BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[jl2012]

New high since 2014: -0.84

Date:    4-May-2017
BETI:   -0.840
VWAP:    1540.55
x:    2483
a:    0.00335
b:    -0.15071
Rsq:    0.80331
The day's expected price:    3567.32
Actual price / expected price:   43.18%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   384.07
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23094.35
Predicted date for today's price:    26-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -250.28
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335492477428623++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.150708216888686+%29   

[rpietila]

jl2012,

Thank you for this service. We appreciate. WTRYs, etc.

[jl2012]

New high: -0.833

Date:    5-May-2017
BETI:   -0.833
VWAP:    1554.61
x:    2484
a:    0.00335
b:    -0.15004
Rsq:    0.80339
The day's expected price:    3574.51
Actual price / expected price:   43.49%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   384.84
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23140.89
Predicted date for today's price:    29-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -248.23
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335411393062548++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.150035741705351+%29   

[DoktorKopf]

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

[jl2012]

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

[Kramerc]

jl, I see previous bull market support between -0.5 and -0.25, so I assume that is our next resistance.

What is the approximate price around that zone, if possible?

Cheers!

[jl2012]

Date:    6-May-2017
BETI:   -0.843
VWAP:    1541.43
x:    2485
a:    0.00335
b:    -0.14936
Rsq:    0.80347
The day's expected price:    3581.65
Actual price / expected price:   43.04%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   385.61
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23187.12
Predicted date for today's price:    27-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -251.43
Daily price rank:    2
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335329351227614++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.14935505125607+%29   

[jl2012]

jl, I see previous bull market support between -0.5 and -0.25, so I assume that is our next resistance.

What is the approximate price around that zone, if possible?

Cheers!

-0.5: e^-0.5 * 3581.65 = 2172
-0.25: e^-0.25 * 3581.65 = 2789

I think this is a reasonable target for the ATH of this cycle

[DoktorKopf]

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.

For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)

Oh how I dreamed of today back then!

[jl2012]

Date:    24-May-2017
BETI:   -0.448
VWAP:    2383.53
x:    2503
a:    0.00334
b:    -0.13940
Rsq:    0.80536
The day's expected price:    3729.25
Actual price / expected price:   63.91%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   401.50
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   24142.65
Predicted date for today's price:    10-Jan-2017
Days ahead:    -133.97
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00334133418444225++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.139397238706605+%29   

[jl2012]

It is now within the historical resistance/support zone between -0.5 and -0.25 (about $2261 - $2900)

[jl2012]

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.

For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)

Oh how I dreamed of today back then!

You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway

[mmortal03]

You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway

Thanks, I've also been wanting to see it. It's not as useful practically speaking, but it's still a good visual. I've got a similar long term chart with exponential trend line in a spreadsheet.

[jl2012]

You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway

Thanks, I've also been wanting to see it. It's not as useful practically speaking, but it's still a good visual. I've got a similar long term chart with exponential trend line in a spreadsheet.

If there is one thing interesting, it is the red line never went down since 2012. That means the expected price has always been going up, despite the long bear market from 2014-2016

[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

Thank you sir for grossly undervalued service of yours! I have been subscribing to your posts for years now. This this is the last proper thread to my knowledge that has not died out. I really valued Stephen Reed`s and rpietila`s threads as well.

I have been dwelling on the idea of using marketcap instead of btc price itself for these models. Therefore the price would be inflation adjusted because the supply of the currency has changed. Or is it already "priced in" by the market i would imagine??

Do you guys (rpietila) have any ideas how to make most out of this bull run in terms of gaining more btc/diversifying portfolio in this bull run aka "how to know if we have hit the top for this runup"? I think rpietila had some insights about having six consecutive weeks green candles and/or 30 percent daily increase? as a indicator. I know this is near impossible to work out but for someone who has 100 % percent of "wealth"  invested in btc it provides numerous possibilities for deleveraging one`s portfolio.

[notme]

Thank you sir for grossly undervalued service of yours! I have been subscribing to your posts for years now. This this is the last proper thread to my knowledge that has not died out. I really valued Stephen Reed`s and rpietila`s threads as well.

I have been dwelling on the idea of using marketcap instead of btc price itself for these models. Therefore the price would be inflation adjusted because the supply of the currency has changed. Or is it already "priced in" by the market i would imagine??

Do you guys (rpietila) have any ideas how to make most out of this bull run in terms of gaining more btc/diversifying portfolio in this bull run aka "how to know if we have hit the top for this runup"? I think rpietila had some insights about having six consecutive weeks green candles and/or 30 percent daily increase? as a indicator. I know this is near impossible to work out but for someone who has 100 % percent of "wealth"  invested in btc it provides numerous possibilities for deleveraging one`s portfolio.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

hi SSS plan sounds reasonable for a person who does not like taking risks which i am not  I guess what I am trying to figure out at what price i want to start raking and what kind of percentage, calculating ones percentage of portfolio makes sense for a person who has outstanding wealth which again i do not  . Thanks for the link, good insights in there.

[jl2012]

Date:    25-May-2017
BETI:   -0.395
VWAP:    2518.72
x:    2504
a:    0.00334
b:    -0.13908
Rsq:    0.80550
The day's expected price:    3739.37
Actual price / expected price:   67.36%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   402.59
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   24208.16
Predicted date for today's price:    26-Jan-2017
Days ahead:    -118.28
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00334095545799238++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.139080606975029+%29   

[DoktorKopf]

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.

For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)

Oh how I dreamed of today back then!

You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway

https://i.imgur.com/pvUyVBz.png

Thanks for putting it together in any case.

I like it as a record of how the line of best fit has changed. As you say, it doesn't change much and it hardly ever points down, and clearly as time passes it will tend to hug the best fit ever more closely - but in retrospect its tangent can be seen as a loose proxy for the market's 'exuberance', irrational or otherwise. Thanks again for your work.

[mmortal03]

I was looking at my own exponential chart and noticed that we aren't relatively that far from the expected price surpassing $4000. If and when the actual Bitcoin price ever gets back above the mean on this chart, well, that'll be a *huge* event.