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velacreations (OP)
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August 17, 2013, 10:52:08 PM |
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I posted this on the main AM discussion, but let's talk about it here, too. I think this may make FC's "franchising" concept more important and profitable than we first imagined: This is a very interesting topic. That is why I wonder. It is highly likely that the network is 1,000 Th/s (1,000,000 GH/s) in 45 days from now.
So, say you want to be a player like friedcat and have 20%. With avalon chips drawing 9W per Gh/s, you need 900 kw just to power the avalons to get 10% of the market. How you going to do that? lot's of buildings with that power coming in? How you going to distribute the power? Oh, and guess how much heat 900 kW of power puts out when it goes into something that basically just heats up? But to get 20% you need 1800kW PLUS cooling. Even at 1W, it is an enormous undertaking. It will be cool to see how people over come these hurdles. Someone is going to have 500 TH/s rolled out by November? They best call the electric company now because ordering new transformers takes a while.
What they are saying is right. If you want 10% of the network in September, you will need almost 900kW of power lined up and ready to go. I don't think people realize how big of a deal that really is to get that much power online in that time frame. It's not going to be easy and/or cheap. If you already have a datacenter and power infrastructure in place, then expanding is much easier than building from scratch. AM's first mover advantage may last longer than anyone anticipates because of these limitations. At the very least, you won't see a new entity taking 10% of the network in the next 2 months. tl;dr - getting the chips is the easy part (and they still don't even have that) |
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"This isn't the kind of software where we can leave so many unresolved bugs that we need a tracker for them." -- Satoshi
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velacreations (OP)
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August 18, 2013, 03:45:05 PM |
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looks like price is dipping a bit, low demand, but I expect to see it start back up tomorrow ahead of the dividend this week.
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mechs
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August 18, 2013, 07:19:20 PM |
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looks like price is dipping a bit, low demand, but I expect to see it start back up tomorrow ahead of the dividend this week.
I think it will not find support until after the dividend announced and whether it beats or disapoints |
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velacreations (OP)
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August 18, 2013, 08:25:58 PM |
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looks like price is dipping a bit, low demand, but I expect to see it start back up tomorrow ahead of the dividend this week.
I think it will not find support until after the dividend announced and whether it beats or disapoints It seems to be holding around 3.81, but I agree, people want to see what the dividends are going to be. I expect that they will be good this week, as the group buys and blade sales should be going through. The hash rate is down, which might hurt mining income, but there might be something going on with that, cause rumors are that FC is testing the leasing plan. In any case, if dividends are above .03, I expect the share price to go past 4.25 quickly. |
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nubbins
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August 18, 2013, 11:21:46 PM |
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If you follow the wallet address (from this past week's GB) from both CannaryInTheMine and Sonic, it seems that they got close to ~4000 BTC, while they sent out only a small portion of that to FC. I was able to easily follow Cannary's out going transaction to FC's dividend sending address. There was only 1500 BTC sent from Cannary out of approx. 3500 collected so far.
It's worth noting that Canary and other resellers are also collecting funds for shipping (express/priority in some cases), which would not be sent to friedcat. |
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velacreations (OP)
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August 19, 2013, 12:03:14 AM |
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does anyone have a list of group buy and/or retailer addresses that we could peak at to see approx sales over the past week?
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velacreations (OP)
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August 19, 2013, 09:55:31 PM |
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better move those sell orders, guys, the labcoin crowd is coming back....
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BitCsByBit
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August 20, 2013, 12:19:07 AM |
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Not just Labcoin.
There is quite a few people that sold their shares in preparation for the announcements of the new generation of mining rigs, but are now disappointed due to the price per GH/s for late delivery.
We might see an influx of BTC from those ppl buying back shares or just looking for a better return on investment than KnC, Bitfurry, HashFast, Cointerra and xCrowd.
It seems like 28nm tech is just too expensive per GH/s for a good ROI and a lot of people wont break even.
EDIT: Spelling
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Tipsy jar: 1HgfLMXiJQj9KZ7abLRh9rWuR7dgeSyub4
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AMuppInTime
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August 20, 2013, 07:49:10 PM |
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(Paste from AM thread - relevant to speculation) -there seem to be regular sales every nights between 3.7-3.6- That trader most likely has an ongoing deal with the 3500+ share seller ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276891.0) for around 3.5 per share and is playing an arbitrage game by selling shares over 3.6 on BTC and buying them for 3.5/transferring them in. /it might be worthwhile to track HW many of those shares remain/ move and how that correlates to the sales on BTCTC... |
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velacreations (OP)
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August 20, 2013, 08:08:34 PM |
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my reply from the other thread: That trader most likely has an ongoing deal with the 3500+ share seller ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276891.0) for around 3.5 per share and is playing an arbitrage game by selling shares over 3.6 on BTC and buying them for 3.5/transferring them in. I don't think he's transferring them in, but he might be doing some sort of arbitrage like that. Transferring in takes longer than a day, and unless it is burnside/FC themselves, I doubt it would work exactly like that. But, it could be someone who has a lot of shares already on the exchange, and is selling his shares in exchange for direct shares. /it might be worthwhile to track HW many of those shares remain/ move and how that correlates to the sales on BTCTC... that's a good idea. How do we do that? |
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AMuppInTime
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August 20, 2013, 08:27:35 PM |
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/it might be worthwhile to track HW many of those shares remain/ move and how that correlates to the sales on BTCTC... that's a good idea. How do we do that? Track divs paid to assumed addresses. |
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freedomno1
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Learning the troll avoidance button :)
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August 20, 2013, 08:40:46 PM |
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Recently it seems that the speculation thread is more organized than the AM thread  Labcoin Thread Speculating AM value he-he https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263445.2600 |
Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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lophie
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August 20, 2013, 08:44:47 PM |
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Guys I want to move direct shares to btct.co, sent an email as well as a pm to FC. In your own experiences, How long would it take to expect a response?
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Will take me a while to climb up again, But where is a will, there is a way...
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CMMPro
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August 20, 2013, 09:13:31 PM |
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A week.
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velacreations (OP)
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August 20, 2013, 09:41:02 PM |
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+1 I saw that. Pretty funny with VE telling them to sell all of their AM to buy Labcon. That's called a "pump and dump" fellas. In related news, Mr "fell every buy order" is at it again, just pushed the price to 3.46 Can we all agree to be mature and not follow the price down this time? |
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velacreations (OP)
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August 20, 2013, 09:41:46 PM |
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Guys I want to move direct shares to btct.co, sent an email as well as a pm to FC. In your own experiences, How long would it take to expect a response?
I think he typically deals with this stuff just once a week, and if I recall, my last share transfer happened right after dividends. |
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stripykitteh
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August 20, 2013, 10:51:17 PM |
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Guys I want to move direct shares to btct.co, sent an email as well as a pm to FC. In your own experiences, How long would it take to expect a response?
I think he has recently been doing them once a week, on a weekend. So if you asked on Monday it might not be until Sunday. Direct shares are indeed not very liquid. |
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AMuppInTime
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August 20, 2013, 11:24:44 PM |
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+1 I saw that. Pretty funny with VE telling them to sell all of their AM to buy Labcon. That's called a "pump and dump" fellas. In related news, Mr "fell every buy order" is at it again, just pushed the price to 3.46 Can we all agree to be mature and not follow the price down this time? Unfortunately Bitcoins are by nature against price fixing... I'd suggest loading up on cheap shares instead. |
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velacreations (OP)
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August 20, 2013, 11:31:53 PM |
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Direct shares are indeed not very liquid.
at these prices, neither are PT shares. |
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velacreations (OP)
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August 20, 2013, 11:33:25 PM |
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Unfortunately Bitcoins are by nature against price fixing... I'd suggest loading up on cheap shares instead.
I'm all in, already, but I wonder, what about bitcoin makes it against price fixing? I can certainly see price manipulation happen on the exchange on a daily basis, and I don't see anything about bitcoin naturally opposes that. Can you explain that point a bit? |
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