Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

When I employ a DCA.. such as giving myself a weekly allowance, I try to hit the lows within that week... and if the week comes close to ending without my spending my allowance, then I will spend at whatever the price is at the end of that week.  Of course, you can set the days that the week begins and ends at any day that you wish.

From my point of view,  one of the problems with set it and forget it on most exchanges is that they do not let you set your DCA at an exact time, so they end up daily batching them and potentially front running them.  If they let you set an actual time then I would not be against any DCA practice with an exchange that allows for that.

I think I'll do it like you. I hadn't even thought about programming a timed order, I looked at my exchange and this doesn't seem to be an option anyway.

I guess there are regulatory issues with such orders, why was this one executed before that one, stuff like that.

I have been further considering my earlier response to you aesma, and for sure, the considerations of anyone trying to maximize his/her BTC purchases in order to establish a solid BTC position is going to vary when one comes into bitcoin after the BTC price had spent several months on a tear, including having had increased in price by 100x over the prior year - which was the case when I got into bitcoin at the end of 2013, versus now when the BTC price had gone down in price way lower than any of us had expected in terms of going 35%-ish below the 200-week moving average.. .so of course, questions about BTC price location could affect how much you might decide to lump sum in or front load your BTC investment rather than DCA'ing.. but of course, you were not really asking me about that....

And, for sure, your own particulars matter, including whether you had sold any BTC on the way up to $69k or back down to $16k-ish.. and then how much had you deferred your buying of BTC, so you maybe should have had been DCA'ing all along, and then now you may have deferred DCA, which might justify buying in lump sum and buying on dip rather than DCA'ing.. .and for sure these are discretionary matters and I frequently think about how difficult it might be to try to employ DCA during times in which the BTC price might be shooting up.. and that may even be worse than employing DCA while the BTC price is going down because at least when the BTC price is going down you know that you are getting more sats than you had gotten on your previous purchase, and the opposite would be true if you are DCA'ing while chasing the BTC price upwardly... so in those cases there may well be preferences to front load if you anticipate that you have deferred DCA buying for a long time and you might also be considering that the BTC price may well go shooting up.

Another thing is that if you really do not have a situation in which you had been delaying your earlier DCAing, but instead, you are just coming across more cashflow, and maybe in those kinds of situations you just buy what you can on a weekly basis.. and consider whether you might hold some of that value in case the BTC price might dip, while realizing that the BTC price may not dip as much as the price had been earlier.

No matter what it is not easy, and part of the reason that we might want to buy steady and on a regular basis is because the more that you end up buying on a regular basis, then you should have better ideas in regards to what your BTC target levels are and more likely that you have already largely gotten yourself "on-track'.. the more time that you have, the more likely you should be able to have your stacking figured out and so each little incremental addition would not be as BIG of a deal as it had been several years earlier.  In theory, that should be how more time in the market ends up beating out attempts to time the market... so of course, with you, you have mentioned to me that you have had several false starts along the way (which indicates screw ups), but even if we might say that you have gotten more serious about BTC accumulation in the past 4-5 years, then wouldn't you have had accumulated a decent amount of BTC in the sub $10k price arenas, so in that case you should not necessarily be as panicked about continuing to accumulate BTC in the supra $16-24ks.. so each time you DCA, its just another fraction of a percentage added on.. so it could take you several months just to add 1-2% onto your already accumulated BTC stash, no?

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has now allowed banks to now hold 2% of their reserves in cryptocurrencies as per its recently released Prudential Treatment of Crypto Asset exposure report for December 2022. In June, the BIS had allowed only a few banks to hold not more than 1% of their reserves in cryptos.

https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bis-allows-banks-to-hold-2-of-their-reserves-in-cryptocurrencies-2966647
Don't shoot the messenger, I didn't pick the wording

There is an exponential aspect to doubling.

In regards to bitcoin specifically, I would suggest anywhere between 1% and 25% for someone who is a responsible grownup.. so yeah, maybe banks have to work their lil selfies up towards the higher end of the range... .. but if they are actually contemplating shitcoins or "crypto" then fuck that nonsense, I am not even sure if 1% would be tolerable for that.. maybe 0.25% at most?... or maybe up to 1% of the bitcoin amount.

Been having a hard time finding particulars such as what banks are under their purview and exactly what the term "cryptocurrencies" means to them.

Hopefully shitcoins are not on that list but even if they were I don't see institutional banks receiving capitol from national treasuries as foolish enough to do a  full retard coinbase.

If the announcement of the govt regulations is not offering very many specifics, we still my be able to speculate that banks might start to offer various kinds of services that merely involve safeguarding BTC and maybe charging some fees for such, but yeah maybe they would not be able to help themselves in terms of starting to offer various other kinds of services that banks offer - so yeah, longer term bitcoiners might well conjecture that the banks might well want to start with bitcoin and then perhaps start to dabble further into other kinds of offerings, and maybe we might also expect that they might end up going way too much into shitcoins, which causes us to conclude that they do not know what the fuck they are doing, and the law had not provided enough guidance for them.  I am not going to proclaim to know, but we have tended to see quite a few traditional financial institutions who might say that they are focusing on bitcoin, but then they begin to dabble and then there is a kind of slippery slope that causes many of us to wonder if they really know what they are doing.. so yeah, they may well end up with a kind of Coinbase model.. but still end up getting themselves reckt in a variety of ways before realizing that they should be attempting to keep their focus on bitcoin and be evven more risk averse when it comes to shitcoins, but I cannot imagine that many of them will actually engage in such self-restrictions without getting burnt a few times, first.

Ok now is starting to look like bull flag on short-term time-frame, after failing ascending triangle break-out. Still expecting a fake-out to higher levels above $21.5K but this ain't no shorting range.

if that's not a good price point to short what is?
this has been one hell of a pop, I fully expect a strong pull back, maybe even retesting 15.5k.

I say, no time like the present.  Go for it!!!!!, especially when it is not my money.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

I guess that was it. Bitcoin bottom is already in by reaching the long term support trend line. We have also got a BUY signal on Hash Ribbon on Weekly.

I Predicted $16k by EOY in April. Here we are now and I am worried if we are going to bounce back up or going to convert this long term support to resistance.


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/u3AjxvVT-BTC-EOY-Target/

Bitcoin 1 Week Chart and 1 Day Chart shows Hash Ribbon Buy Signal.

[JayJuanGee]

Ok now is starting to look like bull flag on short-term time-frame, after failing ascending triangle break-out. Still expecting a fake-out to higher levels above $21.5K but this ain't no shorting range.

if that's not a good price point to short what is?
this has been one hell of a pop, I fully expect a strong pull back, maybe even retesting 15.5k.

Yeah right my guess is we do 22,222.22 before we hit your number.

edit: What do you think JJG?

22.2k or 15.5k which comes first?

I don't play those kinds of games... From my perspective, it is not even bettable hardly... including that I have systems in place in which I never have to try to guess about which one comes first because I have orders to buy that go down (starting at about $19.5k - ish - and I have a few play buy orders higher than that).  Currently, my BTC buy orders are about in $500 increments, and currently they go down to $10k.. but of course, I would prefer that NONE of them execute.. especially anything at or near $15.5k or even below that.  

In regards to me BTC sell orders the next one starts at $21,600-ish.. and those are becoming increasingly larger price increments.. and really relatively small amounts, historically speaking.  I had previously calculated that I had sell orders that sold about 1.3% of my BTC stash all the way up to doubling of the BTC price from about $17.5k to $35k, so that is pretty historically low amount for me and somehow it worked out like that when I have had the ability to sell up to 10% of my BTC stash for every 2x.. but it seems that I have not been close to those sell limits for years and years and years... and until I did the quickie calculation a week ago or so, I had not realized how low my BTC sell amounts had become. and I think that it has to do with how historically low our recent BTC prices have been.. especially since after about June 2022 when we got close to the 200-week MA and then dropped below the 200-week MA and had a lot of difficulties getting back above it.. which surely seems to have somewhat subconsciously inspired my towards biasing my system pretty heavily in favor of BTC buy orders that I would prefer NOT to have executed, but they are there.. just in case.. just in case..

but who knows?  who the fuck knows?  and really it just seems over the long run we are inclining up.. but not even that is guaranteed so I am not going to fuck around with trying to figure it out.. just keep my system in place protect myself for either direction while at the same time maintaining the preference for UP.. so in that regard, it feels way better to be bouncing around in the lower $20ks (even though we are still below the 200-week moving average that is currently slightly above $24.5k than it felt just a week ago when we were were bouncing around in the $16ks, and diptwats like TrustedBitcoiner was telling us how he was shorting at $17k and expecting down before up and at first he was saying $16.7k but then he upped it to $16.9k.. so cannot really rely on losers like that who are fucking around for change and also failing/refusing to pee pare his lil selfie for up because he is too busy trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller and imaginging his lil selfie to be the steamroller rather than the one who is getting smushed like a bug.

I don't think people understand how bullish the crypto sphere is right now. BTC 100k and ETH 10k are incoming and people are sleeping on it. If you have dry powder on the side lines waiting to move in, now is the time. You'll be kicking yourself in 2 years if you don't move in today.

Fuck shitcoins and crypto.

[edited out]

either way if it breaks up sell because the move is way over extended, or if it breaks down short cuz its going down.
IMO most of this move is based on a short squeeze , and some mofo buying, but now the shorts are liquidated only mofo is left, and its going to be hard to mofo buy when it suddenly drops sub 20K. I guess it all depends on how much money is on the sidelines right now.

all we can do is  draw lines, watch price, and speculate

Wow!

You sound new here.  There is a lot more that we can do than what you are describing.

Have you ever heard about time in the market is more important than timing the market?  If so, do you know what it means?

Largely it means that you spend years and years and years establishing your BTC position, so that you don't need to fuck around trying to guess about if you are sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP.  

In udder words, you should already be sufficiently and adequately prepared for up..


but I suppose if you be a newbie, you have to work on establishing your position, so hopefully you won't lose too much while you are fucking around hoping for (and betting on) DOWNity that may or may not end up happening either in the direction or the degree that you are anticipating in terms of "has to happen."

While doing a tiny bit of wallet maintenance today I discovered something strange
 I did a little digging and some searching and I found that disgraced user naim027 had a short stint running a lending service; the repayment address was: 18HfvLNNsZdMZeXmyKg59AfG7n4d1ibKRU (as posted here)
which on 9/14/2022 @ 12:24:14 transferred a small amount of bitcoin to this address: bc1qw0qsvzuxgmyqvc6mcaqw77v3sd9jt0lppcxkn6
which on 9/23/2022 @ 24:14:25 transferred most of that amount to this adress: bc1qy4ta9wtwufm3d56tqrys3wh50q7fmd7p0g0z6n
which on 9/23/2022 @ 24:28:50 dispersed ~0.00005 BTC to each of the following users at their publicly posted addresses -

 fillippone: bc1qd7rqlrw5h4q3g2x45xacd72zshcm2dht2ztclh
  Chartbuddy: 1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
    Gachapin: 1L1KknC9sGqr6CUuZzEME3V8YPSfLqLRoM
       Ivonm: 38s6Ku7BMThahWcSQQLwnM9K1U5GWF5Rkk
  JayJuanGee: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA
 OutOfMemory: bc1qhy8gjn9klgmtlx08a2cpruq9dkv0tvqhv5x5lk
     OgNasty: 168WXhArv7Fasqvi2xm5MQMfLhG18jifMe
     Richy_T: 1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
El duderino_: 19X5vZE8KGZ6YgtSkJmZEryDgX24tg6amR
   xhomerx10: 1RoMaNiAjSGeGsYJzPjsLUGogbDEsK4TZ

 I'm not sure what naim027 is up to nor would I trust any answer from him but I did not request his dust.  This dust can be used to track future transactions and potentially deanonymize you.  It's probably a good idea to freeze the UTXO associated with this tx to make sure it never gets spent.  Hopefully the rest of you either caught it already or have not yet transacted using that UTXO.

FYI: I am naim027
Are you freaking crazy broh!
That was part of my first earned money from a Bitcointalk campaign and I just wanted to celebrate by sharing a few sats with WO Bros. I even posted it publicly and then JayJuanGee Sent a DM to delete the post. To respect everyone's privacy, I deleted the post from WO and posted the quoted post below. Now you guys accusing me of something I never heard of and never know how it works.

Claps WO Bros!
I have nothing to lose but, I didn't cheat on anyone.

Let's See how much does it worth after 10 Years!
It's Just a Dollar Today ($0.97).

Yep.. I recall that we had some back and forth DMs around that time (with you as Crypt0S0ul, and I think that I found out that you were AnotherAlt and then somewhere later down the road a couple other alts, including naim027.. so yeah, not exactly inspiring confidence regarding what you were up to), and our DMs were somewhat weird, and I did suggest that you delete the post that had described that you, as Crypt0S0ul, had sent dust amounts to various members that you had named (which I think were the same ones referenced in Homer's post) - which you did delete that post.  

Anyhow, all strange to me, and I am not even sure why you did any of that in the first place, even though you do have the story that you as Crypt0S0ul were excited about receiving some extra money blah blah blah.. so yes.. that was your seemingly weird story back in September, too.. including I recall that you were trying to shirk some of the responsibility onto me for what you had done.  Again, not exactly clear what you were up to in that whole sending of uninvited dust amounts, as Crypt0S0ul.

I have nothing to lose but, I didn't cheat on anyone.

It's not like you've ever lied so it must be true.

He doesn't really inspire much confidence (including the multiple alt accounts that were hidden and then revealed and even barely getting unbanned and some weird stuff like that) that's for sure.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

thanks this was helpful. but I personally will continuing to sell into this rally. I really don't think we will see a repeat of April 2019, the capitulation this time didn't push price That far under fair value. and for the record, i'm not shorting, just spot trading, so i cannot be liquidated.

Wow!!!!  You are even more amazing than I originally had thought TrustedBitcoiner, especially since you are not using leverage..

That's good.. I think.





It's like being dumb, but less dumb.

 




What else would we do in this thread if we did not have actual real world examples to share their experiences (of what not to do) herein?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Negotiation]

I won't mind ranking you up.
But, Follow some basic ethics.
Make sure your post doesn't look like you are desperate for merits.
Congratulations on your new Rank.
I hope you do not support Bitcoin cash anymore

Yeah Mate also thanks helping hand for rangking up.

I hope you do not support Bitcoin cash anymore

I strongly never support "Bitcoin cash", when I made that post was I a new member and had no idea about anything. I misplaced the post for my apology.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

Guys did you see tits this... If you look closely, there's a W... W for Win ... W for Wall observer

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/10du9y2/if_you_look_closely_theres_a_w_so_this_means_a/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Unknown Op]

WO's user Which pattern #Bitcoin BTC show?? 



https://twitter.com/CarlBMenger/status/1615113526078590976?t=lTHddVSNuHOGH2gIktaN4w&s=19

[aesma]

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has now allowed banks to now hold 2% of their reserves in cryptocurrencies as per its recently released Prudential Treatment of Crypto Asset exposure report for December 2022. In June, the BIS had allowed only a few banks to hold not more than 1% of their reserves in cryptos.

https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bis-allows-banks-to-hold-2-of-their-reserves-in-cryptocurrencies-2966647
Don't shoot the messenger, I didn't pick the wording

There is an exponential aspect to doubling.

In regards to bitcoin specifically, I would suggest anywhere between 1% and 25% for someone who is a responsible grownup.. so yeah, maybe banks have to work their lil selfies up towards the higher end of the range... .. but if they are actually contemplating shitcoins or "crypto" then fuck that nonsense, I am not even sure if 1% would be tolerable for that.. maybe 0.25% at most?... or maybe up to 1% of the bitcoin amount.

Been having a hard time finding particulars such as what banks are under their purview and exactly what the term "cryptocurrencies" means to them.

Hopefully shitcoins are not on that list but even if they were I don't see institutional banks receiving capitol from national treasuries as foolish enough to do a  full retard coinbase.

2% in ape NFTs and memecoins :d

For reference:

Baby boomers: 1946 to 1964.
Generation X: 1965 to 1980.
Millennials: 1981 to 1996.. <——— Most of us fall here, Am i right?
Gen Z - aka Zoomers - mid-to-late 1990s to early 2010s

This data is for US but I guess can be generalized for other places too.


https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1615082440510373911

(Tbh, the gen z roasts are way funnier than the other reply that she really wanted... but then again, jmho and I maybe bias...)

The gen Z ones hurt more, too. Making them look really dumb and useless.

23% Gen Z adults owns bitcoin. Are we underestimating them?

That graph lacks the most important thing : do these people own the keys ?

[Gachapin]

WO's user Which pattern #Bitcoin BTC show??  



https://twitter.com/CarlBMenger/status/1615113526078590976?t=lTHddVSNuHOGH2gIktaN4w&s=19

Posting almost the same joke shahzadafzal posted 2 hours ago...  good work buddy...

would you do me a favor:
if you don't really read this thread, please stop posting here... have a little respect for this place


@sirazimuth ...I'm really giving my best to not sound condescending in cases like this... but it's hard man...

[Gachapin]

......


https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1615082440510373911

That graph lacks the most important thing : do these people own the keys ?

Absolutely. They should do the survey with that question instead of "do you own Bitcoin"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Ok now is starting to look like bull flag on short-term time-frame, after failing ascending triangle break-out. Still expecting a fake-out to higher levels above $21.5K but this ain't no shorting range.

if that's not a good price point to short what is?
this has been one hell of a pop, I fully expect a strong pull back, maybe even retesting 15.5k.

When it breaks down from the bull flag. Not within it, unless you're scalping resistance to support that is, as it's a bullish continuation pattern until proven otherwise.

If we go back down to $15.5K, you can expect much lower than that though.

either way if it breaks up sell because the move is way over extended, or if it breaks down short cuz its going down.

[edited]

thanks this was helpful. but I personally will continuing to sell into this rally. I really don't think we will see a repeat of April 2019, the capitulation this time didn't push price That far under fair value. and for the record, i'm not shorting, just spot trading, so i cannot be liquidated.

Ok well that makes my point about shorting redundant then. If you're looking for a fair price to sell from the past 6+ months of trading at the lows then you certainly found it, can't argue with that. DCA would have got you an average price of around $19.5K, so hopefully you're selling a profit. And as the old saying goes, nobody ever went broke selling at a profit. I just hope you aren't banking on pricing falling lower after this, because right now it looks like a coin flip to me as well as others, until there is further confirmation to the upside or downside. Not sure what your "fair price" is, but right now realized price is sub $20K.

Personally I think Bitcoin is due a 10% correction to around $19K, which is bottom of the previous accumulation zone, that'd also be my short-term shorting target (as well as a target for longs). If price instead continued onto around $25K then I'd expect a deeper correction of around 20%, but therefore this'd be a higher price around $19.5K / 200 DMA. Likewise if for some crazy reason price went further parabolic to $30K, I'd expect a 30% correction to around $21K / current prices. The irony being that price continuing to the upside would deserve a deeper correction for sure, but these prices would still likely be higher.