BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[john803]

Thanks John for taking up the thread.

Thanks, you're welcome.

Date   6/29/18
VWAP   $5,936.40
x   2904
y   8.688857985
a (slope) historical   0.003303248
b (intercept) historical   -0.105292582
Rsq historical   0.860990
BETI historical   -0.797
Expected Price historical   $13,177.14
Actual price / expected price historical   45.05%
Expected Date historical   10/30/17
# of Days ahead historical   -241.39
Daily VWAP Rank historical   245
Next expected price historical   $13,220.74
   
   
-2.25   $1,388.86
-2.00   $1,783.33
-1.75   $2,289.84
-1.50   $2,940.22
-1.25   $3,775.31
-1.14   $4,218.52
-1.00   $4,847.60
-0.75   $6,224.44
-0.50   $7,992.34
-0.25   $10,262.37
0.00   $13,177.14
0.25   $16,919.79
0.50   $21,725.43
0.75   $27,896.01
1.00   $35,819.19
1.25   $45,992.75
1.50   $59,055.86
1.75   $75,829.22
2.00   $97,366.64

[john803]

Date   6/30/18
VWAP   $6,370.48
x   2905
y   8.759429974
a (slope) historical   0.003302728
b (intercept) historical   -0.104787853
Rsq historical   0.861058
BETI historical   -0.729
Expected Price historical   $13,207.43
Actual price / expected price historical   48.23%
Expected Date historical   11/21/17
# of Days ahead historical   -220.76
Daily VWAP Rank historical   233
Next expected price historical   $13,251.13
   
   
-2.25   $1,392.05
-2.00   $1,787.43
-1.75   $2,295.11
-1.50   $2,946.98
-1.25   $3,783.99
-1.14   $4,228.21
-1.00   $4,858.74
-0.75   $6,238.75
-0.50   $8,010.71
-0.25   $10,285.96
0.00   $13,207.43
0.25   $16,958.68
0.50   $21,775.38
0.75   $27,960.14
1.00   $35,901.53
1.25   $46,098.47
1.50   $59,191.61
1.75   $76,003.53
2.00   $97,590.46

[john803]

Date   7/1/18
VWAP   $6,349.23
x   2906
y   8.756088215
a (slope) historical   0.003302203
b (intercept) historical   -0.104279407
Rsq historical   0.861126
BETI historical   -0.735
Expected Price historical   $13,237.69
Actual price / expected price historical   47.96%
Expected Date historical   11/20/17
# of Days ahead historical   -222.50
Daily VWAP Rank historical   234
Next expected price historical   $13,281.47
   
   
-2.25   $1,395.24
-2.00   $1,791.53
-1.75   $2,300.37
-1.50   $2,953.73
-1.25   $3,792.66
-1.14   $4,237.90
-1.00   $4,869.87
-0.75   $6,253.04
-0.50   $8,029.06
-0.25   $10,309.52
0.00   $13,237.69
0.25   $16,997.53
0.50   $21,825.26
0.75   $28,024.19
1.00   $35,983.77
1.25   $46,204.07
1.50   $59,327.20
1.75   $76,177.64
2.00   $97,814.02

[john803]

Date   7/2/18
VWAP   $6,495.22
x   2907
y   8.778821839
a (slope) historical   0.003301694
b (intercept) historical   -0.103785239
Rsq historical   0.861195
BETI historical   -0.714
Expected Price historical   $13,268.38
Actual price / expected price historical   48.95%
Expected Date historical   11/27/17
# of Days ahead historical   -216.35
Daily VWAP Rank historical   228
Next expected price historical   $13,312.26
   
   
-2.25   $1,398.48
-2.00   $1,795.68
-1.75   $2,305.70
-1.50   $2,960.58
-1.25   $3,801.46
-1.14   $4,247.73
-1.00   $4,881.17
-0.75   $6,267.54
-0.50   $8,047.68
-0.25   $10,333.43
0.00   $13,268.38
0.25   $17,036.94
0.50   $21,875.87
0.75   $28,089.17
1.00   $36,067.21
1.25   $46,311.21
1.50   $59,464.77
1.75   $76,354.28
2.00   $98,040.83

[john803]

Date   7/3/18
VWAP   $6,583.66
x   2908
y   8.792346845
a (slope) historical   0.003301193
b (intercept) historical   -0.103298972
Rsq historical   0.861266
BETI historical   -0.703
Expected Price historical   $13,299.35
Actual price / expected price historical   49.50%
Expected Date historical   12/2/17
# of Days ahead historical   -212.99
Daily VWAP Rank historical   224
Next expected price historical   $13,343.33
   
   
-2.25   $1,401.74
-2.00   $1,799.87
-1.75   $2,311.08
-1.50   $2,967.49
-1.25   $3,810.33
-1.14   $4,257.64
-1.00   $4,892.56
-0.75   $6,282.17
-0.50   $8,066.47
-0.25   $10,357.55
0.00   $13,299.35
0.25   $17,076.71
0.50   $21,926.93
0.75   $28,154.73
1.00   $36,151.39
1.25   $46,419.30
1.50   $59,603.57
1.75   $76,532.49
2.00   $98,269.67

[john803]

Date   7/4/18
VWAP   $6,576.17
x   2909
y   8.791207536
a (slope) historical   0.003300690
b (intercept) historical   -0.102810479
Rsq historical   0.861336
BETI historical   -0.707
Expected Price historical   $13,330.33
Actual price / expected price historical   49.33%
Expected Date historical   12/1/17
# of Days ahead historical   -214.07
Daily VWAP Rank historical   225
Next expected price historical   $13,374.40
   
   
-2.25   $1,405.01
-2.00   $1,804.06
-1.75   $2,316.46
-1.50   $2,974.40
-1.25   $3,819.20
-1.14   $4,267.56
-1.00   $4,903.95
-0.75   $6,296.80
-0.50   $8,085.25
-0.25   $10,381.67
0.00   $13,330.33
0.25   $17,116.48
0.50   $21,978.00
0.75   $28,220.31
1.00   $36,235.59
1.25   $46,527.42
1.50   $59,742.39
1.75   $76,710.75
2.00   $98,498.55

[john803]

Date   7/5/18
VWAP   $6,581.19
x   2910
y   8.791971424
a (slope) historical   0.003300186
b (intercept) historical   -0.102321079
Rsq historical   0.861406
BETI historical   -0.708
Expected Price historical   $13,361.35
Actual price / expected price historical   49.26%
Expected Date historical   12/2/17
# of Days ahead historical   -214.58
Daily VWAP Rank historical   225
Next expected price historical   $13,405.51
   
   
-2.25   $1,408.28
-2.00   $1,808.26
-1.75   $2,321.85
-1.50   $2,981.32
-1.25   $3,828.09
-1.14   $4,277.49
-1.00   $4,915.36
-0.75   $6,311.45
-0.50   $8,104.07
-0.25   $10,405.83
0.00   $13,361.35
0.25   $17,156.31
0.50   $22,029.14
0.75   $28,285.97
1.00   $36,319.91
1.25   $46,635.68
1.50   $59,881.40
1.75   $76,889.24
2.00   $98,727.74

[john803]

Date   7/22/18
VWAP   $7,451.05
x   2927
y   8.916110536
a (slope) historical   0.003291732
b (intercept) historical   -0.094083644
Rsq historical   0.862594
BETI historical   -0.624
Expected Price historical   $13,901.02
Actual price / expected price historical   53.60%
Expected Date historical   1/13/18
# of Days ahead historical   -189.45
Daily VWAP Rank historical   187
Next expected price historical   $13,946.85
   
   
-2.25   $1,465.16
-2.00   $1,881.30
-1.75   $2,415.63
-1.50   $3,101.74
-1.25   $3,982.71
-1.14   $4,450.26
-1.00   $5,113.90
-0.75   $6,566.38
-0.50   $8,431.39
-0.25   $10,826.12
0.00   $13,901.02
0.25   $17,849.26
0.50   $22,918.90
0.75   $29,428.45
1.00   $37,786.88
1.25   $48,519.32
1.50   $62,300.04
1.75   $79,994.83
2.00   $102,715.40

[Bolkie]

Best thread on the forum.

Is it possible we get an update? I am curious where BETI -1.0 is right now.

[Iris_Colt]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Date   8/19/18
VWAP   $6416.1759650696549215
x   2955
y   8.7665775751474566
a (slope) historical   +0.0032775783
b (intercept) historical   -0.0798716214
Rsq historical   0.863606006540574
BETI historical   -0.865999803537237 (kek)
Expected Price historical   $15,253.70004769077
Actual price / expected price historical   42.0630794168592%
  
-2.25   $1,607.728156725878
-2.00   $2,064.363816360560
-1.75   $2,650.695609497465
-1.50   $3,403.560534497352
-1.25   $4,370.258233529915
-1.14   $4,829.882304177912
-1.00   $5,611.522649341281
-0.75   $7,205.337708073138
-0.50   $9,251.836752984507
-0.25   $11,879.59354187789
0.00   $15,253.70004769077
0.25   $19,586.13855976596
0.50   $25,149.09972550732
0.75   $32,292.08325436611
1.00   $41,463.85565640268
1.25   $53,240.64453669281
1.50   $68,362.34078595092
1.75   $87,778.98311343000
2.00   $112,710.4453686482
2.25   $144,723.0765795394

[DieJohnny]

Beti updates always feel like an Old Faithful-like metronome, pressure is always building.

Some BETI thoughts:

1. More mature ecosystem means more distribution of risk and less singular shocks like Gox, China bans, hacks, other exchange failures, et cetera. ETF is worst news we have right now and price is holding.
2. With less risk, we have less chance of dropping below BETI -1.0... maybe we are even at bottom already. $2500 Bitcoin seems to me would require a shock to the market that I am not seeing as possible with the vast numbers of exchanges, wallets, ownership pathways and China-like bans out in the open for major markets.
3. Shocks upward seem vastly more likely. There has been almost zero good news since futures were announced. Just moderate news that builds pressure (Venezuela, scaling improvements). So many more opportunities to shock up than down at this point. China ban being absorbed already.
4. Shorting bitcoin has been historically a bell weather short term and we are at an all time high for shorts... trying to cover your bitcoin short has to be the most painful thing these past 12 months. One of these short squeezes is going to launch the next bull run, as I see it.

I still think we are 10-15 years from mainstream use cases for bitcoin outside of speculation as an asset diversification. I firmly believe that 99% of the planet will NEVER own bitcoin themselves nor would they ever want to. However, none of those things have to happen for bitcoin to be worth $100k in two years. Bitcoin will be worth $100k simply because of its model as a store of value. Price stability likely happens sooner than we think, maybe within 4 years with growth driven thereafter only by mainstream use cases that come online. I do not believe we will see 1 million dollar bitcoin before 10 years, maybe 15-20. McAfee will have to eat his dick. most people on this forum will never keep their bitcoin long enough for it to reach a million. Bitcoins will be held 99.99 percent by institutions in 15 years. The public only owns derivatives.

[Iris_Colt]

I do not believe we will see 1 million dollar bitcoin before 10 years, maybe 15-20. McAfee will have to eat his dick.

Bitcoin's current price index ($6702.01) is -57.96% below McAfee's bet's price target.

The price needs to increase to $15943.71 to be on target for $1M/Bitcoin by the three year deadline ending in 857 days, kek.

[Iris_Colt]

Quick update...

Date   8/19/18
VWAP   $6699.18
x   2963
y   8.809740
a (slope) historical   +0.0032730580
b (intercept) historical   -0.0754331731
Rsq historical   0.865930
BETI historical   -0.8128979
Expected Price historical   $15,102.83
Actual price / expected price historical   44.357%
  
-2.00    $2,043.95
-1.50    $3,369.90
-1.00    $5,556.02
-0.50    $9,160.33
-0.25   $11,762.10
+0.00  $15,102.83
+0.25  $19,392.42
+0.50  $24,900.36
+1.00  $41,053.76

Interestingly, Bitstamp's ATH on Sunday, 17 December 2017 12:25:03 ($19666.00) is currently BETI +0.264009.

[mmortal03]

I do not believe we will see 1 million dollar bitcoin before 10 years, maybe 15-20. McAfee will have to eat his dick.

Bitcoin's current price index ($6702.01) is -57.96% below McAfee's bet's price target.

The price needs to increase to $15943.71 to be on target for $1M/Bitcoin by the three year deadline ending in 857 days, kek.

lol, McAfee needs to start reading the BETI thread.

[Mallyx]

I do not believe we will see 1 million dollar bitcoin before 10 years, maybe 15-20. McAfee will have to eat his dick.

Bitcoin's current price index ($6702.01) is -57.96% below McAfee's bet's price target.

The price needs to increase to $15943.71 to be on target for $1M/Bitcoin by the three year deadline ending in 857 days, kek.

lol, McAfee needs to start reading the BETI thread.

Can we add the Dickline to BETI ? 

[birr]

 

Can we add the Dickline to BETI ?  

The dickline itself is mostly a curiosity, but that webpage you linked to has good, simple explanations of bitcoin and how it works.  The webpage has the kinds of explanations that one might actually be able to use in discussions with people who don't appreciate the reality of crypto.  I'm remembering in particular a cafe owner whom I met in Uruguay a few years ago.  He was convinced that bitcoin is a criminal fraud.  You have to use the simplest descriptive language possible with some people.  The dickline webpage has good examples of simple explanations that almost anybody could understand, if their minds are even the littlest bit open.
Having said all that, I don't think the length of John McAfee's dick has very much to do with Bitcoin exponential price analysis.

[Iris_Colt]

Just a quick update...

Date   9/2/18
VWAP   $7244.62
x   2969
y   8.888014
a (slope) historical   +0.0032699269
b (intercept) historical   -0.0723514146
Rsq historical   0.866297
BETI historical   -0.748048
Expected Price historical   $15,306.94
Actual price / expected price historical   47.33%
  
-2.00   $2,071.57
-1.50   $3,415.44
-1.00   $5,631.11
-0.50   $9,284.13
-0.25  $11,921.06
+0.00  $15,306.94
+0.25  $19,654.50
+0.50  $25,236.88
+1.00  $41,608.57

[windjc]

Just a quick update...

Date   9/2/18
VWAP   $7244.62
x   2969
y   8.888014
a (slope) historical   +0.0032699269
b (intercept) historical   -0.0723514146
Rsq historical   0.866297
BETI historical   -0.748048
Expected Price historical   $15,306.94
Actual price / expected price historical   47.33%
  
-2.00   $2,071.57
-1.50   $3,415.44
-1.00   $5,631.11
-0.50   $9,284.13
-0.25  $11,921.06
+0.00  $15,306.94
+0.25  $19,654.50
+0.50  $25,236.88
+1.00  $41,608.57

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.

[Mallyx]

I think it's the more recent we have.

[Iris_Colt]

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.

https://i.imgur.com/Kd5wJPs.png