[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dEBRUYNE]

zcash alpha has been launched

https://github.com/Electric-Coin-Company/zcash

http://www.wired.com/2016/01/zcash-an-untraceable-bitcoin-alternative-launches-in-alpha/

I'll just copy my reddit comment here:

I've made this list earlier:

List of possible pitfalls wrt ZeroCash/ZeroCoin:

[1] If ZeroCash/ZeroCoin is launched on behalf of a company, which seems the case here, the company can be given a gag order (e.g. to add a line of malicious code).

[2] If I recall correctly, the creator of the genesis block holds some kind of masterkey. As a result, you have to trust this person. Even if this key was held by a group, you still have to trust that particular group. In addition, you have to trust the program they run to create the Genesis block (the masterkey could be in there).

[3] It's too opaque in my opinion. If a bug existed that would create additional coins, there is no way you would see it.

[4] The math and cryptography backing it isn't peer reviewed yet and in an infancy stage.

[1] seems to be confirmed. They will be launching as a for profit company, see:

For its first four years online, a portion of every mined Zcash coin will go directly to Wilcox’s Zcash company

This could also invoke some legal issues, since they are basically not a decentralid currency and bear in mind they are **US** based (http://www.bizapedia.com/de/THE-ZEROCOIN-ELECTRIC-COIN-COMPANY-LLC.html). Just remember what happened with Ripple.

Basically, with Ring Confidential Transactions included in Monero it's basically pepsi vs coke (thanks to u/smooth_xmr for this analogy), where both have their advantages and disadvantages.

P.S. They are currently only on testnet, the "real-version" is at least 6 months away.

P.P.S. It seems like they transactions are also quit inefficient compared to Monero's. See this description on how to get from the basecoins (the transparent ones) to the zerocoins (anonymous ones):

This operation (called a pour) might take a minute or two depending on your hardware. It is producing a zero-knowledge proof. (This operation's performance will be improved in the coming months.)

Shen Noether (aka NobleSir), who is obviously more knowledgeable about this subject than me, also made a comparison on reddit:

I've done a little bit of comparison in the Ring CT paper / you can also look here for some facts on zcash- there are a few I've seen so far

[1] Setup: Monero (Trustless) vs Zerocash (Must Trust zcash company)

[2] Proof Generation: Monero (100's second ) vs Zcash (1/minute)

[3] Algorithm auditability: Monero (a decent number of people seem to understand ring signatures and confidential transactions) vs Zerocash (I'm not sure how many people actually understand the proofs besides the small group of authors) - although this point is certainly subjective.

[4] Poison-pill attack vulnerability: Monero (attacker would need 51%) vs Zerocash Vulnerable, (see zerocash extended paper section 6.4

[5] Anonymity set: Monero (although the zcash proponents note that a ring signature is a "smaller" anonymity set, they usually don't mention that the stealth address factor actually means that each transaction is masked, whereas the ring signatures provide additional plausible liability, furthermore, since keys appear in different ring signatures in different blocks in time, the anonymity set for when a given key is spent grows infinitely, and could eventually grow larger than the zcash anonymity set at any fixed instant in time) vs Zcash (anonymity set is the entire blockchain )

[6]Anonymous Multisig: Monero (yes! see "written up" link on ring ct sticky, this could make things like lightning potentially possible ) vs Zerocash (?)

[7] Mining: Monero (has it's own strongly decentralized mining process) vs Zerocash protocol from the paper lacks it's own mining (it's essentially just a distributed anonymous database), so there must be another coin which is mined to convert to zerocash tokens

--note that point 4. is an actual potential compromise of anonymity, which contradicts some of the statements the zerocash team has made.
.
Other Differences are slight: Slight differences in transaction size - however Monero transactions should end up being a bit larger when transmitted, but cost less in terms of storage (their eventual block-chain cost will be approximately 32 bytes* (n+1) where n is mixin + epsilon, where epsilon is the current tx size - ring signatures (Note in the recent Ring CT drafts, there is pruning mentioned for the range proofs, see the "written up" link)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/41vg68/monero_vs_zcash_eli5_fundamental_differences/cz63pqw

[1715692575]

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[dEBRUYNE]

Some TA from Klee:

Thanks Wexlike, good think with PnF is that if you know which charts to watch the signals are pretty straightforward.
My short term charts gave a very strong bearish signal reverse and the daily was a double top breakout, so this was a good signal to take. If the short term charts where only a double top break too, I would be more conservative to go long.

As we all know, S/Rs are objective too, though keep in mind that some are meant to be broken (like the 420 resistance in the daily, but we still have resistance there in the 2h).

Bitfinex 2h HL 1%x3



Ethereum almost triple topped -
POLONIEX 1D ETHBTC HL 2%x3:


0.00405957 is probably a buy though someone may wait for 0.00414076 to be 100% certain!


Monero ready for a bullish catapult?
POLONIEX 1D XMRBTC HL 3%x3.png:

[dEBRUYNE]

TPTB_need_war has repeatedly been stating that Zerocash does not need IP obfuscation and therefore is not subject to I2P/TOR, which are, in his opinion, flawed.

However, it seems like Zerocash actually needs IP obfuscation as well and they seem to go with TOR, see -> https://twitter.com/ioerror/status/689958030859960321

I took out this excerpt from the discussion in this thread -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1139756.msg13623846#msg13623846 (starting point).

Look way back in 2014 when you launched Monero, I told you smooth and fluffypony that IP address correlation was the weakness. Fluffypony proceed to try to integrate I2P. I warned you all many times that was not an adequate direction. But you wouldn't listen.

I2P, and even somewhat Tor, is perceived as adequate by 99% of the market. The remaining 1% may be smarter but isn't obviously much of a market at all. Very niche-y.

By the speculators because they are clueless.

But the corporations do not use darknets. They want privacy on the block chain, like we have disk encryption. Mention dark nets, illegal drug trade, etc, and they won't touch it with a 100 foot pole.

I would guess that many corporations do use Tor now for certain things. I2P will be integrated and invisible. No one will know or care how it works, except that the obvious network level vulnerabilities having to do with broadcasting transactions will be removed, and it will pass routine (though not intelligence agency level) technical muster for being private sufficient to satisfy most of the market. That's my opinion, and you are welcome to disagree.

Zerocash still needs IP obfuscation for a lot of private usages in practice too. They acknowledge it in the paper.

Zerocash does not need IP obfuscation when all the transactions are in the private zerocoins. Cite the section of the paper. I think you must be misunderstanding something. You are probably conflating the use of the regular non-anonymous coins mentioned in the paper.

Here you are making excuses again. Corporations are not going to trust unprovable shit. And moreover, mixnets are always vulnerable to flood attacks. They are very, very unreliable. Not only do I disagree, but I also think you are ignoring basic fundamental realities about the technologies.

Edit: arguing for Tor/I2P is akin to arguing for Dash's off chain mixing. Now look in the mirror and remember your arguments for End-to-End Principled ring sigs (versus off chain mixing) and realize the same logic applies to why Zerocash is superior to using off chain mixnets. Hypocrite.

Edit#2: okay I see the section you are referring to:

6.4 Additional anonymity considerations
Zerocash only anonymizes the transaction ledger. Network trac used to announce transactions,
retrieve blocks, and contact merchants still leaks identifying information (e.g., IP addresses). Thus
users need some anonymity network to safely use Zerocash. The most obvious way to do this is
via Tor [DMS04]. Given that Zerocash transactions are not low latency themselves, Mixnets (e.g.,
Mixminion [DDM03]) are also a viable way to add anonymity (and one that, unlike Tor, is not as
vulnerable to trac analysis). Using mixnets that provide email-like functionality has the added
benet of providing an out-of-band notication mechanism that can replace
Receive
.
Additionally, although in theory all users have a single view of the block chain, a powerful
attacker could potentially fabricate an additional block
solely
for a targeted user. Spending any
coins with respect to the updated Merkle tree in this \poison-pill" block will uniquely identify the
targeted user. To mitigate such attacks, users should check with trusted peers their view of the
block chain and, for sensitive transactions, only spend coins relative to blocks further back in the
ledger (since creating the illusion for multiple blocks is far harder).

I will need to understand this attack better. Seems to me they are saying that you need to spend from a block where your pour transaction was the only transaction in the block. But the user would I think know this and thus not spend the coin any more. Thus I believe the anonymity remains provable without the use of any mixnet. I will need to understand this more deeply to be sure.

Bear in mind that I2P will be integrated in Monero, but you can always choose to run Monero over TOR if you want.

[luigi1111]

A for-profit coin company, i dont care what they make, iwill never trust them. moreover RingCT will move Monero closer to Zcash

Shut up & take my ZookoCoins!   

Shut up & take my VaporizedCoins. Totally untraceable and non-existent.

I giggled.

[koryu]

Some TA from Klee:

Monero ready for a bullish catapult?
POLONIEX 1D XMRBTC HL 3%x3.png:

yes looks like we have a higher low on 12h here or at 0.00117, but therea re already over 100btc worth bids to 0.00117 and selling pressure is weak

[TPTB_need_war]

Smooth is demanding that I post my marketing thoughts in a separate thread from my technical thoughts, breaking the conversation continuity up across multi-threads. It was not my desire to post again in this Monero Speculation thread, but it is only official Monero thread I am aware where I can post marketing thoughts that impact speculation decisions on Monero. Where on BCT is the official Monero thread for having open discussions?

"build it and they will come after 5 years" is a nice pitch to speculators, but in my line of work I had to produce a marketed product to earn an income. You worked in (programming for) finance (something you acknowledged recently in public post) thus  I assume you never had to do this. So I understand that in for-profit software the mantra is "ship it, sell it", otherwise projects go on and on and on and are never finished.

Again consistent with take a break and come back when the technology is ready for a "build it, ship it, sell it" approach.

Also this is entirely irrelevant to Monero since Monero is an open source project not a product. So off topic for the thread. Please respect the thread starter, the forum, and the community and try to stay on topic.

Open source that goes on and on and doesn't full a market thus dies. Right now you are fighting to keep the speculators fooled as that is the only market.

Why the desire to censor? Hiding something? It is not off topic. Technological and marketing analysis go hand-in-hand.

There was nothing on-topic ("Improvement Technical Discussion") in your last post, thus no need for any further response. Please stay on topic.

[smooth]

Smooth is demanding that I post my marketing thoughts in a separate thread from my technical thoughts, breaking the conversation continuity up across multi-threads. It was not my desire to post again in this Monero Speculation thread, but it is only official Monero thread I am aware where I can post marketing thoughts that impact speculation decisions on Monero. Where on BCT is the official Monero thread for having open discussions?

You can create your own thread(s) with whatever topic(s) you want.

When a thread starter creates a thread with a specific topic, off topic posts are not allowed, and on a self-moderated thread the thread starter can set any rules for participation (I guess as long as the rules don't conflict with forum rules). That is a forum rule, not my rule.

Posts about marketing that directly relate to speculation (are causing price to drop/increase, will cause price to drop/increase, etc.) are on-topic here, as long as it isn't repetitive. Repeating points already discussed recently is not allowed.

[TPTB_need_war]

May I please ask where is the official Monero thread on BCT where I can post my marketing thoughts freely and be on topic?

Is there no official thread for Monero for discussing marketing 

[Hueristic]

,,, Where on BCT is the official Monero thread for having open discussions?...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0

[TPTB_need_war]

,,, Where on BCT is the official Monero thread for having open discussions?...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0

That is Announcement thread which is bumped like crazy with noise.

Is there no serious discussion thread for open Monero discussion especially pertaining to marketing?

[smooth]

May I please ask where is the official Monero thread on BCT where I can post my marketing thoughts freely and be on topic?

Is there no official thread for Monero for discussing marketing  

Probably not. It is an open source project, not a product.

If you want to market a product, you should probably team up with people who are offering Monero-based products such as MyMonero, CryptoKingdom, etc. (or create your own such product and market it, of course).

There was a Monero Economy Workgroup (run by Risto) which was to promote and coordinate such product activities but it seems there was little sustained interest from him or others and it is being disbanded.

[smooth]

Deleted as suggested

Most of your off topic posts are noise, that thread is used for general discussion. Why do you care about marketing anyway, you say this coin is a failure. If you want to respond to this do it in the announce thread.

Feel free to delete this smooth. {Wink}  <<<--- look no RED!

[wpalczynski]

,,, Where on BCT is the official Monero thread for having open discussions?...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0

That is Announcement thread which is bumped like crazy with noise.

Is there no serious discussion thread for open Monero discussion especially pertaining to marketing?

If you want to talk about better ways to market Monero I will gladly create a thread for you and Im sure others will participate however your intention seems to be to market yourself and your ideas as opposed to Monero.  Can you see how that might aggravate people? 

[TPTB_need_war]

May I please ask where is the official Monero thread on BCT where I can post my marketing thoughts freely and be on topic?

Is there no official thread for Monero for discussing marketing  

Probably not. It is an open source project, not a product.

If you want to market a product, you should probably team up with people who are offering Monero-based products such as MyMonero, CryptoKingdom, etc. (or create your own such product and market it, of course).

There was a Monero Economy Workgroup (run by Risto) which was to promote and coordinate such product activities but it seems there was little sustained interest from him or others and it is being disbanded.

As you probably know, I think that is an entirely clueless response, but the explanation for the dissonance between us is at the following linked post:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1219023.msg13636077#msg13636077

Marketing always applies, even applied to Linux. If you don't comprehend your business model, then you are going to remain adrift at sea. I hope you seriously think about the fact that you really want to copy Linus and thus you better start focusing on how businesses are going to take interest and fund your open source. I am telling you that sincerely, in spite of any very minor damage any of my posts might do to speculator interest in Monero. Please try to take it constructively.

But you do what ever you want of course.

I will inhibit myself from posting in this thread again (ditto other official Monero threads), if you will kindly not delete this post. No worries it will soon get buried any way in this 622 page thread.

[smooth]

If you don't comprehend your business model

In order for there to be a business model, there has to be a business. Monero is not a business. There is no business model, so nothing to comprehend.

You may believe that not being a business means that the token value will decline. Indeed I guess that is implied by your market position since as far as I know, you don't own any. Others obviously disagree. That's what makes markets.

the fact that you really want to copy Linus

There is no such fact in evidence. Linux is one thing, Monero is another. They have certain attributes in common, others not. Each is a unique construct.

(I'm not deleting because speculating on the success or failure of Monero can benefit from understanding what it is.)

[smooth]

Low quality topics and posts are not allowed

Correct. Please keep replies of high quality. The low quality and off-topic post to which you replied was deleted, as was yours that quoted it. The topic of this thread, of course, is of exceedingly high quality so that part does not apply

TPTB_need_war has already admitted in another thread that he is experiencing some kind of serious illness. go easy on him.

[digicoin]

XMR has gained 30%+ in a month. How high can it go? At the same time, DASH has gained 120 - 130%. Not a good news to me because I hold no DASH lol

[rangedriver]

XMR has gained 30%+ in a month. How high can it go? At the same time, DASH has gained 120 - 130%. Not a good news to me because I hold no DASH lol

Still...at least you have your self-respect.

Expect Monero to reach 0.005 sometime before April. Where it goes from there is dependent on development variables.

[adhitthana]

If you don't comprehend your business model

In order for there to be a business model, there has to be a business. Monero is not a business.

Bravo!  It's easy to miss the enormous fact that crypto currencies are community based decentalised technologies, and aren't corporate entities. The potential here is big and hard to predict

[MikroTik]

XMR has gained 30%+ in a month. How high can it go? At the same time, DASH has gained 120 - 130%. Not a good news to me because I hold no DASH lol

Still...at least you have your self-respect.

Expect Monero to reach 0.005 sometime before April. Where it goes from there is dependent on development variables.

If monero reach 0.005 i would be the happiest guy here