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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919113 times)
N12
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February 16, 2014, 03:37:28 PM
 #1401

266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Good point. Do we know that it was NOT the result of a liquidation (I heard btc-e offers leverage) or a hacked account? I would take it much more seriously then.
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February 16, 2014, 03:38:39 PM
 #1402

266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Good point. Do we know that it was NOT the result of a liquidation (I heard btc-e offers leverage) or a hacked account? I would take it much more seriously then.

Just looking at the chart tells you that was a freak straight off!

                                                                               
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February 16, 2014, 03:42:03 PM
 #1403

266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Good point. Do we know that it was NOT the result of a liquidation (I heard btc-e offers leverage) or a hacked account? I would take it much more seriously then.

Just looking at the chart tells you that was a freak straight off!
Still doesn't tell me whether it was a "voluntary" = conscious sell or not.
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February 16, 2014, 03:50:44 PM
 #1404

266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Good point. Do we know that it was NOT the result of a liquidation (I heard btc-e offers leverage) or a hacked account? I would take it much more seriously then.

I think it was a cascade of forced liquidation trough the MT4 platform.
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February 16, 2014, 04:55:47 PM
 #1405

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

Quote from: masterluc
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap

Official bears taking the Gox price and a forced liquidation price in a illiquid market seriously. You can't get more contrarian signs than that.
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February 17, 2014, 01:20:37 PM
 #1406

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

Quote from: masterluc
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap

Official bears taking the Gox price and a forced liquidation price in a illiquid market seriously. You can't get more contrarian signs than that.

+1
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February 17, 2014, 01:43:12 PM
 #1407

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

Quote from: masterluc
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap

Official bears taking the Gox price and a forced liquidation price in a illiquid market seriously. You can't get more contrarian signs than that.

Hmm I do agree, which is a shame as I think there is a lot of good discussion in this thread. Forgetting about the btce incident and the Gox mess, there are still a lot of TA signs pointing to a continued bear market.
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February 17, 2014, 02:50:34 PM
 #1408

Don´t forget Bitfinex(100$), so far 3 out of 4(5) exchanges, wen´t down hard.
If the bitfinex book had been connected to Bitstamp at that time, we might have seen 2-400$ Bitcoins over there too.

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February 17, 2014, 03:44:32 PM
 #1409

I see some signs of short term reversal (my last pic above plus this one). Of course price performance on mtgox is more than disturbing. So be cautious.


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February 17, 2014, 07:50:59 PM
 #1410


2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.

First:



Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda.

My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence.

Then again:



It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction.

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February 17, 2014, 08:20:02 PM
 #1411


2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.

First:



Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda.

My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence.

Then again:



It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction.

These are pretty much my thoughts exactly. However, I do think we are destined to test the 200 SMA on Bitstamp. It sits just over $450 today and will be at $500 within a couple of weeks and $550 in 4-5 weeks or so. So, while I think that long term trendline might tell us something about where we are going in the future, I think we probably break down below it for at least a little bit, unless Stamp can fend off a flash crash over the next 4-5 weeks.
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February 18, 2014, 07:56:16 AM
 #1412


2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.

First:



Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda.

My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence.

Then again:



It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction.

These are pretty much my thoughts exactly. However, I do think we are destined to test the 200 SMA on Bitstamp. It sits just over $450 today and will be at $500 within a couple of weeks and $550 in 4-5 weeks or so. So, while I think that long term trendline might tell us something about where we are going in the future, I think we probably break down below it for at least a little bit, unless Stamp can fend off a flash crash over the next 4-5 weeks.

I would be very surprised to see a daily close below 550 on stamp. I agree we could stagnate close here for a little while until we come in contact with the SMA 200 however.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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February 19, 2014, 04:30:31 PM
 #1413

I can't shake the feeling that we're getting nearer to the end of the consolidation/bear market, but on the other hand it looks to me like we might have a re-test of 600 ahead of us.



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February 19, 2014, 05:48:09 PM
 #1414

New Data just in:


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February 19, 2014, 06:56:57 PM
 #1415

New Data just in:



I will see your squiggly lines and raise you

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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February 20, 2014, 07:36:50 AM
 #1416

i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it



info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp


have a nice day Smiley



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Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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February 20, 2014, 07:50:08 AM
 #1417

Yeah, total fuck )) No money from feds, traders withdraw money from weak markets first.

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February 20, 2014, 07:59:35 AM
 #1418

Yeah, total fuck )) No money from feds, traders withdraw money from weak markets first.

Guess everyone can stop using GOX charts now. lol

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February 20, 2014, 08:39:11 AM
 #1419

Why are we even talking about gox prices still? They don't trade the same currency pair anymore.

The question is, if, or to what extent the other markets will follow. So far I'm pretty surprised by the resilience of stamp price. I still don't see 600 last, tbh.

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February 20, 2014, 08:46:37 AM
 #1420

Why are we even talking about gox prices still? They don't trade the same currency pair anymore.

The question is, if, or to what extent the other markets will follow. So far I'm pretty surprised by the resilience of stamp price. I still don't see 600 last, tbh.

The answer is in your post. You are surprised that stamp is not following gox? If yes, then that means that you give gox price much authority.
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