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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939933 times)
oda.krell
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February 20, 2014, 11:44:26 AM
 #1401

Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume.
(BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).

Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.

Sure. Both valid points.

But do you really think the rest of the btc world will remain completely calm as the former leading exchange tumbles into the abyss.

Gox' failure is partly priced in already, sure, but I don't see gox going to sub-100 coins while the rest of the world stays at 600+. Something needs to give, and if gox doesn't go up, the others will go down, to some degree.

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February 20, 2014, 11:49:24 AM
 #1402

Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume.
(BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).

Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.

Sure. Both valid points.

But do you really think the rest of the btc world will remain completely calm as the former leading exchange tumbles into the abyss.

Gox' failure is partly priced in already, sure, but I don't see gox going to sub-100 coins while the rest of the world stays at 600+. Something needs to give, and if gox doesn't go up, the others will go down, to some degree.

I don't think it's the Gox price that is directly effecting other exchanges as such, it's the Gox shambles in general causing panic and lack of confidence in btc across the board. And the worse the Gox situation gets, the worse the panicking. Sure many of us here started selling when it was becomming clear what was happening. The lack of any headline positive news for bitcoin in recent weeks hasn't helped.
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February 20, 2014, 11:55:25 AM
 #1403

Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume.
(BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).

Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.

Sure. Both valid points.

But do you really think the rest of the btc world will remain completely calm as the former leading exchange tumbles into the abyss.

Gox' failure is partly priced in already, sure, but I don't see gox going to sub-100 coins while the rest of the world stays at 600+. Something needs to give, and if gox doesn't go up, the others will go down, to some degree.

Yes, I agree.
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February 20, 2014, 11:58:43 AM
 #1404

Why are we even talking about gox prices still? They don't trade the same currency pair anymore.

The question is, if, or to what extent the other markets will follow. So far I'm pretty surprised by the resilience of stamp price. I still don't see 600 last, tbh.

The answer is in your post. You are surprised that stamp is not following gox? If yes, then that means that you give gox price much authority.

That's a bit of a selective interpretation of what I wrote. I meant, we don't need to talk much about, as in: analyze gox price anymore. It's more or less approaching zero.

However, I didn't say gox price doesn't *matter* anymore. It does matter, although maybe less than I thought, hence: bitstamp still stable.

It's enough to point it how low it is, and then do the detail work on other exchanges to see where we're going, and more importantly, if (and how much) the gox price action is picked up on other exchanges.

EDIT: paraphrased to make my point more clear


Yes, sorry. I didn't want to misinterpreted your post. Your point is that analyzing gox data is not productive or relevant. I get this. I wanted to generalize. Gox is not some tiny unknown exchange. It is still important factor.
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February 20, 2014, 12:07:21 PM
 #1405

Look at the USD volume (that's what matters), and see that Stamp has higher Volume.
(BTC volume is obviously higher because of the insane low prices).

Also the pure panic inside fort gox causes alot of volume.

Sure. Both valid points.

But do you really think the rest of the btc world will remain completely calm as the former leading exchange tumbles into the abyss.

Gox' failure is partly priced in already, sure, but I don't see gox going to sub-100 coins while the rest of the world stays at 600+. Something needs to give, and if gox doesn't go up, the others will go down, to some degree.
I have said this in another thread, but I'll give my input here as well: I think the major effect of Gox dying will be in the public trust of the exchange ecosystem. A lot of people have been living in the dream that they (like banks or whatever) are infallible and your coins can be trusted with them. If even the previously biggest player Gox can go down and take people's fund with them, it is only natural that it will fuel distrust in the rest of the exchanges.

The best way for Gox to go at this point would be a slow death with people somehow getting their money out as it approaches 0. This would reinforce the idea that exchanges at least have some semblance of credibility, even if it does not always appear so. That said, the entire circus going on right now will still have damaged the reputability of exchanges in the public's eyes.
However, if Gox were to suddenly declare bankruptcy and make it official that any money left in there is forfeit, that might just be the major push for a long-term transition towards decentralized peer-to-peer alternatives rather than reliance on central exchanges.

Also, on the matter of analyzing Gox prices, for me it's just a thing of curiosity to see in what way the little TA I know still applies to a clearly dying market Smiley

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February 20, 2014, 12:10:40 PM
 #1406

I have said this in another thread, but I'll give my input here as well: I think the major effect of Gox dying will be in the public trust of the exchange ecosystem. A lot of people have been living in the dream that they (like banks or whatever) are infallible and your coins can be trusted with them. If even the previously biggest player Gox can go down and take people's fund with them, it is only natural that it will fuel distrust in the rest of the exchanges.

The best way for Gox to go at this point would be a slow death with people somehow getting their money out as it approaches 0. This would reinforce the idea that exchanges at least have some semblance of credibility, even if it does not always appear so. That said, the entire circus going on right now will still have damaged the reputability of exchanges in the public's eyes.
However, if Gox were to suddenly declare bankruptcy and make it official that any money left in there is forfeit, that might just be the major push for a long-term transition towards decentralized peer-to-peer alternatives rather than reliance on central exchanges.

Also, on the matter of analyzing Gox prices, for me it's just a thing of curiosity to see in what way the little TA I know still applies to a clearly dying market Smiley

We need gox to die, or become irrelevent (even more so than it is now), and a Solid US Exchange. I think these ingredients can set us op for the next "bubble".
oda.krell
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February 20, 2014, 01:49:22 PM
 #1407

Why are we even talking about gox prices still? They don't trade the same currency pair anymore.

The question is, if, or to what extent the other markets will follow. So far I'm pretty surprised by the resilience of stamp price. I still don't see 600 last, tbh.

The answer is in your post. You are surprised that stamp is not following gox? If yes, then that means that you give gox price much authority.

That's a bit of a selective interpretation of what I wrote. I meant, we don't need to talk much about, as in: analyze gox price anymore. It's more or less approaching zero.

However, I didn't say gox price doesn't *matter* anymore. It does matter, although maybe less than I thought, hence: bitstamp still stable.

It's enough to point it how low it is, and then do the detail work on other exchanges to see where we're going, and more importantly, if (and how much) the gox price action is picked up on other exchanges.

EDIT: paraphrased to make my point more clear


Yes, sorry. I didn't want to misinterpreted your post. Your point is that analyzing gox data is not productive or relevant. I get this. I wanted to generalize. Gox is not some tiny unknown exchange. It is still important factor.

Re-read my original post, and I have to apologize. I phrased it very misleadingly, and your interpretation was actually the more likely one. Sorry :/

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February 23, 2014, 12:03:09 PM
 #1408

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44512.html what a delightful thing to read

If you meant "delightfully retarded", sure :D

Quote
A bitcoin is worthless because it is backed by nothing, for a virtual currency to have value it must be backed by something, anything physical be it land, property, precious metals, or even the quantity of water in a fresh water reservoir, it MUST be backed by SOMETHING REAL! Else it is WORTHLESS! At least fiat currency is backed by tax payers.

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February 23, 2014, 12:41:56 PM
 #1409

Let's give some predictions for the price in a week of time on gox, I go first : 43$; price on btc-e : 390$

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February 24, 2014, 12:04:11 PM
 #1410

Seems to me a drop to SMA200 on Stamp is getting more likely. Support line of the triangle has been slightly pierced, price is persistently staying there and the candles are getting more squeezed. Given the insignificant distance I suspect a downwards breakout would carry enough momentum to at least short term pierce SMA200 as well, possibly towards bottom or close to it as a repeat of April post-crash patterns.

Would love if some more competent analyst could confirm with actual TA and not just this nonsense Cheesy

edit: Pic for clearer conveyance of meaning


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February 24, 2014, 04:06:28 PM
 #1411

Seems to me a drop to SMA200 on Stamp is getting more likely. Support line of the triangle has been slightly pierced, price is persistently staying there and the candles are getting more squeezed. Given the insignificant distance I suspect a downwards breakout would carry enough momentum to at least short term pierce SMA200 as well, possibly towards bottom or close to it as a repeat of April post-crash patterns.

Would love if some more competent analyst could confirm with actual TA and not just this nonsense Cheesy

edit: Pic for clearer conveyance of meaning



How high is SMA200 this week? 450USD/BTC?

EDIT: Sorry, wrote reply before charts were visible.
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February 24, 2014, 07:34:32 PM
 #1412

This bullish continuation triangle on bitstamp looks less and less vital


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February 24, 2014, 07:55:59 PM
 #1413

Get your cheap coins while it is down here. May go lower in next few weeks but don't expect $100 prices to ever come again for any meaningful amount of time.

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February 24, 2014, 08:08:28 PM
 #1414

I don't know whether gox opened btc outstream or not. But if it will open, all cheap coins (bought with $100+) will arrive into other exchanges where price is much higher. Think about it.

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February 24, 2014, 08:17:27 PM
 #1415

I don't know whether gox opened btc outstream or not. But if it will open, all cheap coins (bought with $100+) will arrive into other exchanges where price is much higher. Think about it.

Sure some will, but not all. Most of these people are now realizing how risky it is to leave money on exchanges and learning their lesson so many will also be going to cold storage.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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February 24, 2014, 08:20:58 PM
 #1416

Depends who was buying them. If people who just care to take fast fiat profit are, then they'll dump.

I'd probably sell some at 400-500% profit but I'd surely keep some of those 100$ coins.

.
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February 24, 2014, 10:40:39 PM
 #1417

I don't know whether gox opened btc outstream or not. But if it will open, all cheap coins (bought with $100+) will arrive into other exchanges where price is much higher. Think about it.

Sure some will, but not all. Most of these people are now realizing how risky it is to leave money on exchanges and learning their lesson so many will also be going to cold storage.

I think it will be a wash.

Bitcoin being deflationary means the price over months and years is destined to go up even if in the short term we are going down.

Bitcoins on sale! Just remember we started the month at above $800 now we are in the mid to low $500 area.


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February 24, 2014, 10:50:42 PM
 #1418

I don't know whether gox opened btc outstream or not. But if it will open, all cheap coins (bought with $100+) will arrive into other exchanges where price is much higher. Think about it.

Sure some will, but not all. Most of these people are now realizing how risky it is to leave money on exchanges and learning their lesson so many will also be going to cold storage.

I think it will be a wash.

Bitcoin being deflationary means the price over months and years is destined to go up even if in the short term we are going down.

Bitcoins on sale! Just remember we started the month at above $800 now we are in the mid to low $500 area.



There is more and more bitcoins in circulation everyday so it is inflationary but there is more and more people that adopt it so I also think that the price will go straight up again at some point in the next 10months

Everything is suppose to be fine in Europe and in the States, it is suppose to be a recovery; when everyone understand there is no recovery and when Janet Yellen will declares QE infinity, the Dollar will plunge and Bitcoin will rise; tens of thousands are not out of the question in recent future

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February 25, 2014, 12:12:13 AM
 #1419

Get your cheap coins while it is down here. May go lower in next few weeks but don't expect $100 prices to ever come again for any meaningful amount of time.

maybe 200$ cheap coins?? Grin

that would just work so fine for me (and a lot of people i presume) Cheesy
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February 25, 2014, 07:27:35 PM
 #1420

maybe 200$ cheap coins?? Grin

that would just work so fine for me (and a lot of people i presume) Cheesy
According to my nooby historic comparative analysis $400 should be the local bottom/end of wave C. But then again I'm surprised (and a tad bit disappointed) it only stayed there for such a short amount of time. Perhaps a revisit and even breaking lower is possible if this retrace is seen as subwave 2/3?

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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