ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[freedomno1]

Well I never got why the price has been dropping before dividends every week just makes for a nice buying opportunity I guess Eb3 might be the factor this week.

Time to speculate the dividends
Guesses around 0.02 again
JohnK said group buys were coming this week or next should become part of dividends then.
Trusts the escrows hunch
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2934529#msg2934529
Some group buys finish this week as well I believe.
Mining seems to be low but factor in leasing and difficulty increasing and the impact it has gets tricky.

[1714703636]

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[lophie]

Trusts the escrows hunch

lol that is more like inside information than trusting a hunch

[velacreations]

Well I never got why the price has been dropping before dividends every week just makes for a nice buying opportunity I guess Eb3 might be the factor this week.

Time to speculate the dividends
Guesses around 0.02 again
JohnK said group buys were coming this week or next should become part of dividends then.
Trusts the escrows hunch
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2934529#msg2934529
Some group buys finish this week as well I believe.
Mining seems to be low but factor in leasing and difficulty increasing and the impact it has gets tricky.

I think we may see .03.  Group buys are still going on, but retailers have been selling the old blades and USBs.

No one knows what is going on with the mining, and I hope we get an update this week on that.  There are lots of opportunities as far as profit potential, and I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage.

One thing is for certain, if the dividend fails to impress, the share price might slump as far as 3.2, and it will be a long climb back up to 4.  I think we'll need 2 weeks of good dividends plus an good update from FC to break the downtrend.  There's too much market manipulation and people going to Labcon to maintain a decent AM price right now.  

I have been impressed that despite the trader that keeps filling buy orders down to 3.5, the demand creeps back towards 3.7 every day.  That's a good sign, but it's still too weak to keep the price up until we get some good news and profits.

[mechs]

Well I never got why the price has been dropping before dividends every week just makes for a nice buying opportunity I guess Eb3 might be the factor this week.

Time to speculate the dividends
Guesses around 0.02 again
JohnK said group buys were coming this week or next should become part of dividends then.
Trusts the escrows hunch
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2934529#msg2934529
Some group buys finish this week as well I believe.
Mining seems to be low but factor in leasing and difficulty increasing and the impact it has gets tricky.

I think we may see .03.  Group buys are still going on, but retailers have been selling the old blades and USBs.

No one knows what is going on with the mining, and I hope we get an update this week on that.  There are lots of opportunities as far as profit potential, and I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage.

One thing is for certain, if the dividend fails to impress, the share price might slump as far as 3.2, and it will be a long climb back up to 4.  I think we'll need 2 weeks of good dividends plus an good update from FC to break the downtrend.  There's too much market manipulation and people going to Labcon to maintain a decent AM price right now.  

I have been impressed that despite the trader that keeps filling buy orders down to 3.5, the demand creeps back towards 3.7 every day.  That's a good sign, but it's still too weak to keep the price up until we get some good news and profits.

Even a good dividend won't keep this up with the network percentage dropping and all these competitors shipping in the fourth quarter of 2013.   Last I checked, ASICMiner on;y 8% of total network hash: http://blockchain.info/pools

[velacreations]

Even a good dividend won't keep this up with the network percentage dropping and all these competitors shipping in the fourth quarter of 2013.   Last I checked, ASICMiner on;y 8% of total network hash: http://blockchain.info/pools

that's at 30 TH/s, and they were at 60 TH/s a week ago.  So, either they lost half the farm, or we only know about half of their hash rate right now.

At 60 TH/s, they would be at ~13% of the network.

An update from FC could provide enough information for shareholders to rally behind AM against the "competitors" that hope to ship this quarter.

[superduh]

TBH i want the price to be 2 so i can buy up some cheap shares -

[velacreations]

Even a good dividend won't keep this up with the network percentage dropping and all these competitors shipping in the fourth quarter of 2013.   Last I checked, ASICMiner on;y 8% of total network hash: http://blockchain.info/pools

Looking at that closer, the hash rate is going up! 

It was 30 TH/s yesterday, 6%, today at 8%, 40 TH/s.  Interesting...

[Vycid]

Even a good dividend won't keep this up with the network percentage dropping and all these competitors shipping in the fourth quarter of 2013.   Last I checked, ASICMiner on;y 8% of total network hash: http://blockchain.info/pools

that's at 30 TH/s, and they were at 60 TH/s a week ago.  So, either they lost half the farm, or we only know about half of their hash rate right now.

At 60 TH/s, they would be at ~13% of the network.

An update from FC could provide enough information for shareholders to rally behind AM against the "competitors" that hope to ship this quarter.

Really? 'Competitors' is in quotes? You're certain not a SINGLE ONE poses a threat? Is AM a cult or a company?

BTW, it's not price fixing just because someone has realized it's long past time to liquidate their position. Manipulation is not the only reason someone would sell, sorry to break it to you. If he was trying to crash the market he'd be dumping all at once, not in digestible batches.

The sooner you recognize the trend, the less money you lose. Cut losses swiftly if you don't want to end up a bagholder.

This is your warning. It's "I told you so" from here on.

[freedomno1]

Trusts the escrows hunch

lol that is more like inside information than trusting a hunch

Perhaps it is John though
For the next few weeks this will be the trend
WWJD (John Do)

If we go by last months financials they had a lot of money in materials subdivide that into units how many units can they produce.
This comes down to scale in the end and who has the largest scale will control the most network
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Al1fvFT7Sd5bdEthNEpIWWxpcW90RFBQOFZ6aFlxT0E#gid=0

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
(Seems consistent with what we are seeing)

September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
(Nearing the beginning of September not sure where we are at for this segment three months likely adding more power to their units)

November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.
(Theoretical Competitors arrive and deliver by this stage on large scales as well as AM promotion to true competition the ASIC efficiency battle begins )

[stripykitteh]

Even a good dividend won't keep this up with the network percentage dropping and all these competitors shipping in the fourth quarter of 2013.   Last I checked, ASICMiner on;y 8% of total network hash: http://blockchain.info/pools

that's at 30 TH/s, and they were at 60 TH/s a week ago.  So, either they lost half the farm, or we only know about half of their hash rate right now.

At 60 TH/s, they would be at ~13% of the network.

An update from FC could provide enough information for shareholders to rally behind AM against the "competitors" that hope to ship this quarter.

Here's a "competitor":

https://ghash.io/

Most of this has come online in the last couple of weeks. I think believing that AM doesn't have real competition is an idea that's a couple of months out of date.

[101111]

An update from FC could provide enough information for shareholders to rally behind AM against the "competitors" that hope to ship this quarter.

Really? 'Competitors' is in quotes? You're certain not a SINGLE ONE poses a threat? Is AM a cult or a company?

Hey Vycid clearly he is talking about vaporware that until it actually ships is not yet in actual competition.

Also he clearly doesn't say certainly not a single one will ship.

That you manage to call AM a cult in the same breath is yet another demonstration of your BIAS and AGENDA.

It's long past time you stopped with your PURE BULLSHIT.

[Vycid]

An update from FC could provide enough information for shareholders to rally behind AM against the "competitors" that hope to ship this quarter.

Really? 'Competitors' is in quotes? You're certain not a SINGLE ONE poses a threat? Is AM a cult or a company?

Hey Vycid clearly he is talking about vaporware that until it actually ships is not yet in actual competition.

Also he clearly doesn't say certainly not a single one will ship.

That you manage to call AM a cult in the same breath is yet another demonstration of your BIAS and AGENDA.

It's long past time you stopped with your PURE BULLSHIT.

Well, I tried. When the whales manage to liquidate before you do, that's nobody's fault but yours.

AM had its run, and it was spectacular. Plenty of profit to go around for those who don't let their greed take over. Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

[101111]

Well try without all the bullshit and bias otherwise you just destroy your own credibility.

[Vycid]

Well try without all the bullshit and bias otherwise you just destroy your own credibility.

There is zero bias here.

If they take preorders, those are lost AM sales.

They ARE competition, product or not. The minute they start delivering, though, will be much worse. That is when the hashrate goes stratospheric and AM hardware isn't worth the ridiculous margins.

[Panterino]

An update from FC could provide enough information for shareholders to rally behind AM against the "competitors" that hope to ship this quarter.

Really? 'Competitors' is in quotes? You're certain not a SINGLE ONE poses a threat? Is AM a cult or a company?

Hey Vycid clearly he is talking about vaporware that until it actually ships is not yet in actual competition.

Also he clearly doesn't say certainly not a single one will ship.

That you manage to call AM a cult in the same breath is yet another demonstration of your BIAS and AGENDA.

It's long past time you stopped with your PURE BULLSHIT.

Well, I tried. When the whales manage to liquidate before you do, that's nobody's fault but yours.

AM had its run, and it was spectacular. Plenty of profit to go around for those who don't let their greed take over. Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Alot of clowns out there. Starting to look like FOXNEWS vs. MSNBC on here.

[joele]

More profit from AM from selling hardware miners.

http://bcoinnews.com/2013/08/19/authorized-asicminer-re-seller-canaryinthemine-launches-online-store/

[Franktank]

More profit from AM from selling hardware miners.

http://bcoinnews.com/2013/08/19/authorized-asicminer-re-seller-canaryinthemine-launches-online-store/

Canary's just confirmed he received blades late last week from AM.

...AND THE HORSES ARE OFF!!

[TsuyokuNaritai]

There is zero bias here.

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

I'm still buying about 7 more ASICMiner-PT put options.

Strike: 2.3 BTC
Exp: ~90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

(I am BUYING put options: you write them!)

Strike: 3.3 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.3 BTC

Well, I tried...

Plenty of profit to go around for those who don't let their greed take over. Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

So nice of you to renounce greed and piggery to spend so much time writing so many posts to protect our investment.

[Vycid]

There is zero bias here.

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

I'm still buying about 7 more ASICMiner-PT put options.

Strike: 2.3 BTC
Exp: ~90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

(I am BUYING put options: you write them!)

Strike: 3.3 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.3 BTC

Well, I tried...

Plenty of profit to go around for those who don't let their greed take over. Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

So nice of you to renounce greed and piggery to spend so much time writing so many posts to protect our investment.

I've disclosed those a number of times. I was referring to my dispute of the claim that there is no real competition, which involves no bias because it is objectively false.

For the record: the options at 1.8 BTC were a hedge for my shares at the time. I was bullish once (shocker).

[Panterino]

Really? 'Competitors' is in quotes? You're certain not a SINGLE ONE poses a threat? Is AM a cult or a company?

Looks like Vycid is suffering from the classic psychological malady of projection.