BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[seleme]

Shit its growing by $3 per day and is $150 ahead of us already?

Not sure whether to be happy or sad about that

At rpietilla's is 150 ahead, at OP's is some 100$ below.

Wolfam link: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.006044++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.82447+%29

Thanks mate, that's what we needed here

[kdrop22]

Thanks guys, great thread and indepth analysis.

[jl2012]

Date: 28-Feb-2014
VWAP: 564.40
x: 1322
a: 0.00605
b: -1.82535
Rsq: 0.87511
The day's expected price: 477.29
Predicted date for today's price: 27-Mar-2014
Days ahead: 27.72
Daily price rank: 98
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 25-Jul-2014

Today's expected price: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00604650351258477++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.82535074209542+%29
   
(See OP for explanation)

[jl2012]

Date: 10-Mar-2014
VWAP: 627.64
x: 1332
a: 0.00605
b: -1.82890
Rsq: 0.87778
The day's expected price: 510.67
Predicted date for today's price: 13-Apr-2014
Days ahead: 34.06
Daily price rank: 91
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 23-Jul-2014

(See OP for explanation)

Expected price of today:

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00605452401275089++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.82890291502084+%29

[jl2012]

y-axis is ln(price)
Blue line is the daily VWAP
Red line is the expected price of the day. For each day, a regression is fitted with all data of and before that day, so it is not a straight line.
Green line is the current regression line

For the first time, the long-term trend is now over 500

[jl2012]

Update:

Date: 16-Mar-2014
VWAP: 633.44
x: 1338
a: 0.00606
b: -1.83066
Rsq: 0.87933
The day's expected price: 531.43
Predicted date for today's price: 13-Apr-2014
Days ahead: 28.98
Daily price rank: 92
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 23-Jul-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00605847623188982++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.83066363041354+%29   

[jl2012]

If we do not go up today, this will be the first day we have a VWAP lower than the trend since the latest bull market

Date: 23-Mar-2014
VWAP: 563.42
x: 1345
a: 0.00606
b: -1.83151
Rsq: 0.88104
The day's expected price: 555.40
Predicted date for today's price: 25-Mar-2014
Days ahead: 2.37
Daily price rank: 118
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 22-Jul-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.0060603705091609++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.83151091268783+%29   

[jl2012]

[jl2012]

Quick update:

The VWAP on 24 Mar 2014 was 570.13, failed to drop below the long term trend at 558.81. The long-trend trend is still growing at about $3.5 per day.

[Erdogan]

This is all fine and dandy, but...

The exponential trend based on number of users, even a super exponential trend (x^4) due to increased usability with more users, is probably sound and it is what I use for my own long time view. But the line is distorted by speculation (which is the same as foresight).

Personally, I believe that the theoretical exponential line is positioned far below the historical trend, maybe at only one dollar per bitcoin as of now. The reason is that the early adopters including myself, are leaning towards saving, and taking advantage of the implementation phase, but the majority, when they come aboard, will think more of the practicalilty of indirect exchange. After all, a lot of people have only about 1K of USD as ready money.

So even if the exponential baseline is sound, we don't really know the future.

[fatjohn]

Could you let us know how deep the lows of the 2011 and april 2013 bubbles were below your two trendlines? Percentage wise? How much below are we today?

[600watt]

thx 4 the nice work !

[jl2012]

Time to update:

Date:    1-Apr-2014
VWAP:    479.96
x:    1354
a:    0.00606
b:    -1.83009
Rsq:    0.88299
The day's expected price:    584.87
Predicted date for today's price:    27-Feb-2014
Days ahead:    -32.64
Daily price rank:    133
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    23-Jul-2014
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00605722960118392++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.83009376643144+%29   

[jl2012]

We are now 32 days behind, or at 0.82x of the trend line

[jl2012]

Could you let us know how deep the lows of the 2011 and april 2013 bubbles were below your two trendlines? Percentage wise? How much below are we today?

In 2011 the low was about 0.1x of the trendline

The 2013 July low was exp(-0.31)=0.73x of the trendline

Now we are at about 0.82x

[oda.krell]

Could you let us know how deep the lows of the 2011 and april 2013 bubbles were below your two trendlines? Percentage wise? How much below are we today?

In 2011 the low was about 0.1x of the trendline

The 2013 July low was exp(-0.31)=0.73x of the trendline

Now we are at about 0.82x

Thanks for the update, jl2012. I've said it before in here (did I? don't remember, actually...) you seem to be the only one who really understands how log linear regression analysis works... every single other poster in this forum I've seen who uploads his variant of a log linear regression chart (including well known Finnish investors clowns) post their pretty picture with a straight line, saying proudly "look, how close price is at all times to that line!", only showing how pathetic their understanding of TA is. The point, as exemplified by your second graph, is that you need to look at the *running* calculation of a regression, based on the data *available at the time*. And then it becomes clear that, at least in 2011, price stayed for a long time deep below the trendline predicted by regression.

Conclusions? Hard to say. If we continue today like we did in 2013, we will go back above the regression trendline soon. If we repeat something similar to 2011, we might stay below for much longer. That's the whole point: regression analysis is great for getting an idea of the likely order of magnitude of price in the future, but it can still be off by a large factor depending on whether we go through a long bull or bear market in the meantime. And, as opposed to the aforementioned Finnish clown, whether that happens (bull or bear market in the meantime) is *not* answered by regression.

/rant

Sorry for that, jl2012. Your work is much appreciated.

[wang_yan]

I think we are 2 months behind now

[windjc]

Could you let us know how deep the lows of the 2011 and april 2013 bubbles were below your two trendlines? Percentage wise? How much below are we today?

In 2011 the low was about 0.1x of the trendline

The 2013 July low was exp(-0.31)=0.73x of the trendline

Now we are at about 0.82x

Thanks for the update, jl2012. I've said it before in here (did I? don't remember, actually...) you seem to be the only one who really understands how log linear regression analysis works... every single other poster in this forum I've seen who uploads his variant of a log linear regression chart (including well known Finnish investors clowns) post their pretty picture with a straight line, saying proudly "look, how close price is at all times to that line!", only showing how pathetic their understanding of TA is. The point, as exemplified by your second graph, is that you need to look at the *running* calculation of a regression, based on the data *available at the time*. And then it becomes clear that, at least in 2011, price stayed for a long time deep below the trendline predicted by regression.

Conclusions? Hard to say. If we continue today like we did in 2013, we will go back above the regression trendline soon. If we repeat something similar to 2011, we might stay below for much longer. That's the whole point: regression analysis is great for getting an idea of the likely order of magnitude of price in the future, but it can still be off by a large factor depending on whether we go through a long bull or bear market in the meantime. And, as opposed to the aforementioned Finnish clown, whether that happens (bull or bear market in the meantime) is *not* answered by regression.

/rant

Sorry for that, jl2012. Your work is much appreciated.

A little harsh, maybe?

To his defense, that Finnish clown does reference %'s below and above the trendline. Although, I agree that his assumptions that we won't stay below it for a long time because - well, just because - are his hopes, not real analysis.

[bclcjunkie]

oda do i sense some jealousy in your tone? you may be good at understanding how log linear regression analysis works but to me that's useless if you got no track record to back it up... (btw jl2012 it's not directed at you i follow your analysis closely...)

actions speak louder than words mate... that "clown" you speak of managed to nail price trends pretty well for the past 3 months, check his last posts and you'll understand what i mean...

Could you let us know how deep the lows of the 2011 and april 2013 bubbles were below your two trendlines? Percentage wise? How much below are we today?

In 2011 the low was about 0.1x of the trendline

The 2013 July low was exp(-0.31)=0.73x of the trendline

Now we are at about 0.82x

Thanks for the update, jl2012. I've said it before in here (did I? don't remember, actually...) you seem to be the only one who really understands how log linear regression analysis works... every single other poster in this forum I've seen who uploads his variant of a log linear regression chart (including well known Finnish investors clowns) post their pretty picture with a straight line, saying proudly "look, how close price is at all times to that line!", only showing how pathetic their understanding of TA is. The point, as exemplified by your second graph, is that you need to look at the *running* calculation of a regression, based on the data *available at the time*. And then it becomes clear that, at least in 2011, price stayed for a long time deep below the trendline predicted by regression.

Conclusions? Hard to say. If we continue today like we did in 2013, we will go back above the regression trendline soon. If we repeat something similar to 2011, we might stay below for much longer. That's the whole point: regression analysis is great for getting an idea of the likely order of magnitude of price in the future, but it can still be off by a large factor depending on whether we go through a long bull or bear market in the meantime. And, as opposed to the aforementioned Finnish clown, whether that happens (bull or bear market in the meantime) is *not* answered by regression.

/rant

Sorry for that, jl2012. Your work is much appreciated.

[oda.krell]

oda do i sense some jealousy in your tone? you may be good at understanding how log linear regression analysis works but to me that's useless if you got no track record to back it up... (btw jl2012 it's not directed at you i follow your analysis closely...)

Please note, the following is the only additional remark I'm going to make in here on the guy (besides bringing him up in my previous post), because it's OT and a disrespect to jl2012 and his great work: If you trust anything that windbag says, you will most likely get burned. His track record is incredibly poor (last year he claimed we'd hit 300k. Last month he predicted we won't go below 500 again. His only correct prediction I can remember: that we will touch 400 again.). As for his character (or that of his forum persona), I don't think I know a single more pompous poster in here than him, but that's ultimately my subjective impression, so you're free to disagree.