ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[glendall]

Actually the numbers match, so he does seem to hold all shares:

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi

If it adds up now, he must have purchased to fix it after his announcement.

So let me get this straight: Ukyo was fractioning his AM shares, got margin called (or however you want to put it), had to buy the shares at market, and now is MIA? How many shares are we talking about here?

Really quite frightening that he is still MIA. People are understandably freaking out a bit. 

And then there was only one (Havelock).

[Vycid]

Not me, not anymore.

So you did write PUT for vycyd. Does that hurt?  lol.

No, it doesn't, actually.

I mostly see it as me playing against him and he winning, and that's very good: who played best, won, and that's great. At least money went to someone who deserved it, instead of to some bank or politician.

Or you can say I've paid him to learn a lesson, there are much more expensive lessons out there.

Either way, it's been quite good.

(obviously not as good as getting it right, but better to fail here were the amount are relatively low, than failing much bigger later)

I'm actually glad to hear this. It's a lot harder taking money from individuals than it is from "the market".

I'm still not sure if everyone I exercised puts on was prepared to lose that money.

(... As trolls go, much less classy than vycid, I have to say...)

So "classy troll" is my legacy, huh?

So you did write PUT for vycyd. Does that hurt?  lol.

Somebody learns the lesson in a hard way.

Don't be a dick for no reason.

[btcbot]

I'm actually glad to hear this. It's a lot harder taking money from individuals than it is from "the market".

Don't be a dick for no reason.

Right, because manipulating new investors to sell by relentlessly posting on stock forums is in any way ethical.  You act like some kind of expert now that you played your little 'push the stock down game' in the middle of a whole slew of bad news and exchange confusion - but you've exposed what a greedy and shameless person you are personally.

You're a dick for a reason - to trick people into having them give your coins.  FWIW, I've been on stock forums, penny, etc. for almost 20 years and I've seen all kinds of short trolls.  You are truly the most shameless - as you're obviously not some Indian dude posting for $.05 a post.  You actually wasted your good rep for a few coins.  Pathetic...

[Vycid]

I'm actually glad to hear this. It's a lot harder taking money from individuals than it is from "the market".

Don't be a dick for no reason.

Right, because manipulating new investors to sell by relentlessly posting on stock forums is in any way ethical.  You act like some kind of expert now that you played your little 'push the stock down game' in the middle of a whole slew of bad news and exchange confusion - but you've exposed what a greedy and shameless person you are personally.

You're a dick for a reason - to trick people into having them give your coins.  FWIW, I've been on stock forums, penny, etc. for almost 20 years and I've seen all kinds of short trolls.  You are truly the most shameless - as you're obviously not some Indian dude posting for $.05 a post.  You actually wasted your good rep for a few coins.  Pathetic...

Thanks for the update, Vycid. You are such a troll. It's almost funny.

He's not even worth putting on ignore he's so full of his own hype, it's fun to watch him squirm .  The entertainment value of a short who's trapped... begging for attention.  Hilarious...

Something something squirming of a long who is trapped.

It's not hilarious to me, though, you probably lost a lot of money and that's made you upset. I get that. What I don't understand is how the market correction is my fault, especially considering my recent absence does not appear to have impacted the trend.

As for "'playing the push down game' in the middle of a whole slew of bad news and exchange confusion", I have been bearish on AM for longer than your account has been registered. The bad news was more or less stuff I'd been saying might happen for months.

I tried to warn you, you mocked me, you were wrong, game over.

[jeffshed]

I hate to admit it, but vycid was right when he was saying that AM was overvalued a month or two ago.

He's not even that bearish at the moment.

chill.

btw AM is still overvalued until they have solid news on new hardware....

[btcbot]

I'm actually glad to hear this. It's a lot harder taking money from individuals than it is from "the market".

Don't be a dick for no reason.

Right, because manipulating new investors to sell by relentlessly posting on stock forums is in any way ethical.  You act like some kind of expert now that you played your little 'push the stock down game' in the middle of a whole slew of bad news and exchange confusion - but you've exposed what a greedy and shameless person you are personally.

You're a dick for a reason - to trick people into having them give your coins.  FWIW, I've been on stock forums, penny, etc. for almost 20 years and I've seen all kinds of short trolls.  You are truly the most shameless - as you're obviously not some Indian dude posting for $.05 a post.  You actually wasted your good rep for a few coins.  Pathetic...

Thanks for the update, Vycid. You are such a troll. It's almost funny.

He's not even worth putting on ignore he's so full of his own hype, it's fun to watch him squirm .  The entertainment value of a short who's trapped... begging for attention.  Hilarious...

Something something squirming of a long who is trapped.

It's not hilarious to me, though, you probably lost a lot of money and that's made you upset. I get that. What I don't understand is how the market correction is my fault, especially considering my recent absence does not appear to have impacted the trend.

As for "'playing the push down game' in the middle of a whole slew of bad news and exchange confusion", I have been bearish on AM for longer than your account has been registered. The bad news was more or less stuff I'd been saying might happen for months.

I tried to warn you, you mocked me, you were wrong, game over.

Dude... I know there's no way to convince you of this, but I haven't lost any money.  You 'owned' this rather obvious correction.  You played it like your little fiddle - costing a lot of n00bs their little fortune - and now you strut and think you're an expert.  You are an unethical troll and now you begin to conform to the trope of stock short troll by calling me a 'trapped long'.  Hilarious...  

Also, I've never mocked your posts - I've mocked your ethics - I'm the guy that got you to add that disclaimer on your sigs.  I've never argued that AM wasn't going down.  That seemed rather obvious.  

You contributed to panic sell-offs in a monumentally unethical and shameful way, for your own profit, and you should be ashamed to still be here, strutting around like you did nothing wrong - like some type of expert.

  

[Lohoris]

Right, because manipulating new investors to sell by relentlessly posting on stock forums is in any way ethical.

Are you insane?!?

He told he hoped small investors would cash out before the whales did, because it was going to plummet... and it did. And this when the price was ~3 BTC.
He gave us the right advice, of course people didn't listen, and their investment vaporised.
And now he has to be bashed, too?
Have you considered the possibility that you are the asshole, here?

[btcbot]

Right, because manipulating new investors to sell by relentlessly posting on stock forums is in any way ethical.

Are you insane?!?

He told he hoped small investors would cash out before the whales did, because it was going to plummet... and it did. And this when the price was ~3 BTC.
He gave us the right advice, of course people didn't listen, and their investment vaporised.
And now he has to be bashed, too?
Have you considered the possibility that you are the asshole, here?

Thanks... yes I have and I'm certainly coming off as a bit righteous.  It's just that your point - is the problem.  He bashes a stock repeatedly (often merely using FUD - FC's been incommunicative, etc.) and then wins in the process and then sticks around and acts like he was giving advice - because he predicted and contributed to the price going down - I'm sorry that's just not cool.  

He may actually be a great guy that decided that since he was giving advice, anyways,   he might as well financially profit from it.  OK...

Anyways... I hate bullies and I hate it even more when folks don't see - the situation is morally complicated.  The dude took advantage - which is not what this Bitcoin scene is all about - he took advantage of n00bal emotions, he took advantage of FC being busy setting up the new HK data center, he took advantage of the smaller dividends to stoke a doubt into a panic.  The exchanges closing just added the fuel.  

Profiting by contributing to panic at the loss of other's wealth is just plain not cool...

I'll shut up now and you guys can trumpet the dude's brilliance, honesty, and integrity in insuring we all got <cough> out <cough> in time.   

[Lohoris]

Thanks... yes I have and I'm certainly coming off as a bit righteous.  It's just that your point - is the problem.  He bashes a stock repeatedly (often merely using FUD - FC's been incommunicative, etc.) and then wins in the process and then sticks around and acts like he was giving advice - because he predicted and contributed to the price going down - I'm sorry that's just not cool.  

Friedcat was giving regular updates in the past, then he stopped giving regular updates.
Also, he's considered trustworthy.
Hence, what's the most obvious reason he would stop giving updates: there weren't good news, and he wasn't the kind of person to fake, so he just shut up instead of giving bad news.
Not FUD, facts. Everyone could see them, if they just looked with their eyes, instead with the greedy eyes of hope.
We've been pretty stupid, and we've been rightly bashed for that.
I appreciate that stupid people get punished, natural selection sometimes works.

Furthermore, I don't understand how can you believe that vycyd was able on his own to cause AM to plummet, or even to help it.
He simply tryed to destroy the illusion, i.e. the bubble, that many people wanted to pump.
If your strategy of success is hoping a bubble will go on, bad news for you.

That being said, I somewhat appreciate this post of yours.

[stripykitteh]

Vycid's arguments had a lot to do with getting me out of AM. For weeks I saw what he was writing. It kind of annoyed me but I kept reading it anyway. Thankfully, I realized he was probably right in time to keep most of my profits. He didn't have to do it. He would have made decent profits out of shorting AM anyway. I haven't seen a shred of evidence that his actions moved the market. Let's face it, the market only really turned south when the weekly dividends started to dry up. Why did the weekly dividends dry up? Competition, just like Vycid said it would. When I saw ghash.io's hashate outstrip AM's in a couple of weeks, it became frighteningly clear that AM's price was ridiculous and doomed to fall and I got out.

Vycid is a smart guy who had an opinion based on facts and consistently repeated that opinion in public in the face of scorn from many. He would have profited from that opinion anyway. But he got a few small fish like me to escape before being wiped out by the whales. I don't see what he did as being unethical. Unusual? Yes, but not unethical.

[EskimoBob]

And another mining Co has gone tits up...
I was expecting AM to earn something form sales of hardware but looking at the share price, I was wrong.

[SOSLOVE868]

Vycid's arguments had a lot to do with getting me out of AM. For weeks I saw what he was writing. It kind of annoyed me but I kept reading it anyway. Thankfully, I realized he was probably right in time to keep most of my profits. He didn't have to do it. He would have made decent profits out of shorting AM anyway. I haven't seen a shred of evidence that his actions moved the market. Let's face it, the market only really turned south when the weekly dividends started to dry up. Why did the weekly dividends dry up? Competition, just like Vycid said it would. When I saw ghash.io's hashate outstrip AM's in a couple of weeks, it became frighteningly clear that AM's price was ridiculous and doomed to fall and I got out.

Vycid is a smart guy who had an opinion based on facts and consistently repeated that opinion in public in the face of scorn from many. He would have profited from that opinion anyway. But he got a few small fish like me to escape before being wiped out by the whales. I don't see what he did as being unethical. Unusual? Yes, but not unethical.

Congratulation that you did follow the right signal, I feel upset for myself that when I was get huge profit from AM ,then reentry the stock at the price of 3.3 ,it not only taking away all my profit , it also causing me very close to loss position.. I am so regret ,, but what Can I do ?I think the only way is to keep trust in Friedcat, as he may bring a miracle revenge of the cat....

[supert]

Vycid is a smart guy who had an opinion based on facts and consistently repeated that opinion in public in the face of scorn from many. He would have profited from that opinion anyway. But he got a few small fish like me to escape before being wiped out by the whales. I don't see what he did as being unethical. Unusual? Yes, but not unethical.

Partly true but there was plenty of trolling in there too.

[Lohoris]

I think the only way is to keep trust in Friedcat, as he may bring a miracle revenge of the cat....

Hoping for miracles is stupid.
I'm holding the shares I have left, at a loss of ~33% (including dividends gains), only because the regret I would feel in the unlikely case they would go up would be much more than that I would feel if I keep them and they bottom to 0.

At least I was able to sell ~half of them.

Partly true but there was plenty of trolling in there too.

If by trolling you mean keeping telling the truth and helping people even when everyone scorns you, then yes he was trolling.
Like Cassandra.

[SOSLOVE868]

I think the only way is to keep trust in Friedcat, as he may bring a miracle revenge of the cat....

Hoping for miracles is stupid.
I'm holding the shares I have left, at a loss of ~33% (including dividends gains), only because the regret I would feel in the unlikely case they would go up would be much more than that I would feel if I keep them and they bottom to 0.

At least I was able to sell ~half of them.

[/quote]



I just can't accept that massive loss...every time I thought to myself this time will be bottom... and couple of days later, new bottom reached...The current thinking is I know that there is no way for me to cover the massive loss..  390 BTC invested is only worth 115 BTC right now...  70% of its value gone ...what should I do ? I think I am kind of burning myself at this moment.

[Lohoris]

I just can't accept that massive loss...every time I thought to myself this time will be bottom... and couple of days later, new bottom reached...The current thinking is I know that there is no way for me to cover the massive loss..  390 BTC invested is only worth 115 BTC right now...  70% of its value gone ...what should I do ? I think I am kind of burning myself at this moment.

Please don't burn yourself neither do anything stupid like that.

That being said, as long as you did what everyone everywere suggests, i.e. "don't invest more that you can afford to lose", you can easily think of this as a hard-earned lesson. Definitely not the end of the world.

[SOSLOVE868]

I just can't accept that massive loss...every time I thought to myself this time will be bottom... and couple of days later, new bottom reached...The current thinking is I know that there is no way for me to cover the massive loss..  390 BTC invested is only worth 115 BTC right now...  70% of its value gone ...what should I do ? I think I am kind of burning myself at this moment.

Please don't burn yourself neither do anything stupid like that.

That being said, as long as you did what everyone everywere suggests, i.e. "don't invest more that you can afford to lose", you can easily think of this as a hard-earned lesson. Definitely not the end of the world.

although that I made 70% loss on AM ,my overall result of my investment still profit at this moment... I do understand that still much better than others...but I used to earned a luxury car, now it only worth to buy a motor bike... Nice time indeed....

[LainZ]

I think that boards members havent quite sold yet, and that ASICMINER has a future, probably with some kick ass design in 2014, preferably 28nm full custom-there was a need for R&D and friedcat covered that by spreading risks between different teams. The money is being put to good use.

Meanwhile the competition that once was in front of ASICMINER like BFL or AVALON are now dead to customers.

Since August, new challengers (bitfury,kncimer) are appearing @ full force. I wait for Hashfast and Cointerra to deliver.

I am also looking to see if a bitcoin price crash will happen soon(mtgox probably), I remember this quote:

Certainly coins eventually get enticed out with a high enough price, in the last crash 150k coins instantly appeared, all desperate to sell for something remotely close to the 260 high, a similar rush of coins could easily knock price back to double digits because all the coins offered on Gox are just a smidgin of the total supply. 

The coins held by Gox but not actually offered are clearly very very numerous as the speed at which the 150k appeared could only have come from coins already in the Gox system.  So while their were technically only 20k coins offered their were probably 10 times that number 'lurking' and waiting to pounce once it looked like the market had peaked.  That's why the price was unsustainable, it was a lie that their were really only 20k coins available.

When your supply numbers are so manipulated it's so easy to manipulate the market by withdrawing or moving bids.  This is part of why Gox is so BAD as a market, it allows the out right lie of putting out offers that are never intended to be filled and will be retracted as soon as price approaches them, no legitimate market allows this kind of behavior.  If people were allowed to put in only true bids and offers and not retract them or place them at a panic speed then we would not see bubbles grow to this magnitude.

Also I'm not really convinced someone is pumping the market in preparation for a dump (wouldn't be the least surprised if that was the case though), some BTC whale might really think they are becoming 'wealthier' or are even making everyone with BTC wealthier by driving this thing up, people can really be that dump particularly in BTC land.

In August,it seems to me that one of the reason the ASICMINER' shares price plummeted to 2 from 4 was: (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg90zczsg2013-08-01zeg2013-08-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv)

A sudden move up in the bitcoin price. (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg90zczsg2013-08-01zeg2013-08-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv)

Now I cant predict the future but would like to know, if we are coming back to double digits, what will happen with the shares price?..

[bitrich]

I currently do not own asicminer, I sold all my shares when we dropped below 1.5 the last time. I lost money just like everyone else, but it's a little childish to blame people on this thread for the downtrend. They are plenty of real reasons am is going down and everyone knows it. The knnejerk reaction of getting mad and looking for someone to blame is natural, but not fair at all. AM is now a hardware sales company at a time when the hardware they sell has been proven unprofitable. That's the bottom line and until AM changes something the share price will continue its downward tumble, stopping only for panicked investor who prop up the price. Once enough proppers lose money it will free fall below 0.5 is my guess. This is just my opinon and observations and truly not FUD. The share price trend is the FUD and the real reason the selloff will continue.

[velacreations]

AM is now a hardware sales company at a time when the hardware they sell has been proven unprofitable.

that's complete bullshit.  AM has sold out of their hardware, which means the demand is still there.  

Profitable?  The margins on these devices are still very high (over 50%).

People can't act like the exchanges failing had nothing to do with the share price.  The share price took a massive hit after the BTCT announcement.  On the BitFunder announcement, it halved.