rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[BTCtrader71]

I think it is a hoarder who got sick and tired of seeing the price decline all year, and has finally thrown in the towel, but at the worst possible moment, when the curve on the daily chart has gone vertically down.

I've wondered whether the Oct 15 deadline for US income tax might be playing a role. Someone who needed to sell bitcoin to pay 2013 income taxes may have taken the 6-month extension, thinking / hoping that the next bubble would have at least started by now.

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[SlipperySlope]

The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.

Presumably this is the same trader who was putting up and taking down 30k sell walls on stamp, starting about 12 hours-ish ago.

Possibly the trader believes that $300 is a price milestone that will attract sufficient buyers to move the entire lot with no slippage.

One might argue that a better strategy would have been to randomly sell much smaller lots in the preceding weeks. But who knows the motivation and its urgency?

Every order on Bitstamp for the last two minutes has been a purchase. The wall has been nibbled down to 16908 BTC. Huboi reports $312.77 on Bitcoin Wisdom, so maybe arbitrage is happening too.

[sidhujag]

I think it is a hoarder who got sick and tired of seeing the price decline all year, and has finally thrown in the towel, but at the worst possible moment, when the curve on the daily chart has gone vertically down.

I've wondered whether the Oct 15 deadline for US income tax might be playing a role. Someone who needed to sell bitcoin to pay 2013 income taxes may have taken the 6-month extension, thinking / hoping that the next bubble would have at least started by now.

So in the interest of declaring tax he held on to his btc and now is selling at a loss most likely?

[Rat_Poison]

http://m.memegen.com/5tn3xl.jpg

[SlipperySlope]

According to the volume chart, the $300 ask wall on Bitstamp is being devoured at the rate of about 1000 BTC every 30 minutes.

I would be pleasantly surprised if there is any left to buy when my local ATM opens for business.

[BTCtrader71]

The ask wall is currently 18130 BTC. I have not seen anything like this either - and sure would like to get a piece of it - when my local ATM opens.

Presumably this is the same trader who was putting up and taking down 30k sell walls on stamp, starting about 12 hours-ish ago.

Possibly the trader believes that $300 is a price milestone that will attract sufficient buyers to move the entire lot with no slippage.

One might argue that a better strategy would have been to randomly sell much smaller lots in the preceding weeks. But who knows the motivation and its urgency?

Every order on Bitstamp for the last two minutes has been a purchase. The wall has been nibbled down to 16908 BTC. Huboi reports $312.77 on Bitcoin Wisdom, so maybe arbitrage is happening too.

It is interesting to see that over the past 3 hours during which time the 300 sell wall has been standing firm, the prices on okcoin, btce, bfx, lakebtc have climbed steadily from ~305 to ~312. Which must mean that there is buying pressure on the other exchanges, but the arbitrage channels are being gradually worn down. Very interesting experiment!

And it begs the question: Why sell all 30k on stamp?

[SlipperySlope]

It is interesting to see that over the past 3 hours during which time the 300 sell wall has been standing firm, the prices on okcoin, btce, bfx, lakebtc have climbed steadily from ~305 to ~312. Which must mean that there is buying pressure on the other exchanges, but the arbitrage channels are being gradually worn down. Very interesting experiment!

And it begs the question: Why sell all 30k on stamp?

From what I see, and from what others have commented on this thread and others, the trading behavior is unprofessional. Namely, that professional order-execution traders would have gained more revenue for the seller.

[SlipperySlope]

Hmmm. Just now a sell order of several hundred bitcoin at market has pushed the price down below the ask wall, which has moved above my order book horizon on Bitcoin Wisdom. The last value I recall was in the 15000+ range.

... eating popcorn - which is entertainment food here in the USA.

[update, the wall has been reduced to 15757 and is joined by a smaller wall 694 @ 298 - And that smaller one is bought in one order as I write!]

[Roccker]

New all-time-high in number of bitcoin adresses (177 000, one week averages)

[rpietila]

Of course the rapid fall has made me think about Bitcoin's chances. But without going into details, I don't think much anything has changed except the price.

When you think about buying or selling, then you should look at the price. And buy when it is low, sell when it is high.

When you think about the viability of a technology, you should look at the news, and since they typically provide a very distorted picture, go behind them, the fundamentals. If the fundamentals are good, you should seek to buy when the price is also low. If they are bad, you should seek to sell, especially if price is high.

Seems that there are enough people in the market now that think the complete opposite of what I do currently, concerning the relation of price and fundamentals  

[bitteractor]

Of course the rapid fall has made me think about Bitcoin's chances. But without going into details, I don't think much anything has changed except the price.

Seems that there are enough people in the market now that think the complete opposite of what I do currently, concerning the relation of price and fundamentals 

Not sure I understand what you mean here . . .

Are you saying that you don't believe bitcoin's fundamentals are strong and anyone buying has "the complete opposite" opinion of you?

[wachtwoord]

Of course the rapid fall has made me think about Bitcoin's chances. But without going into details, I don't think much anything has changed except the price.

Seems that there are enough people in the market now that think the complete opposite of what I do currently, concerning the relation of price and fundamentals 

Not sure I understand what you mean here . . .

Are you saying that you don't believe bitcoin's fundamentals are strong and anyone buying has "the complete opposite" opinion of you?

No he's saying the opposite.

[manfred]

New all-time-high in number of bitcoin adresses (177 000, one week averages)

Good to see

[frienemy]

Of course the rapid fall has made me think about Bitcoin's chances. But without going into details, I don't think much anything has changed except the price.

Seems that there are enough people in the market now that think the complete opposite of what I do currently, concerning the relation of price and fundamentals  

Not sure I understand what you mean here . . .

Are you saying that you don't believe bitcoin's fundamentals are strong and anyone buying has "the complete opposite" opinion of you?

Of course! As you can see by rpietila's older posts, he has always been uberbearish all of the time

P.S. Are smileys too cryptic for public?

[elux]

Of course the rapid fall has made me think about Bitcoin's chances. But without going into details, I don't think much anything has changed except the price.

When you think about buying or selling, then you should look at the price. And buy when it is low, sell when it is high.

H/T: /u/azop on reddit

[btcbug]

Of course the rapid fall has made me think about Bitcoin's chances. But without going into details, I don't think much anything has changed except the price.

When you think about buying or selling, then you should look at the price. And buy when it is low, sell when it is high.

H/T: /u/azop on reddit

Nice charts! Comparing to the last few spikes, the price has really dropped down on this one and it's screaming buy!

[rpietila]

"Let me be a free man, free to travel, free to stop, free to work, free to trade where I choose, free to choose my own teachers, free to follow the religion of my fathers, free to talk, think and act for myself — and I will obey every law or submit to the penalty"

-- Chief Joseph (1840-1904) of the Nez Perce Indians, in his speech at Lincoln Hall in Washington, DC on 14 January 1879.

[molecular]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.

So what is the *real* thing that give the value to bitcoin  ?

Bitcoin is backed by dreams.

[sgbett]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.

So what is the *real* thing that give the value to bitcoin  ?

Bitcoin is backed by dreams.

Whereas the US dollar is backed by the american dream!

[redsn0w]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.

So what is the *real* thing that give the value to bitcoin  ?

Bitcoin is backed by dreams.

Whereas the US dollar is backed by the american dream!

I very like your response @molecular ,   @sgbett  yes but in this "revolution" not only the americans believe in this dream, every citizen of the world believes in bitcoin ! (at least I hope ).