[XMR] Monero Speculation

[owm123]

Hi there,

Is Monero ready to be used commercially? and by ready I don't mean technically possible to use it, but if people who hold Monero would use them to buy services or products.

...

Would anyone care? If not, why not and when could this change? Does it depend?

For mass market use - no. Too small. For small things - yes. I'm already paying for my vpn with monero directly.

The primary aim of monero is privacy and anonymity. Thus, services that provide anonymity and privacy for its users would be first to accept monero, e.g., vpn companies, or private email companies, etc.

[novag]

The smooth increase in prices gives a greater probability of entry of the investor.

[ArticMine]

...


Bitcoin has a potential 3000-50,000x increase at 1MB, because the market values demonstrated stability, immutability, scalability, and antifragility above all else.

I'd like to be wrong here but it seems AM is casually/causally linking tx/sec with blocksize, which constitutes a fundamental type error.

Given the fairly orthogonal relationship between Layer 1 and Layer 2 tps (courtesy of Lightning-type payment channels) that purported linkage may prove to be invalid, and a worse-than-useless metric of utility/utilization.

EG, a mere 3x or 5x Layer 1 blocksize increase would move us approximately 0% of the way forward to 10k/sec Visa-scale goal.

One of the most common misconceptions is that Lighting Network type payment channels are orthogonal to the blocksize issue. They are not. This by the way is made clear in the Lighting Network paper itself. https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf. The following quote from section 12 page 55 of the above paper illustrates this.

If all transactions using Bitcoin were on the blockchain, to enable 7 billion people to make two transactions per day, it would require 24GB blocks every ten minutes at best (presuming 250 bytes per transaction and 144 blocks per day). Conducting all  global payment transactions on the blockchain today implies miners will need to do an incredible amount of computation, severely  limiting bitcoin scalability and full nodes to a few centralized processors.

If all transactions using Bitcoin were conducted inside a network of micropayment  channels, to enable 7 billion people to make two channels per year with unlimited transactions inside the channel, it would require 133 MB blocks (presuming 500 bytes per transaction and 52560 blocks per year). Current generation desktop computers will be able to run a full node with old blocks pruned out on 2TB of storage.

The Lighting Network paper authors propose a 180x gain in efficiency over the same transactions on the actual blockchain. My take is that this is very optimistic, since it presumes that individuals would only open one payment channel per year, and these channels are open with a limited number of centralized providers. Yes even with these highly optimistic assumptions we are still looking at 133 MB blocks. Technologies such as the Lighting Network have their place and could very well prove very useful for certain applications, but they are not a substitute to
addressing blocksize scaling on the main chain in a manner that does not presume beforehand a particular fixed cost over time in real terms of computing power, digital storage and bandwidth.  

Assuming a particular fixed cost over time for computing power, digital storage and bandwidth, and then designing a business model based on these assumptions is the fundamental error that companies such a Diner's Club and even American Express made in the 1950s. It is also the reason they are not the leaders in the  payment card industry today. Another way to look at this issue is to consider how one would accommodate VISA's peak transaction rate of 47000 Transactions per second, using the technology of 1949 namely tabulating machines and punched cards. 1949 is after all when the Diner's Club was conceived as a payment method.

Edit: Monero's adaptive blocksize limit and tail emission are a hidden gem in Monero that is very much under appreciated. This creates a market based solution to the blocksize issue that is not dependent upon any future assumptions of the cost in real terms of computing power, digital storage and bandwidth.

[Raja_MBZ]

I remember Monero went back to less than a dollar in the last few months for a few days... I wonder if that chance of purchasing it would come once again? Pretty nice graph Monero got by the way.

[iCEBREAKER]

One of the most common misconceptions is that Lighting Network type payment channels are orthogonal to the blocksize issue. They are not. This by the way is made clear in the Lighting Network paper itself. https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf.

The Lighting Network paper authors propose a 180x gain in efficiency over the same transactions on the actual blockchain.

Edit: Monero's adaptive blocksize limit and tail emission are a hidden gem in Monero that is very much under appreciated. This creates a market based solution to the blocksize issue that is not dependent upon any future assumptions of the cost in real terms of computing power, digital storage and bandwidth.

Of course LN isn't 100% orthogonal to blocksize (TANSTAAFL).  The point is payment channels decouple tx from Layer One's linear scaling.

180x is a good start; we may discover more optimizations as the tech develops.

Sidechains (and payment channels on sidechains) also provide additional tps capacity without proportionate blockchain bloating.

Agree with your Edit.  Actual Widespread Adoption could force this obscure issue into the limelight (currently occupied by "immutability").

[TrueCryptonaire]

Many have now margin long positions? At least bitcoin loans are taken within a heartbeat (is the demand originated from Monero or some other coin?)

[smoothie]

I remember Monero went back to less than a dollar in the last few months for a few days... I wonder if that chance of purchasing it would come once again? Pretty nice graph Monero got by the way.

I tend to think it wont happen for any prolonged period ever. If it happens it would be a flash crash.

[cryptodromeda]

It's almost time...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUwszL6J81I

http://itsalmo.st/#time_6zjbz

.... slow golf clap.  I am at a loss for words, brave anon.  Godspeed and thank you for gracing us with your wizardly warning.

A little lesson, several years since the emergence.

Monero soldiering graphically onwards.

I see what you did there. Cute.

[cryptodromeda]

It's almost time...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUwszL6J81I

http://itsalmo.st/#time_6zjbz

.... slow golf clap.  I am at a loss for words, brave anon.  Godspeed and thank you for gracing us with your wizardly warning.

A little lesson, several years since the emergence.

Monero soldiering graphically onwards.

Benevolently under your miraculous omen, new enterprises rightfully open.

[aminorex]

Uh-oh.  Running out of XMR again. 

[rangedriver]

Meanwhile in the Garden of Monero, large well-maintained hedges are a perfect choice for overall peace of mind, as well as providing privacy and security from snooping neighbours.

When the world burns around you, don't settle for anything less.

[aminorex]

My ladder is kicking in now on BTC.  If we can get to the 500s, I may even sell some metal so i can margin a bit against a USD capital position: Monkey says down on the daily, but strongly up on the weekly.

[TrueCryptonaire]

We will see if head and shoulders are forming now. Looks very bad now. 

[birr]

I presume you mean bad for btc, not xmr.
On a more cheerful note, does someone here trade xmr against usd tethers on polo?
I've decided to reduce my exposure to btc a little, so I sold some on finex and sent the tethers to polo.

[Febo]

We will see if head and shoulders are forming now. Looks very bad now.  

I dont understand what should be bad. To me all looks the same. Last 3 weeks price of Monero is between 0.0027 and 0.003 with only one day where all alts on Poloniex was sold to fast earn something on ETC. Volume was $3 millions in last 3 weeks. What would be a lot if it would happen a year ago. Now is not that much, but still is some. What is strange is that there is  about 100 BTC wall at about 0.00277 that looks like is always there.

It seems there is no one, even the miners, that are desperate to dump their XMR. It seems everyone can wait this few months for a GUI. Only day trading bots are trading. And few try to accumulate as cheap as they can.

[nioc]

Benevolently under your miraculous omen, new enterprises rightfully open.

Victoriously entertaining. Really, your great opinion offers delights!

Intellect - the highest intelligence nosily knowing whatever enlightenment submits, has always lent luxurious souvenirs. Every experience adds new elevation when heeded. It'll go higher.

wtf are you guys talking about lol

They must have taken the same drugs.

Maybe they have some insight as to when the Godot-UI will be ready.

End of the month is a bad time for btc to go down.

[cryptodromeda]

wtf are you guys talking about lol

Victoriously
entertaining.
Really,
your

great
opinion
offers
delights!

Intellect -

the
highest
intelligence
nosily
knowing

whatever
enlightenment

submits,
has
always
lent
luxurious

souvenirs.
Every
experience

adds

new
elevation
when

heeded.
It'll
go
higher.

Just a bit of cryptographic fun.

[DaveyJones]

End of the month is a bad time for btc to go down.

What do you mean by that?

I think he means it is bad for the people that pay their bills in BTC

[birr]

End of the month is a bad time for btc to go down.

What do you mean by that?

What smells like fish and tastes like chicken?

[MrGood]

What smells like fish and tastes like chicken?