[XMR] Monero Speculation

[MrGood]

"Nicolas van Saberhagen" may very well himself BE Satoshi (S.N. / N.S.)

Who do you think Shen Noether is?

[Stringer Bell]

Other people have pointed that out before, i.e. that other anon coins have been given a try-out in the DNM's before but they all failed to stick.

The BIG DIFFERENCE this time, I think, is that NOW there is an increasing use of so-called Chain-Analysis ramping up BIG TIME with bitcoin.

Agreed! There's a huge number of use cases for the Monero style blockchain. That's why it's exciting to me - it can do things Bitcoin absolutely cannot. Bitcoin's core value proposition is that it's a censorship resistant open ledger.. Something very very different and of course, valuable just like XMR is for it's unique feature set.

Most coins that come along, it's fairly easy (in general) to make that case; That using Bitcoin for whatever the new coin's purpose was, works better than bothering with a new coin at all. Most are redundant. But it seems that XMR does fill a legit space in the crypto currency market. Only time will tell of course if that's enough to really give it the market cap it needs to support a bit of price stability and sizable investors. We got a long way to grow, but usually when price corrections happen, they happen so quickly (those big ole upwards ones that come out of nowhere), it's not worth risking too much trying to time the short term..

[N-rG]

I've been monitoring 10 different searches on AB since the launch 7/10 have seen an increase. 4/10 categories have roughly doubled the offerings since launch.

So far, there have been a number of other coins accepted on markets for varying amounts of time. LTC,dash(was it?) and others I don't remember, they all faded away because they were never used.

DASH was ~45% accepted in Nucleus Market. LTC acceptance was very low there ~10%. If it was used by customers, i don't know. But vendors accept it more than XMR today.

And no, XMR will not adapted to other markets. Look through other established markets and you'll find only negativ feedback to that.

It is 100% safe that AB will somewhen disappear (by no later than 6 month). The markets that are existent to that time won't use XMR.

So since this type of Markets are run by smart criminals they will maybe copy nucleus and AB strategy:

1. Grow
2. Buy a new currency
3. Implement it
4. Make a hype -> Pump & Dump
5. Exit Scam

This community suffers the same hype fanboys like DASH once did. BTC < DASH < XMR < next Gen.

But as we all know, only few get rich in that game. Some others live in the past and never learn by mistakes. Good for the slient readers, good for me, good for winners 

[N-rG]

The next "big thing" will be no other market in 20 years. Vendors and customers want to get rid of these exit scams.

So in the long there will be decentralized markets. Something like SDC -what bty uses TOR and I2P. I couldnt figure out what NXT is using.

Anyway this is the future. Decentralized markets with integrated private payment methods which can also used outside these markets.

XMR is something in between. Its good for now but hardly used. In the long run decentralized markets will become market leaders.

But who knows if somewhen someone will code something like this for XMR. Would be a strong buy argument. The core team cannot do this, would bring them only into trouble.

So it's literally as easy as many act like. There are competitors in every direction. Moreover every day some new technologies are going to be released. Maybe in 1 years everything will be totally different and there will be no more use for this kind of cryptos we know.

[KeyJockey]

This community suffers the same hype fanboys like DASH once did. BTC < DASH < XMR < next Gen.

Oh, Brother: IF you boil this down to what YOU must really believe here, you're basically saying that the invention of crypto-currency can never improve.

Which is ridiculous on it's face... LOL

Even you, Mr. Troll-boy, have to concede that it's *possible* that *something* will come along (some day, if not already in the form of XMR) to improve on Satoshi's invention of BITCOIN, as the first iteration of a brand new invention, i.e. a thing that's never existed in the world before.

Hardly any genuine-new-thing can EVER emerge fully-formed and *perfect* in it's first incarnation... that's probably NEVER happened even once in the entire history of the world.

So, JUST give it up, man... the BIG IDEAS here are clearly beyond your comprehension. 

All you can try to do here is tweak newbie's "fear" on the daily price movement of a few cents up or down. 

You ain't doin' shit here, really... ok?  So just GTFO and leave the real conversation to the grownups!  LOL

[MrGood]

Well the good news is today I ordered some Modafinil from AlphaBay and paid for it using Monero.

In past times I would usually just find the first bitcoin vendor I came across, but these days I actively seek out those who offer Monero. I'm sure the vendor must be pretty happy. After all, he's going to be getting all my business.

A small market means good business for the vendors that adopt it.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Well the good news is today I ordered some Modafinil from AlphaBay and paid for it using Monero.

In past times I would usually just find the first bitcoin vendor I came across, but these days I actively seek out those who offer Monero. I'm sure the vendor must be pretty happy. After all, he's going to be getting all my business.

A small market means good business for the vendors that adopt it.

To get an extra discount you need to buy XMR when NRG shorts. Waite until the price recovers and spend them. 

Personally I am willing to use XMR as a method of payment (why not - I can always buy back those coins from NRG and give him some  cash for jetskis) but the problem is there is no supply of items I want/need with a reliable source.

[MrGood]

To get an extra discount you need to buy XMR when NRG shorts. Waite until the price recovers and spend them.  

TC - Did you ever hear the phrase "don't feed the trolls"...?

Don't reference that mutha fucker.

[cryptimus prime]

"Nicolas van Saberhagen" may very well himself BE Satoshi (S.N. / N.S.)

Who do you think Shen Noether is?

It may be a coincidence or just an hommage for Satoshi, but yes at that time the Cryptonote protocol came out, Satoshi would have been one of the rare guys able to develop it.
Nicolas van Saberhagen (NS) and Satoshi Nakamoto (SN) and Shen Noether (SN) initials play could be just fun or perhaps a small hint. Would be funny if Satoshi was really involved in the Cryptonote and XMR origins.

[Stringer Bell]

Well the good news is today I ordered some Modafinil from AlphaBay and paid for it using Monero.

In past times I would usually just find the first bitcoin vendor I came across, but these days I actively seek out those who offer Monero. I'm sure the vendor must be pretty happy. After all, he's going to be getting all my business.

A small market means good business for the vendors that adopt it.

It's becoming more of an option, slow and steady, as more people look into it and 'get it', they add the option to pay in XMR. People know another currency option like this would be very useful, when the right one comes along it makes sense these communities adopt it.

[KeyJockey]

Would be funny if Satoshi was really involved in the Cryptonote and XMR origins.

Way more than just 'funny'... profitable as hell, too. LOL

I'd expect IF it was ever confirmed that CryptoNote/Monero is *REALLY* also Satoshi's work, and hence truly "Bitcoin 2.0" then THAT -- all by itself -- would probably be enough to cause the entire crypto-world to shift over from BTC to XMR almost overnight.

Yes it's prolly gonna happen "organically" anyway, over a longer time period... but imagine the impact if Satoshi himself re-emerged and just said via a signed authenticated message, "Oh, hey guys... yeah it's me and hey by the way? I did CryptoNote as "2.0" too... go check out Monero, I think you'll like it"

 

[CTTE]

Well the good news is today I ordered some Modafinil from AlphaBay and paid for it using Monero.

In past times I would usually just find the first bitcoin vendor I came across, but these days I actively seek out those who offer Monero. I'm sure the vendor must be pretty happy. After all, he's going to be getting all my business.

A small market means good business for the vendors that adopt it.

It's becoming more of an option, slow and steady, as more people look into it and 'get it', they add the option to pay in XMR. People know another currency option like this would be very useful, when the right one comes along it makes sense these communities adopt it.

And remember, they can actually mine some small amounts of Monero with there cpu fairly easily, where-as it's pretty much impossible to mine BTC unless you have some high end equipment.  So, if they started mining now with the expectation of the price rising, they may have enough to buy a bunch of stuff in the not too distant future!

[Stringer Bell]

DASH was ~45% accepted in Nucleus Market. LTC acceptance was very low there ~10%. If it was used by customers, i don't know. But vendors accept it more than XMR today.

And no, XMR will not adapted to other markets. Look through other established markets and you'll find only negativ feedback to that.

It is 100% safe that AB will somewhen disappear (by no later than 6 month). The markets that are existent to that time won't use XMR.

Do you want to bet on this?

"It is 100% safe that AB will somewhen disappear (by no later than 6 month). T"

Put your money where your mouth is, we each send 100XRM (or whatever) to a trusted 3rd party escrow, winner gets all.

You are betting AB "disappears" in 31 days, let's say. I am betting it will still be open, ha ha ha.

"DASH was ~45% accepted in Nucleus Market. "

I guess that isn't a surprise, since they were likely always planning to steal the house money. Maybe they even opened dozens of fake vendor accounts offering amazing deals in DASH, just to make it easier to steal. I don't think they got away with much however did they? Not in DASH anyway because as i recall, it wasn't used at all pretty much mate. I tend to remember these things.

It is a shitty move, but I guess "exit scam" does kind of beat jail for these dudes, so you have a point there. Still, AB could have exit scammed so much by now a long long time ago - they have built trust, they likely won't disappear with everyones coin.. They might close shop one day, but unless something major changes they are the type who'd give back the money.

[N-rG]

Do you want to bet on this?

We can do it. But not about 31 days. I said 6 month. 100 XMR are fine for me, but we can do more if you want.  I like that type of bets

"It is 100% safe that AB will somewhen disappear (by no later than 6 month). T"

"DASH was ~45% accepted in Nucleus Market. "

I guess that isn't a surprise, since they were likely always planning to steal the house money. Maybe they even opened dozens of fake vendor accounts offering amazing deals in DASH, just to make it easier to steal. I don't think they got away with much however did they? Not in DASH anyway because as i recall, it wasn't used at all pretty much mate. I tend to remember these things.

It is a shitty move, but I guess "exit scam" does kind of beat jail for these dudes, so you have a point there. Still, AB could have exit scammed so much by now a long long time ago - they have built trust, they likely won't disappear with everyones coin.. They might close shop one day, but unless something major changes they are the type who'd give back the money.
[/quote]

Your information is not fundamental. AB is in a critial time frame. That's why i come up with the comparision of NucleusMarket



Introducing fake vendors is for sure a smart idea by you. Could be so in the end. But I doubt because nucleus was too long active with DASH support and after 2 weeks too much customers wouldn't complain about scams. Mhm, but maybe they placed some price killers to the end that as many people as possible pay there. But anyway, the naked number of acceptance was better there. But I think you are the first one here who got my point. I just consider the quite common exit scam as a factor. If AB is still there after 6 month you truly deserve the 100 XMR

[cryptimus prime]

Just to add something to this DNM discussion: Do you really think, that if some of this markets would decide to add XMR as payment option, they would announce it now or first load and buy some coins?
It is delusional to think that long term those markets can exist without XMR. I think other will follow, probably some of them already load their bags with XMR now it has bottomed out.

[ArticMine]

More realistic view of achieving 10 000 usd/xmr is 10-20 years. It took 10-20 years for internet to break through so please give Monero also some years.

20 years is really a long time in terms of software engineering, so I would not expect that Monero still exists in 20 years in its current manner. I think good software will succeed in the end, so I'm holding my Moneros as long as necessary (long term investment 2-5 years).

In software engineering it's generally true that nothing's really ever any good until after about version 3.0 or so.

You have to completely throw out a lot of what's done at first in 1.0 and 2.0 before you can really get it right by 3.0 I think.  It's difficult and not *always* precisely true, but "true enough" in general that I think it may apply here.

Bitcoin is crypto-currency 1.0 -- Satoshi is a genius and got a lot of it VERY VERY RIGHT.  But not everything.  Especially fungibility is seriously flawed.

Monero is crypto-currency 2.0 -- IMHO the anonymous CryptoNote creator/author "Nicolas van Saberhagen" may very well himself BE Satoshi (S.N. / N.S.) as Satoshi "disappeared" to go and "work on other things" just around the time CryptoNote appeared on the scene, I believe.

Because of the possibility of "Speculative Attack" ( http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/ ) it seems likely that ONE crypto-currency will start to take over the world, once some level of critical mass market cap is reached.  We're still very far away from that point however... probably it's somewhere around bitcoin being worth $10,000 each at a minimum.

Whatever may end up being the final-form "version 3.0" crypto-currency may not have even appeared on the scene yet.

But we early-adopters here, all of us, are well-positioned to be able to take advantage of whatever's coming...  

SO, EVERYONE: keep THIS long-view kind of stuff in mind and go ahead and quibble over the day to day movements of price, and if you get your jollies by trying to time the market and pick up pennies in front of the steamroller here?  Go ahead, have fun, knock yourself out.

But IMHO *THIS* point of view is the antidote to all the bullshit FUD nonsense and distraction that's cluttering up this-here Speculation Thread lately.

You're welcome

Monero is more like a 2.x or even 3.0 crypto-currency rather than a 2.0 crypto-currency. Cryptonote / Bytecoin should be considered the 2.0 crypto-currency here. Some of the key technical differences are:

1) Monero introduced a tail emission which makes Cryptonote / Bytecoin adaptive blocksize limit actually viable. This is a radical departure not only from Bitcoin with its fixed maximum number of coins but also from Bytecoin that also has a fixed maximum number of coins. Yes I recognize the that the tail emission was previously introduced in Dogecoin making Dogecoin a 1.x or even an, orthogonal to Cryptonote / Bytecoin, 2.0 coin.
2) Monero introduced in the last fork RingCT. It is in the code already and will be activated in the next fork. This is a fundamental departure from the base Cryptonote implementation that apart form enabling Ring Confidential Transactions also enables RingCT mixing of multi signature transactions.

The trolls are too short term here. They are expecting 10 000 usd by tonight and if the price will not go there in 24 hours they call it impossible.
Yes, Monero will be worth 10 000 usd each sooner or later but not today or even in 2016. 10 000 usd/xmr price tag is not impossible but the timeline of hours/a few months is unrealistic.
The shorters period it need to reach that price is 3-4 years - and that requires also skyrocketing and some mad money. More realistic view of achieving 10 000 usd/xmr is 10-20 years. It took 10-20 years for internet to break through so please give Monero also some years.

We will need a serious proper solution to scaling for that to ever happen. Way way more than just an adaptive block size, database optimization and pruning.

20 years is not an eternity in software engineering and much less in business models; however it is an eternity in hardware engineering. It is this critical difference between the lack of change in business models and the drastic change in hardware engineering that explains why Diner's Club and American Express are not the leaders in credit / debit / payment card payments today. Diner's Club's business model was based upon the technology of the late 1940's namely punched cards, tabulating machines and telegraph lines. By the early 1970's the widespread replacement of the tabulating machine with the mainframe computer, while still keeping the punched card and telegraph lines, had already made the Diner's Club business model obsolete. VISA (Chargex, BankAmericard and Barclaycard) and MasterCard were already taking over the market.

The adaptive blocksize combined with the tail emission is what will make the Monero business model still relevant should the real cost of "keeping the ledger" fall by several orders of magnitude due to changes in hardware, networking etc. In this scenario Bitcoin could very well end up being the Dinrer's Club of crypto-currency while Monero could be the VISA crypto-currency. Instead of simply dismissing fiat banking and credit / debit / payment cards it is important to learn from them the lessons of history. Those who ignore history are bound to repeat it.

Edit: Database optimizations and pruning are at best a linear improvement in the size of the blockchain. The real exponential issue is the exponential growth in the market during the initial stages. The latter will likely be addressed in the case of Monero by improvements in hardware networking, etc leading to a drastic drop in the real cost of "keeping the ledger".

[Febo]

I spend some time today to learn more about dark markets and found this:  https://psychonautwiki.org/wiki/comparison_of_darknet_markets

So there are 3 kinds of markets.
Centralized like Dream Market
Multi signature markets like Alpha Bay
Decentralized markets like Open Bazar

Will centralized markets actually want to have untraceable currencies?


Also from first sight i think only Decentralized markets have future. So nor Alpha Bay or Dream Market. But i really have no ideas how they work really.

[Stringer Bell]

Your information is not fundamental. AB is in a critial time frame. That's why i come up with the comparision of NucleusMarket

Yikes, that's the truth right there. They should just legalize/decriminalize and regulate most of that stuff, like ah Portugal is it? The country that legalized pretty much everything with great results.

Still, it doesn't matter a great deal because funds don't stay on the site long these days. Money goes in and immediately gets spent, if it's a medium/high value item between repeat transactors, there's a good chance there's no Escrow anymore so the seller gets the coins before even shipping. This is how the bulk of transactions now occur. It isn't a huge problem but more of an inconvenience when they do decide to shut and run.

[Stringer Bell]

I spend some time today to learn more about dark markets and found this:  https://psychonautwiki.org/wiki/comparison_of_darknet_markets

So there are 3 kinds of markets.
Centralized like Dream Market
Multi signature markets like Alpha Bay
Decentralized markets like Open Bazar

Will centralized markets actually want to have untraceable currencies?


Also from first sight i think only Decentralized markets have future. So nor Alpha Bay or Dream Market. But i really have no ideas how they work really.

Alpha and Dream are probably the biggest right now, by a long shot. They operate in the same way.

I don't think people sell drugs on Open Bazar..  It's discouraged I think.

[Stringer Bell]

If AB is still there after 6 month you truly deserve the 100 XMR

I'll happily wager this if you're keen? No need for escrow person.. I'd feel bad taking your money actually fuck it