rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[oblivi]

When you say GLD are you talking about Goldcoin, that coin being shilled by MicroGuy? Isn't this nothing buy a shitty pump and dump? I haven't got none of these . Right now im 80% BTC and 20% XMR. Always interested in quick ways to make money tho so... how do you see entering GLD now?

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[dEBRUYNE]

When you say GLD are you talking about Goldcoin, that coin being shilled by MicroGuy? Isn't this nothing buy a shitty pump and dump? I haven't got none of these . Right now im 80% BTC and 20% XMR. Always interested in quick ways to make money tho so... how do you see entering GLD now?

He is talking about the Gold ETF, no coins involved here

[Trolololo]

I repost a Risto's mythic post, one of the best I have ever read in this forum:

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

Today we have lost the 340, and I expect to bottom on 275 on Tuesday. Free coins today and then!!


You will have to edit the "starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11" sentence by, perhaps, "starting point of $275 in December 2014" in the future, but that doesn't change the message of that mythic post at all.

[Wekkel]

I repost a Risto's mythic post, one of the best I have ever read in this forum:

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible.

[...]

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

Today we have lost the 340, and I expect to bottom on 275 on Tuesday. Free coins today and then!!


You will have to edit the "starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11" sentence by, perhaps, "starting point of $275 in December 2014" in the future, but that doesn't change the message of that mythic post at all.

A Mythic Post indeed 

[Otoh]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

It should be trivial to provide blockchain verifiable evidence of holdings in realtime. In fact I expect this before I send them a penny from my tax free stocks wrapper.

it should be trivial to document gold holdings as well. Perhaps you know this, but Joe public does not have the knowledge to check the blockchain to verify. Even for an expert, it would take a while, and they will say that it is proprietary info.

Well some exchanges reveal their holdings in a blockchain verifiable way. The same will i am sure be true of COIN. You think a major investor is going to send them millions of dollars and just accept that they have the coins without proof? Lol.

It is totally different from gold. This is a cryptographically verifiable non counterfeitable digital token - much cooler

What BTC ETFs like COIN and other BTC investment funds need to do is to guarantee and show allocated coins, every client's holding is stored on their own individual publicly published and viewable address, rather than pooled in the total holdings account as happens on exchanges, this is like the best practice of PM funds like www.bullionvault.com except miles better as anyone can instantly see and prove that the funds are actually allocated to the clients rather than just take the business's and auditor's word for it.

[inca]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

It should be trivial to provide blockchain verifiable evidence of holdings in realtime. In fact I expect this before I send them a penny from my tax free stocks wrapper.

it should be trivial to document gold holdings as well. Perhaps you know this, but Joe public does not have the knowledge to check the blockchain to verify. Even for an expert, it would take a while, and they will say that it is proprietary info.

Well some exchanges reveal their holdings in a blockchain verifiable way. The same will i am sure be true of COIN. You think a major investor is going to send them millions of dollars and just accept that they have the coins without proof? Lol.

It is totally different from gold. This is a cryptographically verifiable non counterfeitable digital token - much cooler

What BTC ETFs like COIN and other BTC investment funds need to do is to guarantee and show allocated coins, every client's holding is stored on their own individual publicly published and viewable address, rather than pooled in the total holdings account as happens on exchanges, this is like the best practice of PM funds like www.bullionvault.com except miles better as anyone can instantly see and prove that the funds are actually allocated to the clients rather than just take the business's and auditor's word for it.

It is technically possible and would show that these magic internet money tokens are unique in more ways than one.

[JayJuanGee]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

It should be trivial to provide blockchain verifiable evidence of holdings in realtime. In fact I expect this before I send them a penny from my tax free stocks wrapper.

it should be trivial to document gold holdings as well. Perhaps you know this, but Joe public does not have the knowledge to check the blockchain to verify. Even for an expert, it would take a while, and they will say that it is proprietary info.

Well some exchanges reveal their holdings in a blockchain verifiable way. The same will i am sure be true of COIN. You think a major investor is going to send them millions of dollars and just accept that they have the coins without proof? Lol.

It is totally different from gold. This is a cryptographically verifiable non counterfeitable digital token - much cooler

What BTC ETFs like COIN and other BTC investment funds need to do is to guarantee and show allocated coins, every client's holding is stored on their own individual publicly published and viewable address, rather than pooled in the total holdings account as happens on exchanges, this is like the best practice of PM funds like www.bullionvault.com except miles better as anyone can instantly see and prove that the funds are actually allocated to the clients rather than just take the business's and auditor's word for it.

+1  totally agree, Otoh!!!!

[Biodom]

I posit that either nobody knows what bitcoin price will be at a distant point in the future, or many people do. In the latter case it is zero, of course, which is predicted by some. Since it is unlikely that nobody can predict bitcoin price, then the most probable logical expectation is zero, at least this would be the most probable exact value predicted by crowdsourcing.

[sidhujag]

knowledge era is here dumb wallstreet jocks are buying with millions of $ as we speak the wave wil hit harder than noobs can cover there heads with their bedsheets.. i think 7k until next reversal.

[sidhujag]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

It should be trivial to provide blockchain verifiable evidence of holdings in realtime. In fact I expect this before I send them a penny from my tax free stocks wrapper.

it should be trivial to document gold holdings as well. Perhaps you know this, but Joe public does not have the knowledge to check the blockchain to verify. Even for an expert, it would take a while, and they will say that it is proprietary info.

Well some exchanges reveal their holdings in a blockchain verifiable way. The same will i am sure be true of COIN. You think a major investor is going to send them millions of dollars and just accept that they have the coins without proof? Lol.

It is totally different from gold. This is a cryptographically verifiable non counterfeitable digital token - much cooler

What BTC ETFs like COIN and other BTC investment funds need to do is to guarantee and show allocated coins, every client's holding is stored on their own individual publicly published and viewable address, rather than pooled in the total holdings account as happens on exchanges, this is like the best practice of PM funds like www.bullionvault.com except miles better as anyone can instantly see and prove that the funds are actually allocated to the clients rather than just take the business's and auditor's word for it.

It is technically possible and would show that these magic internet money tokens are unique in more ways than one.

$266 already proved this. Only those that r smart will know what i say.

[podyx]

What is Risto's thoughts on this price drop?

[NotLambchop]

What is Risto's thoughts on this price drop?

"People can only learn more about Bitcoin [tanking], unlearning is not possible."--The Supernode, What I Meant To Say Was

[smooth]

"A total of 174,100 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history"

Really? That's a remarkably precise number. Does it include Yamashita's gold, I wonder?

We can safely assume that is inaccurate by a factor of 10 and still the paranoid delusion that GLD is larger than all gold ever mined is not even remotely close to correct. "Gold ever mined" is fairly irrelevant, I would agree, but that was the claim.

[rpietila]

I just observed a wall of 30,000 BTC in Bitstamp. It was offered for sale at $300.

This is a very high wall, which has not been seen before in Bitstamp. Even in the old Gox era, 30k was a rare occurrence, the typical walls at that time (early 2013) were 10-20k.

The fiat value of the wall ($9 million USD) beats the historical walls of a few $100k's hands down.

[ssmc2]

I just observed a wall of 30,000 BTC in Bitstamp. It was offered for sale at $300.

This is a very high wall, which has not been seen before in Bitstamp. Even in the old Gox era, 30k was a rare occurrence, the typical walls at that time (early 2013) were 10-20k.

The fiat value of the wall ($9 million USD) beats the historical walls of a few $100k's hands down.

And your thoughts on that?

[rpietila]

I am assuming that the wall is caused by one entity. Such entities capable of selling BTC30,000 exists, but they are few in number. I would put the figure at 30 potential sellers.

The number goes much lower if we consider the risks involved in selling so many coins in Bitstamp.

It is hardly a forced sale, because it is unlikely that such a position would have been financed by debt such that it must now be sold at a loss, and if this were the case, a wall would likely not be the way to realize the value.

It is hardly a panic sale, because the people with 30,000 are not prone to panic selling. If they were, they would have had ample opportunities to show their panicky nature in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. (And people buying in 2014 who are prone to panic, never had the $20-$30 million needed to begin with - panicky people cannot amass so much money).

I can only conclude that it is a scare wall, intended to bring the price down for accumulation. It is used during weekend when no new money is coming, mitigating the risk for an outright buy. In case of nibble, it can be safely pulled.

No matter who has already bought so many and wants to buy more, I see it as a natural and inevitable development in Bitcoin's way to be more widely adopted.

By the way, I have a castle for sale for bitcoins. Serious inquiries to PM please

[BTCtrader71]

I just observed a wall of 30,000 BTC in Bitstamp. It was offered for sale at $300.

This is a very high wall, which has not been seen before in Bitstamp. Even in the old Gox era, 30k was a rare occurrence, the typical walls at that time (early 2013) were 10-20k.

The fiat value of the wall ($9 million USD) beats the historical walls of a few $100k's hands down.

Could this be the source of the 30k BTC?

https://blockchain.info/address/159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq?filter=1

[redsn0w]

I am assuming that the wall is caused by one entity. Such entities capable of selling BTC30,000 exists, but they are few in number. I would put the figure at 30 potential sellers.

The number goes much lower if we consider the risks involved in selling so many coins in Bitstamp.

It is hardly a forced sale, because it is unlikely that such a position would have been financed by debt such that it must now be sold at a loss, and if this were the case, a wall would likely not be the way to realize the value.

It is hardly a panic sale, because the people with 30,000 are not prone to panic selling. If they were, they would have had ample opportunities to show their panicky nature in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. (And people buying in 2014 who are prone to panic, never had the $20-$30 million needed to begin with - panicky people cannot amass so much money).

I can only conclude that it is a scare wall, intended to bring the price down for accumulation. It is used during weekend when no new money is coming, mitigating the risk for an outright buy. In case of nibble, it can be safely pulled.

By the way, I have a castle for sale for bitcoins. Serious inquiries to PM please

The wall was gone , don't worry .

[DieJohnny]

I am assuming that the wall is caused by one entity. Such entities capable of selling BTC30,000 exists, but they are few in number. I would put the figure at 30 potential sellers.

The number goes much lower if we consider the risks involved in selling so many coins in Bitstamp

..

By the way, I have a castle for sale for bitcoins. Serious inquiries to PM please

Are you implying the wall is from an early Bitcoin adopter trying to get more coins? Any chance a US government attempt at trouncing Bitcoin value?

Do you have specific people in mind?

Your last sentence.....You are selling your Estonia castle? This was to be the center of the Bitcoin universe, can you please elaborate?

[rpietila]

Are you implying the wall is from an early Bitcoin adopter trying to get more coins? Any chance a US government attempt at trouncing Bitcoin value?

Don't know.

Your last sentence.....You are selling your Estonia castle? This was to be the center of the Bitcoin universe, can you please elaborate?

Having a smiley does not seem to work. Yes, I mentioned now the first time that even Bitcoin castle may be for sale, if Bitcoin becomes cheap enough. If I sell it for Bitcoins, it just changes ownership to stronger hands, and can still become the center of Bitcoin universe.

Selling to an outsider would be a pity, but luckily that does not ever happen unless Bitcoin is thoroughly destroyed first, meaning that the castle also becomes useless for its intended purpose.