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kabopar
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November 06, 2013, 07:47:46 AM |
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If there is some 'spare' time because we are waiting for Atmel components, perhaps it could be used to verify the Bitfury ASICs before assembly? I'm one of those that recently got a BlueFury USB miner, based on the same chip, some of the people report significantly lower hash rates ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=319419.100), suggesting either assembly issues or marginal chips. Similar issues are reported on the other Bitfury thread ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=287590.0) (multiple chips per board). Weeding out the 'duds' now might save aggravation/disappointment later... |
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"Governments are good at cutting off the heads of a centrally
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beavertank
Member
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Activity: 94
Merit: 10
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November 06, 2013, 07:49:50 AM |
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When the masses start pouring in, this is going over 1000, no doubt about it.
...and difficulty is going to plateau at or around 2 billion, or so a line of popular wisdom goes... The problem is, that sort of speculation is just that, speculation. There are no clear, solid facts to back up the assumptions people are making, but a lot of people are happy to grab onto them because they want them to be true. I've been doing a few, fairly basic, calculations based on those assumptions to see where even rosy assumptions leave us and basically what I've come to is this: If difficulty continues to rise at approximately 30% per difficulty change (an optimistically, but not impossibly, low rate) we'll be at 2 billion difficulty right around New Years. Without additional delays, and assuming what I will call the best-case scenario of 2.5gh/s per chip and a difficulty plateau, the price per BTC would have to go to about $635 for us to break even. Assuming the best-case speed scenario without a difficulty plateau, the price per BTC would have to go to just about $825 for us to break even. Assuming the pessimistic-case scenario of 2gh/s per chip, the price per BTC with difficulty plateau would have to be around $800, and without a plateau would have to be just over $1k. Obviously we're all hoping for 2.7gh/s per chip, or better, but even then the numbers aren't significantly better... unless the "to the moon!" price predictions pan out in the reasonably near future. Now, none of this is barntech's fault, and none of it makes me any less eager to get my hands on these boards and start mining away with them, but it does temper my enthusiasm somewhat and also makes one lesson abundantly clear: Whatever amount of coins you mine, hold onto them until the value rises significantly (assuming it does). It's the only way to make any kind of a profit. |
Did I help you out, or otherwise say something useful? A handful of satoshis are a great way to say thanks! - Address: 18JUKdmE1Satf8HJUU3pf7iu5ymQX8AzER
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Its About Sharing
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
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November 06, 2013, 06:53:23 PM |
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When the masses start pouring in, this is going over 1000, no doubt about it.
...and difficulty is going to plateau at or around 2 billion, or so a line of popular wisdom goes... The problem is, that sort of speculation is just that, speculation. There are no clear, solid facts to back up the assumptions people are making, but a lot of people are happy to grab onto them because they want them to be true.I've been doing a few, fairly basic, calculations based on those assumptions to see where even rosy assumptions leave us and basically what I've come to is this: If difficulty continues to rise at approximately 30% per difficulty change (an optimistically, but not impossibly, low rate) we'll be at 2 billion difficulty right around New Years. Without additional delays, and assuming what I will call the best-case scenario of 2.5gh/s per chip and a difficulty plateau, the price per BTC would have to go to about $635 for us to break even. Assuming the best-case speed scenario without a difficulty plateau, the price per BTC would have to go to just about $825 for us to break even. Assuming the pessimistic-case scenario of 2gh/s per chip, the price per BTC with difficulty plateau would have to be around $800, and without a plateau would have to be just over $1k. Obviously we're all hoping for 2.7gh/s per chip, or better, but even then the numbers aren't significantly better... unless the "to the moon!" price predictions pan out in the reasonably near future. Now, none of this is barntech's fault, and none of it makes me any less eager to get my hands on these boards and start mining away with them, but it does temper my enthusiasm somewhat and also makes one lesson abundantly clear: Whatever amount of coins you mine, hold onto them until the value rises significantly (assuming it does). It's the only way to make any kind of a profit. Thanks for your research regarding the break even points. I believe Barntech said a few pages back that we should be able to run these near 2.5 but higher than that will require special cooling. My calculations showed a 400-500 dollar BTC price to break even. I used a few miner projection sites and averaged it. The hard thing, is the difficulty. I think at least through the next few months we will see steady growth. I mean that has been happening, not crazy to think it continues short term. But, regarding your bolded comment above. Speculation based on math, well, I guess it is still speculation but it is a fair statement to make. And throw into that "speculation" economics and stock trading, which I have studied for years. And there are many other variables to throw in. So, you can "throw" your speculation word out there, but don't let the word fool you. My projections are based on a variety of factors, including (but not limited to): TA - I use Gann for price predictions and it has been very reliable for me. It shows me, conservatively, a price of 600-700 next year. Some of my charts show 1000. It is subjective but still pretty reliable within ranges. Economics - I've studied banking for years. The system is breaking down and they are doing everything they can to slow it down. They are implementing stricter and stricter capital controls on money movement. They are suppressing the price of gold/silver with puts and the "physical leasing" of gold to help ease up on the short supply. They want the dollar to "appear strong". That is enough, it is all a game of belief. (Money in general). They are inflating the money supply at a rate that can't be stopped. If they try they won't be able even pay on the debt. No going back. I can go on here, but the ponzi scheme known as the US Dollar is falling apart.
BTC introduces a new form of a 3rd party entity into banking, that replaces the bank for the most part. (Not the lending). It uses code for verification and not an expensive, slow, institution. It is money based on cryptographically secure mathematics acting as a legal 3rd parts (in a very real sense.) Countries are buying up BTC now. China is huge, I called this move TO THE DAY weeks ago. I think I shared that with Barntech around when it happened via email. The day the Baidu announcement was made, that was the Chinese government saying "It is on against the US Dollar." Actually, you can go back farther to the 90 minute CCTC (National Chinese Station - Propaganda network) BTC special as another silent approval from the government. India, another lover of gold, will get involved next year or sooner is my bet. Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies) are anti-fragile disruptive technologies that don't come along very often. It is a black swan. It attacks one of the main control mechanisms of the elite. Information/communication is one (enter internet to cause havoc). Finance/banking is the other. To talk of how big this is. I can't put it in words. It is end game big, or at least it leads us to that. There will be a fight imo coming up. But the "elite" are on their heels. And unfortunately, they will do anything and everything to stay in power. I hate to think their. The list goes on, but there is a start. "Smorgasbord" - In line with the last point, BTC is like nothing ever before, financially speaking. It is a Stock in a sense (you own a virtual piece of the network), an asset (Right now it is primarily this), a currency, a payment system, a protocol (try making that illegal), etc. So, when we talk of speculation, again, it is a word. This is game changing and to treat it like a stock, it is like treating a nuclear bomb like a handgun. Most people, as with the internet, they just can't see it. Welcome our Black Swan... IAS ps - Bookmark this. Taunt me in two years if I'm wrong. Of course BTC can fail via some things out of our control. But if it isn't made illegal, or if there isn't an EMP blast, etc. it is going to the moon. |
BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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rocks
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1153
Merit: 1000
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November 06, 2013, 08:04:46 PM |
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When the masses start pouring in, this is going over 1000, no doubt about it.
...and difficulty is going to plateau at or around 2 billion, or so a line of popular wisdom goes... The problem is, that sort of speculation is just that, speculation. There are no clear, solid facts to back up the assumptions people are making, but a lot of people are happy to grab onto them because they want them to be true. I agree that BTC price is pure speculation as it depends so much on the demand side of the equation (supply is known) and we just can not predict how demand will evolve. However difficulty I believe we can predict. My expectation is simply that ASIC demand and thus difficulty will plateau when mining revenue equals electricity costs, and this can be modeled with some accuracy. If you make the following assumptions: 1) Efficient ASIC hashing is roughly 0.8W/Gh which seems to be most efficient point so far 2) BTC equals $200 3) Electricity costs $0.15/kW With these assumptions, I calculated that difficulty should plateau around 50 billion. (please check) You can adjust the final difficulty number by changing your assumptions. If ASIC efficiency doubles to 0.4W/Gh then difficulty doubles, if BTC rises to $400 then difficulty doubles, if electricity costs $0.075/kW then difficulty doubles. In the end I think both ASIC efficiency and electricity costs will be stable assumptions, in that case then difficulty will rise and fall linearly with BTC price. (Of course that assumes miners will turn off ASIC which may not be the case) |
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Micky25
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 974
Merit: 1000
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November 06, 2013, 08:29:38 PM |
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very interesting calculation.
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erk
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November 06, 2013, 08:56:13 PM |
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When the masses start pouring in, this is going over 1000, no doubt about it.
...and difficulty is going to plateau at or around 2 billion, or so a line of popular wisdom goes... The problem is, that sort of speculation is just that, speculation. There are no clear, solid facts to back up the assumptions people are making, but a lot of people are happy to grab onto them because they want them to be true. I've been doing a few, fairly basic, calculations based on those assumptions to see where even rosy assumptions leave us and basically what I've come to is this: If difficulty continues to rise at approximately 30% per difficulty change (an optimistically, but not impossibly, low rate) we'll be at 2 billion difficulty right around New Years. Without additional delays, and assuming what I will call the best-case scenario of 2.5gh/s per chip and a difficulty plateau, the price per BTC would have to go to about $635 for us to break even. Assuming the best-case speed scenario without a difficulty plateau, the price per BTC would have to go to just about $825 for us to break even. Assuming the pessimistic-case scenario of 2gh/s per chip, the price per BTC with difficulty plateau would have to be around $800, and without a plateau would have to be just over $1k. Obviously we're all hoping for 2.7gh/s per chip, or better, but even then the numbers aren't significantly better... unless the "to the moon!" price predictions pan out in the reasonably near future. Now, none of this is barntech's fault, and none of it makes me any less eager to get my hands on these boards and start mining away with them, but it does temper my enthusiasm somewhat and also makes one lesson abundantly clear: Whatever amount of coins you mine, hold onto them until the value rises significantly (assuming it does). It's the only way to make any kind of a profit. Don't assume more GH/s from driving a chip harder is better. I undervolt/underclock my 7970 GPU so it's only doing 490kH/s on scrypt coins, as that's the point where the best $ profit per day happens, the card is well capable of going over 700kH/s but using almost twice the power. The same goes for ASICs there is always a sweet spot. It's just when electricity eats only a small part of the running cost people tend not to care, but this quickly flips around to being the most important issue for long term ROI. That's why a lot of the big mining farms are going to be forced to close down, once you add 50% more electricity cost to cover aircon, and whatever additional data center costs like paying staff, their long term business model rapidly falls apart. |
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bronan
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November 07, 2013, 02:34:54 AM |
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well i agree fully on your statement erk.
I have to deal with 0.32 so for me its not pretty to run all full speed constant.
When i mined with my gpu's i went for low power usage (underclocking and undervoltage) which made it suddenly profitable for me
Thats also why i now only would buy any hardware if its capable of running in different power usage modes
So i can choose what gives me the best result, ie turbo, fast , normal and power saving would be the best for anyone and would give them a long timespan of being capable to produce coins even if the difficulty kills the profit by a small margin
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Barntech (OP)
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November 07, 2013, 05:29:01 AM |
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Interesting as always IAS. We are indeed living through very exciting times. Who knows what's going to happen with BTC, but i hope you're right and Bitcoin grows large enough to potentially displace the corrupt money systems currently used to enslave huge swathes of the population for the benefit of the monied elite who created them. It is truly exciting to be here for the birth of this and be a part of it. I can't wait to see what happens next. Though our chances of ROI are now pretty slim, for me it is more about the excitement of being part of it, and the fact that an explosion in price may also cause this whole thing to be an actually fruitful investment is kind of an awesome bonus. If IAS is right and we see BTC prices up around $1000, then we will be laughing. As for the overclocking thing, and the general future of mining, yes it will be all about the electricty costs. Unfortunately here in Australia electricity is very expensive, so this will be a difficult struggle. As mentioned from the outset of this project, the sweet spot for power efficiency is around 2GH/s per chip. This will be the sensible setting if you are looking to balance mining profits and electricity costs. Personally i will probably overclock for a while and take the hit just because i find it exciting (this coming from someone who just turned off their GPUs about a month ago  ), but eventually i will bring it down to something more reasonable. Another thing i have been thinking a lot about is solar panels, because once you are no longer paying for power, then you can run your miner forever and it will always make you something, even if it is tiny, and at the end of the day, you have free power even when you decide to turn your miner off. We have actually talked about building a miner which comes built into a solar panel, communicates via wifi and just mines away forever. Would be pretty cool.  I sat and watched today as Bitcoin hit a new all time high. I shivered a little. It does seem to be on an upwards rampage and i wish it all the best for the ascent. We will all have our miners soon and begin to feel the direct benefits of this rise. May it continue healthy and strong. Barntech |
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Zeek_W
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November 07, 2013, 05:58:30 AM |
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Interesting as always IAS. We are indeed living through very exciting times. Who knows what's going to happen with BTC, but i hope you're right and Bitcoin grows large enough to potentially displace the corrupt money systems currently used to enslave huge swathes of the population for the benefit of the monied elite who created them. It is truly exciting to be here for the birth of this and be a part of it. I can't wait to see what happens next. Though our chances of ROI are now pretty slim, for me it is more about the excitement of being part of it, and the fact that an explosion in price may also cause this whole thing to be an actually fruitful investment is kind of an awesome bonus. If IAS is right and we see BTC prices up around $1000, then we will be laughing. As for the overclocking thing, and the general future of mining, yes it will be all about the electricty costs. Unfortunately here in Australia electricity is very expensive, so this will be a difficult struggle. As mentioned from the outset of this project, the sweet spot for power efficiency is around 2GH/s per chip. This will be the sensible setting if you are looking to balance mining profits and electricity costs. Personally i will probably overclock for a while and take the hit just because i find it exciting (this coming from someone who just turned off their GPUs about a month ago ), but eventually i will bring it down to something more reasonable. Another thing i have been thinking a lot about is solar panels, because once you are no longer paying for power, then you can run your miner forever and it will always make you something, even if it is tiny, and at the end of the day, you have free power even when you decide to turn your miner off. We have actually talked about building a miner which comes built into a solar panel, communicates via wifi and just mines away forever. Would be pretty cool. I sat and watched today as Bitcoin hit a new all time high. I shivered a little. It does seem to be on an upwards rampage and i wish it all the best for the ascent. We will all have our miners soon and begin to feel the direct benefits of this rise. May it continue healthy and strong. Barntech Any update? |
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tel
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November 07, 2013, 07:47:50 PM |
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Hi guys,
Could you please tell me which components are included from drillbitsystem and which not?
I know that PSU is not incuded.
What else should I buy (fans, connectors, cables etc)
Thank you in advance!
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lajz99
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November 07, 2013, 10:44:02 PM |
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Hi guys,
Could you please tell me which components are included from drillbitsystem and which not?
I know that PSU is not incuded.
What else should I buy (fans, connectors, cables etc)
Thank you in advance!
You'll definitely need a PSU and should have a fan. USB cable will be included. Someone else should be able to comment on what you'll need cable-wise for power. |
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techman05
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November 07, 2013, 11:25:34 PM |
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Connection is dependent on if your using the backplane or single. Single uses 4 pin polex while the planes uses 6 pin pci express plugs. Either connection needs a way to turn it on from atx plug
Is that you needed? Anything more than that chime in on drillbitsystem.com/forum . theres a bunch there to peer through.
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tel
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November 08, 2013, 05:00:44 AM |
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Hi,
Thank you for the information.
Maybe one fan will be insufficient, so I must buy 3 fans.
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guyver
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November 08, 2013, 10:06:23 PM |
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Barntech
When will you be planning on
Shipping these bad boys out
Thanks
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techman05
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November 08, 2013, 11:32:11 PM |
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As soon as barntech gets thier chips?
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lajz99
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November 08, 2013, 11:38:35 PM |
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We need Atmel brains!
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Skriglitz
Member
Offline
Activity: 61
Merit: 10
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November 09, 2013, 12:04:46 AM |
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We need Atmel brains!
And MOAR COWBELL!!!! Just kidding. But yeah we need them.. If only the one chip I have was the ATMega32U4 instead of ATMega328P, I'd donate my chip... |
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techman05
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November 09, 2013, 12:13:57 AM |
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They could probably make it work with whatever , it would just mean a crapload of code to make it work. I'd just hope usb 3.0 would have been used if it helped get over whatever bus issues that don't let it do its full capabilities.
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pyra-proxy
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November 09, 2013, 02:31:25 AM |
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Has there been any updates to the shipping timetable? I'm recently BFL free (except a monarch pre-order.....) and onto bitfury based replacements :-) so hoping my mining does not have a huge down time :-)
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Zeek_W
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November 09, 2013, 02:48:19 AM |
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Has there been any updates to the shipping timetable? I'm recently BFL free (except a monarch pre-order.....) and onto bitfury based replacements :-) so hoping my mining does not have a huge down time :-)
Yeah I would like an update too. I'm almost thinking of bailing. |
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