rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Biodom]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.

Spoken like a noob. Mining is very much relevant, and if you fail to understand it, then it means that you know nothing about bitcoin. Saying that mining is not relevant for a price of bitcoin would be similar to saying that the price of feeding growing cows is irrelevant to the price of meat.

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[prophetx]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

there we go we finally got someone who understands that bitcoin functions like any other commodity, esp like gold mining

inputs and outputs, and who can survive on a bowl of rice to mine that nugget

[Erdogan]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.

So what is the *real* thing that give the value to bitcoin   ?

As I said, there is no real thing. Take a look at this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=769927.0
The value problem - explained.
Edit: (By me)

[smooth]

there we go we finally got someone who understands that bitcoin functions like any other commodity, esp like gold mining

No it doesn't. Gold mining has output that is variable and depends on price. Bitcoin doesn't.

[Erdogan]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.

Spoken like a noob. Mining is very much relevant, and if you fail to understand it, then it means that you know nothing about bitcoin. Saying that mining is not relevant for a price of bitcoin would be similar to saying that the price of feeding growing cows is irrelevant to the price of meat.

The difference is that meat is continually produced, and destroyed by consumption. Bitcoins are neither produced (the volume is predetermined, which is the same, for price) nor consumed.

[Erdogan]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

there we go we finally got someone who understands that bitcoin functions like any other commodity, esp like gold mining

inputs and outputs, and who can survive on a bowl of rice to mine that nugget

If you dig into the gold valuation stuff, you will discover that the same is true for bitcoin and gold, that the mining cost follows price, not the other way around. For gold, there is a 10 year lag, due to the time it takes to find, plan, and build a mine, plus the fact that investors would like to see that a high price is steady before they invest. There is a time lag also in bitcoin, but we don't know how large.

[Erdogan]

there we go we finally got someone who understands that bitcoin functions like any other commodity, esp like gold mining

No it doesn't. Gold mining has output that is variable and depends on price. Bitcoin doesn't.

Interesting poin, IMO.

Gold does have output that is variable and depends on price, but maybe the mining aspect is better viewed initially with something like coal that is less variable because coal provides US with 60% of electric and that is basically constant for ~6 month periods (weather).  Since BTC has a defined output also.

Gold is the best analogy, because it is a (relatively) fixed volume (production is a small percentage of existing monetary gold), and relatively little is consumed.

[NotLambchop]

...
Gold is the best analogy, because it is a (relatively) fixed volume (production is a small percentage of existing monetary gold), and relatively little is consumed.

What percentage of the total gold supply is mined yearly? <==not rhetorical, don't know

What percentage of total BTC supply is mined yearly? <==this one I know

[Biodom]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

there we go we finally got someone who understands that bitcoin functions like any other commodity, esp like gold mining

inputs and outputs, and who can survive on a bowl of rice to mine that nugget

If you dig into the gold valuation stuff, you will discover that the same is true for bitcoin and gold, that the mining cost follows price, not the other way around. For gold, there is a 10 year lag, due to the time it takes to find, plan, and build a mine, plus the fact that investors would like to see that a high price is steady before they invest. There is a time lag also in bitcoin, but we don't know how large.

Well, i provided several specific predictions, but you engage in an empty rhetoric, therefore there is no common topic to discuss further.

[mmitech]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.

So what is the *real* thing that give the value to bitcoin   ?

price discovery is defined by supply and demand.... BTW even if miners stop selling for a whole year the fact that there is still 13 million Bitcoin in circulation while the bookorders of all exchanges combined make less than 100K BTC in the best case, and if we talk fiat, last time I checked (today) the book orders combined doesn't make more than $15 million .... is just scary.

[JayJuanGee]

I imagine this is an indication you are interested in accumulating BTC again.

Well I don't want to make too small gains, but big gains are fine for me. The castle was bought when BTC was $675. So I am tempted to exchange it back for coins if it goes to $200. And then buy a castle again with 1/3 of the money when BTC is in reasonable prices.

Nothing is permanent in life.

I don't understand why it would matter if you sell the castle for BTC or for fiat - because in either case you are using the fiat value of the castle as the measurement for how much (either BTC or fiat) to receive.

A considerable problem with real estate can be the considerable transaction fees that may be involved in transacting in such.... and sometimes the time that it could take to finalize various aspects of the deal.  Do we really believe that BTC prices could remain in this $200 to $400 price range for 3-6 months?

[Erdogan]

...
Gold is the best analogy, because it is a (relatively) fixed volume (production is a small percentage of existing monetary gold), and relatively little is consumed.

What percentage of the total gold supply is mined yearly? <==not rhetorical, don't know

What percentage of total BTC supply is mined yearly? <==this one I know

For gold, 1-2 %, may rise with a high price, may rise if some new technology is found.

Bitcoin, you know that one, but it is also predetermined, so you can remove it from the function just like you remove constants from a derivative function. Could the current bitcoin production affect supply (the sell orders)? Yes, for some, but it can also be ignored by some. The speculation of a grand appreciation is currently overwhelming all other reasons for demand.

[smooth]

there we go we finally got someone who understands that bitcoin functions like any other commodity, esp like gold mining

No it doesn't. Gold mining has output that is variable and depends on price. Bitcoin doesn't.

Interesting poin, IMO.

Gold does have output that is variable and depends on price, but maybe the mining aspect is better viewed initially with something like coal that is less variable because coal provides US with 60% of electric and that is basically constant for ~6 month periods (weather).  Since BTC has a defined output also.

Gold is the best analogy, because it is a (relatively) fixed volume (production is a small percentage of existing monetary gold), and relatively little is consumed.

It may be the best analogy, but it is still a poor one because quantity of supply is responsive to price. With Bitcoin only cost of supply changes, but quantity does not.

This is a difference in kind, and Bitcoin as a mathematical construction does not operate the same way as non-synthetic markets such as gold do. There might be some financial assets that as mathematical constructions also behave like Bitcoin, although I don't know what they are. You can rule out any non-virtual good behaving like Bitcoin though.

[SlipperySlope]

Here is a notable ask wall on Bitstamp, currently 19607 BTC for sale at $300. Buyers are nibbling as I watch. I hope to get a small piece for myself if the lot is still for sale Monday morning Austin time. The collapse of the 2013 bubbles is reminding me more and more of the great bubble collapse of 2011, when I watched bitcoin fall from $30 to $3 and did not buy any more  - ugh.

[Bitcopia]

Here is a notable ask wall on Bitstamp, currently 19607 BTC for sale at $300. Buyers are nibbling as I watch. I hope to get a small piece for myself if the lot is still for sale Monday morning Austin time. The collapse of the 2013 bubbles is reminding me more and more of the great bubble collapse of 2011, when I watched bitcoin fall from $30 to $3 and did not buy any more  - ugh.

Why do you think the price is staying so flat? I've never seen anything like it. Huobi and Bitfinex have both stayed about $6-8 above this flatline on BitStamp. Something odd is happening.

[JayJuanGee]

Here is a notable ask wall on Bitstamp, currently 19607 BTC for sale at $300. Buyers are nibbling as I watch. I hope to get a small piece for myself if the lot is still for sale Monday morning Austin time. The collapse of the 2013 bubbles is reminding me more and more of the great bubble collapse of 2011, when I watched bitcoin fall from $30 to $3 and did not buy any more  - ugh.

Why do you think the price is staying so flat? I've never seen anything like it. Huobi and Bitfinex have both stayed about $6-8 above this flatline on BitStamp. Something odd is happening.

The motive of the whale may be ambiguous; however, the flat price performance is NOT really ambiguous. The price will NOT  move very much with such a wall of BTC .

[SlipperySlope]

Why do you think the price is staying so flat? I've never seen anything like it. Huobi and Bitfinex have both stayed about $6-8 above this flatline on BitStamp. Something odd is happening.

A 1200 chunk was bought just moments ago. The cost of arbitrage allows the Chinese exchanges to be somewhat higher than Bitstamp. The price is flat because there is no one willing to sell lower at these remarkably low prices. Buyers are not numerous enough to buy the whole block and move prices higher.

The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.

[Bitcopia]

Why do you think the price is staying so flat? I've never seen anything like it. Huobi and Bitfinex have both stayed about $6-8 above this flatline on BitStamp. Something odd is happening.

A 1200 chuck was bought just moments ago. The cost of arbitrage allows the Chinese exchanges to be somewhat higher than Bitstamp. The price is flat because there is no one willing to sell lower at these remarkably low prices. Buyers are not numerous enough to buy the whole block and move prices higher.

The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.

I hope that you are right, as it would imply an almost guaranteed breakout from this level. It just doesn't add up because if your opinion is correct, than whoever is selling these coins is a terrible trader, and most terrible traders don't have 30k bitcoins. It also doesn't add up because people were willing to sell below these remarkably low prices earlier today. But I don't have a better explanation...

This is the most odd market action I've ever witnessed.

[solex]

Why do you think the price is staying so flat? I've never seen anything like it. Huobi and Bitfinex have both stayed about $6-8 above this flatline on BitStamp. Something odd is happening.

A 1200 chuck was bought just moments ago. The cost of arbitrage allows the Chinese exchanges to be somewhat higher than Bitstamp. The price is flat because there is no one willing to sell lower at these remarkably low prices. Buyers are not numerous enough to buy the whole block and move prices higher.

The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.

I hope that you are right, as it would imply an almost guaranteed breakout from this level. It just doesn't add up because if your opinion is correct, than whoever is selling these coins is a terrible trader, and most terrible traders don't have 30k bitcoins. It also doesn't add up because people were willing to sell below these remarkably low prices earlier today. But I don't have a better explanation...

This is the most odd market action I've ever witnessed.

I think it is a hoarder who got sick and tired of seeing the price decline all year, and has finally thrown in the towel, but at the worst possible moment, when the curve on the daily chart has gone vertically down.

[BTCtrader71]

The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.

Presumably this is the same trader who was putting up and taking down 30k sell walls on stamp, starting about 12 hours-ish ago.