raskul
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April 28, 2014, 04:50:34 PM |
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Paying for August delivery in late April is NUTS. The number of variables to consider between then and now makes an informed decision impossible.
then please, take your concerns and leave the thread. your 'gentle' persuasion is appreciated, but I am sure we are all mature enough to make our own minds up. thank you.
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RoadStress
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April 28, 2014, 05:01:00 PM |
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Paying for August delivery in late April is NUTS. The number of variables to consider between then and now makes an informed decision impossible.
Where were you advising people to not buy pre-orders from other companies like BFL, HashFail etc? We had a full 12 months of pre-orders. Suddenly everyone jumps criticizing one more pre-order. I stated in the above replies you are comparing different companies with different background. Feel free to not order, but i got your message. No need to repeat it endlessly.
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solarion
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April 28, 2014, 05:04:08 PM Last edit: April 28, 2014, 05:21:16 PM by solarion |
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Yes actually. I pre-ordered from scamfast myself. Got royally screwed and have been very vocal about it. The time for pre-orders is past. That ship sailed.
People that order from bfl at this point...well there's really not much to say there. I believe therapy can offer real hope for masochists.
@raskul, you've been on ignore for some while. Yer just wasting time replying.
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kendog77
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April 28, 2014, 05:14:56 PM |
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Paying for August delivery in late April is NUTS. The number of variables to consider between then and now makes an informed decision impossible.
Where were you advising people to not buy pre-orders from other companies like BFL, HashFail etc? We had a full 12 months of pre-orders. Suddenly everyone jumps criticizing one more pre-order. I stated in the above replies you are comparing different companies with different background. Feel free to not order, but i got your message. No need to repeat it endlessly. The market has changed substantially between last year and now. Miners are no longer forced to pre-order and take huge risks in order to stay competitive because of companies like Bitmain that offer fairly priced, in stock hardware. Heck, I would have ordered some May SP10 units because they should be delivered within two weeks if the price of BTC didn't tank 15% over the weekend due to FUD coming out of China. Trying to convince people to pre-order and take large risks in order to stay competitive is disingenuous.
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Biffa
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April 28, 2014, 05:41:51 PM |
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Secondly, its 3+ months till August. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I hope it works out for everyone, but I also reckon that you would have to be a bit naive to think that the SP30 will be out there on its own with no competition at the price point or even efficiency level. You think the Chinese are going to stop? You think that Innosilicon, the Avalon people, AM etc are just going to give up? I think theres even a reasonable probablility that KnC will have Neptune out there before then even though some may scoff. I predict the next round of miners coming out of China will be significantly cheaper than the last round. I know that already the 820GH Avalon machine is down to 1900$ delivered, so am expecting the A1 boxes to drop accordingly and for newer 1.2/1.6/2 TH machines to be out sooner rather than later. SP-Tech will have chips in hand early July, i hope that we will get some kind of demo or some performance numbers long before they start shipping units. I don't think SP30 will have no competition, but i do think that the SP30 will be among the first ones (if not the first one) with that efficiency. AM is still struggling with their gen3 chip and it seems to be on pair with SP10 chips, KnC's 20nm chip will be around SP10 efficiency level too so it will take some time to catch up for the rest of the companies. As for China clones and such they may sell 1TH for 500$, but if they suck at power efficiency it's no good. By the time the competition will catch up with SP30 i'm sure that SP-Tech will be one step ahead. All educated guesswork I am sure, and I hope for your group buy's sake that it works out that way, but remember, no-ones predicted efficiency has so far been on the money. SP10 is still only 1W/GH or maybe just under at its rated 1.4TH which is the same as A1 in the shipping Dragonminers from China. Even BITMAIN have shown they can adapt their design to get down to very close to those numbers with the S2. KnC's old tech isn't far off 1W/GH either. Now the SP30 being a die shrink should hopefully pay off, but they are bumping up the output big time which may affect things, who knows, I hope your thoughts and guesses pay off, I'd be hedging and planning for it to be slightly off target just in case.
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solarion
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April 28, 2014, 05:51:22 PM |
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How do you compare to something that's not available for 4 months?
Hashfast sierra looked like a bargain for 50Btc in sept of 2013 for delivery in November of 2013. Didn't turn out so well.
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s1gs3gv
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April 28, 2014, 05:53:57 PM |
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<snip> i do think that the SP30 will be among the first ones (if not the first one) with that efficiency. AM is still struggling with their gen3 chip and it seems to be on pair with SP10 chips, KnC's 20nm chip will be around SP10 efficiency level too so it will take some time to catch up for the rest of the companies. As for China clones and such they may sell 1TH for 500$, but if they suck at power efficiency it's no good. By the time the competition will catch up with SP30 i'm sure that SP-Tech will be one step ahead.
This whole issue of power efficiency is a red herring, it is an end-of-life issue which is significant to profitability only when the cost of operating a piece of equipment approaches the value of the bitcoin it mines. When difficulty is very high and bitcoin is cheap, miners have bigger problems than sucking the last 2 dollars a day profit from a large capital investment. Why don't you publish some numbers that will give your customers a reasonable expectation that they can recover the capital cost of an SP30 before you try selling this equipment on power efficiency ? @raskul: don't bother trooper, you are on ignore till you start behaving L)L
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tzortz
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April 28, 2014, 05:55:51 PM |
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Guys, if you dont want to buy, nobody forces you.
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All is Mine!
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kendog77
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April 28, 2014, 06:02:46 PM |
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<snip> i do think that the SP30 will be among the first ones (if not the first one) with that efficiency. AM is still struggling with their gen3 chip and it seems to be on pair with SP10 chips, KnC's 20nm chip will be around SP10 efficiency level too so it will take some time to catch up for the rest of the companies. As for China clones and such they may sell 1TH for 500$, but if they suck at power efficiency it's no good. By the time the competition will catch up with SP30 i'm sure that SP-Tech will be one step ahead.
This whole issue of power efficiency is a red herring, it is an end-of-life issue which is significant to profitability only when the cost of operating a piece of equipment approaches the value of the bitcoin it mines. When difficulty is very high and bitcoin is cheap, miners have bigger problems than sucking the last 2 dollars a day profit from a large capital investment. Why don't you publish some numbers that will give your customers a reasonable expectation that they can recover the capital cost of an SP30 before you try selling this equipment on power efficiency ? @raskul: don't bother trooper, you are on ignore till you start behaving L)L Agreed, power efficiency is overrated unless there is a dramatic difference. At 12 cents per kilowatt hour, a 1TH miner that uses 1W/GH (1000 Watts) will use $87.60 in electricity per month. A more efficient miner that uses .75W/GH will use $65.70 in electricity per month, so you're looking at savings of $262.80 per year. Given that most miners won't be running after 12 months, marginally more efficient miners (comparing a Dragon to a SP10, for example) should certainly not command a huge price premium. People tend to overpay for power efficiency without taking the time to do the math.
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solarion
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April 28, 2014, 06:12:14 PM |
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Agreed, power efficiency is overrated unless there is a dramatic difference.
At 12 cents per kilowatt hour, a 1TH miner that uses 1W/GH (1000 Watts) will use $87.60 in electricity per month. A more efficient miner that uses .75W/GH will use $65.70 in electricity per month, so you're looking at savings of $262.80 per year. Given that most miners won't be running after 12 months, marginally more efficient miners (comparing a Dragon to a SP10, for example) should certainly not command a huge price premium. People tend to overpay for power efficiency without taking the time to do the math. Bingo. People with astronomical power costs will be forced out of btc mining first anyway. Tiny efficiency differences won't matter on the final tally. <snip>SP10 is $4000 per 1.4Ths or 2857/Ths. Sounds sweet. When is it delivered?
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s1gs3gv
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April 28, 2014, 06:13:50 PM |
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The real beneficiaries of power efficiency are the large datacenters who have to worry about hashpower density in racks with fixed power budgets.
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tzortz
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April 28, 2014, 06:15:15 PM |
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Agreed, power efficiency is overrated unless there is a dramatic difference.
At 12 cents per kilowatt hour, a 1TH miner that uses 1W/GH (1000 Watts) will use $87.60 in electricity per month. A more efficient miner that uses .75W/GH will use $65.70 in electricity per month, so you're looking at savings of $262.80 per year. Given that most miners won't be running after 12 months, marginally more efficient miners (comparing a Dragon to a SP10, for example) should certainly not command a huge price premium. People tend to overpay for power efficiency without taking the time to do the math. Bingo. People with astronomical power costs will be forced out of btc mining first anyway. Tiny efficiency differences won't matter on the final tally. <snip>SP10 is $4000 per 1.4Ths or 2857/Ths. Sounds sweet. When is it delivered? 2 weeks from now. Relax.
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All is Mine!
1H7LUdfx9AFTMSXPsCBror3RDk57zgnc2R
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solarion
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April 28, 2014, 06:21:53 PM |
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Agreed, power efficiency is overrated unless there is a dramatic difference.
At 12 cents per kilowatt hour, a 1TH miner that uses 1W/GH (1000 Watts) will use $87.60 in electricity per month. A more efficient miner that uses .75W/GH will use $65.70 in electricity per month, so you're looking at savings of $262.80 per year. Given that most miners won't be running after 12 months, marginally more efficient miners (comparing a Dragon to a SP10, for example) should certainly not command a huge price premium. People tend to overpay for power efficiency without taking the time to do the math. Bingo. People with astronomical power costs will be forced out of btc mining first anyway. Tiny efficiency differences won't matter on the final tally. <snip>SP10 is $4000 per 1.4Ths or 2857/Ths. Sounds sweet. When is it delivered? 2 weeks from now. Relax. Relaxed thanks. Think I'll take bitmain for 1310/Th shipped within 48hrs. Though if spondoolies could guarantee shipping within 48hrs I'd consider them even at a higher price.
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RoadStress
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April 28, 2014, 06:44:54 PM |
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@kendog77 let's talk in September. You tell me your hashrate and power consumption and i will tell you my hashrate and my power consumption. Secondly, its 3+ months till August. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I hope it works out for everyone, but I also reckon that you would have to be a bit naive to think that the SP30 will be out there on its own with no competition at the price point or even efficiency level. You think the Chinese are going to stop? You think that Innosilicon, the Avalon people, AM etc are just going to give up? I think theres even a reasonable probablility that KnC will have Neptune out there before then even though some may scoff. I predict the next round of miners coming out of China will be significantly cheaper than the last round. I know that already the 820GH Avalon machine is down to 1900$ delivered, so am expecting the A1 boxes to drop accordingly and for newer 1.2/1.6/2 TH machines to be out sooner rather than later. SP-Tech will have chips in hand early July, i hope that we will get some kind of demo or some performance numbers long before they start shipping units. I don't think SP30 will have no competition, but i do think that the SP30 will be among the first ones (if not the first one) with that efficiency. AM is still struggling with their gen3 chip and it seems to be on pair with SP10 chips, KnC's 20nm chip will be around SP10 efficiency level too so it will take some time to catch up for the rest of the companies. As for China clones and such they may sell 1TH for 500$, but if they suck at power efficiency it's no good. By the time the competition will catch up with SP30 i'm sure that SP-Tech will be one step ahead. All educated guesswork I am sure, and I hope for your group buy's sake that it works out that way, but remember, no-ones predicted efficiency has so far been on the money. SP10 is still only 1W/GH or maybe just under at its rated 1.4TH which is the same as A1 in the shipping Dragonminers from China. Even BITMAIN have shown they can adapt their design to get down to very close to those numbers with the S2. KnC's old tech isn't far off 1W/GH either. Now the SP30 being a die shrink should hopefully pay off, but they are bumping up the output big time which may affect things, who knows, I hope your thoughts and guesses pay off, I'd be hedging and planning for it to be slightly off target just in case. SP10 is 0.82W/GH if you measure it by 1400GH (1150W for this speed) Why do you say it's 1W/GH? What is the power draw for Dragonminers? S2 does 1W/GH and comes in pieces. KnC Jupiters are 1.1-1.2W/GH. Only Bitfury can achieve 0.8 or maybe 0.7W/GH. As said before I invite you and everyone to just buy one single unit so that they can compare themselves the quality of the products. Can't afford or don't want to buy a pre-order unit? Just buy one SP10 and you will see the difference. How do you compare to something that's not available for 4 months?
Hashfast sierra looked like a bargain for 50Btc in sept of 2013 for delivery in November of 2013. Didn't turn out so well.
HashFail is run by Eduardo who is reminding me of Josh Zerlan. Check Eduardo's background and you will see and understand why they failed so much. SP-Tech have 2 VCs companies that overlook every move they make. It's not the same thing. Stop comparing apples with oranges! This whole issue of power efficiency is a red herring, it is an end-of-life issue which is significant to profitability only when the cost of operating a piece of equipment approaches the value of the bitcoin it mines.
When difficulty is very high and bitcoin is cheap, miners have bigger problems than sucking the last 2 dollars a day profit from a large capital investment. Why don't you publish some numbers that will give your customers a reasonable expectation that they can recover the capital cost of an SP30 before you try selling this equipment on power efficiency ?
@raskul: don't bother trooper, you are on ignore till you start behaving L)L
If you think power consumption matters as much as 2 dollars per day then what can i say to you? Imagine having 2 farms both hashing at 5TH. One farm needs 5kW and one farm needs 2.5kW. Which one do you think it will last longer? Also take into consideration that besides small miners there are some big miners too. Big miners will need to pay an extra ~30% more on their power bill for keeping their units cool enough. Paying 30% more out of 5kW is something and paying 30% more out of 2.5kW is another thing. If your power bill is 10k$ you need to pay additional 3k$. That matters! My estimates of getting a fiat ROI on the SP30 units is around 2-3 months. Of course it's very exchange rate dependent (meaning that if btc goes to 100$ then you won't get a fiat roi in 3 months) and also difficulty dependent, but that comes into second place since i don't think it will rise with 20% all the time like everyone is thinking. (last diff adjust was only 14% and the next one seems to be around 15%). Relaxed thanks. Think I'll take bitmain for 1310/Th shipped within 48hrs. Though if spondoolies could guarantee shipping within 48hrs I'd consider them even at a higher price.
Then why not buy a lot of them right now? It seems that you are only wishing for hashing machines, but you don't seem to either have the money or the guts to really act like you say. Post pics when you get them before you start assembling them.
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Biffa
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April 28, 2014, 07:00:54 PM |
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SP10 is 0.82W/GH if you measure it by 1400GH (1150W for this speed) Why do you say it's 1W/GH? What is the power draw for Dragonminers? S2 does 1W/GH and comes in pieces. KnC Jupiters are 1.1-1.2W/GH. Only Bitfury can achieve 0.8 or maybe 0.7W/GH. As said before I invite you and everyone to just buy one single unit so that they can compare themselves the quality of the products. Can't afford or don't want to buy a pre-order unit? Just buy one SP10 and you will see the difference.
Forgive me if I'm barking up the wrong tree ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) In dogies review there were lots of mentions of 1250W for 1.3GH and a chart for power draw at the wall ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FVgqipWP.png&t=665&c=66VcEvGo7CQTeA) All I meant is that its not like we are saying that SPT is half the power consumption currently compared to the competition, they are good, but everyone is snapping at each others heels. I hope its alot better for SP30 but expect it to be somewhere inbetween in the end.
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s1gs3gv
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April 28, 2014, 07:06:42 PM |
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If you think power consumption matters as much as 2 dollars per day then what can i say to you? Imagine having 2 farms both hashing at 5TH. One farm needs 5kW and one farm needs 2.5kW. Which one do you think it will last longer? Also take into consideration that besides small miners there are some big miners too. Big miners will need to pay an extra ~30% more on their power bill for keeping their units cool enough. Paying 30% more out of 5kW is something and paying 30% more out of 2.5kW is another thing. If your power bill is 10k$ you need to pay additional 3k$. That matters!
My estimates of getting a fiat ROI on the SP30 units is around 2-3 months. Of course it's very exchange rate dependent (meaning that if btc goes to 100$ then you won't get a fiat roi in 3 months) and also difficulty dependent, but that comes into second place since i don't think it will rise with 20% all the time like everyone is thinking. (last diff adjust was only 14% and the next one seems to be around 15%).
RoadStress, I appreciate you trying to address these concerns intelligently. With respect to the power efficiency issue, of course a 5TH farm which requires 5kWh will use twice as much electricity as a 5TH farm which uses 2.5kWh. When both farms get to the point on the difficulty/btc price curve where the 5kWh farm can't cover its operating costs by mining bitcoin, the 2.5kWh farm will be making so little money that it won't matter. At the end of the life of both of these farms, profitability will be negligible. The important question to ask is whether either of these farms has recovered their capital expenses and has made a profit commensurate with the risk they took. So, would you mind publishing some common-sense numbers we can all plug into the bitcoinwisdom mining profitability calculator that show a reasonable return on your SP30 group buy ?
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RoadStress
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April 28, 2014, 07:07:46 PM |
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I have...
i'm sorry but; why is this relevant to Spondoolies-Tech, announcement thread? I think you have found the wrong forum. I asked him ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Bingo. People with astronomical power costs will be forced out of btc mining first anyway. Tiny efficiency differences won't matter on the final tally.
You have astronomical power costs imo. 30 S1 need how much power? 12kW? 10kW? And you get how much hashrate? 5400GH/s? A single SP30 will do more than your setup with only 2700W required. Not to mention all the PSUs, cables and stuff and more parts that could break than in the SP30. You made your choice. Good luck with that, but let other people make their own choice.
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jimmothy
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April 28, 2014, 07:12:54 PM |
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So, would you mind publishing some common-sense numbers we can all plug into the bitcoinwisdom mining profitability calculator that show a reasonable return on your SP30 group buy ? Has a profitability calculator ever been right? I think the most important thing is to have the cheapest $/gh and most efficient miner w/gh and you should profit. But nobody knows how the sp30 will actually perform and what it will be up against when it finally ships.
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solarion
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April 28, 2014, 07:14:41 PM |
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You have astronomical power costs imo. 30 S1 need how much power? 12kW? 10kW? And you get how much hashrate? 5400GH/s? A single SP30 will do more than your setup with only 2700W required. Not to mention all the PSUs, cables and stuff and more parts that could break than in the SP30. You made your choice. Good luck with that, but let other people make their own choice. I do hope you're kidding, you seem like an intelligent poster. Power consumption is largely irrelevant at this point, unless your power rates are enormous, in which case you'll be pushed out of btc mining anyway. By the time power consumption is relevant the difference between 1.7j/gh and 1.2j/gh won't mean much. Gold rated psus or server psus can be had dirt cheap and cables are made for fractions of a penny/yard. I fail to see how conversing limits anyone's choice.
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ElGabo
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April 28, 2014, 07:16:38 PM |
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I have...
i'm sorry but; why is this relevant to Spondoolies-Tech, announcement thread? I think you have found the wrong forum. I asked him ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Bingo. People with astronomical power costs will be forced out of btc mining first anyway. Tiny efficiency differences won't matter on the final tally.
You have astronomical power costs imo. 30 S1 need how much power? 12kW? 10kW? And you get how much hashrate? 5400GH/s? A single SP30 will do more than your setup with only 2700W required. Not to mention all the PSUs, cables and stuff and more parts that could break than in the SP30. You made your choice. Good luck with that, but let other people make their own choice. Sp30 looks a fine machine. That is sure. But where is the crystal ball to see the future? If they will sell of the shelf and I can see max 80 days roi then SOME profit with cheap electricity i would buy a lot. But the case is not that....
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" I'm waiting for my punishment, I know it's on my way So cut, cut, cut me up and fuck, fuck, fuck me up"
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