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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 110253 times)
windjc
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July 28, 2020, 10:46:46 PM
 #901

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

It doesn't mean Internet == Cancer. Only a moron would say that. A network that provides a valuable service to participants for being connected to it is on the same spectrum as a network that provides only minimal positive benefit (or is exploitative) of it's participants (like fiat monetary systems that are enforced coercively) and on net extract value from the majority of participants.

Pyramid schemes, fiat money, bitcoin and all monetary systems are networks with a basis in a temporally-limited, subjective-value, marketable unit.

Actually I can produce all the examples your little heart desires to prove the internet is cancer.  Cancer of the mind.  Those that think they don’t have to have accountability. Yes the comparison is valid

Ohh and it looks like you guys got a sympathy pump to help you pour more of your money into it. What the chart needed to be a certain way.  So the powers that control bitcoin just pump to fit whatever narrative is rolling that week.  Yes it’s heavily manipulated.  

Actually I’m looking at it.  There is some money to be made.  Either it dumps to oblivion or the coiling I’m seeing at the end of the all time chart looks to be set to explode.  It is what it is.  I’ve found that some people in life are just meant to work and some are just meant to exploit others to do their bidding. I’ve been trained on the former rather than the latter.  I wish you all the best of luck and prosperous further.  No matter how this scam turns out I hope you all can make a buck whilst your in it.  I lost my ass and had to pickup the PCs.  Now only to be fucked by COVID 19 and an ignorant populace.  I thought when you started your own business you were the sole reason it can be fucked up. Well nope.  Plenty of external sources via human fuckery to do that for me.   It is what it is.  What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger.  Take care everyone. This should be the last thread I have followed.

73’s
d57heinz
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You've been around since 2014. Which means you could have bought at $155. Did you?

I'm suspecting the answer is still no, since you are for some reason still on this forum and such a negative Nancy.
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JayJuanGee
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July 28, 2020, 11:41:40 PM
 #902

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

It doesn't mean Internet == Cancer. Only a moron would say that. A network that provides a valuable service to participants for being connected to it is on the same spectrum as a network that provides only minimal positive benefit (or is exploitative) of it's participants (like fiat monetary systems that are enforced coercively) and on net extract value from the majority of participants.

Pyramid schemes, fiat money, bitcoin and all monetary systems are networks with a basis in a temporally-limited, subjective-value, marketable unit.

Actually I can produce all the examples your little heart desires to prove the internet is cancer.  Cancer of the mind.  Those that think they don’t have to have accountability. Yes the comparison is valid

Ohh and it looks like you guys got a sympathy pump to help you pour more of your money into it. What the chart needed to be a certain way.  So the powers that control bitcoin just pump to fit whatever narrative is rolling that week.  Yes it’s heavily manipulated.  

Actually I’m looking at it.  There is some money to be made.  Either it dumps to oblivion or the coiling I’m seeing at the end of the all time chart looks to be set to explode.  It is what it is.  I’ve found that some people in life are just meant to work and some are just meant to exploit others to do their bidding. I’ve been trained on the former rather than the latter.  I wish you all the best of luck and prosperous further.  No matter how this scam turns out I hope you all can make a buck whilst your in it.  I lost my ass and had to pickup the PCs.  Now only to be fucked by COVID 19 and an ignorant populace.  I thought when you started your own business you were the sole reason it can be fucked up. Well nope.  Plenty of external sources via human fuckery to do that for me.   It is what it is.  What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger.  Take care everyone. This should be the last thread I have followed.

73’s
d57heinz
Doug

You've been around since 2014. Which means you could have bought at $155. Did you?

I'm suspecting the answer is still no, since you are for some reason still on this forum and such a negative Nancy.

Personally, I do not expect anyone to either be able to time the bottom or to have enough nerve to buy at anything close to an exact bottom.

However, throughout most of 2015, bitcoin's price spent a lot of time between $220 and $280 - probably something close to 10 months, and of course, later in 2015 and even nearly half of 2016, BTC spent a decent amount of time (probably around 6.5 months) between $370 and $440, and finally, a third opportunity to buy BTC was in mid-to-late 2016 BTC, when BTC dropped right before Bitfinex's supposed hack, yet largely spent most of the time between June and October which would be nearly 5 months between $550 to $700 price range.

So, personally, I would have suggested that buying a meaningful amount of BTC within any of those three opportune time-frames (and surely three price range sets) would have been reasonable for anyone, including even employing some kind of DCA strategies that might not break the bank but would have allowed an accumulation of anywhere between 1% and 10% of investable assets for any forum member who had gotten involved in trying to learn about BTC in 2014. 

Sure, may not have "killed it" but even with a $10k investment into bitcoin should have been able to acquire a good 20 BTC or so over those couple of years.. and I remember that some people had goals to achieve 21 BTC in those times, and harder to accomplish such 21BTC these days, and forum members are frequently more than thrilled to have been able to get into double digit BTC wallet accumulation sizes... soon (and maybe there are even many forum members today) forum members will be excited to be in the 1+ bitcoin club.. because it currently can take a decent amount of efforts and focus too achieve a wallet size of 1 BTC plus.

Of course, we have to deal with ESG, KYC & AML, but each of them are attack vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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July 29, 2020, 09:10:00 PM
 #903

.. and I remember that some people had goals to achieve 21 BTC in those times, and harder to accomplish such 21BTC these days, and forum members are frequently more than thrilled to have been able to get into double digit BTC wallet accumulation sizes... soon (and maybe there are even many forum members today) forum members will be excited to be in the 1+ bitcoin club.. because it currently can take a decent amount of efforts and focus too achieve a wallet size of 1 BTC plus.


yeah i remember that....21 btc...

200K + now !!!!

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JayJuanGee
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July 29, 2020, 09:41:09 PM
 #904

.. and I remember that some people had goals to achieve 21 BTC in those times, and harder to accomplish such 21BTC these days, and forum members are frequently more than thrilled to have been able to get into double digit BTC wallet accumulation sizes... soon (and maybe there are even many forum members today) forum members will be excited to be in the 1+ bitcoin club.. because it currently can take a decent amount of efforts and focus too achieve a wallet size of 1 BTC plus.


yeah i remember that....21 btc...

200K + now !!!!

Yep.  Whoaza!!!!

Of course, we have to deal with ESG, KYC & AML, but each of them are attack vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
marcus_of_augustus
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July 30, 2020, 11:29:46 PM
 #905

... growth models of new technologies, networks, pyramid (ponzi) schemes, cancer tumours and pandemic spreads are identical. It's the maths of exponential growth.

No. It's based on logarithmic growth, which is pretty much the opposite of exponential as the rate of growth ("speed") continues to decline.

Logarithmic:



Exponential:



Bitcoin:



End of mathematics class  Smiley

I'm not paying tuition for this one ... in which universe did internet adoption look like a logarithmic curve?? Grin

And you don't mean "opposite" but the mathematical term is the "inverse function" (I mean I don't know exactly what you are trying to say here but exponential function and natural logarithm functions are inverses).

Not sure what log base 2 has to do with anything I was talking about. But carry on ...

hint: bitcoin price should not be taken as a proxy for network growth.

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November 19, 2020, 07:32:56 PM
 #906

any chance of an up-to-date BETI graph?
josegines
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November 20, 2020, 12:11:45 AM
 #907

any chance of an up-to-date BETI graph?

are available on Tradingview
developed by mararn1618

I'm not sure if parameters a and b were the last ones proposed by the author.

BETI
https://www.tradingview.com/script/DWmkcjKC-BTC-BETI-Bitcoin-Exponential-Trend-Index/


APROXIMATION
https://es.tradingview.com/script/fmjHtj4q-BTC-Approximation-BETI-Bitcoin-Exponential-Trend/

QUBIC: a quorum-based computations protocol.- by Come-from-Beyond
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bullioner
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November 20, 2020, 05:31:27 PM
 #908


I'm not sure if parameters a and b were the last ones proposed by the author.


They are determined on-the-fly by a regression fit, no?  Otherwise it's not BETI as defined by this thread.
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November 21, 2020, 08:34:56 PM
 #909


I'm not sure if parameters a and b were the last ones proposed by the author.


They are determined on-the-fly by a regression fit, no?  Otherwise it's not BETI as defined by this thread.

I understand that they can be adjusted, in fact, I have put a couple of pairs of parameters that I tested.

Although the opinion of the creator of this thread should be known.

QUBIC: a quorum-based computations protocol.- by Come-from-Beyond
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bullioner
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November 22, 2020, 07:19:55 AM
 #910

I understand that they can be adjusted, in fact, I have put a couple of pairs of parameters that I tested.

Although the opinion of the creator of this thread should be known.

They're not "adjusted".  They just are what they are, based on the regression fit.
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November 22, 2020, 07:22:38 PM
 #911

Is it a Python script?

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November 22, 2020, 10:15:12 PM
Merited by 600watt (1)
 #912

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329698500847897++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101494714460353+%29

234K and growing fast... I don't think the price will ever cross it again.

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November 23, 2020, 01:25:02 AM
 #913


Quoted for posterity.  Won't it be wonderful to be ridiculed for that one day?
 Grin Grin
Wekkel
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November 23, 2020, 11:13:40 AM
 #914

Bitcoin tends to surprise on the upside  Grin

bitserve
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November 23, 2020, 03:08:04 PM
 #915


Quoted for posterity.  Won't it be wonderful to be ridiculed for that one day?
 Grin Grin

More than wonderful and would totally welcome that ridicule... but at the rate BETI is growing daily I am pretty sure it has already reached escape velocity. Sad

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bullioner
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November 23, 2020, 04:45:06 PM
Merited by bitserve (1)
 #916


Quoted for posterity.  Won't it be wonderful to be ridiculed for that one day?
 Grin Grin

More than wonderful and would totally welcome that ridicule... but at the rate BETI is growing daily I am pretty sure it has already reached escape velocity. Sad

It doesn't work like that.  It would converge on a stagnant price, because it's using a best-fit to a model.

Output of a hacky script to do this today gives this:


a: 0.00270185020127701
b: 0.572820201440624
predicted y: 10.7831121120664
predicted price: 48199


bullioner
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November 23, 2020, 04:52:51 PM
 #917

I make BETI -0.977 as of 2020-11-20, using gox then kraken daily data, with cutoff date of 2013-10-06, and filling in gaps (only a few days in each of gox and kraken) by assuming the price stays the same during the gap.

a: 0.00270185020127701
b: 0.572820201440624
predicted y: 10.7831121120664
predicted price: 48199
ln(todays price): 9.80587472366913
beti: -0.977
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November 23, 2020, 05:05:20 PM
 #918

and entering prices manually for the subsequent 3 days, and running again, gives:

a: 0.00270063443633625
b: 0.574351659178193
predicted y: 10.7881510974019
predicted price: 48443
ln(todays price): 9.81465633882951
beti: -0.973
bitserve
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November 23, 2020, 06:08:33 PM
 #919


Quoted for posterity.  Won't it be wonderful to be ridiculed for that one day?
 Grin Grin

More than wonderful and would totally welcome that ridicule... but at the rate BETI is growing daily I am pretty sure it has already reached escape velocity. Sad

It doesn't work like that.  It would converge on a stagnant price, because it's using a best-fit to a model.

Output of a hacky script to do this today gives this:


a: 0.00270185020127701
b: 0.572820201440624
predicted y: 10.7831121120664
predicted price: 48199




Oh.. ummhh... I reckon I donno what I am talking about... I just used the formula link the OP posted some time ago. I thought that was ok to just run it to update the price.

Thanks for the update! And yeah, if that is the expected price nowadays and it doesn't run away as I thought then it is perfectly possible it will be crossed sometime.

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February 17, 2021, 10:20:35 AM
 #920

the main problem with the BETI as I mentioned earlier in this thread is it needs to account for the dilutional effect of all other crypto's

A rough real BETI would be BETI x BTC market dominance.

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