ibKRU (as posted here)
which on 9/14/2022 @ 12:24:14 transferred a small amount of bitcoin to this address: bc1qw0qsvzuxgmyqvc6mcaqw77v3sd9jt0lppcxkn6
which on 9/23/2022 @ 24:14:25 transferred most of that amount to this adress: bc1qy4ta9wtwufm3d56tqrys3wh50q7fmd7p0g0z6n
which on 9/23/2022 @ 24:28:50 dispersed ~0.00005 BTC to each of the following users at their publicly posted addresses -

 fillippone: bc1qd7rqlrw5h4q3g2x45xacd72zshcm2dht2ztclh
  Chartbuddy: 1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
    Gachapin: 1L1KknC9sGqr6CUuZzEME3V8YPSfLqLRoM
       Ivonm: 38s6Ku7BMThahWcSQQLwnM9K1U5GWF5Rkk
  JayJuanGee: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA
 OutOfMemory: bc1qhy8gjn9klgmtlx08a2cpruq9dkv0tvqhv5x5lk
     OgNasty: 168WXhArv7Fasqvi2xm5MQMfLhG18jifMe
     Richy_T: 1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
El duderino_: 19X5vZE8KGZ6YgtSkJmZEryDgX24tg6amR
   xhomerx10: 1RoMaNiAjSGeGsYJzPjsLUGogbDEsK4TZ

 I'm not sure what naim027 is up to nor would I trust any answer from him but I did not request his dust.  This dust can be used to track future transactions and potentially deanonymize you.  It's probably a good idea to freeze the UTXO associated with this tx to make sure it never gets spent.  Hopefully the rest of you either caught it already or have not yet transacted using that UTXO.

FYI: I am naim027
Are you freaking crazy broh!
That was part of my first earned money from a Bitcointalk campaign and I just wanted to celebrate by sharing a few sats with WO Bros. I even posted it publicly and then JayJuanGee Sent a DM to delete the post. To respect everyone's privacy, I deleted the post from WO and posted the quoted post below. Now you guys accusing me of something I never heard of and never know how it works.

Claps WO Bros!
I have nothing to lose but, I didn't cheat on anyone.

Let's See how much does it worth after 10 Years!
It's Just a Dollar Today ($0.97).

[suchmoon]

I have nothing to lose but, I didn't cheat on anyone.

It's not like you've ever lied so it must be true.

[Crypt0S0ul]

I have nothing to lose but, I didn't cheat on anyone.

It's not like you've ever lied so it must be true.

You Suck Suckmoon 😉
Just kidding 🙃

[TrustedBitcoiner]

Ok now is starting to look like bull flag on short-term time-frame, after failing ascending triangle break-out. Still expecting a fake-out to higher levels above $21.5K but this ain't no shorting range.

if that's not a good price point to short what is?
this has been one hell of a pop, I fully expect a strong pull back, maybe even retesting 15.5k.

When it breaks down from the bull flag. Not within it, unless you're scalping resistance to support that is, as it's a bullish continuation pattern until proven otherwise.

If we go back down to $15.5K, you can expect much lower than that though.

either way if it breaks up sell because the move is way over extended, or if it breaks down short cuz its going down.

It seems like you are new here. DOWNOnly analysis or UPOnly is generally unwelcome, because it's simply not how Bitcoin works.

Let's say it breaks up and outwards of the bull trap flag, what exactly is the target to short then? +10% from previous minor consolidation as would be the conservative target? +20% from the start of the parabolic move if we consider this as the flag poll? or simply shorting new highs randomly because price will eventually correct and therefore decline, despite quite likely ending up considerable underwater in the meantime? The latter would mean you'd need a stop loss of 20% would sounds quite rich, unless you are targeting a 80% drop that is. The other options means getting stopped out / liquidated is very likely.

The point is this short-term bull flag could take prices to $23K or even $25K, even if I personally find it unlikely in the immediate term. The RSI would probably be the most overbought in history, or at least the highest level in over a decade, but this also remains totally possible given how oversold prices got in recent months (particularly last summer). I saw a recent poll from CoinTelegraph that showed 60% of participants are bearish at this price, only 40% are bullish. So if you think most are long right now then you're way off the mark, as well as the idea that there are more longs than shorts still in the market right now.

IMO most of this move is based on a short squeeze , and some mofo buying, but now the shorts are liquidated only mofo is left, and its going to be hard to mofo buy when it suddenly drops sub 20K. I guess it all depends on how much money is on the sidelines right now.

While I agree are that a lot of the rise was a short squeeze, this doesn't immediately mean it's a good time to open a short (even if it usually is). You only need to take one look at what happened in April 2019 as the conditions are very similar. The Daily RSI reached around 90 after a short squeeze to $5K. They what happened? Price consolidated for around 3 weeks, slightly upwards, until another short squeeze occured.

The fact that price hasn't immediately pulled back from the upside around $21K two days ago, and instead consolidated sideways, should really be ringing alarm bells for you that downside right now isn't inevitable what so ever. You do as you please, as you need, etc, but I'm just warning you why experienced traders (neither permabulls nor permabears) are currently engaging in the "wait and see" approach.

thanks this was helpful. but I personally will continuing to sell into this rally. I really don't think we will see a repeat of April 2019, the capitulation this time didn't push price That far under fair value. and for the record, i'm not shorting, just spot trading, so i cannot be liquidated.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

... I personally will continuing to sell into this rally. I really don't think we will see a repeat of April 2019, the capitulation this time didn't push price That far under fair value. and for the record, i'm not shorting, just spot trading, so i cannot be liquidated.

selling BTC near the bottom to buy back lower is a very risky strategy.... if you can even call it that...
...especially if you won't buy back in again at higher prices should they come

I learned my lesson in 2015

just remember that even small amounts you lose today could be a small fortune in 8-10 years

[Hueristic]

Countinual dumb ass actions.

selling BTC near the bottom to buy back lower is a very risky strategy.... if you can even call it that...
...especially if you won't buy back in again at higher prices should they come

I learned my lesson in 2015

just remember that even small amounts you lose today could be a small fortune in 8-10 years

Guaranteed this account will be abandoned and he'll be broke within the year.

[Biodom]

Making money trading is VERY difficult, especially if someone is involved in short term trades.
Medium to longer term-you can try, but traders almost always sell longs too early and hold on to losing trades for too long, hence the losses.
It's basic human nature, which is very difficult to fight.

Another common situation is when a person buys a position, then rides it down a lot and then, when it finally starts going up, sells at a breakeven price, thinking "at least I did not have a loss".
However, it is exceedingly unlikely that the price trend would turn on a dime exactly at his/her buy point...but it always feels this way, ain't it?

[Hueristic]

Making money trading is VERY difficult, especially if someone is involved in short term trades.
Medium to longer term-you can try, but traders almost always sell longs too early and hold on to losing trades for too long, hence the losses.
It's basic human nature, which is very difficult to fight.

Another common situation is when a person buys a position, then rides it down a lot and then, when it finally starts going up, sells at a breakeven price, thinking "at least I did not have a loss".
However, it is exceedingly unlikely that the price trend would turn on a dime exactly at his/her buy point...but it always feels this way, ain't it?

Everyone's smarter than the market until they're not and you have a tendency to increase your bets as you win which means when you do get burned the longer you lasted the deeper the loss.

[TheJuice]

I don't think people understand how bullish the crypto sphere is right now. BTC 100k and ETH 10k are incoming and people are sleeping on it. If you have dry powder on the side lines waiting to move in, now is the time. You'll be kicking yourself in 2 years if you don't move in today.

Just a little hint but your continual mention of that scam MeTH has gotten you an ignore from me and I'm sure most of the regulars if not already are not far behind.

 

Is this a bought account?

I've been thinking that for awhile.

For how long? Since 2012?

[Hueristic]

I don't think people understand how bullish the crypto sphere is right now. BTC 100k and ETH 10k are incoming and people are sleeping on it. If you have dry powder on the side lines waiting to move in, now is the time. You'll be kicking yourself in 2 years if you don't move in today.

Just a little hint but your continual mention of that scam MeTH has gotten you an ignore from me and I'm sure most of the regulars if not already are not far behind.

 

Is this a bought account?

I've been thinking that for awhile.

For how long? Since 2012?

Since this account started mentioning Meth in this thread.