Bitcoin Forum
January 24, 2022, 03:30:02 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 22.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 ... 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 [73] 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 ... 336 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939931 times)
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
March 29, 2014, 08:59:03 PM
 #1441

it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend Wink

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo

Interestingly enough, the Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist TA book has a (smallish) section on empirical studies that were done about patterns. I'll have to look up the details, but the continuation patterns flag and pennant seemed by far the most reliable ones *however* they were (IIRC) all short to midterm patterns, i.e. way shorter duration than what was proposed above (spanning from December to now).

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
1642995002
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1642995002

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1642995002
Reply with quote  #2

1642995002
Report to moderator
1642995002
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1642995002

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1642995002
Reply with quote  #2

1642995002
Report to moderator
1642995002
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1642995002

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1642995002
Reply with quote  #2

1642995002
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
g4c
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 98
Merit: 10


View Profile WWW
March 29, 2014, 09:05:39 PM
 #1442

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

CORTEX7 Multi exchange Bitcoin trading client for Win, Mac, Nix, Android.
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448
Merit: 250


this statement is false


View Profile
March 29, 2014, 09:09:34 PM
 #1443

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448
Merit: 250


this statement is false


View Profile
March 29, 2014, 09:11:42 PM
 #1444

it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend Wink

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo

Interestingly enough, the Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist TA book has a (smallish) section on empirical studies that were done about patterns. I'll have to look up the details, but the continuation patterns flag and pennant seemed by far the most reliable ones *however* they were (IIRC) all short to midterm patterns, i.e. way shorter duration than what was proposed above (spanning from December to now).

thanks for the reference. is this the book you're talking about?

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
g4c
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 98
Merit: 10


View Profile WWW
March 29, 2014, 09:22:34 PM
 #1445

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
...
Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount.

It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much.

CORTEX7 Multi exchange Bitcoin trading client for Win, Mac, Nix, Android.
arepo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 448
Merit: 250


this statement is false


View Profile
March 29, 2014, 09:28:29 PM
 #1446

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
...
Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount.

It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much.

falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified.

in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
windjc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070


View Profile
March 29, 2014, 09:32:45 PM
 #1447

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
...
Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount.

It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much.

falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified.

in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified.

Technically, I disagree. You can see the April triangle spent some time below the lower line, but this did not invalidate the data. I think it would need to break down and then the triangle would have to become resistance before this was invalidated.
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
March 29, 2014, 09:47:11 PM
 #1448

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

Because you can have independent, i.e. fundamental reasons to believe the long term log uptrend for BTC will continue to hold, but that assumption is should probably not be based on observing a pattern 4 times and concluding it will hold a 5th time. That's simply not enough of a sample size.


@arepo: yes, that's the book. The results are due to some author named Bulkowski, but the way it looks it isn't really an academic study. Still, the Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist is a great book, in case you're wondering.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
g4c
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 98
Merit: 10


View Profile WWW
March 29, 2014, 10:30:05 PM
Last edit: March 29, 2014, 10:53:24 PM by g4c
 #1449

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
...
Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount.

It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much.

falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified.

in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified.

So far as I understand, pennants are pairs of trendlines allowing one to form a binary decision.

Admittedly the fact they are drawn with a hard boundary does not suggest this.

The call as to when the price breaks outside of the pennant is left to the person analysing.

The majority of pennants that get charted tend to have a few excursions in them as the chartist creates them:



If one were to sample the opinion of many technical analysts, their call on "falsification" will be a fuzzy spread around the pennant.



CORTEX7 Multi exchange Bitcoin trading client for Win, Mac, Nix, Android.
g4c
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 98
Merit: 10


View Profile WWW
March 29, 2014, 10:48:27 PM
 #1450

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

Because you can have independent, i.e. fundamental reasons to believe the long term log uptrend for BTC will continue to hold, but that assumption is should probably not be based on observing a pattern 4 times and concluding it will hold a 5th time. That's simply not enough of a sample size.
...

Just to note, I'm not concluding anything.

I would think that a sample size of 4 is statistically very significant when the full set is 4 or 5.



CORTEX7 Multi exchange Bitcoin trading client for Win, Mac, Nix, Android.
igorr
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 250


View Profile
March 30, 2014, 03:24:03 PM
 #1451




Cлaвьcя, Oтeчecтвo нaшe cвoбoднoe,
Бpaтcкиx нapoдoв coюз вeкoвoй,
Пpeдкaми дaннaя мyдpocть нapoднaя!
Cлaвьcя, cтpaнa! Mы гopдимcя тoбoй!
odin.dillinger
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 43
Merit: 0


View Profile
March 31, 2014, 10:51:40 AM
 #1452

God damn, I wish my itchy trigger fingers would have listened more to Master Luc(all hail). Seems like this dude is calling it correctly every single time.

Hats off and thumbs up to you.

Now, back to those TA books.

btw, can you reccomend some reading material for understanding this stuff better?

Thanks.
masterluc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 1013



View Profile
March 31, 2014, 10:56:30 AM
 #1453

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture


myself
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 1000


chaos is fun...…damental :)


View Profile
April 03, 2014, 03:54:36 AM
 #1454

@masterluc some trivia btcusd never went under weekly lower BB band if wee get under 400 wee make history

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
myself
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 1000


chaos is fun...…damental :)


View Profile
April 12, 2014, 05:09:23 AM
 #1455

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture


solved

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
lebing
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration


View Profile
April 12, 2014, 05:18:43 AM
 #1456

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture


solved

nope.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
Queeq
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 426
Merit: 250



View Profile
April 12, 2014, 08:33:07 AM
 #1457

What about this scenario? Critics are welcome.



Graph itself: https://www.tradingview.com/e/1QcTgU9a/

Python backtesting and bot script at Github
Development halted due to other priorities.
lebing
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration


View Profile
April 12, 2014, 01:34:58 PM
 #1458

What about this scenario? Critics are welcome.



Graph itself: https://www.tradingview.com/e/1QcTgU9a/

looks pretty solid to me.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
April 12, 2014, 02:50:02 PM
 #1459

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture
solved

nope.

How? It's a triangle. It broke to the downside. That means it's solved. What that means for further price action is another question, but at least in the immediate aftermath of the downwards breakout, we saw a new low, so waiting for the triangle to resolve was the right choice.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
rudius
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 84
Merit: 10


View Profile
April 12, 2014, 03:14:50 PM
 #1460

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture
solved

nope.

How? It's a triangle. It broke to the downside. That means it's solved. What that means for further price action is another question, but at least in the immediate aftermath of the downwards breakout, we saw a new low, so waiting for the triangle to resolve was the right choice.

we had a huge rejection of the downside of the triangle with volume. Sometimes there are false breakouts and retests. there are no such things as certainty.

Actually, i think we will have an exit to the upside. The test of sub 400 was market manipulation to shake off weaks hands but not by the chinese as everybody think. BTC-E was a big leader to the downside. ( just my thoughts, again no such things as certainty Wink )
Pages: « 1 ... 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 [73] 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 ... 336 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!