rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[findftp]

[log price chart]
[variation from trend chart]

A backtested strategy suggests buying when the J line (purple) rises above 50 and selling when the J line falls below 50.

January 9th 2012 would not have been a really good time to buy.
Although other moments would have been a very good time to buy according to the strategy.

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[rpietila]

Unless we make a significant new low (below $266 would qualify), we have just made a multi-month double bottom, an incredibly bullish signal, way more bullish than the 1-month double bottom at $2 in 2011.

QFI:

Unless we make a significant new low (below $266 would qualify), we have just made a multi-month double bottom, an incredibly bullish signal, way more bullish than the 1-month double bottom at $2 in 2011.

[iCEBREAKER]

Unless we make a significant new low (below $266 would qualify), we have just made a multi-month double bottom, an incredibly bullish signal, way more bullish than the 1-month double bottom at $2 in 2011.

QFI:

Unless we make a significant new low (below $266 would qualify), we have just made a multi-month double bottom, an incredibly bullish signal, way more bullish than the 1-month double bottom at $2 in 2011.

I see so many people with bullish expectations...that seems like a bearish indicator to a contrarian like me.   

[CMMPro]

[log price chart]
[variation from trend chart]

Nice charts. I especially like the central tendency illustration over the past 12 months.

Here is the one-week resolution log chart of Bitstamp prices with your regression line approximated by me. The bottom technical indicator is the KDJ as provided by Bitcoin Wisdom. A backtested strategy suggests buying when the J line (purple) rises above 50 and selling when the J line falls below 50.

Hey Stephen....as I mentioned on cryptocrypt last week...I believe the KDJ is one of the best indicators I've found so far but I believe we have to look for the J line to cross below 20 for a buy signal. It is currently reaching into that territory. Notice how the lower crossovers exactly pinpoint the bottom before a rise and the higher crossovers pinpoint the coming drop...this indicator seems to lead very nicely. 

I will consider it a very strong buy signal if we get a sharp upward crossover below 20...if you see the J line cross and stay above (on the 3d chart) you know the time has come.

[SlipperySlope]

[Hey Stephen....as I mentioned on cryptocrypt last week...I believe the KDJ is one of the best indicators I've found so far but I believe we have to look for the J line to cross below 20 for a buy signal. It is currently reaching into that territory. Notice how the lower crossovers exactly pinpoint the bottom before a rise and the higher crossovers pinpoint the coming drop...this indicator seems to lead very nicely. 

I will consider it a very strong buy signal if we get a sharp upward crossover below 20...if you see the J line cross and stay above (on the 3d chart) you know the time has come.

I am buying fractional coin each month and do not plan to trade until we get the next bubble peak, i.e. I am buying now regardless of indicators.  However algorithmic trading methods are very interesting. I just learned about the KDJ indicator, and maybe from you. I like the weekly chart and the long term swings.

Do you have a preferred time-resolution for the KDJ indicator - assuming zero trading fees as can obtained on the liquid Chinese exchanges?

-Stephen

[CMMPro]

I think we have to watch 3d for the J line cross and then be prepared to move to a short time period when price starts moving quickly.

Personally I'm making longer term trades in and out of the market with 10-20% of my holdings...so 3d is fine in my case.
Some people may want to put a magnifying glass to the market and try to gain on every 15 min blip...not me.  

The 3 day KDJ is brilliant as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Biodom]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

[coinits]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

[Biodom]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

[inca]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

It should be trivial to provide blockchain verifiable evidence of holdings in realtime. In fact I expect this before I send them a penny from my tax free stocks wrapper.

[Biodom]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

It should be trivial to provide blockchain verifiable evidence of holdings in realtime. In fact I expect this before I send them a penny from my tax free stocks wrapper.

it should be trivial to document gold holdings as well. Perhaps you know this, but Joe public does not have the knowledge to check the blockchain to verify. Even for an expert, it would take a while, and they will say that it is proprietary info.

[inca]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

It should be trivial to provide blockchain verifiable evidence of holdings in realtime. In fact I expect this before I send them a penny from my tax free stocks wrapper.

it should be trivial to document gold holdings as well. Perhaps you know this, but Joe public does not have the knowledge to check the blockchain to verify. Even for an expert, it would take a while, and they will say that it is proprietary info.

Well some exchanges reveal their holdings in a blockchain verifiable way. The same will i am sure be true of COIN. You think a major investor is going to send them millions of dollars and just accept that they have the coins without proof? Lol.

It is totally different from gold. This is a cryptographically verifiable non counterfeitable digital token - much cooler

[Biodom]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

It should be trivial to provide blockchain verifiable evidence of holdings in realtime. In fact I expect this before I send them a penny from my tax free stocks wrapper.

it should be trivial to document gold holdings as well. Perhaps you know this, but Joe public does not have the knowledge to check the blockchain to verify. Even for an expert, it would take a while, and they will say that it is proprietary info.

Well some exchanges reveal their holdings in a blockchain verifiable way. The same will i am sure be true of COIN. You think a major investor is going to send them millions of dollars and just accept that they have the coins without proof? Lol.

It is totally different from gold. This is a cryptographically verifiable non counterfeitable digital token - much cooler

Yes, they will show you btc, but how will you learn that they did not create multiple side entries where they hypothecated and rehypothicated the same bitcoin to others in lieu of some other instruments. It is being done in stocks ALL the time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothecation

[inca]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

It should be trivial to provide blockchain verifiable evidence of holdings in realtime. In fact I expect this before I send them a penny from my tax free stocks wrapper.

it should be trivial to document gold holdings as well. Perhaps you know this, but Joe public does not have the knowledge to check the blockchain to verify. Even for an expert, it would take a while, and they will say that it is proprietary info.

Well some exchanges reveal their holdings in a blockchain verifiable way. The same will i am sure be true of COIN. You think a major investor is going to send them millions of dollars and just accept that they have the coins without proof? Lol.

It is totally different from gold. This is a cryptographically verifiable non counterfeitable digital token - much cooler

Yes, they will show you btc, but how will you learn that they did not create multiple side entries where they hypothecated and rehypothicated the same bitcoin to others in lieu of some other instruments. It is being done in stocks ALL the time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothecation

Because bitcoin is one of the few entities to exist in the world ever that allows provably verifiable holdings to be checked (on the blockchain). If the ETF has units which are fractions of a btc then this means it is trivial to confirm the etf is holding the exact number of  coins they need to prevent a fractional reserve system. Could they try and sell more shares of the ETF than their verified holdings allow - yes. But they would probably be caught out.

I agree though that the gold ETFs were probably a fractional reserve, in cahoots with the bullion banks.

[chopstick]

Rpetilia, where are you??

How many coins do I need to be a billionaire?

[explorer]

Rpetilia, where are you??

How many coins do I need to be a billionaire?

wikipedia:

 

A billionaire, in countries that use the short scale number naming system, is a person with a net worth of at least one billion (1,000,000,000) units of a given currency...

 

[smooth]

There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined.

Where do people come up with these paranoid delusions?

"GLD Mkt Cap 29.99B"

"A total of 174,100 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history"

Not even 1%.

[JayJuanGee]

I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  .

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.

It should be trivial to provide blockchain verifiable evidence of holdings in realtime. In fact I expect this before I send them a penny from my tax free stocks wrapper.

it should be trivial to document gold holdings as well. Perhaps you know this, but Joe public does not have the knowledge to check the blockchain to verify. Even for an expert, it would take a while, and they will say that it is proprietary info.

Well some exchanges reveal their holdings in a blockchain verifiable way. The same will i am sure be true of COIN. You think a major investor is going to send them millions of dollars and just accept that they have the coins without proof? Lol.

It is totally different from gold. This is a cryptographically verifiable non counterfeitable digital token - much cooler

Yes, they will show you btc, but how will you learn that they did not create multiple side entries where they hypothecated and rehypothicated the same bitcoin to others in lieu of some other instruments. It is being done in stocks ALL the time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothecation

Because bitcoin is one of the few entities to exist in the world ever that allows provably verifiable holdings to be checked (on the blockchain). If the ETF has units which are fractions of a btc then this means it is trivial to confirm the etf is holding the exact number of  coins they need to prevent a fractional reserve system. Could they try and sell more shares of the ETF than their verified holdings allow - yes. But they would probably be caught out.

I agree though that the gold ETFs were probably a fractional reserve, in cahoots with the bullion banks.

I am of the belief that so far, the BTC sphere has NOT established any reliable and/or well known mechanism for auditing bitcoin exchanges (and/or other holders of customer bitcoins), and surely, it would be nice to establish these kinds of auditing systems in order to match up every bitcoin with one that exists on the blockchain - because supposedly one of the central and valuable attributes of bitcoin remains its NON-duplicating scarcity.   

If bitcoin loses its non-duplicating scarcity or exchanges (and/or other holders of customer bitcoins) are able to engage in fractional reserve banking, then the value of bitcoin (and its scarcity) is going to be considerably undermined... and BTC prices will go into the toilet... and/or remained at extensively deflated levels.

Sometimes I have suspected that some of the current exchanges (and maybe even the chinese exchanges) are already engaging in a form of fractional reserve banking with bitcoins - because I wonder from where are all the bitcoins are coming that are being sold and dumped on the exchanges.. though it is possible that the exchanges need NOT be engaging in fractional reserve banking in order for BTC prices to be manipulated downward so long as they have systems in which they can acquire large quantities of coins OTC and then transfer them to exchanges for dumping (buy in secret and sell publicly, which downwardly manipulates prices) which seems to be the current status of BTC's prices to be manipulated downward on exchange dumps.

[Bagatell]

"A total of 174,100 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history"

Really? That's a remarkably precise number. Does it include Yamashita's gold, I wonder?

[prophetx]

"A total of 174,100 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history"

Really? That's a remarkably precise number. Does it include Yamashita's gold, I wonder?

yes any particular number should be precise, but is it accurate?