rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[brg444]

Are you implying the wall is from an early Bitcoin adopter trying to get more coins? Any chance a US government attempt at trouncing Bitcoin value?

Don't know.

Your last sentence.....You are selling your Estonia castle? This was to be the center of the Bitcoin universe, can you please elaborate?

Having a smiley does not seem to work. Yes, I mentioned now the first time that even Bitcoin castle may be for sale, if Bitcoin becomes cheap enough. If I sell it for Bitcoins, it just changes ownership to stronger hands, and can still become the center of Bitcoin universe.

Selling to an outsider would be a pity, but luckily that does not ever happen unless Bitcoin is thoroughly destroyed first, meaning that the castle also becomes useless for its intended purpose. 

I imagine this is an indication you are interested in accumulating BTC again.

[1714503601]

1714503601

[1714503601]

1714503601

[mmitech]

What BTC ETFs like COIN and other BTC investment funds need to do is to guarantee and show allocated coins, every client's holding is stored on their own individual publicly published and viewable address, rather than pooled in the total holdings account as happens on exchanges, this is like the best practice of PM funds like www.bullionvault.com except miles better as anyone can instantly see and prove that the funds are actually allocated to the clients rather than just take the business's and auditor's word for it.

Exchanges maintain a Data base and not the coins, what you demand is not a safe practice, a safe practic would be exactly what most exchanges are doing now, you deposit your funds they have your address on watch, when you get 3 confirmations (or 6 depends on the exchange) they input an entry to the database (or alter it) changing your old balance to your new one.... all the coins are offline and safe from heist.


anything else would be asking for trouble and can make management of funds and technical more complicated.

[JayJuanGee]

I just observed a wall of 30,000 BTC in Bitstamp. It was offered for sale at $300.

This is a very high wall, which has not been seen before in Bitstamp. Even in the old Gox era, 30k was a rare occurrence, the typical walls at that time (early 2013) were 10-20k.

The fiat value of the wall ($9 million USD) beats the historical walls of a few $100k's hands down.

Could this be the source of the 30k BTC?

https://blockchain.info/address/159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq?filter=1

But whose address is this and to where was it sent?  I am NOT very knowledgeable about how to read those addresses or decipher potential owners of the addresses... I mean we would be able to determine if such coins were sent to an exchange or sent to a known address - but we may not be able to determine if the coins are just sent from one private address to another private address, no?

[JayJuanGee]

What BTC ETFs like COIN and other BTC investment funds need to do is to guarantee and show allocated coins, every client's holding is stored on their own individual publicly published and viewable address, rather than pooled in the total holdings account as happens on exchanges, this is like the best practice of PM funds like www.bullionvault.com except miles better as anyone can instantly see and prove that the funds are actually allocated to the clients rather than just take the business's and auditor's word for it.

Exchanges maintain a Data base and not the coins, what you demand is not a safe practice, a safe practic would be exactly what most exchanges are doing now, you deposit your funds they have your address on watch, when you get 3 confirmations (or 6 depends on the exchange) they input an entry to the database (or alter it) changing your old balance to your new one.... all the coins are offline and safe from heist.


anything else would be asking for trouble and can make management of funds and technical more complicated.

The exact mechanism does NOT matter too much, but what Otoh and others seem to be proposing are mechanism upon which to audit exchanges or at least prevent them from (or lessen the likelihood that they can) engaging in variations of fractional reserve banking (or misrepresenting the number of coins that they actually hold).  If one system does NOT work then better to figure another system that can work to achieve such objectives... to work towards positive potential solutions rather than just asserting that won't work.

[BTCtrader71]

I just observed a wall of 30,000 BTC in Bitstamp. It was offered for sale at $300.

This is a very high wall, which has not been seen before in Bitstamp. Even in the old Gox era, 30k was a rare occurrence, the typical walls at that time (early 2013) were 10-20k.

The fiat value of the wall ($9 million USD) beats the historical walls of a few $100k's hands down.

Could this be the source of the 30k BTC?

https://blockchain.info/address/159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq?filter=1

But whose address is this and to where was it sent?  I am NOT very knowledgeable about how to read those addresses or decipher potential owners of the addresses... I mean we would be able to determine if such coins were sent to an exchange or sent to a known address - but we may not be able to determine if the coins are just sent from one private address to another private address, no?

All I can tell is:
- Its move coincided with the appearance of the sell wall a few hours ago.
- about 35,300 coins were deposited to this address from https://blockchain.info/address/19Gt9VKmmyMpMHEv6dkf8ddwmwddoSoJ8w on April 3, 2013
- Those 35k coins appear to have been accumulated in chunks of several thousand at a time between 8/2012 and 10/2012, when the price was 10-12 USD / BTC

So, potentially, it's someone who bought 35k bitcoins for about $350,000 in fall 2012, and liquidating now. Why? idk.

EDIT: fixed my math 

[PoS]

Bitcoin is all about confidence. The last weeks, months it took a real battering with every new coin coming out claiming to do things better and is in a position like Bitcoin was in 2011. Some of them have totally shotty code but the day is long. Without confidence it enters into a dead spiral, no price is low. Lucky i dont have 90 % of my money riding on it so i can bash it and the little money i did have on something i got back.

[mmitech]

What BTC ETFs like COIN and other BTC investment funds need to do is to guarantee and show allocated coins, every client's holding is stored on their own individual publicly published and viewable address, rather than pooled in the total holdings account as happens on exchanges, this is like the best practice of PM funds like www.bullionvault.com except miles better as anyone can instantly see and prove that the funds are actually allocated to the clients rather than just take the business's and auditor's word for it.

Exchanges maintain a Data base and not the coins, what you demand is not a safe practice, a safe practic would be exactly what most exchanges are doing now, you deposit your funds they have your address on watch, when you get 3 confirmations (or 6 depends on the exchange) they input an entry to the database (or alter it) changing your old balance to your new one.... all the coins are offline and safe from heist.


anything else would be asking for trouble and can make management of funds and technical more complicated.

The exact mechanism does NOT matter too much, but what Otoh and others seem to be proposing are mechanism upon which to audit exchanges or at least prevent them from (or lessen the likelihood that they can) engaging in variations of fractional reserve banking (or misrepresenting the number of coins that they actually hold).  If one system does NOT work then better to figure another system that can work to achieve such objectives... to work towards positive potential solutions rather than just asserting that won't work.

There is something of that kind suggested for development, it is called pooled reserves, but I doubt it will ever come to real world adoption.

[JayJuanGee]

I just observed a wall of 30,000 BTC in Bitstamp. It was offered for sale at $300.

This is a very high wall, which has not been seen before in Bitstamp. Even in the old Gox era, 30k was a rare occurrence, the typical walls at that time (early 2013) were 10-20k.

The fiat value of the wall ($9 million USD) beats the historical walls of a few $100k's hands down.

Could this be the source of the 30k BTC?

https://blockchain.info/address/159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq?filter=1

But whose address is this and to where was it sent?  I am NOT very knowledgeable about how to read those addresses or decipher potential owners of the addresses... I mean we would be able to determine if such coins were sent to an exchange or sent to a known address - but we may not be able to determine if the coins are just sent from one private address to another private address, no?

All I can tell is:
- Its move coincided with the appearance of the sell wall a few hours ago.
- about 35,300 coins were deposited to this address from https://blockchain.info/address/19Gt9VKmmyMpMHEv6dkf8ddwmwddoSoJ8w on April 3, 2013
- Those 35k coins appear to have been accumulated in chunks of several thousand at a time between 8/2012 and 10/2012, when the price was 10-12 USD / BTC

So, potentially, it's someone who bought 35k bitcoins for about $80,000 in fall 2012, and liquidating now. Why? idk.

Yeah, but we cannot necessarily conclude liquidation.. could be just moving .. .. or just in case or even having had negotiated some Over the Counter sale... or made a down payment on a castle?  Hard to really know if we cannot connect one of the addresses with some entity in order to know a little more about the entity and potentially some of their real world behaviors.... otherwise we are engaging in pure speculation without any direct evidence or reasonable inference of anything, no?

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin is all about confidence. The last weeks, months it took a real battering with every new coin coming out claiming to do things better and is in a position like Bitcoin was in 2011. Some of them have totally shotty code but the day is long. Without confidence it enters into a dead spiral, no price is low. Lucky i dont have 90 % of my money riding on it so i can bash it and the little money i did have on something i got back.

The price can be considered low, depending on the historical values and the investment into it etc etc... difficult to compare the other various coins to bitcoin because bitcoin is, at least up until now, so much heads and shoulders ahead of any of the competition including any that have even a fraction of its dwindling market cap.  but to some extent they are all dwindling together at varying rates but none are really catching up to bitcoin in any meaningful way, at least NOT so far.. but our assessment could be different in 6 months or a year or two years or five years.

[BTCtrader71]

I just observed a wall of 30,000 BTC in Bitstamp. It was offered for sale at $300.

This is a very high wall, which has not been seen before in Bitstamp. Even in the old Gox era, 30k was a rare occurrence, the typical walls at that time (early 2013) were 10-20k.

The fiat value of the wall ($9 million USD) beats the historical walls of a few $100k's hands down.

Could this be the source of the 30k BTC?

https://blockchain.info/address/159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq?filter=1

But whose address is this and to where was it sent?  I am NOT very knowledgeable about how to read those addresses or decipher potential owners of the addresses... I mean we would be able to determine if such coins were sent to an exchange or sent to a known address - but we may not be able to determine if the coins are just sent from one private address to another private address, no?

All I can tell is:
- Its move coincided with the appearance of the sell wall a few hours ago.
- about 35,300 coins were deposited to this address from https://blockchain.info/address/19Gt9VKmmyMpMHEv6dkf8ddwmwddoSoJ8w on April 3, 2013
- Those 35k coins appear to have been accumulated in chunks of several thousand at a time between 8/2012 and 10/2012, when the price was 10-12 USD / BTC

So, potentially, it's someone who bought 35k bitcoins for about $80,000 in fall 2012, and liquidating now. Why? idk.

Yeah, but we cannot necessarily conclude liquidation.. could be just moving .. .. or just in case or even having had negotiated some Over the Counter sale... or made a down payment on a castle?  Hard to really know if we cannot connect one of the addresses with some entity in order to know a little more about the entity and potentially some of their real world behaviors.... otherwise we are engaging in pure speculation without any direct evidence or reasonable inference of anything, no?

Correct. Temporal correlation is all we have to go on. And tbh I don't know exactly when the 30k bid wall appeared, other than that it happened prior to Risto's comment making note of it.

[rpietila]

Marketcapwise, it's hard to believe Bitcoin's troubles depend on altcoins. I have been a proponent of Monero (XMR) but that coin has like $3 million market cap. Even if all this money has been pulled from Bitcoin (most of it is), hardly makes a dent.

Other coins, Quark for example, only spent about $40k in mining, after that it has been PoS. Only this 40k is actual money, the rest is hot air.

I hope and believe that Bitcoin will leave needless alts in the dust as it starts its rise.

[JayJuanGee]

What BTC ETFs like COIN and other BTC investment funds need to do is to guarantee and show allocated coins, every client's holding is stored on their own individual publicly published and viewable address, rather than pooled in the total holdings account as happens on exchanges, this is like the best practice of PM funds like www.bullionvault.com except miles better as anyone can instantly see and prove that the funds are actually allocated to the clients rather than just take the business's and auditor's word for it.

Exchanges maintain a Data base and not the coins, what you demand is not a safe practice, a safe practic would be exactly what most exchanges are doing now, you deposit your funds they have your address on watch, when you get 3 confirmations (or 6 depends on the exchange) they input an entry to the database (or alter it) changing your old balance to your new one.... all the coins are offline and safe from heist.


anything else would be asking for trouble and can make management of funds and technical more complicated.

The exact mechanism does NOT matter too much, but what Otoh and others seem to be proposing are mechanism upon which to audit exchanges or at least prevent them from (or lessen the likelihood that they can) engaging in variations of fractional reserve banking (or misrepresenting the number of coins that they actually hold).  If one system does NOT work then better to figure another system that can work to achieve such objectives... to work towards positive potential solutions rather than just asserting that won't work.

There is something of that kind suggested for development, it is called pooled reserves, but I doubt it will ever come to real world adoption.

There are likely needs to explore these various possibilities in theory and if they seem feasible to attempt to implement some of them... surely these various possibilities are going to take a while in the real world to work out because there are also politics and money and brute force that can affect the direction(s) of various developments.. and as we know, NOT always does the best technology win and NOT always does justice prevail... But I would imagine to instill confidence in bitcoin, its value and the extent that it is protected from manipulation, there are going to need to develop some of these confidence inspiring infrastructural solutions to create accountability and to minimize the ability of centrailized entities to attempt to engage in fractional reserve banking with our bitcoin assets.

[robinwilliams]

Marketcapwise, it's hard to believe Bitcoin's troubles depend on altcoins. I have been a proponent of Monero (XMR) but that coin has like $3 million market cap. Even if all this money has been pulled from Bitcoin (most of it is), hardly makes a dent.

Other coins, Quark for example, only spent about $40k in mining, after that it has been PoS. Only this 40k is actual money, the rest is hot air.

I hope and believe that Bitcoin will leave needless alts in the dust as it starts its rise.

i do mostly agree about value of alts but people have lost (and gained) way more money than the total value market cap of the alts.

i guess all this flowed back into bitcoin with different owners (gambler -> scam dev -> pumper -> bitcoin -> fiat (bagholder keeps bag))

so total outflow is more than total market cap

[JayJuanGee]

So this is a "quality" TA thread? Does that mean rpietila predicted the current price? Did he?  

Quality TA would be to delete your post.   

[rpietila]

I imagine this is an indication you are interested in accumulating BTC again.

Well I don't want to make too small gains, but big gains are fine for me. The castle was bought when BTC was $675. So I am tempted to exchange it back for coins if it goes to $200. And then buy a castle again with 1/3 of the money when BTC is in reasonable prices.

Nothing is permanent in life.

[manfred]

What people seam to forget is that Bitcoin is primary eGold and secondary as a added bonus money. Instead of shifting tones of dirt to find some Gold a lot of numbers are moved to find Bitcoins. The fast majority of Gold is horded deep unterground and only little is used for jewellery or electronics. Money itself is near worthless and you do not "buy" money like for example a ripple, this is lunatic. Millions of ripples where given to the banks recently and i suppose to pay for it to get some, really. I think i know that from somewhere.
Bitcoin is a commodity and is fair produced and not free. It is exchanging a proven work done like someone digging a ditch can prove his work but it be damn hard to exchange his work, Bitcoin fixes that in a fair way.  

The value of a bitcoin see Satoshis quote in my sig

edit: Thats where the value is

[crazy_rabbit]

I imagine this is an indication you are interested in accumulating BTC again.

Well I don't want to make too small gains, but big gains are fine for me. The castle was bought when BTC was $675. So I am tempted to exchange it back for coins if it goes to $200. And then buy a castle again with 1/3 of the money when BTC is in reasonable prices.

Nothing is permanent in life.

For sure, if you can sell it that fast. Castles are more illiquid than Bitcoin!

[Biodom]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

[Erdogan]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.

[redsn0w]

I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.

So what is the *real* thing that give the value to bitcoin  ?