No you don't -- your guessing.
And frankly your know-all-attitude is rather annoying... whether you're right or wrong. No one "knows" what the relative marketcap of DRK to BTC should be today or will be in the future. You are no better than the DRK will be "$1000 by the end of the week" people.
ok, lets think this through (With my "know all attitude" which stems from having spent too much time in alt coin threads that were all going rival bitcoin at one time or another and balloon in price to kingdom come but then died and lost a lot of gullible investors a lot of money).
We'll look at 3 things: role of asset, market technicals and market fundamentals - at least as far as the scope of a single post allows.
[1] - Role of Asset. Why are most people in Darkcoin ?
They are in this asset, not as an investment but as a HEDGE for Bitcoin since most people have a majority invested in BTC and a minority in alts (It's reasonable to assume this since BTC is the reserve currency against which everything else is measured. If your DRK went down in price against Bitcoin you wouldn't be very happy even if the number of DRK's you held increased).
DRK is now being seen as one of the leading hedges for bitcoin investment. In particular, it hedges well against a possible perception of Bitcoin's blockchain being too transparent.
But the idea of a hedge is that it works opposite to your main investment. So if you picked a good hedge, it will go up if your main asset goes down for the reasons that you were hedging against, thereby offsetting the losses on the primary asset. Conversely, people shouldn't be surprised if the hedge goes down when the main asset rises.
In turn, Monero is a good hedge for Darkcoin because it uses an alternative technological approach, and so we are now seeing its value rise as well. A sensible investment strategy therefore might be a 70, 20, 10 split between BTC, DRK and MRO respectively (if you were a DRK fan) or a 70, 20, 10 in Monero's favour as the main hedge (If you were a MRO fan).
Note, that one of the things which makes it potentially NOT a hedge is if you can't control the transparency of money that you ** receive **. I'm not sure about this and need to do more research - maybe someone can clear it up. But most people are more worried about keeping their income private than their expenditure. If transactions are not opaque by default and you have to hope that your customers click "use Darksend" every time they send you a payment then Darkcoin is basically no better than Dark wallet. For me, to be effective as a hedge, the whole network needs to be dark.
[2] - Market Technicals
When we look at Bitcoin vs Darkcoin, they are at opposite ends of the price curve in their own particular markets. Bitcoin is at the bottom, Darkcoin is at the top. BTC has gone through a 5 month consolidation, during which it compressed down to less than half it's peak value. DRK on the other hand has inflated by about 1000% in the space of about 2-3 weeks. So from a purely technical perspective, it gives DRK a major challenge to further accrue value against Bitcoin. Not saying it won't do it - it may have some way to go yet, I'm just pointing this out in response to the claim that "I am guessing"
[3] - Market Fundamentals
What are the single biggest developments on the horizon for Bitcoin and Darkcoin respectively that may impact the market ?
For Darkcoin, it's obviously the arrival of the Masternode phase of the coin's technical evolution and more long term, the adoption of the Cryptonote technology (I don't now if that's official or just an off hand remark by the dev).
For Bitcoin I'd say that it's the prospect of the Winklevoss ETF receiving final approval and going live on the New York SE. I don't know if people actually realise what a huge deal that is - it will have taken the best part of 2 years to pass through the various approval stages. It will open the door to institutional funding and send Bitcoin on the next phase of its price evolution.
...
If you think that is "guessing" then please post your own "guess" and I'll gladly read it with interest. I'm afraid I can't apologise for the "know it all" attitude because I happen to have quite a lot of money in this coin and I'm sick of spending time in alt coin threads full of B.S. about what huge price the coin's going to have in a years time and nothing about why it might have that price other than "great dev, great community", followed promptly by a puff of white smoke and a stampede for the door.
