camosoul
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:09:46 AM |
|
we'll reach minimum block reward sooner / the total number of coins will bottom out....
My only concern is that this behavior will result in the DRK network never having the momentus hashrate that makes other blockchains untouchable. One 3TH/s ASIC would rape the whole network instantly. I'm not saying that X11 = SHA256 Double Round. But that ASICs are inevitable with anything that catches on enough to have value. We all hope it catches on simply because it's a good idea. But the value that comes with it will drive ASICs into X11. DGW3 certainly discourages it as the network hashrate is already reaching minimum with a few dozen GPU rigs... But it might be stifling it so much that the network will never have appreciable hash defense. If say, guvthugs decided to build just one "X11 Neptune" of their own, DRK breaks. None of this "buying masternodes" crap arguments. They really could buy all the hashpower they need without touching a GPU or the markets simply by building one custom ASIC. Dev cost on that is a few million bucks in bureaucracy free-to-them taxed money. This is why ASICs are actually a good thing for a coin. If you don't let your coin become an ASIC coin, then it takes one fat wallet to make one for themselves and your coin is borked. If your coin isn't using them, then it becomes a nuke they can drop on it. My hope is that DGW3+X11=ASICs still happen, but the reward is low enough that the ASIC's price will have to be sensible enough that anyone can buy it, thus avoiding centralization. But, that doesn't seem to be what is happening. If a coin stays GPU/CPU mine-able, then a clandestine FPG or ASIC becomes a cheap (in the eyes of it's creator who has way deep pockets) saboteur. You MUST let your coin escalate into ASICs or it's doomed by anyone who can afford to make The Bomb. Considering that summer is around, scrypt asics disastrous tape-out (nevertheless here), DRK price increasing, we will have TH network well before anyone actually sits down for an x11 blueprint. Then, by year end, LTC will be beat down like a dead horse, so all the Gridseends, A2 Innossilicon bla bla bla will just switch gears to profit... so x11. Litecoin will drop massively, rendering all scrypt ASICs "profit-money-cow-obsolete". Actually, someone did announce the world first x11 ASIC a few pages back... Why would the DRK hashrate get any higher at this point? It's already bottoming-out the reward. Why would anyone mine it? I love DRK and I'm not mining it. I even gave my video card to my son so he could mine with it (he uses windows), and he's getting bunk out of it. It's not even worth the time of typing the command. My point is that DGW3 may be too harsh. If your coin doesn't use ASICs, a single custom unit can be produced by deep money that hates you and your coin is dead. If it already makes no sense to buy GPUs to mine DRK, no one will make an ASIC for profit. That leaves the door open for guv to make The Bomb and drop it on every X11 coin there is. Your network HAS to have ASICs on it, or it'll never have the hashrate to save itself from those who can make The Bomb. I very much like the idea that mining stay in the hands of the common folk and well distributed. But that would have to come from a reasonably priced ASIC, not the avoidance of them. Being anti-ASIC makes a coin vulnerable in the long run. Essentially, it kills itself the moment it succeeds. The diff needs to allow for ASICs, but force them to be affordable. I really hope DRK/Evan has struck that chord, but it doesn't look like it...
|
. .OROCOIN. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ | | █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ | | █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ | | █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ |
|
|
|
GhostPlayer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:10:09 AM |
|
It was a joke by that poster You spoil sport, you...
|
|
|
|
blajde
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
Pre-sale - March 18
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:15:01 AM |
|
we'll reach minimum block reward sooner / the total number of coins will bottom out....
My only concern is that this behavior will result in the DRK network never having the momentus hashrate that makes other blockchains untouchable. One 3TH/s ASIC would rape the whole network instantly. I'm not saying that X11 = SHA256 Double Round. But that ASICs are inevitable with anything that catches on enough to have value. We all hope it catches on simply because it's a good idea. But the value that comes with it will drive ASICs into X11. DGW3 certainly discourages it as the network hashrate is already reaching minimum with a few dozen GPU rigs... But it might be stifling it so much that the network will never have appreciable hash defense. If say, guvthugs decided to build just one "X11 Neptune" of their own, DRK breaks. None of this "buying masternodes" crap arguments. They really could buy all the hashpower they need without touching a GPU or the markets simply by building one custom ASIC. Dev cost on that is a few million bucks in bureaucracy free-to-them taxed money. This is why ASICs are actually a good thing for a coin. If you don't let your coin become an ASIC coin, then it takes one fat wallet to make one for themselves and your coin is borked. If your coin isn't using them, then it becomes a nuke they can drop on it. My hope is that DGW3+X11=ASICs still happen, but the reward is low enough that the ASIC's price will have to be sensible enough that anyone can buy it, thus avoiding centralization. But, that doesn't seem to be what is happening. If a coin stays GPU/CPU mine-able, then a clandestine FPG or ASIC becomes a cheap (in the eyes of it's creator who has way deep pockets) saboteur. You MUST let your coin escalate into ASICs or it's doomed by anyone who can afford to make The Bomb. Considering that summer is around, scrypt asics disastrous tape-out (nevertheless here), DRK price increasing, we will have TH network well before anyone actually sits down for an x11 blueprint. Then, by year end, LTC will be beat down like a dead horse, so all the Gridseends, A2 Innossilicon bla bla bla will just switch gears to profit... so x11. Litecoin will drop massively, rendering all scrypt ASICs "profit-money-cow-obsolete". Actually, someone did announce the world first x11 ASIC a few pages back... Why would the DRK hashrate get any higher at this point? It's already bottoming-out the reward. Why would anyone mine it? I love DRK and I'm not mining it. I even gave my video card to my son so he could mine with it (he uses windows), and he's getting bunk out of it. It's not even worth the time of typing the command. My point is that DGW3 may be too harsh. If your coin doesn't use ASICs, a single custom unit can be produced by deep money that hates you and your coin is dead. If it already makes no sense to buy GPUs to mine DRK, no one will make an ASIC for profit. That leaves the door open for guv to make The Bomb and drop it on every X11 coin there is. Your network HAS to have ASICs on it, or it'll never have the hashrate to save itself from those who can make The Bomb. it's only a "joke" due to the current valuation. When you fight over 0.0001 DRK in the future for a reason, different tales will be told. Also it's a "joke" because people might just have this vision.
|
|
|
|
camosoul
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:17:47 AM |
|
we'll reach minimum block reward sooner / the total number of coins will bottom out....
My only concern is that this behavior will result in the DRK network never having the momentus hashrate that makes other blockchains untouchable. One 3TH/s ASIC would rape the whole network instantly. I'm not saying that X11 = SHA256 Double Round. But that ASICs are inevitable with anything that catches on enough to have value. We all hope it catches on simply because it's a good idea. But the value that comes with it will drive ASICs into X11. DGW3 certainly discourages it as the network hashrate is already reaching minimum with a few dozen GPU rigs... But it might be stifling it so much that the network will never have appreciable hash defense. If say, guvthugs decided to build just one "X11 Neptune" of their own, DRK breaks. None of this "buying masternodes" crap arguments. They really could buy all the hashpower they need without touching a GPU or the markets simply by building one custom ASIC. Dev cost on that is a few million bucks in bureaucracy free-to-them taxed money. This is why ASICs are actually a good thing for a coin. If you don't let your coin become an ASIC coin, then it takes one fat wallet to make one for themselves and your coin is borked. If your coin isn't using them, then it becomes a nuke they can drop on it. My hope is that DGW3+X11=ASICs still happen, but the reward is low enough that the ASIC's price will have to be sensible enough that anyone can buy it, thus avoiding centralization. But, that doesn't seem to be what is happening. If a coin stays GPU/CPU mine-able, then a clandestine FPG or ASIC becomes a cheap (in the eyes of it's creator who has way deep pockets) saboteur. You MUST let your coin escalate into ASICs or it's doomed by anyone who can afford to make The Bomb. Considering that summer is around, scrypt asics disastrous tape-out (nevertheless here), DRK price increasing, we will have TH network well before anyone actually sits down for an x11 blueprint. Then, by year end, LTC will be beat down like a dead horse, so all the Gridseends, A2 Innossilicon bla bla bla will just switch gears to profit... so x11. Litecoin will drop massively, rendering all scrypt ASICs "profit-money-cow-obsolete". Actually, someone did announce the world first x11 ASIC a few pages back... Why would the DRK hashrate get any higher at this point? It's already bottoming-out the reward. Why would anyone mine it? I love DRK and I'm not mining it. I even gave my video card to my son so he could mine with it (he uses windows), and he's getting bunk out of it. It's not even worth the time of typing the command. My point is that DGW3 may be too harsh. If your coin doesn't use ASICs, a single custom unit can be produced by deep money that hates you and your coin is dead. If it already makes no sense to buy GPUs to mine DRK, no one will make an ASIC for profit. That leaves the door open for guv to make The Bomb and drop it on every X11 coin there is. Your network HAS to have ASICs on it, or it'll never have the hashrate to save itself from those who can make The Bomb. it's only a "joke" due to the current valuation. When you fight over 0.0001 DRK in the future for a reason, different tales will be told. Also it's a "joke" because people might just have this vision. I think you responded to the wrong message... ;-)
|
. .OROCOIN. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ | | █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ | | █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ | | █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ |
|
|
|
camosoul
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:24:14 AM |
|
One note though: Whether DRK will be profitable to mine or not, will not only depend on the block reward but also coin price. If, by the time X11 asics come, there are like 50-80-100 x11 coins, it might be the case that many of them might be more profitable to mine. The large number of x11 coins, is, in a sense, a guarantee for ASICs appearing at some point.
Sure, an abundance of X11 coins would make ASICs appear for X11. But, if none of them are pointed at a DRK pool, we still have The Bomb scenario, but then ANYONE could drop it. How many SHA256DR ShitCoins could be owned by my 30GH/s BFL box? It's not even worth the effort to plug it in if profit is y motivation. But I'm thinking of an entity that wouldn't even notice the money needed to design an ASIC, who is not motivated by profit, but control and destruction. An entity hell-bent on enslavement of the masses; which masses often ask to be enslaved... I see the problem being some X11 ShitCoin being more profitable than DRK. Say, an X11 version of DogeCoin? It's an absolute JokeCoin. But, it has a higher market cap than DRK, doesn't it? Steve Jobs knew it; Sunshine and Stupidity are the only unlimited resources on Earth. Leverage stupidity and you win even if your idea is terrible. Good ideas fail every day because the masses are stupid. And in the bigger picture... Using tor and cryptoexchanges, cross-coin trading already gives us anonymity... I'm not trying to troll. One has to play Devil's Advocate to find the holes in the plan and shore them up. There are definitely holes, but I'm wondering if there is even a reason to fix it...
|
. .OROCOIN. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ | | █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ | | █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ | | █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ |
|
|
|
nzminer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1001
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:32:59 AM |
|
Looks like VTC is following DRK up now.. The anti ASIC alliance getting stronger...
Yeah it very well is, but i must say, that ASIC's are inevitable for any POW coin, as much as i hate them, i think in the end its the only way to go, because the energy consumption is crazy and look at the difficulty for darkcoin now i only get about 1 DRK a day max now, even if the price of them went, up, so does the hashrate and makes them even harder to mine.
|
NEM, THE SECURE, SCALABLE BLOCKCHAIN [NEM.IO] [T.ME/NEMRED]
|
|
|
nzminer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1001
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:33:53 AM |
|
One note though: Whether DRK will be profitable to mine or not, will not only depend on the block reward but also coin price. If, by the time X11 asics come, there are like 50-80-100 x11 coins, it might be the case that many of them might be more profitable to mine. The large number of x11 coins, is, in a sense, a guarantee for ASICs appearing at some point.
Sure, an abundance of X11 coins would make ASICs appear for X11. But, if none of them are pointed at a DRK pool, we still have The Bomb scenario, but then ANYONE could drop it. How many SHA256DR ShitCoins could be owned by my 30GH/s BFL box? It's not even worth the effort to plug it in if profit is y motivation. But I'm thinking of an entity that wouldn't even notice the money needed to design an ASIC, who is not motivated by profit, but control and destruction. An entity hell-bent on enslavement of the masses; which masses often ask to be enslaved... I see the problem being some X11 ShitCoin being more profitable than DRK. Say, an X11 version of DogeCoin? It's an absolute JokeCoin. But, it has a higher market cap than DRK, doesn't it? Steve Jobs knew it; Sunshine and Stupidity are the only unlimited resources on Earth. Leverage stupidity and you win even if your idea is terrible. Good ideas fail every day because the masses are stupid. And in the bigger picture... Using tor and cryptoexchanges, cross-coin trading already gives us anonymity... I'm not trying to troll. One has to play Devil's Advocate to find the holes in the plan and shore them up. There are definitely holes, but I'm wondering if there is even a reason to fix it... Hirocoin comes to mind!
|
NEM, THE SECURE, SCALABLE BLOCKCHAIN [NEM.IO] [T.ME/NEMRED]
|
|
|
thelonecrouton
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:34:13 AM |
|
The Bomb...
...can be rendered instantly useless by a one line change of code. And that one line change of code should be sat ready somewhere if it's ever needed.
|
|
|
|
GhostPlayer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:35:24 AM |
|
One note though: Whether DRK will be profitable to mine or not, will not only depend on the block reward but also coin price. If, by the time X11 asics come, there are like 50-80-100 x11 coins, it might be the case that many of them might be more profitable to mine. The large number of x11 coins, is, in a sense, a guarantee for ASICs appearing at some point.
Sure, an abundance of X11 coins would make ASICs appear for X11. But, if none of them are pointed at a DRK pool, we still have The Bomb scenario, but then ANYONE could drop it. How many SHA256DR ShitCoins could be owned by my 30GH/s BFL box? It's not even worth the effort to plug it in if profit is y motivation. But I'm thinking of an entity that wouldn't even notice the money needed to design an ASIC, who is not motivated by profit, but control and destruction. An entity hell-bent on enslavement of the masses; which masses often ask to be enslaved... I see the problem being some X11 ShitCoin being more profitable than DRK. Say, an X11 version of DogeCoin? It's an absolute JokeCoin. But, it has a higher market cap than DRK, doesn't it? Steve Jobs knew it; Sunshine and Stupidity are the only unlimited resources on Earth. Leverage stupidity and you win even if your idea is terrible. Good ideas fail every day because the masses are stupid. And in the bigger picture... Using tor and cryptoexchanges, cross-coin trading already gives us anonymity... I'm not trying to troll. One has to play Devil's Advocate to find the holes in the plan and shore them up. There are definitely holes, but I'm wondering if there is even a reason to fix it... No troll at all, good points, just different views. I see it this way. It takes the exact same amount of FIAT & time & human resources to develop an ASIC for x11. Big money is in Bitcoin. Train loosers developed scrypt & scrypt-n ASCIs. Most of these are getting really really burnt. Buyers too! So in essence, yes it will happen, no I am not worried. I believe they are looking out for innovation, but I believe they're more worried of not loosing to a class action suit for fraud (delivery, pre-order, under spec, dangerous hardware, flunk warranties, etc)
|
|
|
|
GhostPlayer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:38:33 AM |
|
The Bomb...
...can be rendered instantly useless by a one line change of code. And that one line change of code should be sat ready somewhere if it's ever needed. True, litecoin is example... they dont want to fork because, quite literally "too much work, too risky, we would loose the community, merchants, exchanges bla bla bla" Which is utterly bullsh!t. Lee never believed in litecoin (said so himself), works for Coinbase full time and consults for BTC China. He works full time for BTC !! LTC sold its soul to the devil ASIC, and will not fork because they became greedy and huge LTC wealth went to buy ASICs. They shot themselves on the foot. They should have rolled-out a fork-plan as soon as ASICs were announced.
|
|
|
|
Ed4252
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:40:02 AM |
|
Darlcoin hasn't been through a bitcoin mini bubble yet, but is anyone willing to make some future bold predictions on the price?
|
|
|
|
kaene
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:41:52 AM Last edit: May 12, 2014, 10:59:48 AM by kaene |
|
I did some calculations, and unless I'm mistaken, assuming block reward goes down to 5 within the next days and diff stays there from now own, we won't even see the 11M coins, more like 10M coins ... (hopefully someone will review the calculations and confirm
Currently there are 4,268,791DRK, and the coin halves every 2 years, that means next halve will happen after 353,283 blocks, that will be after 613 days more or less, so by Jan-Feb 2016 we will have 6,035,206 DRK. After that, as follows:
Feb 2018 +1,766,415 = 7,801,621 Feb 2020 +1,051,200 = 8,852,821 Feb 2022 +525,600 = 9,378,421 Feb 2024 +262,800 = 9,641,221 Feb 2026 +131,400 = 9,772,621 Feb 2028 +65,700 = 9,838,321 Feb 2030 +32,850 = 9,871,171 Feb 2032 +16,425 = 9,887,596 ...
So, unless I calculated it wrongly, it looks like the cap will be around 10M, even if block reward needs 1 or 2 months to end up at 5, we are in any case talking about less than 11M DRKs.
Edit: the calculations are wrong, as JGCMiner stated, the coin doesn't halve but decreases 7% yearly. That means the cap is around 19M assuming block reward goes down to 5 within the next weeks. Some non official websites still have old information about this: http://altcoins.com/drk-darkcoin-cpu-anonymous-coin.htmlhttps://cryptsy.freshdesk.com/support/discussions/topics/75119http://crypto-coins-table.com/coins/DRK/index.php
|
|
|
|
thelonecrouton
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:42:35 AM |
|
Darlcoin hasn't been through a bitcoin mini bubble yet, but is anyone willing to make some future bold predictions on the price?
Yes: it will go up.
|
|
|
|
JGCMiner
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:44:55 AM |
|
we'll reach minimum block reward sooner / the total number of coins will bottom out....
My only concern is that this behavior will result in the DRK network never having the momentus hashrate that makes other blockchains untouchable. One 3TH/s ASIC would rape the whole network instantly. I'm not saying that X11 = SHA256 Double Round. But that ASICs are inevitable with anything that catches on enough to have value. We all hope it catches on simply because it's a good idea. But the value that comes with it will drive ASICs into X11. DGW3 certainly discourages it as the network hashrate is already reaching minimum with a few dozen GPU rigs... But it might be stifling it so much that the network will never have appreciable hash defense. If say, guvthugs decided to build just one "X11 Neptune" of their own, DRK breaks. None of this "buying masternodes" crap arguments. They really could buy all the hashpower they need without touching a GPU or the markets simply by building one custom ASIC. Dev cost on that is a few million bucks in bureaucracy free-to-them taxed money. This is why ASICs are actually a good thing for a coin. If you don't let your coin become an ASIC coin, then it takes one fat wallet to make one for themselves and your coin is borked. If your coin isn't using them, then it becomes a nuke they can drop on it. My hope is that DGW3+X11=ASICs still happen, but the reward is low enough that the ASIC's price will have to be sensible enough that anyone can buy it, thus avoiding centralization. But, that doesn't seem to be what is happening. If a coin stays GPU/CPU mine-able, then a clandestine FPG or ASIC becomes a cheap (in the eyes of it's creator who has way deep pockets) saboteur. You MUST let your coin escalate into ASICs or it's doomed by anyone who can afford to make The Bomb. Considering that summer is around, scrypt asics disastrous tape-out (nevertheless here), DRK price increasing, we will have TH network well before anyone actually sits down for an x11 blueprint. Then, by year end, LTC will be beat down like a dead horse, so all the Gridseends, A2 Innossilicon bla bla bla will just switch gears to profit... so x11. Litecoin will drop massively, rendering all scrypt ASICs "profit-money-cow-obsolete". Actually, someone did announce the world first x11 ASIC a few pages back... Why would the DRK hashrate get any higher at this point? It's already bottoming-out the reward. Why would anyone mine it? I love DRK and I'm not mining it. I even gave my video card to my son so he could mine with it (he uses windows), and he's getting bunk out of it. It's not even worth the time of typing the command. My point is that DGW3 may be too harsh. If your coin doesn't use ASICs, a single custom unit can be produced by deep money that hates you and your coin is dead. If it already makes no sense to buy GPUs to mine DRK, no one will make an ASIC for profit. That leaves the door open for guv to make The Bomb and drop it on every X11 coin there is. Your network HAS to have ASICs on it, or it'll never have the hashrate to save itself from those who can make The Bomb. I very much like the idea that mining stay in the hands of the common folk and well distributed. But that would have to come from a reasonably priced ASIC, not the avoidance of them. Being anti-ASIC makes a coin vulnerable in the long run. Essentially, it kills itself the moment it succeeds. The diff needs to allow for ASICs, but force them to be affordable. I really hope DRK/Evan has struck that chord, but it doesn't look like it... I did some calculations, and unless I'm mistaken, assuming block reward goes down to 5 within the next days and diff stays there from now own, we won't even see the 11M coins, more like 10M coins ... (hopefully someone will review the calculations and confirm
Currently there are 4,268,791DRK, and the coin halves every 2 years, that means next halve will happen after 353,283 blocks, that will be after 613 days more or less, so by Jan-Feb 2016 we will have 6,035,206 DRK. After that, as follows:
Feb 2018 +1,766,415 = 7,801,621 Feb 2020 +1,051,200 = 8,852,821 Feb 2022 +525600 = 9,378,421 Feb 2024 +262800 = 9,641,221 Feb 2026 +131400 = 9,772,621 Feb 2028 +65700 = 9,838,321 Feb 2030 +32850 = 9,871,171 Feb 2032 +16425 = 9,887,596 ...
So, unless I calculated it wrongly, it looks like the cap will be around 10M, even if block reward needs 1 or 2 months to end up at 5, we are in any case talking about less than 11M DRKs.
The coin does not halve every 2 years. The block reward decreases 7% every year. There will be about 11 millions coins minted from the point we reach and stay at the 5 coin reward -- check the chart posted a few pages back. That was originally from Evan.
|
|
|
|
kaene
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:50:42 AM |
|
we'll reach minimum block reward sooner / the total number of coins will bottom out....
My only concern is that this behavior will result in the DRK network never having the momentus hashrate that makes other blockchains untouchable. One 3TH/s ASIC would rape the whole network instantly. I'm not saying that X11 = SHA256 Double Round. But that ASICs are inevitable with anything that catches on enough to have value. We all hope it catches on simply because it's a good idea. But the value that comes with it will drive ASICs into X11. DGW3 certainly discourages it as the network hashrate is already reaching minimum with a few dozen GPU rigs... But it might be stifling it so much that the network will never have appreciable hash defense. If say, guvthugs decided to build just one "X11 Neptune" of their own, DRK breaks. None of this "buying masternodes" crap arguments. They really could buy all the hashpower they need without touching a GPU or the markets simply by building one custom ASIC. Dev cost on that is a few million bucks in bureaucracy free-to-them taxed money. This is why ASICs are actually a good thing for a coin. If you don't let your coin become an ASIC coin, then it takes one fat wallet to make one for themselves and your coin is borked. If your coin isn't using them, then it becomes a nuke they can drop on it. My hope is that DGW3+X11=ASICs still happen, but the reward is low enough that the ASIC's price will have to be sensible enough that anyone can buy it, thus avoiding centralization. But, that doesn't seem to be what is happening. If a coin stays GPU/CPU mine-able, then a clandestine FPG or ASIC becomes a cheap (in the eyes of it's creator who has way deep pockets) saboteur. You MUST let your coin escalate into ASICs or it's doomed by anyone who can afford to make The Bomb. Considering that summer is around, scrypt asics disastrous tape-out (nevertheless here), DRK price increasing, we will have TH network well before anyone actually sits down for an x11 blueprint. Then, by year end, LTC will be beat down like a dead horse, so all the Gridseends, A2 Innossilicon bla bla bla will just switch gears to profit... so x11. Litecoin will drop massively, rendering all scrypt ASICs "profit-money-cow-obsolete". Actually, someone did announce the world first x11 ASIC a few pages back... Why would the DRK hashrate get any higher at this point? It's already bottoming-out the reward. Why would anyone mine it? I love DRK and I'm not mining it. I even gave my video card to my son so he could mine with it (he uses windows), and he's getting bunk out of it. It's not even worth the time of typing the command. My point is that DGW3 may be too harsh. If your coin doesn't use ASICs, a single custom unit can be produced by deep money that hates you and your coin is dead. If it already makes no sense to buy GPUs to mine DRK, no one will make an ASIC for profit. That leaves the door open for guv to make The Bomb and drop it on every X11 coin there is. Your network HAS to have ASICs on it, or it'll never have the hashrate to save itself from those who can make The Bomb. I very much like the idea that mining stay in the hands of the common folk and well distributed. But that would have to come from a reasonably priced ASIC, not the avoidance of them. Being anti-ASIC makes a coin vulnerable in the long run. Essentially, it kills itself the moment it succeeds. The diff needs to allow for ASICs, but force them to be affordable. I really hope DRK/Evan has struck that chord, but it doesn't look like it... I did some calculations, and unless I'm mistaken, assuming block reward goes down to 5 within the next days and diff stays there from now own, we won't even see the 11M coins, more like 10M coins ... (hopefully someone will review the calculations and confirm
Currently there are 4,268,791DRK, and the coin halves every 2 years, that means next halve will happen after 353,283 blocks, that will be after 613 days more or less, so by Jan-Feb 2016 we will have 6,035,206 DRK. After that, as follows:
Feb 2018 +1,766,415 = 7,801,621 Feb 2020 +1,051,200 = 8,852,821 Feb 2022 +525600 = 9,378,421 Feb 2024 +262800 = 9,641,221 Feb 2026 +131400 = 9,772,621 Feb 2028 +65700 = 9,838,321 Feb 2030 +32850 = 9,871,171 Feb 2032 +16425 = 9,887,596 ...
So, unless I calculated it wrongly, it looks like the cap will be around 10M, even if block reward needs 1 or 2 months to end up at 5, we are in any case talking about less than 11M DRKs.
The coin does not half every 2 years. The block reward decreases 7% every year. There will be 11 millions coins minted from the point we reach and stay at the 5 coin reward -- check the chart posted a few pages back. That was originally from Evan. OK, that's changes it, my mistake. I found that information in some non official websites (official website is down for me)
|
|
|
|
toknormal
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3066
Merit: 1188
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:52:42 AM |
|
See what I mean ?
The 4 hour MA has stayed wide to the upside. The EMA has just flipped wide after threatening to converge.
The 4hr MACD is now almost asymptotic with the signal line after the prospect of a fairly brisk puncture a day ago.
1 hr MACD histogram is still a bit bearish but converging all the same - maybe 12 to 24 hours away from a level off / turn around.
This doesn't look like an impending plummet to 50 to me. Looks more like people are sh*t scared of losing their coins and are clinging to them for dear life.
|
|
|
|
GhostPlayer
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:53:21 AM |
|
also, cannot wget the rc. hmmm... tasty....
|
|
|
|
Donho
Member
Offline
Activity: 89
Merit: 10
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:53:42 AM |
|
we'll reach minimum block reward sooner / the total number of coins will bottom out....
My only concern is that this behavior will result in the DRK network never having the momentus hashrate that makes other blockchains untouchable. One 3TH/s ASIC would rape the whole network instantly. I'm not saying that X11 = SHA256 Double Round. But that ASICs are inevitable with anything that catches on enough to have value. We all hope it catches on simply because it's a good idea. But the value that comes with it will drive ASICs into X11. DGW3 certainly discourages it as the network hashrate is already reaching minimum with a few dozen GPU rigs... But it might be stifling it so much that the network will never have appreciable hash defense. If say, guvthugs decided to build just one "X11 Neptune" of their own, DRK breaks. None of this "buying masternodes" crap arguments. They really could buy all the hashpower they need without touching a GPU or the markets simply by building one custom ASIC. Dev cost on that is a few million bucks in bureaucracy free-to-them taxed money. This is why ASICs are actually a good thing for a coin. If you don't let your coin become an ASIC coin, then it takes one fat wallet to make one for themselves and your coin is borked. If your coin isn't using them, then it becomes a nuke they can drop on it. My hope is that DGW3+X11=ASICs still happen, but the reward is low enough that the ASIC's price will have to be sensible enough that anyone can buy it, thus avoiding centralization. But, that doesn't seem to be what is happening. If a coin stays GPU/CPU mine-able, then a clandestine FPG or ASIC becomes a cheap (in the eyes of it's creator who has way deep pockets) saboteur. You MUST let your coin escalate into ASICs or it's doomed by anyone who can afford to make The Bomb. Considering that summer is around, scrypt asics disastrous tape-out (nevertheless here), DRK price increasing, we will have TH network well before anyone actually sits down for an x11 blueprint. Then, by year end, LTC will be beat down like a dead horse, so all the Gridseends, A2 Innossilicon bla bla bla will just switch gears to profit... so x11. Litecoin will drop massively, rendering all scrypt ASICs "profit-money-cow-obsolete". Actually, someone did announce the world first x11 ASIC a few pages back... Why would the DRK hashrate get any higher at this point? It's already bottoming-out the reward. Why would anyone mine it? I love DRK and I'm not mining it. I even gave my video card to my son so he could mine with it (he uses windows), and he's getting bunk out of it. It's not even worth the time of typing the command. My point is that DGW3 may be too harsh. If your coin doesn't use ASICs, a single custom unit can be produced by deep money that hates you and your coin is dead. If it already makes no sense to buy GPUs to mine DRK, no one will make an ASIC for profit. That leaves the door open for guv to make The Bomb and drop it on every X11 coin there is. Your network HAS to have ASICs on it, or it'll never have the hashrate to save itself from those who can make The Bomb. I very much like the idea that mining stay in the hands of the common folk and well distributed. But that would have to come from a reasonably priced ASIC, not the avoidance of them. Being anti-ASIC makes a coin vulnerable in the long run. Essentially, it kills itself the moment it succeeds. The diff needs to allow for ASICs, but force them to be affordable. I really hope DRK/Evan has struck that chord, but it doesn't look like it... Why wouldn't it get higher? Just because we get nearer to the minimum reward? 1. More people getting interested in DRK -> more miners -> higher Hashrate. 2. More people getting interested in DRK -> price rises -> mining becomes more profitable -> higher Hashrate These are fundamentals of Crypto in General and they won't change just because we get closer to the minimum reward which is also in direct correlation to the TOTAL number of coins ever minted! Meaning you will mine less coins but those coins are scarcer (so more valuable)!
|
|
|
|
JGCMiner
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:54:54 AM |
|
we'll reach minimum block reward sooner / the total number of coins will bottom out....
My only concern is that this behavior will result in the DRK network never having the momentus hashrate that makes other blockchains untouchable. One 3TH/s ASIC would rape the whole network instantly. I'm not saying that X11 = SHA256 Double Round. But that ASICs are inevitable with anything that catches on enough to have value. We all hope it catches on simply because it's a good idea. But the value that comes with it will drive ASICs into X11. DGW3 certainly discourages it as the network hashrate is already reaching minimum with a few dozen GPU rigs... But it might be stifling it so much that the network will never have appreciable hash defense. If say, guvthugs decided to build just one "X11 Neptune" of their own, DRK breaks. None of this "buying masternodes" crap arguments. They really could buy all the hashpower they need without touching a GPU or the markets simply by building one custom ASIC. Dev cost on that is a few million bucks in bureaucracy free-to-them taxed money. This is why ASICs are actually a good thing for a coin. If you don't let your coin become an ASIC coin, then it takes one fat wallet to make one for themselves and your coin is borked. If your coin isn't using them, then it becomes a nuke they can drop on it. My hope is that DGW3+X11=ASICs still happen, but the reward is low enough that the ASIC's price will have to be sensible enough that anyone can buy it, thus avoiding centralization. But, that doesn't seem to be what is happening. If a coin stays GPU/CPU mine-able, then a clandestine FPG or ASIC becomes a cheap (in the eyes of it's creator who has way deep pockets) saboteur. You MUST let your coin escalate into ASICs or it's doomed by anyone who can afford to make The Bomb. Considering that summer is around, scrypt asics disastrous tape-out (nevertheless here), DRK price increasing, we will have TH network well before anyone actually sits down for an x11 blueprint. Then, by year end, LTC will be beat down like a dead horse, so all the Gridseends, A2 Innossilicon bla bla bla will just switch gears to profit... so x11. Litecoin will drop massively, rendering all scrypt ASICs "profit-money-cow-obsolete". Actually, someone did announce the world first x11 ASIC a few pages back... Why would the DRK hashrate get any higher at this point? It's already bottoming-out the reward. Why would anyone mine it? I love DRK and I'm not mining it. I even gave my video card to my son so he could mine with it (he uses windows), and he's getting bunk out of it. It's not even worth the time of typing the command. My point is that DGW3 may be too harsh. If your coin doesn't use ASICs, a single custom unit can be produced by deep money that hates you and your coin is dead. If it already makes no sense to buy GPUs to mine DRK, no one will make an ASIC for profit. That leaves the door open for guv to make The Bomb and drop it on every X11 coin there is. Your network HAS to have ASICs on it, or it'll never have the hashrate to save itself from those who can make The Bomb. I very much like the idea that mining stay in the hands of the common folk and well distributed. But that would have to come from a reasonably priced ASIC, not the avoidance of them. Being anti-ASIC makes a coin vulnerable in the long run. Essentially, it kills itself the moment it succeeds. The diff needs to allow for ASICs, but force them to be affordable. I really hope DRK/Evan has struck that chord, but it doesn't look like it... I am not sure if I understand the concern. Price, difficulty (i.e. net hashrate), and popularity go hand and hand since this is a free market. If DRK becomes popular enough for "govthugs" to even entertain the idea of developing private ASICs then the price must be MUCH higher and thus profitable to mine (even at a 5 coin reward). Also, DGW3 is not necessarily related to the block reward. That formula could be changed while leaving DGW3 alone. (still would be hardfork though) Why wouldn't it get higher? Just because we get nearer to the minimum reward? 1. More people getting interested in DRK -> more miners -> higher Hashrate. 2. More people getting interested in DRK -> price rises -> mining becomes more profitable -> higher Hashrate
These are fundamentals of Crypto in General and they won't change just because we get closer to the minimum reward which is also in direct correlation to the TOTAL number of coins ever minted! Meaning you will mine less coins but those coins are scarcer!
Exactly this! Well put. Hashrate, popularly and price are linked.
|
|
|
|
miningpoolhub
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1006
Mining Pool Hub
|
|
May 12, 2014, 10:57:16 AM |
|
How can I confirm that new stratum (NOMP) works well on RC2. I could find the block but, couldn't check masternode payout transactions info in block explorer ( http://23.23.186.131:1234/chain/DarkCoin <- testnet block explorer is not working now) If I find a block on testnet, is it enough for testing? I got 500 coins, but I thought I must get 450 coins. Isn't it?
|
|
|
|
|