[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

[aminorex]

As I see it, in 5 days, the bfx btc balances become eligible for transfer, at which time I expect some to flow into XMR.  It seemed like about 5% of DAO panic funds ended up in XMR.  Maybe 100kBTC flees bfx on Sunday, and about 0.5% (SWAG) of that flows into XMR, moving market cap by about 12%.

Totally wild guesses on those numbers, though.

[smoothie]

Until this pattern of higher highs and higher lows is decisively broken, I can no longer justify my cheap/dear brackets. Nothing is too dear if the price is up every single week, week in and week out.  You can't make a market if you can never buy cheaper than you sell.

Frankly, I have run out of xmr I am willing to sell before GUI/RingCT/mulitsig levels are discovered.  Hopefully other players will provide liquidity at these levels. Sadly I let my book get too imbalanced, so I am out of business for now.  Cold wallets are sacrosanct.

I am leaving bids scattered in hope that someone decides to buy a boat, but my hopes for a fill are slim.

Market making with a crypto currency like Monero can be very trough. As you correctly point out the market is going to have to find the appropriate levels after the GUI, and also after RingCT/multisig.

Edit: There is also the question of 0.0042-0.0043 XBT levels form a technical perspective. Monero has been in a trading range from 0.0009-0.0043 XBT since August 2014. A breakout from this trading range could be very sharp. 

Most of the users that post in this thread probably would agree (they can chime in, perhaps I am wrong in my assumption) that "finding" the price is implicit that the price could fall as well, which it could.

I suspect good news such as more usability with a GUI and better privacy features with RingCT will net a higher found price than as of late.

Just my two cents.

[smoothie]

As I see it, in 5 days, the bfx btc balances become eligible for transfer, at which time I expect some to flow into XMR.  It seemed like about 5% of DAO panic funds ended up in XMR.  Maybe 100kBTC flees bfx on Sunday, and about 0.5% (SWAG) of that flows into XMR, moving market cap by about 12%.

Totally wild guesses on those numbers, though.

Or maybe people will get their BFX balances and transfer it out and have an epiphany to also draw their funds out of XMR too and go back to fiat funny munny.

 

[birr]

As I see it, in 5 days, the bfx btc balances become eligible for transfer, at which time I expect some to flow into XMR.  It seemed like about 5% of DAO panic funds ended up in XMR.  Maybe 100kBTC flees bfx on Sunday, and about 0.5% (SWAG) of that flows into XMR, moving market cap by about 12%.

Totally wild guesses on those numbers, though.

Or maybe people will get their BFX balances and transfer it out and have an epiphany to also draw their funds out of XMR too and go back to fiat funny munny.

 

It's gunna be a funny munny epifunny

[aminorex]

How could it get better than this?  A neat little pullback!   So happy that my game is back on, if only in a small way - BTC alone is dead money these days.

[bitebits]

How could it get better than this?  A neat little pullback!   So happy that my game is back on, if only in a small way - BTC alone is dead money these days.

Thanks for posting in this sub, enjoy reading your posts. I wonder, since I am not in the trading game. You (day) trade but mention you have cold storage as well which is sacrosanct (that feeling I maybe irrationally, do know). Is this common for anything you trade, or is it because of the extreme potential upside of cryptocurrency in particular?

Secondly I wonder what the balance between cold storage and trading money could or should be. Based on your remark about the pullback, I would assume the cold storage part is percentage wise rather small? Or do you really separate the two in your mind, and are basically fine any direction the price goes?

[nanobrain]

Most of the users that post in this thread probably would agree (they can chime in, perhaps I am wrong in my assumption) that "finding" the price is implicit that the price could fall as well, which it could.

I suspect good news such as more usability with a GUI and better privacy features with RingCT will net a higher found price than as of late.

Just my two cents.

There are always three possibilities  (up/down/straight on) in any trading scenario imho.  But unless something wild happens (and lets face it in crypto, something wild is never far away) XMR does seem to be incredibly under-valued at present esp compared to say ETH which is x7 price.

We just seem to need a catalyst now: some good news either technical or in terms of market adoption for the price to find a new, higher, trading range.

Personally I'm watching hawkishly to ensure I don't get caught out by some giant green candle.

[bitebits]

Most of the users that post in this thread probably would agree (they can chime in, perhaps I am wrong in my assumption) that "finding" the price is implicit that the price could fall as well, which it could.

I suspect good news such as more usability with a GUI and better privacy features with RingCT will net a higher found price than as of late.

Just my two cents.

There are always three possibilities  (up/down/straight on) in any trading scenario imho.  But unless something wild happens (and lets face it in crypto, something wild is never far away) XMR does seem to be incredibly under-valued at present esp compared to say ETH which is x7 price.

We just seem to need a catalyst now: some good news either technical or in terms of market adoption for the price to find a new, higher, trading range.

Personally I'm watching hawkishly to ensure I don't get caught out by some giant green candle.

It is actually x40, not even considering ETH Classic.

[kurious]

Most of the users that post in this thread probably would agree (they can chime in, perhaps I am wrong in my assumption) that "finding" the price is implicit that the price could fall as well, which it could.

I suspect good news such as more usability with a GUI and better privacy features with RingCT will net a higher found price than as of late.

Just my two cents.

There are always three possibilities  (up/down/straight on) in any trading scenario imho.  But unless something wild happens (and lets face it in crypto, something wild is never far away) XMR does seem to be incredibly under-valued at present esp compared to say ETH which is x7 price.

We just seem to need a catalyst now: some good news either technical or in terms of market adoption for the price to find a new, higher, trading range.

Personally I'm watching hawkishly to ensure I don't get caught out by some giant green candle.

It is actually x40, not even considering ETH Classic.

Maybe you are thinking market cap?  Price is not x40

[novag]

Coin market still wavering and resolute, waiting for positive news, however big or small coin holders are mostly playing a long game that is only for the benefit of the coin and it just pushes the price higher and higher and will push to at least 0.01

[ArticMine]

...

Maybe you are thinking market cap?  Price is not x40

When comparing different coins the relevant parameter is market cap, not price. The combined market cap of both Ethers is over 46x that of Monero.

[luigi1111]

...

Maybe you are thinking market cap?  Price is not x40

When comparing different coins the relevant parameter is market cap, not price. The combined market cap of both Ethers is over 46x that of Monero.

Yes, comparing price without accounting for supply is totally irrelevant and completely useless.

Comparing market caps is somewhat more useful, with a large dose of caveats.

[aminorex]

You (day) trade but mention you have cold storage as well which is sacrosanct (that feeling I maybe irrationally, do know). Is this common for anything you trade, or is it because of the extreme potential upside of cryptocurrency in particular?

Extreme upside.

Secondly I wonder what the balance between cold storage and trading money could or should be. Based on your remark about the pullback, I would assume the cold storage part is percentage wise rather small? Or do you really separate the two in your mind, and are basically fine any direction the price goes?

I am 90% cold storage.  That is the measure of extremity on the upside.  For the day trading, I just need volatility, but if it runs away from me, like yesterday, I end up all btc, or all xmr, which means an end to any possibility of gains.

.00336 yesterday was nice, but .00325 today was brilliant for me. I now have enough xmr to keep a reasonably balanced book, again.  Lower still would be nice, as I still have more BTC than I want, but that seems unlikely, as the dip to 325k filled the intraday gap up from 9 August.  One a gap gets filled, it tends to mean support.  I will be more cautious about selling now, as I can't guarantee such cooperative markets in future.!

In other instruments I take a more agnostic view.  I usually only trade very liquid things, SPUs, treasuries, oil, gold, FX, and there my edge comes from swing timing and risk control.  It's a completely different game.  I adore XMR and consider market making to be a positive contribution.  I want any gains I make to be part of a win-win scenario, for XMR.  Heck if I was making too much gain, I would dial it down, just to avoid creating losers in the XMR markets.

In contrast, I want to rape central banks.  I am too small to do that effectively, but I do manage to eke out a bit of pillage in the macro world from time to time.  

Speaking of which, the macro instrument markets today look like a false move, technically.  I can see maybe 3 more days of upside in oil, but I am very skeptical of gold, treasury strength, and of DXY weakness, and think these will trend oppositely real soon.  I look for an oil bottom around November.  I still think gold should correct into the 1200s before resuming the major uptrend.

Edit: Nevermind about oil upside.  That died before I even wrote the text above.

[dEBRUYNE]

Weekly BBA $XMR Price Report

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4x2t5a/weekly_bba_xmr_price_report/

[ArticMine]

...

Yes, comparing price without accounting for supply is totally irrelevant and completely useless.

Comparing market caps is somewhat more useful, with a large dose of caveats.

Yes, there are important caveats with market capitalization; however when it comes crypto currency it can be a critical component and in many cases is superior to price. The key caveat with market capitalization in my mind the ratio of 24 hr trading volume to market capitalization. By 24 hr trading volume I mean bona fide trades between sellers and buyers that are at arms length. Furthermore it should not be possible to manipulate market capitalization by issuing additional coins which for what ever reason cannot be brought to the market or are held by "insiders" who choose to not bring them to market.

A healthy ratio for (24 hr trading volume) / (market capitalization) is over 1% when the average of this ratio is taken over time. Monero and both the Ethers meet this requirement but for example Bytecoin dramatically does not.

Another area where market capitalization is very critical is when performing long term technical analysis on price. Technical analysis was developed for trading stocks where market capitalization is actually equivalent to price. It can and does work well for crypto currencies for a time frame where one can reasonably approximate market capitalization with price. BBA for example provides technical analysis for XMR, DASH, ETC and ETH. Approximating market capitalization with price works well for ETH or ETC since their inception because the bulk of the coins were premined, may work reasonably well Dash from its inception because of the instamine; however in the case of Monero any technical analysis based solely on price that goes back to the launch of Monero in 2014 should be taken with a serious grain of salt. I am in particular referring to the treating the 0.01111 XBT ATH in May 2014 as a serious resistance level. This chart provides a simple pictorial reason as to why. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/monero/#charts

[nanobrain]

</sigh>

How to build a movement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ

or "let me list your technical inaccuracies". 

[GingerAle]

http://news.softpedia.com/news/linux-trojan-mines-for-cryptocurrency-using-misconfigured-redis-database-servers-507115.shtml

Linux.Lady mines for the Monero digital currency
Once the C&C server is informed of the creation of a new bot, it sends over a configuration file, which Linux.Lady uses to start a cryptocurrency mining program that generates digital currency for the crook's account.

The trojan mines for a cryptocurrency named Monero, the same one used by the author of the PhotoMiner worm that self-propagated through vulnerable FTP servers.



Read more: http://news.softpedia.com/news/linux-trojan-mines-for-cryptocurrency-using-misconfigured-redis-database-servers-507115.shtml#ixzz4H26UWPI1

The question is, whens the dump?

edited to add: oh, there's only 1000 xmr earned so far.

And why the address is blurred out is beyond me. Maybe that wasn't by the AV company but from someone else.

[thelibertycap]

http://news.softpedia.com/news/linux-trojan-mines-for-cryptocurrency-using-misconfigured-redis-database-servers-507115.shtml

Linux.Lady mines for the Monero digital currency
Once the C&C server is informed of the creation of a new bot, it sends over a configuration file, which Linux.Lady uses to start a cryptocurrency mining program that generates digital currency for the crook's account.

The trojan mines for a cryptocurrency named Monero, the same one used by the author of the PhotoMiner worm that self-propagated through vulnerable FTP servers.



Read more: http://news.softpedia.com/news/linux-trojan-mines-for-cryptocurrency-using-misconfigured-redis-database-servers-507115.shtml#ixzz4H26UWPI1

The question is, whens the dump?

edited to add: oh, there's only 1000 xmr earned so far.

And why the address is blurred out is beyond me. Maybe that wasn't by the AV company but from someone else.

Pretty nice to see tech savvy folk finally noticing Monero and actually starting to use it.
It even made headlines on Slashdot which is an old-school mainstream web site for geeks.
https://linux.slashdot.org/story/16/08/10/237230/linux-trojan-mines-for-cryptocurrency-using-misconfigured-redis-servers
However in the discussion below the article nobody discusses Monero or anonymity.
I think people are still confused and think crypto is anonymous by default (even tech savvy, i was quite surprised recently - and there is the other group that are smarter but think bitcoin mixers are a workable solution).
Slashdot people are ignorant and don't understand bitcoin and they were bashing 'BitCoin' as scam for a long time

[americanpegasus]

The question is, whens the dump?

edited to add: oh, there's only 1000 xmr earned so far.

And why the address is blurred out is beyond me. Maybe that wasn't by the AV company but from someone else.

You assume this particular black hat is smart enough to design a Linux malware (impressive AF already) and have it mine Monero of all things vs more profitable coins (means he/she/ze knows exactly what makes Monero superior) and yet has no faith in Monero as a long term store of value. 
 
I find that unlikely.