rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[americanpegasus]

Who was it that recently said that when bitcoin started, there was a lot of rampant price speculation and libertarian themes, but people were predominantly excited about the technology?  
  
The technology has to be exciting and innovative (and uniquely first to establish first-to-market-dominance) or else people will just move on to the next flash in the pan.  
  
There were arguably better bitcoins released in the years after bitcoin, but when you are dealing with an asset where group belief trumps all, it is crucial to be the first.  There is no metric that gives greater weight than that.  
  
I feel some guilt about being a rampant speculator, but less knowing that the entire ascent of a cryptocurrency relies on greedy speculators at the first stage of launch.  It needs to progress to other groups as well, but it's the greed that fuels the rise in price + development to the point where it can fulfill other purposes.  
 
Also, as the Monero website said: if you are buying this, plan to be extraordinarily wealthy one day, and commit to being the type of person who will use that wealth to do something positive with the world, instead of building a metaphoric effigy to your own ego.  
  
There really isn't anything else like Monero in the crypto world, and if you look at all the pieces, Monero may arguably be intended by powers way above you & I to be the true "bitcoin 2.0".... though once enough faith is established in bitcoin, I don't see that ledger being overthrown.  
 
If Monero and Bitcoin (in a theoretical 2025 scenario) both shared dominance, and it was admitted that Monero clearly had better technology, would it be possible to do a one time hard fork of Monero to incorporate the bitcoin ledger as well, changing the amount of "Monero" from 18 million-ish to about 40 million-ish?  
  
An interesting fantasy scenario.
  

[1714704112]

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[molecular]

It is important to buy in as soon as possible

So someone reading that in Nov '13 (when you made the post) would've bought in right away and be 80% in the red now, still waiting for $2000.

Yeah, you can always cherrypick. If you take the whole price history, and compare buying in immediately to any other buyin strategy, it's hard to find one that yields a better result, even if we didn't take the resources spent in forming and executing the strategy into account. SSS is a simple, passive strategy, suitable for long-term high variance +EV investments, done with small-to-moderate % of your portfolio. It's not intended for dealers, traders, gamblers or the like.

Yes, I agree. I was cherry-picking, of course. Considering to look for a better buy-in strategy. Seems to me some sort of averaging strategy could beat all-in. I know this has been discussed before and it's a moot point until checked against the data, of course.

btw: I found myself unable to hold back on buying during almost all of this bear episode of bitcoin. I'm basically dollar-cost-average buying all the time, maybe even increasing fiat-value of the buys as we go lower.

The thoughts behind your savings plan have helped me on another front, though: I had been accumulating some Auroracoin over the last year of so (I still love that experiment and I'm really happy it looks like it's going to continue) and during the recent hype and price-hike in AUR_BTC (The last airdrop had ended and Baldur Odinson had burned the premine left over from the airdrops) I managed to get myself to ignore the greed and sell into the strength (first regretting it of course, but now - as we experience a slump - being quite content because I also sold the top and I was always "safe" against the hype ending).

So: thanks for the simple savings plan, it's been good for me

[rpietila]

I was an idiot and bought a lot of silver at $30. Being $17 right now I am obviously a bit annoyed.

The buyin price is of secondary importance. If you are now properly weighted, keep it. If you are overweight, sell some at a loss (remember to check that you get some tax credit and how many years it is valid) and buy something that has a negative total_loss_intercorrelation profile or a better upside (or both, such as crypto).

What makes you think people will use Monero rather than BTC in the future? What plans are in the pipeline for Monero?

Only the current BTC people are in love for Bitcoin. But they/we number a few million at most. My experience from selling to cryptovirgins, is that Monero is even more easily grasped and accepted, with the following reasons:
- more early stage (people want to be early)
- no reputation of scams, hacks, drug dealing, Mt.Gox
- anonymous.

Of course Monero will get its share of scams and hacks when it grows larger, but the other points are very valid.

I don't go as far as to give a high or even decent probability for XMR overtaking BTC, but I am proud to be among the first of the elite bitcoiners to recognize it as a possibility. (I was also a world class silver theorist before - even wrote a book on silver - but have forsaken it because facts are facts: crypto is just better.) But to me, it's almost a given (25-50%) that XMR will end up being the 2nd most important coin in the next 1-2 years, and this alone makes the price appreciation against BTC quite likely.

As for plans, it is mostly boring stuff which I know is very important but does not personally interest me. I am very grateful that there is the large dev community taking care of it. The goal is just to maintain an uninfringeable global ledger of truly anonymous transactions, same as BTC's goal is to have transparent transactions.

[BldSwtTrs]

I was an idiot and bought a lot of silver at $30. Being $17 right now I am obviously a bit annoyed.

The buyin price is of secondary importance. If you are now properly weighted, keep it. If you are overweight, sell some at a loss (remember to check that you get some tax credit and how many years it is valid) and buy something that has a negative total_loss_intercorrelation profile or a better upside (or both, such as crypto).

What makes you think people will use Monero rather than BTC in the future? What plans are in the pipeline for Monero?

Only the current BTC people are in love for Bitcoin. But they/we number a few million at most. My experience from selling to cryptovirgins, is that Monero is even more easily grasped and accepted, with the following reasons:
- more early stage (people want to be early)
- no reputation of scams, hacks, drug dealing, Mt.Gox
- anonymous.

Of course Monero will get its share of scams and hacks when it grows larger, but the other points are very valid.

I don't go as far as to give a high or even decent probability for XMR overtaking BTC, but I am proud to be among the first of the elite bitcoiners to recognize it as a possibility. (I was also a world class silver theorist before - even wrote a book on silver - but have forsaken it because facts are facts: crypto is just better.) But to me, it's almost a given (25-50%) that XMR will end up being the 2nd most important coin in the next 1-2 years, and this alone makes the price appreciation against BTC quite likely.

As for plans, it is mostly boring stuff which I know is very important but does not personally interest me. I am very grateful that there is the large dev community taking care of it. The goal is just to maintain an uninfringeable global ledger of truly anonymous transactions, same as BTC's goal is to have transparent transactions.

You seem to assume that there is a very low probability that Bitcoin will be suitable for anonymity needs, don't you think Sidechains and Darkwallet-type of implementation can destroy the potential Monero market?

Also, if BTC is so transparent, why nobody knows where the MtGox coins are?

[rpietila]

I am not here to argue. I think it makes sense to buy XMR at this price. I don't think BTC is able to destroy it, everyone whom I know trusts ring sig anonymity more than the BTC plugin solutions, but it's up to everyone to make their choice (or hedge).

A lot of people know about Mt.Gox coins, but for reasons obvious, they do not publish their knowledge.

[cAPSLOCK]

If Monero and Bitcoin (in a theoretical 2025 scenario) both shared dominance, and it was admitted that Monero clearly had better technology, would it be possible to do a one time hard fork of Monero to incorporate the bitcoin ledger as well, changing the amount of "Monero" from 18 million-ish to about 40 million-ish?  
  
An interesting fantasy scenario.
  

And an impossible one without breaking trust in both currencies.  It is tremendously more likely to see the value of one of these coins shift into the other than for them to merge.  In the short term that value will want to go into bitcoin.  But in the long term, if XMR does not shift ALL its value in that direction the probability of the opposite shift rises continuously.

[afbitcoins]

Hi rpietila I don't know much about Monero but will consider getting some, I respect your opinions. Only thing held me back so far is cryptsy doesn't list it. Maybe this is off topic or something so apologies if so but I wondered what you think of Dash? Personally I  like it, although I know it is not NSA proof it does seem to bring a lot more anonymity than bitcoin for example. 

[pa]

Hi rpietila I don't know much about Monero but will consider getting some, I respect your opinions. Only thing held me back so far is cryptsy doesn't list it.

The best places to get Monero are Poloniex and ShapeShift.

[cAPSLOCK]

Hi rpietila I don't know much about Monero but will consider getting some, I respect your opinions. Only thing held me back so far is cryptsy doesn't list it. Maybe this is off topic or something so apologies if so but I wondered what you think of Dash? Personally I  like it, although I know it is not NSA proof it does seem to bring a lot more anonymity than bitcoin for example. 

My 2 cents.

1.  Huge, gigantic probably lied about instamine.
2.  Too much fancy.  It will be exploited eventually IMO.

[Fiat_Hodler]

PSA: Guys dont bother with other scamcoins. You will just lose your money.

Bitcoin is different and the only one worth talking about.

[rpietila]

hard fork of Monero to incorporate the bitcoin ledger as well

And an impossible one without breaking trust in both currencies.  It is tremendously more likely to see the value of one of these coins shift into the other than for them to merge.  In the short term that value will want to go into bitcoin.  But in the long term, if XMR does not shift ALL its value in that direction the probability of the opposite shift rises continuously.

+1.

Bitcoin is the King of crypto, commanding 93% of the total marketcap. It's nice to be a king, but it has the downside that you can only be dethroned, never advance

Of course I believe that BTC has a great possibility to go up in purchasing power, even by a factor of 1,000 (after all it's my biggest holding, would not be if I did not think so ) but in terms of relative market share, it can only go down (or 7% up if all the other current and future cryptos are abandoned, which is unlikely).

The sway that Bitcoin holds in cryptosphere is so great that it is very difficult for an altcoin to gain traction. But if any of them does to a sufficient degree, I take it as a strong indication that the market is making a shift.

If any one of the altcoins gains a 20% share of the total cryptocoin marketcap, the value in Bitcoin will likely move to that coin.

Caveats:
- No gimmicks. Short-term volatility is excluded. Sufficient trading volume.
- Marketcap must be calculated from the free-trading amount, leaving some room for total planned issuance (future mining) to be taken into account.

It does not take more than 10-25% of the value in Bitcoin to decide to migrate, to trash the Bitcoin remaining value, and make the value of the alt mushroom. For historical reference, Bitcoin marketcap went from about $1M to $200M in 2010-2011 in less than a year. During that period, only about $10M was invested into bitcoins. The rest was wealth effect. The same mechanism applied to the potential migration situation can make the contender quite valuable if only 2% of the wealth in Bitcoin decides to move (and inflict a proportional loss to the remaining bitcoin holdings).

I repeat in bold, because the issue is important: Not every Bitcoin holder needs to sell all their bitcoins for the value to plummet and the alt to take over. It is enough that 10-25% do it, then the ones who migrated will gain the value (as appreciation of the new coin) which was stored in the 75-90% of bitcoins (whose value has plummeted), while the coins still belong to the bagholders. If this were not true, there would be no change in the world, and Bitcoin itself would never have had any traction whatsoever.

I am not always correct, and even when I am, I tend to be ahead of the time. Don't sell your bitcoins, but make sure you have at least the same proportional amount of coins in every alt that has the slightest chance of making it. (It costs basically nothing but your bitcoin maximalism pride).

This is what I have done. And Monero is the only one I believe has the chance currently. I will tell when the situation changes.

[dEBRUYNE]

Hi rpietila I don't know much about Monero but will consider getting some, I respect your opinions. Only thing held me back so far is cryptsy doesn't list it. Maybe this is off topic or something so apologies if so but I wondered what you think of Dash? Personally I  like it, although I know it is not NSA proof it does seem to bring a lot more anonymity than bitcoin for example. 

You can read a nice write up of the caveats here -> http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2zufu1/a_great_podcast_by_lets_talk_bitcoin_discussing/cpmvogy

[americanpegasus]

hard fork of Monero to incorporate the bitcoin ledger as well

And an impossible one

+1.

Bitcoin is [western capitalist CIA honeypot]. 
 
[Other associated soviet propaganda] 
 
... I will tell when the situation changes.

 
 
FACT: If you squint your eyes, the picture of rpietila looks a lot like Vladimir Putin 
FACT: Russia has shunned and spurned and other 's' words towards bitcoin. 
FACT: rpietila is actually attempting to bring about the ressurection of the Soviet Union through Monero. 
 
Open your eyes folks. 

[Flyskyhigh]

hard fork of Monero to incorporate the bitcoin ledger as well

And an impossible one without breaking trust in both currencies.  It is tremendously more likely to see the value of one of these coins shift into the other than for them to merge.  In the short term that value will want to go into bitcoin.  But in the long term, if XMR does not shift ALL its value in that direction the probability of the opposite shift rises continuously.

+1.

Bitcoin is the King of crypto, commanding 93% of the total marketcap. It's nice to be a king, but it has the downside that you can only be dethroned, never advance

Of course I believe that BTC has a great possibility to go up in purchasing power, even by a factor of 1,000 (after all it's my biggest holding, would not be if I did not think so ) but in terms of relative market share, it can only go down (or 7% up if all the other current and future cryptos are abandoned, which is unlikely).

The sway that Bitcoin holds in cryptosphere is so great that it is very difficult for an altcoin to gain traction. But if any of them does to a sufficient degree, I take it as a strong indication that the market is making a shift.

If any one of the altcoins gains a 20% share of the total cryptocoin marketcap, the value in Bitcoin will likely move to that coin.

Caveats:
- No gimmicks. Short-term volatility is excluded. Sufficient trading volume.
- Marketcap must be calculated from the free-trading amount, leaving some room for total planned issuance (future mining) to be taken into account.

It does not take more than 10-25% of the value in Bitcoin to decide to migrate, to trash the Bitcoin remaining value, and make the value of the alt mushroom. For historical reference, Bitcoin marketcap went from about $1M to $200M in 2010-2011 in less than a year. During that period, only about $10M was invested into bitcoins. The rest was wealth effect. The same mechanism applied to the potential migration situation can make the contender quite valuable if only 2% of the wealth in Bitcoin decides to move (and inflict a proportional loss to the remaining bitcoin holdings).

I repeat in bold, because the issue is important: Not every Bitcoin holder needs to sell all their bitcoins for the value to plummet and the alt to take over. It is enough that 10-25% do it, then the ones who migrated will gain the value (as appreciation of the new coin) which was stored in the 75-90% of bitcoins (whose value has plummeted), while the coins still belong to the bagholders. If this were not true, there would be no change in the world, and Bitcoin itself would never have had any traction whatsoever.

I am not always correct, and even when I am, I tend to be ahead of the time. Don't sell your bitcoins, but make sure you have at least the same proportional amount of coins in every alt that has the slightest chance of making it. (It costs basically nothing but your bitcoin maximalism pride).

This is what I have done. And Monero is the only one I believe has the chance currently. I will tell when the situation changes.

What do you think about Mintcoin?

[gentlemand]

It does not take more than 10-25% of the value in Bitcoin to decide to migrate, to trash the Bitcoin remaining value, and make the value of the alt mushroom.

A large amount of BTC holders are definitely not alt fans though. There's no way I'd ever dabble again unless I was putting in peanuts.

If an alt were to start biting into its market share that push would likely need to come from newcomers. It would take quite something for them to be able to look past Bitcoin and be turned on by something else. 

[Erdogan]

It does not take more than 10-25% of the value in Bitcoin to decide to migrate, to trash the Bitcoin remaining value, and make the value of the alt mushroom.

A large amount of BTC holders are definitely not alt fans though. There's no way I'd ever dabble again unless I was putting in peanuts.

If an alt were to start biting into its market share that push would likely need to come from newcomers. It would take quite something for them to be able to look past Bitcoin and be turned on by something else. 

The crucial point is liquidity. The money type with the most liquidity will have an advantage over an altcoin, even if it's traits are somewhat better.

[americanpegasus]

It does not take more than 10-25% of the value in Bitcoin to decide to migrate, to trash the Bitcoin remaining value, and make the value of the alt mushroom.

A large amount of BTC holders are definitely not alt fans though. There's no way I'd ever dabble again unless I was putting in peanuts.

If an alt were to start biting into its market share that push would likely need to come from newcomers. It would take quite something for them to be able to look past Bitcoin and be turned on by something else. 

 
 
And that might be exactly why it's a black Swan to bitcoin fans...  Not that bitcoin would ever fail, there is a market for a time tested and powerful public ledger, but the speculative growth they are searching for may belong to another asset entirely.

[rpietila]

Don't get me wrong. I did not say it is probable that an alt ever reaches 20% of BTC.

What I did say is that if it happens, it does not require that all BTC holders decide in favor of this alt. As little as 2% of the BTC value may be enough to reach it, causing an educated stampede, and when 10-25% of the value has migrated, there is practically no value left in Bitcoin, because the rest of the value has made an invisible transition by the alt price increasing and BTC decreasing. Most of the BTCers can never exit with their wealth intact. If ever the situation presents itself, you got to be among the first ones.

Just that you know. It is not intuitive that it is so. Protecting yourself now costs essentially nothing.

[Flyskyhigh]

Timing.. Its all timing, and who knows?

The thing us nobody really knows.

What was not a liquid market one day could suddenly become one. A lot of traders in this crypto market. They don't care about any thing but profit from momentum.

What you say is true, it could happen, but probably only for a relatively short period of time. There will always be momentum somewhere else.. About to steal the show.

[rjclarke2000]

I've just read all about the castle rpietila. What a success story.  


I wish you all the luck during the next price rise so you can do the renovation work.

I hope I can buy an English castle here in the next 10 years! (Or maybe just pay off my mortgage)