[XMR] Monero Speculation

[N-rG]

@N-rG

No one takes serious your screenshots.  Once you make fake ones you lose  trust.

Just put in Google to list you top and most respected dark markets and you will see which are.  But as I stated many times it is of no importance. Yes it is important that AB is strong and respective but sooner or latter most other markets will follow.  XMR is there to grab for  them.


In generally there is way to much bla bla about dark markets here anyway. And mainly because of you. Yes, is was sort of a recent news. But this is something minor in Monero. It definitely dont deserve 2/3 of speculation thread.

https://news.bitcoin.com/firms-will-monitor-blockchains/

The analysis revealed roughly 11,000 different URLs tethered to DNMs, with 22,000 public key sightings. Out of that data, Skry said it managed to identify 798 unique Bitcoin public keys. According to the report, the biggest DNM’s are Dream and AlphaBay, followed by a psychedelic forum called The Majestic Garden.

Yes yes...everything what is not in the fanboys trash talk favour is fake or fud or both 

AB so unimportant? Well you'll cry so much if AB will do their exit scam because this will cause that the price will fall back to 0.003x

Moreover your and much other posts here are nothing related to a speculation Thread. When I read here racist commentaries (not by you) against people who speak german or some other retard talk I understand why these type of people fail in trading.

90% of the people here claim since 0.02x XMR will rise. Since that the price dropped more than a half. And it will drop even more. The most funny thing is that people here celebrate a slowdowntrend. It is still a downtrend and they still lost more than 50% of their capital.  There is nothing to celebrate. And when some people here say either the price will drop they get ignored or insulted.

For me that doesn't matter. It just motivates me to deliver more fundementals I receive enough PM's every day by people who just don't want to argue with crazy people who claim XMR at 10.000$ in more than 20 years 

[TheKoziTwo]

90% of the people here claim since 0.02x XMR will rise.

Including you

I dont want to be a shorter right now hehe
I guess it will break 021 today++

[smoothie]

90% of the people here claim since 0.02x XMR will rise.

Including you

I dont want to be a shorter right now hehe
I guess it will break 021 today++

lol oh how the hypocritical mind forgets.

N-rG thank you for the continued entertainment. I look forward to more entertainment and dancing from you.  

[cryptimus prime]

Haha stop harrasing N-rG, he sits day and night in front of his PC, writing bad XMR fairy tales and drawing funny fake photoshop pictures and prays in hope it will influence the price.
Show some respect. 

[mfqrs3]

I find all this Germany FUD group very pathetic and sad...

[N-rG]

And price still falling...

Next stop 0.007x?

Or even 0.006x?

[N-rG]

What do you guys think  

high probabilty to go below 100 soon. It was already strong in trend to. Latest news only delayed the trend. Could either go up this weekend because of late starters who get the news late and think it's smart to get in fast cause they are emotional and don't figure out the facts before buy. Or it will drop already this weekend, than it will do so fast.
A lot of people bought now at "high" prices (114+)...when sey see that XMR will continue to fall, they will get rid of their coins as fast as they can to minimize loss (what i can totally understand 115-125 down to 80-90 are at least 22% total loss)....

if it will drop below 0.0095 i could even imagine that people who went in really high try to get rid of their coins. At some point everyone accepts the reality. I feel really sorry for everyone who bought above 180 and keeps a really expensive bag now

the downtrend was interrupted by the app news. Small hype, now price is falling again. The buy walls are fake as always. I wouldn't trust them. Imagine price goes down to lets say for example 60. Its a loss of nearly 50%

This time it's not going for a short dump below 100 (my speculation)...i think it will drop something between 85 and 60. Followed by some buy activities than down again and finally silence until an important news appeared.

Who knows if not even zcash will make the race about Ransomware for next next weeks. Until moneros's RingCT is not implemented zCash is with zksnark's far more anonymous. And still a missing an official non java GUI. Moreover I see some money flowing from monero to zcash (Hype) at release.

[CTTE]

I find all this Germany FUD group very pathetic and sad...

True, but most if not all of it, is one guy! And he's really busy in the Polo troll box... No concept of the big picture or the long game!

TC brought up a $10k price concept and 10-20 years to make it happen which sets our troll(s) off and running. What they can't understand is that we can't look at the software, hardware or networking issues we have today and not figure in the exponential growth aspects of technology into what the software will look like in 5, 10 or 20 years. And sure $10,000 looks like a ludicrous price but if we have any significant inflation over that period, it could be the equivalent of 30-50% of that amount in real dollars. That's just off the top of my head, I haven't done the calculations so please don't hold me to that number but it's the concept of inflation in the fiat currencies that I'm suggesting.

The bottom line is I'd like to see a lot more discussion about the future growth and economic possibilities rather than just combatting this FUD Fest!

Edit: Also, we all are struggling to see what things will look like in 12-18 months and so it's almost impossible to see what 5yrs out looks like let alone 20!

[KeyJockey]

More realistic view of achieving 10 000 usd/xmr is 10-20 years. It took 10-20 years for internet to break through so please give Monero also some years.

20 years is really a long time in terms of software engineering, so I would not expect that Monero still exists in 20 years in its current manner. I think good software will succeed in the end, so I'm holding my Moneros as long as necessary (long term investment 2-5 years).

In software engineering it's generally true that nothing's really ever any good until after about version 3.0 or so.

You have to completely throw out a lot of what's done at first in 1.0 and 2.0 before you can really get it right by 3.0 I think.  It's difficult and not *always* precisely true, but "true enough" in general that I think it may apply here.

Bitcoin is crypto-currency 1.0 -- Satoshi is a genius and got a lot of it VERY VERY RIGHT.  But not everything.  Especially fungibility is seriously flawed.

Monero is crypto-currency 2.0 -- IMHO the anonymous CryptoNote creator/author "Nicolas van Saberhagen" may very well himself BE Satoshi (S.N. / N.S.) as Satoshi "disappeared" to go and "work on other things" just around the time CryptoNote appeared on the scene, I believe.

Because of the possibility of "Speculative Attack" ( http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/ ) it seems likely that ONE crypto-currency will start to take over the world, once some level of critical mass market cap is reached.  We're still very far away from that point however... probably it's somewhere around bitcoin being worth $10,000 each at a minimum.

Whatever may end up being the final-form "version 3.0" crypto-currency may not have even appeared on the scene yet.

But we early-adopters here, all of us, are well-positioned to be able to take advantage of whatever's coming... 

SO, EVERYONE: keep THIS long-view kind of stuff in mind and go ahead and quibble over the day to day movements of price, and if you get your jollies by trying to time the market and pick up pennies in front of the steamroller here?  Go ahead, have fun, knock yourself out.

But IMHO *THIS* point of view is the antidote to all the bullshit FUD nonsense and distraction that's cluttering up this-here Speculation Thread lately.

You're welcome

[N-rG]

i cannot understand that we fall below 100 but I think

That's a general problem here.

[cryptodromeda]

IMHO the anonymous CryptoNote creator/author "Nicolas van Saberhagen" may very well himself BE Satoshi (S.N. / N.S.) as Satoshi "disappeared" to go and "work on other things" just around the time CryptoNote appeared on the scene, I believe.

Yeah I have always subscribed to this theory. I guess we will never know for sure.

[adolf512]

dam i missed the shorting opportunity at 0.0115, that sucks but i will wait for a peak to short(it will only be > -300 XMR). Not sure if the price will go up or down now, we could see another hype/pump followed by 0.007 (was hoping for 0.007 earlier with my last xmr short).

[jehst]

But we early-adopters here, all of us, are well-positioned to be able to take advantage of whatever's coming...  

this is an underrated point. i've heard people say something like: "even if we think cryptocurrency has a future, we don't know if bitcoin will be the ultimate winner. it could be some other cryptocurrency. therefore, the risk of bitcoin as an investment is very high. it can fail even if cryptocurrency succeeds." but this argument fails to note that if you are involved in cryptocurrency, then you are in a very good position to adapt to the changing landscape whether bitcoin retains its marketshare or not.

for example, if you own 1 bitcoin, and you see that monero fixes a very serious bitcoin flaw, then how much does it cost to hedge against the possibility that bitcoin loses to monero?

the answer is <$6.50

all you have to do is buy an equivalent stake in monero. which is currently less than 1 XMR.

if you watch the top 10 list of cryptocurrencies carefully and spend time learning about each new entry, then you will never be taken by surprise. you will know which ones are a real threat to bitcoin, and which ones are pump and dumps that can be ignored. because the list of coins that are an actual threat to bitcoin is so short, the cost of hedging is not too expensive.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Polo had a bug... I just tried to set bids for NRG (he likes to get my money and buy something nice to him) but it ended up market buying despite I set the price below the spot...  

[TrueCryptonaire]

I find all this Germany FUD group very pathetic and sad...

True, but most if not all of it, is one guy! And he's really busy in the Polo troll box... No concept of the big picture or the long game!

TC brought up a $10k price concept and 10-20 years to make it happen which sets our troll(s) off and running. What they can't understand is that we can't look at the software, hardware or networking issues we have today and not figure in the exponential growth aspects of technology into what the software will look like in 5, 10 or 20 years. And sure $10,000 looks like a ludicrous price but if we have any significant inflation over that period, it could be the equivalent of 30-50% of that amount in real dollars. That's just off the top of my head, I haven't done the calculations so please don't hold me to that number but it's the concept of inflation in the fiat currencies that I'm suggesting.

The bottom line is I'd like to see a lot more discussion about the future growth and economic possibilities rather than just combatting this FUD Fest!

Edit: Also, we all are struggling to see what things will look like in 12-18 months and so it's almost impossible to see what 5yrs out looks like let alone 20!

We might be actually higher than 10 000 usd in 20 years from now. Exponential growth tends to be the biggest towards the end of the curve. Therefore it is prudent to buy all the time (even small amounts - let the small mean 10000, 100, 1, 0.1 or even 0.001 XMR - any amount is out of the pockets of the trolls).
Consistency is something that is needed + patience. And whenever NRG trolls it is time to increase the amounts you buy.

It would be cool if some entity with enough capital would buy every Monero under 1000 usd. That would make NRG to be quiet as he can sell his coins to the entity and buy nice jetski to his troll cave next to a pond somewhere in Germany.

[TrueCryptonaire]

dam i missed the shorting opportunity at 0.0115, that sucks but i will wait for a peak to short(it will only be > -300 XMR). Not sure if the price will go up or down now, we could see another hype/pump followed by 0.007 (was hoping for 0.007 earlier with my last xmr short).

Yes NRG, it is because of your adhd.

[Stringer Bell]

I've been monitoring 10 different searches on AB since the launch 7/10 have seen an increase. 4/10 categories have roughly doubled the offerings since launch.

I was thinking the same.. Not sure how much it's increased, but it is sticking around - and very slowly, people are picking it up. The prospect of being in on the ground floor for many of the participants of the DNM's is really nice too. Heaps of people on the markets were around since the early SR days and are well aware of the 'opportunity of a lifetime' that buying a nice chunk of BTC in the $1-20 park would have done for you. Pretty much everyone missed that. One guy even tried to hire me to research XMR and school him on it. I gave him my opinion and let him know I wasn't qualified at all, and he could master it himself quite easily - with a bit of research, I gave him all those good links (he accepts it on quite a few listings now).

Vendors especially, they are very busy and have a lot of risk on their plate each day - but when they get around to researching XMR, if they are satisfied it's truly bringing something new (that BTC can't do) to the table - and that if enough buyers and sellers decide to shift even a portion of their trade into XMR - it would benefit them all very much.  

Not just the inevitable price rise, but having another class of asset to spread the risk. Insurance against unforeseen catastrophic BTC disaster. Splitting the risk/value storage among 2 awesome but unique systems is a good thing. It does not hurt in any way to have an additional working, very private (and this will need to be proven over time, that it does hold up as well as it looks to), currency & store of value, which just so happens to be perfect for this sort of trade.

I am going to do a very simple search and see what numbers I get, I will pick a single item (say, only weed) and post below the results.

I wanted to include the whole world, but there are too many items listed. So I will measure only sellers in "Australia", a country in which DNM use is quite high per capita. I suspect this is because, in comparison to the rest of the world - the price and quality of common street drugs was. It does seem to be coming more in-line with international norms over the past couple years - I doubt DNM's account for enough trade to impact country-wide stats. It's a small group but it is growing, as long as all these (mostly far less harmful than booze) compounds are made illegal, enterprises like these will flourish. Whichever currencies are choice for the trade will earn a constant boost. Here, the best type of money really does win - there's nothing stopping people from using the best currency avaliable. And in this case, until prohibition ends anyway, there's going to be constant demand for these types of currencies.

All vendors, but only 1 category "Cannabis & Hashish" in Australia ONLY:

Individual listings (items) accepting Monero:
31
Individual listings (items) accepting BTC:
316

(9.81 % Accepting Monero - on 21st Oct, in-case I check in say 1 months time)

Some vendors offer Monero for some products and not others, hence the choice to go by individuals item rather than the vendor status (accepting or not), I think this might give a clearer picture.

If anybody is interested, I can check some other categories in this exact way ^

Then, in a month, I could do the same - it would act as a very small indicator of how XMR use is working out.

Like it or not, I do believe XMR will have to be "accepted" by DNM's, just like BTC was, if it's actually going to become anything more than a medium sized project. The DNM's seem to test a currency, they make the decision on if it is suitable - or in this case, if it is advantageous in any way, to BTC, the only real alternative today. It's what's needed to ready it for the world I'd say.

So far, there have been a number of other coins accepted on markets for varying amounts of time. LTC,dash(was it?) and others I don't remember, they all faded away because they were never used. I think it would be useful to check in every month and take some measurements, perhaps the method can be improved a bit, but accurate data on how DNM adoption is going would be a huge clue as to how future adoption will go IMO.

[GingerAle]

Due to the massive hype around zcash I originally thought we would see a bloodbath in monero, but that was before the futures marked priced it as high as 0.2 BTC. Now I'm not so sure. If this price ends up being the starting price when zcash is added to exchanges it will seem very overpriced, with little upside. Everyone and their grandma wants in on this thing, but at these outrageous prices I wouldn't be surprised if they start buying other anonymous coins like zcoin, monero etc... Similar to the altcoin frenzy we had during the massive bitcoin bubble of 2013. People thinking it's expensive buy the undervalued coins in the same industry.

Not seeing it frankly, and as soon as the first person actually use and comment about Zcash the hype will fade off, why? Several minutes and GBs of RAM to make a single transaction and its not a question of lack of database like early Monero. Zcash is not even worthy of being a hedge for Monero, none of the forks that came out so far are clean without premine/ico pretty much like DASH. This means the technology is crap and not worth anything but a quick cash-grab that lives off the hype of fools like ethereum, but unlike the smart-contracts sales-pitches the private-transactions market already has Monero that is private by default unlike Zcash. Are these people really that smart, making it on top of a transparent Bitcoin core when Cryptonote has been out for 2 years? This makes me question many things.

"blah blah blah Monero-fanboy" - no, I actually was a BTC/LTC guy since 2012 until Monero, contrary to many sad trolls in this thread I'm not in crypto to rip-off the less savvy trader or get rich quick, I saw it as a hedge against an increasing unstable mainstream financial world, safe from the reach of any government, that dream is half-dead with Bitcoin and its Chinese dominance now, I focus on Monero.

not to mention they're launching without an official dev-team developed GUI as far as I can tell. I mean, what will the people do?

[CTTE]

IMHO the anonymous CryptoNote creator/author "Nicolas van Saberhagen" may very well himself BE Satoshi (S.N. / N.S.) as Satoshi "disappeared" to go and "work on other things" just around the time CryptoNote appeared on the scene, I believe.

Yeah I have always subscribed to this theory. I guess we will never know for sure.

And how exciting would it be if that were somehow to be confirmed? Now that would definitely be a LUNAR moment!

[KeyJockey]

So far, there have been a number of other coins accepted on markets for varying amounts of time.
LTC,dash(was it?) and others I don't remember, they all faded away because they were never used. ...

Other people have pointed that out before, i.e. that other anon coins have been given a try-out in the DNM's before but they all failed to stick.

The BIG DIFFERENCE this time, I think, is that NOW there is an increasing use of so-called Chain-Analysis ramping up BIG TIME with bitcoin.

Legit sites/services as well as "underground" are vulnerable to this, for even "legal reasons" like KYC/AML and monitoring middle-ground "gray" uses like online gambling.  Case in point: many people are of the opinion that gambling online in the USA is illegal for the end-user but that's not precisely true.  It's just illegal for banks and other "payment processors" to handle transacting of money into and out of the gambling websites... hence for the most part killing them off entirely *before* bitcoin arrived on the scene.

Therefore, like it or not, "technically legal" or not, IF you have even just innocently *received* a bitcoin that passed thru a gambling website even two or three addresses ago, companies like coinbase and circle and even USA based exchanges like Gemini *CAN* and *WILL* cancel your account and refuse you further services.  

The more and more this happens to just simple NORMAL USERS, even squeaky-clean fully compliant users who would never DREAM of going anywhere near the darknet markets, the more a privacy-focused coin like Monero will appeal to *everyone*.

It's coming, IMHO.... it's just simply a matter of time.

One year?  Five or ten years, etc...?  Hopefully just time enough to stock up enough wealth to retire to a nice private island somewhere