Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714250650]

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[1714250650]

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[1714250650]

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[nutildah]

Its funny to think that, in all likelihood, at least one person is just sitting on their McRib NFT thinking "this is my ticket to generational wealth." 

[dragonvslinux]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

[Gachapin]

https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

I wonder who that girl was that plastered the art to the wall?

quite sexy in her skinnies isn't she ?

 https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1623271902474108929  Maybe... maybe

oh ... ah..

I thought we were talking this *girl*
https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

[Gachapin]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

Very appropriate reasoning afaict

[Biodom]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

I might generally agree, but why bitcoin not having a blowoff top was because of anticipated inflation (in a direct fashion)?
Perhaps, it was rather a more complex relation: market surmised that because inflation is anticipated, fed would have to move and get into restrictive posture with regards to money printing, thereby restricting money flow to the most "speculative" (in most participants perspective) investments like bitcoin.

My position (unless proven wrong) is that bitcoin is still mostly governed by the 4 year cycles and macro could only influence it temporarily (like in March of 2020).

That said, I am enjoying getting 4.75% on my cash and at 6-7% I would convert even some stocks into cash.
If 10 year Treasury note would be at 7%, I would probably put 60% of my fiat into it and maybe some deferred annuity (rates should be great at that point), because, heck, what could be better in THOSE economic conditions (in fiat world).
Not touching my btc, though.

[Torque]

To all those cheering on short term I-Bond rates, be warned, the music will eventually stop. And stop hard.

The return rates will drop to zero overnight, and all the bagholders will be looking for the exit.

[Biodom]

To all those cheering on short term I-Bond rates, be warned, the music will eventually stop. And stop hard.

The return rates will drop to zero overnight, and all the bagholders will be looking for the exit.

that's why i never bought the stupid I-bond or even treasuries (yet).
treasury money market...highly liquid, 1:1 with cash and you could be out in 24hr.

To critics, I am getting into an age situation where money flow is what matters, so bitcoin is a long term savings account (a "fortress of solitude" in the "Gambler" parlance) and money flow from work (currently), pension, soc sec, money market (interest), potentially deferred annuities, etc, etc is a spending account with multiple entries. Never wanted to own properties for rent-not my thing when I would have to chase the non-payers (renters).

[ImThour]

Sup WO mates, how's it going? BTW Health > Wealth. Stay Safe!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Similar to previous fractal from last week, here is my short-term worst case scenario with mid-term best case scenario: $20K by end of month but $30K by June

I like it when people are more optimistic then me

Probably because I'm just not convinced that the macro economic environment being bad for Bitcoin, fundamentally I think it's good for Bitcoin long-term. Until Bitcoin drops further than -83%, ie further than previous bear markets without high inflation, then the -77% (so far) is clearly a better performance. I'm not sure how anyone can argue against this, apart from speculating that $12K is still coming but will just take longer than usual. Which for sure could still happen, but doesn't change the fact Bitcoin has performed better in 2022 (ie a year after ATH) than previous bear markets after 1 year of downside.

This is the only long-term bearish sentiment I hear right now, speculating that Bitcoin will perform worse during high inflation or a recession, without any evidence so far to prove it. Bitcoin falling -77% can be attributed to it's 4 year cycle, completely unrelated to the macro economic environment. Probably the reason it has performed better in 2022 than 2018 or 2014 bear markets is simply because there was no blow off top, not much else, and certainly nothing to do with high inflation or the macroeconomic environment. Hence the argument of being below 200 WMA is kind of irrelevant, because of course without a blow off top it's a lot closer.

The only argument I am really willing to acknowledge is that there was no blow off top in 2021 was because of anticipated inflation, but even so I find it a bit far fetched personally. I'm otherwise certain that if high inflation came in 2021, then everyone would be speculating that this is the reason for the bull market, rather than simply acknowledging it's to do with Bitcoin's own inflationary policy and post 2020 halving.

I might generally agree, but why bitcoin not having a blowoff top was because of anticipated inflation (in a direct fashion)?
Perhaps, it was rather a more complex relation: market surmised that because inflation is anticipated, fed would have to move and get into restrictive posture with regards to money printing, thereby restricting money flow to the most "speculative" (in most participants perspective) investments like bitcoin.

Indeed, something more complex like that, but otherwise under the guise of anticipated inflation still (whether direct or indirect). Or I take the alternative theory and speculate that because of the Chinese mining ban causing price to drop by 50% for 2 months, it broke the bull market structure of it's usual -35% pull-backs lasting around a month. The momentum had faded and quite simply took too long (6 months) to recover in reaching it's all time high again, compared to every other time taking only 6-8 weeks. This would also be more directly attributed to Bitcoin's fundamentals (it's network), as opposed to external factors.

Ie if price had recovered to ATH by July, instead of November, then there would have been a lot more time for price to continue to the upside (ie 4/5 more months). Instead it was consumed on a recovery. Personally, if I had to attribute the lack of blow off top in 2021, it'd be down to it's fundamentals - like a huge reduction of hash rate causing mass selling - as opposed to external factors that doesn't directly affect price.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

I wonder who that girl was that plastered the art to the wall?

Let me text and ask her 

[Gachapin]

+1 WOsMerit

I was completely blind for these poverty / forum rank / signature campaign aspects, man.
Thanks for shedding a light.

frankly... I'm only about 70% sure that your post is not meant sarcastically ...

Two things:

(1). I know you don't know my habits too good (yet), but i really try to mark sarcasm and irony (for reasons) using emoticons (grin and twinkle, mostly). Since there is no emoticon, you can be 99,9% sure that i meant it. 0,1% are reserved for the rare occasion of me forgetting to emoticonify irony.

(2). I wouldn't credit a WOsMerit if i didn't mean it, would i?

(1) thanks for clarifying.

(2) I'd say that depends on the level of sarcasm.  You can meet all sorts of persons online  

And I didn't know what to make of the fact that you wrote about sending a sMerit but did not actually send any...

Other things you might not know:

I am rarely aware of things i don't come across regularly, because of my fucked up Working Memory. This excludes facts and things i had learned before my Chronic Fatigue adventure, which started back in 2010 after a viral infection. It's a strange way to live through the days, being smart and intelligent but not able to hold information effectively in memory, which i was also very good at, before 2010. I come around slightly dumb to most "normal" people i personally deal with daily, which i find pretty ironic, but still - there is no irony.
Imagine trying to call out your neighbor's name to get his attention, but you can't remember it, because it is stored somewhere in your brain, but not accessible at the moment you need it. It's unreliable storage and retrieval of information in Longterm Memory, hard to explain how it "feels" like, so i use examples to make interested people better understand.
There are some Supps that help, but sustainable cure is yet to be found.

OT:

Speaking of Supps, i found some interesting Amino-acid lately: c, which is derived from green tea, works remarkably well at dosage of 100mg daily.
WO brothers suffering from mood swings, anxiety, problems to keep focus and feeling stressed out or unrelaxed should more than just benefit from that stuff.
L-Theanine is the active component found in green tea, but the Caffeine contained in the tea is elevating restlessness and alertness, pushing heart rate and thus working like an antagonist to L-Theanine effects.
I have read that it really helps peeps suffering from anxiety of all sorts, who also don't want to take these emotionally flattening antidepressants (SSRI).
A few days of taking that shit and it started to work a charm for my focusing problems. It also got noticeably harder to get me upset and/or angry.
#NOMEDICALADVICE

That's interesting.  I experience similar memorizing problems, although maybe not as intense.  

It's actually right on the edge, so that I can accept not being able to remember certain stuff at certain moments.  

I almost tend to feel that there is a reason that my brain does not dig out the stuff I want it to.  That reason being actual importance.

I wonder, maybe it just knows better than me what info I really need.  And I somewhat came to trust my brain to some extend in that regard.  (Trusting it to save the right resources)

For example, I have hard times remembering peoples names, but I came to the understanding that names are just not that important, when you are interested in a person's inside instead.  

On the contrary I rarely ever forget faces.  I can recognize individuals in the street with whom I had the last contact over 10-20 years ago.  And I can approach them and say hi.  For me that is far more important than to remember their name.

So I started to trust my brain a bit more that it puts its resources where it seems appropriate.


And thanks for the Theanine info.  I guess I will drink more green tea again.  Was a big fan but got lazy having to prepare it.
Btw there are some studies about coconut oil preventing Alzheimers.  Maybe it's good for memory in general.

[philipma1957]

https://twitter.com/streetcyber_art/status/1631428181973516288?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

I wonder who that girl was that plastered the art to the wall?

Let me text and ask her 

Is that your girl ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Volgastallion]

We now.

[bitmover]

Bart will help us

[JayJuanGee]

Well, just when one comes up with an awesome concept for AI, for a good laugh, to wit....

Me...."Hey ChatGPT, please write me a Shakespeare sonnet about how Mickey Mouse decided to cheat on Minnie and had an affair with Goofy."

this happens...

I'm sorry, I cannot comply with this request. As an AI language model, I am programmed to maintain a positive and respectful tone in my responses and
do not generate inappropriate or offensive content. Writing a sonnet that depicts a beloved cartoon character in such a negative and immoral light would be
highly inappropriate and disrespectful. I can offer to write you a sonnet on a different topic if you like.

Must be a bunch of humorless snowflakes on the content redacting team....Fucking woke bastards...lol*
*My request for a sonnet about my new washer dryer went right through, however.  Meh....

Did you ask ChatGPT its opinion regarding what to do with your newly constructed room in the attic or if you should throw your money away on new construction projects in which you have no plans or purposes?  Perhaps, you should designate your attic as a homeless shelter for shitcoiners gone reckt status and give back to dee peeps of dee worlds based on your seemingly excessive BTC-related wealth?.. but don't store that shit on a ledger...#justsaying

Explanation

I missed this dip but DCA'ed on 1st of March for the higher price  
Going to lump in some spare change, at least.

In the whole scheme of things, what is the difference? especially if you are engaging in a DCA rather than a lumpsum.. and if you have already been in BTC for around 5 years? or perhaps longer?  Let me put you at 6 years.. based in part of some of my random memory and also just because it is a nice round number.

So, let's just say hypothetically that you invested around 10 BTC in the earlier years (because you wanted to frontload your BTC investment and you were able to get to that level of BTC - not wanting to equate you too much with the supposed level that Mindrust had reached in March 2020.. but so what, it does seem like a potentially practical level and it is a nice and round number, too), and then you have been DCA'ing on average around $200 per month.. even though you likely had been fucking around with selling too much on the way up, so now you are kind of trying to make up for your various times in which you had construction projects along the way.

so if you already had 10 BTC, then the value of those went from right around $236,000 on March 1 and down to $223,900 at the time of your posting.

When you bought your $200 worth of BTC on March 1, you were able to get around 0.00847458 BTC to add to your BTC stash, but if you would have waited until the time of your posting, you could have gotten 0.00893256 to add to your stash... so what is the difference anyhow?  0.00045798 fewer BTC.   Sucks to be uie-pooie.

By the way, I do not recommend setting DCAs on such round numbers, even if there might be some conveniences, and I prefer to engage in my own discretion, and sure I recall that you are working with some kind of a broker, but still .. better to set up those buys on individualistic time frames rather than to cause them to fall on times in which they are either set by someone else or that they are falling on a date that is common for a lot of others to be doing the same thing.

[OgNasty]

We now.

I don't think so at all.  This latest drop was the result of yet another organization thinking they can use leverage to get ahead of everyone else and make a ton of money.  Now they're bankrupt and we get to buy BTC on sale near the bottom of the price cycle.  This is a gift.  I would highly recommend buying here and stashing those coins away for 2 years.  I don't see any reason why this drop should scare anyone, and it seems like it may be somewhat contained.  If we could recover from the FTX madness, this latest blip will be nothing more than a dip that should have been bought.  Pausing your buys here because of fear will only lead to future regret.

[jojo69]

this one.. APC rack mount 1500VA sinewave

https://www.amazon.com/APC-Smart-UPS-Battery-Rack-Mount-SMC1500-2U/dp/B007ZT2KV6

and man it weighs like a ton.

had it 4 years now no issues. prolly due for new batteries but it passes all self tests.

Just beware. I have an APC of a similar size. Probably not quite as nice but last time I replaced the batteries, it still said it had plenty left but couldn't sustain my server when I pulled the plug.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIEM2bG8mOQ