[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ThePatient]

Hmm so you guys think .1btc per xmr is  possible?

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[thefunkybits]

Getting into breakout territory, although there's some decent sized walls to break past 0.004...

Nothing that Rpietila can't take care of though  



edit: wall gone

[superplus]

Anyone that buys into your way of thinking is likely to be quite stupid, so I wouldn't expect them to have lots of cash, or to to be able to work out how to use the MSDOS-like client.

I think the point they're making is that Bitcoin has 5.5 years of development, we have a couple of months. It "feels like Bitcoin in 2010" because it's the wild west, rough and raw and unknown and hard to use. I'd hope that in the next 3 or 4 or 5 years the Monero landscape will be vastly different;)

I know what the point is, but it applies to every other altcoin. So singling out Monero makes no sense. I could single out twenty promising alts, and use the same line of argument. There is no solid reason to believe Monero will become another Bitcoin. Just because it's possible is not sufficient as an argument. It is possible that Beertokens will get a new dev, and take the coin to the moon. It is possible that there is no external world, and we are just brains in VATS (google it). There are infinite possibilities, and Monero does not appear to be placed in a position where we could say the possibility was a probability.

probability is dependent on point of view..
calling the "next bitcoin" is basically enthusiastic and no serious investor will invest based on such statements. crypto note has great potential especially compared to generic clones, which most of alt coins are.

[rikkejohn]

Anyone that buys into your way of thinking is likely to be quite stupid, so I wouldn't expect them to have lots of cash, or to to be able to work out how to use the MSDOS-like client.

I think the point they're making is that Bitcoin has 5.5 years of development, we have a couple of months. It "feels like Bitcoin in 2010" because it's the wild west, rough and raw and unknown and hard to use. I'd hope that in the next 3 or 4 or 5 years the Monero landscape will be vastly different;)

I know what the point is, but it applies to every other altcoin. So singling out Monero makes no sense. I could single out twenty promising alts, and use the same line of argument. There is no solid reason to believe Monero will become another Bitcoin. Just because it's possible is not sufficient as an argument. It is possible that Beertokens will get a new dev, and take the coin to the moon. It is possible that there is no external world, and we are just brains in VATS (google it). There are infinite possibilities, and Monero does not appear to be placed in a position where we could say the possibility was a probability.

probability is dependent on point of view..
calling the "next bitcoin" is basically enthusiastic and no serious investor will invest based on such statements. crypto note has great potential especially compared to generic clones, which most of alt coins are.

Probability is not based on point of view. Some things are improbable, so we can't go down the road of calling the improbable probable.

Probability is a term used when there is evidence from normally reliable sources to suggest X will occur. In fact, probability is all we really have. Tomorrow, the sun will probably rise.

Don't lump fantasy together with probability.

[Jshank]

It is probable (over 50% chance by my definition) within the next 3 years, over 70% of the total cryptocurrency market cap will be in an algorithm in which their balances and transactions may remain private. But I'm just a guy on the internets. But i get what your saying  

[Brilliantrocket]

If the community started a fund, would it be possible to hire temporary developers to expedite development of the GUI?

[ArticMine]

If the community started a fund, would it be possible to hire temporary developers to expedite development of the GUI?

There is a thread for general Monero donations here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=700400.0

[aminorex]

Probabilities are subjective, because different actors have different priors.  This is why we seek out experts, who have highly informative priors.  Purely frequentist statisticians cannot understand this, but Bayesian reasoning is unreasonably effective, so any pragmatic practitioner will inevitably stray from the frequentist fold.  Estimating distributions for complex real-world events is a challenging but rewarding task, and Bayes' rule is a primary tool.  

There are some general observations about the interactions of complex systems which have become esteemed as laws of nature.  These general principles hold in a wide array of important and useful contexts.  When their preconditions are met, some of them are very nearly tautologically certain.  Among these is the principle of the survival of the fittest.

I find it difficult to imagine how crypto which protects the privacy of the user can fail to out-compete crypto which exposes the user to any and every bad actor who desires to take advantage of their naive publication of their most intimate financial details.  The funds of the former group are conserved, while the funds of the latter group are dissipated due to losses by extortion, theft, and fraud.  Consequently the dominant pool of wealth is a foregone conclusion.

[nutildah]

You know, rpietila has-first hand contact with the XMR team and I actually saw him put the walls and buy the XMR for his lucky friends, trying to discredit him only discredits you instead.

I interpret this statement as meaning rpietila is one of the core XMR elements that perpetuates the marketing / propagandistic juggernaut that is Monero.

I admit its clever to appeal to peoples' intellects as opposed to their base greed as a strategy, but until you can get this coin out into the open (aka merchant acceptance and marketing outside this subsection of the cryptosphere), its really only for you guys, and eventually money will leak out of XMR just as it currently is with many, many, many other coins...

What innovations / qualities does XMR possess that raises it from the fray and makes its long-lasting sustainability an investable probability?

[rpietila]

A shocking fact to me is, how easy it has been to convince people that:

- Monero is now in the situation where Bitcoin was in 2010
- Monero fixes Bitcoin's worst flaw, lack of privacy.

People who have never owned Bitcoin are flocking into Monero starting about now. I am helping them by accepting fiat as payment.

How is Monero like Bitcoin in 2010? were you around at that time or is that from third party sources?

Feels nothing like it to me, (Cryptonote itself, a somewhat different story) Not sure how much of that is attributed to the fact the concept of p2p decentralized crypto cash is already embedded into our consciousness however.

I had my first impression about Bitcoin in 2009, about 15 seconds reading of a link I passed by. "Interesting idea, but something technical = does not apply to me".

In late 2010, Bitcoin was a general topic of intense tabletalk in our investment community. Some people bought in, the majority felt that silver still had plenty of upside left (it did, until mid-2011).

I skipped because of the illiquidity. I have always been presented with lots of investment ideas by my friends and I had learned to raise the minimum to $15k, to be able to manage the "portfolio of strange money-making schemes" properly. Bitcoin market would have risen tens of % if I invested $15k to scoop up BTC60k or so.

In January 2011, we held an hour-long public debate from the topic: "Silver and Bitcoin - which one is the basis for the monetary system of the future". As the founder of Silverbank, I was advocating silver. I won by popular vote (lol).

I made the decision to invest in Bitcoin sometime in the spring. But the price was "too high" (=$1, up 300% in just a few months). Wanted to wait until it calmed down. It didn't, instead went to $32. I was following the rise keenly, although with no holdings. When it tipped over, I strongly advocated people to sell at $25, either half or full holdings, since it would come down a lot and they could buy back cheaper.

They in turn asked me to buy back at $10. I said that in my understanding, it would go all the way to $5 before resuming uptrend. When that was reached months later, I was ready to buy.

**

What makes Monero like Bitcoin in 2010, are the following things:

- something truly new
- very much talk, discussion and debate in the circles that are in the forefront of technical and economic developments
- totally outside the mainstream thinking and adoption, but holds clear promise to go there
- ridiculously small market cap ($5M)
- rich people cannot get in despite interest, due to illiquidity
- difficult to buy (only BTC at present)
- difficult to use (then most hold BTC at Gox, similarly now)
- fanatical community doing what it takes to make it big
- sense of belonging to the community

The majority of people are not sensitive to energies, but the energy of Monero now is same as Bitcoin then. Currently Bitcoin's energy is foul, it has been so much raped by ruthless regulators, stolen by exchange owners and governments, is steered by a foundation that we don't know if it is trying to represent Bitcoin's best interests or not (with western governments, the good thing is we already know the answer and the truth makes us free).

[rpietila]

What innovations / qualities does XMR possess that raises it from the fray and makes its long-lasting sustainability an investable probability?

Fair launch. Anonymity.

Most people are simple. Those things are more than enough to make Monero a backbone of all honest people's finances. There is very little fair launch and anonymity in the world's fiat systems. Even Bitcoin is largely in the hands of bad guys. Gold and silver cannot be transacted.

[fluffypony]

If the community started a fund, would it be possible to hire temporary developers to expedite development of the GUI?

We don't lack the resources (as in highly skilled developers), we lack funds to allow them and us to spend more time on this.

[Kyune]

I think Monero has two obstacles to overcome before it permanently moves up into a higher price bracket, relative to Bitcoin.

First, Monero will need to definitively put to rest the perception -- whether accurate or not -- that Monero may have a bloat problem, in terms of blockchain size and/or memory usage.  This perception has dogged Monero from the beginning and it does Monero no favors. 

Second, Monero will need a no frills GUI -- something simple and easy, friendlier than the command line interface.  I love me a good CLI.  Many don't.

I am confident both of these issues will get addressed.   All in good time.

[dEBRUYNE]

If the community started a fund, would it be possible to hire temporary developers to expedite development of the GUI?

We don't lack the resources (as in highly skilled developers), we lack funds to allow them and us to spend more time on this.

How much is needed for this? Maybe if this was made public it would speed up the donations.

[dEBRUYNE]

Around 6.5k support @ 0.004, lets see if this holds!

[NapoleonBonaparte]

Around 6.5k support @ 0.004, lets see if this holds!

Got to give it to XMR supporters for being persistence and patient. If they can hold the attitude for a few years and keep working on adding features, may be it will reach 2nd spot in a few years.

[Lauda]

I think Monero has two obstacles to overcome before it permanently moves up into a higher price bracket, relative to Bitcoin.

First, Monero will need to definitively put to rest the perception -- whether accurate or not -- that Monero may have a bloat problem, in terms of blockchain size and/or memory usage.  This perception has dogged Monero from the beginning and it does Monero no favors. 

Second, Monero will need a no frills GUI -- something simple and easy, friendlier than the command line interface.  I love me a good CLI.  Many don't.

I am confident both of these issues will get addressed.   All in good time.

The bloat/blockchain size is not a problem. It will not be a problem in even 5 years, stop with the nonsense. People are getting this wrong (so have I).
Fluffy can throw you some numbers and you will see. I do however see a problem with the memory usage, 3+ GB of RAM is indeed too much. I was forced to close most of my work that I had previously started.
A GUI is necessary for adoption! Many do not like using a console, and even more do not know how to use one.

[Its About Sharing]

I'm curious, if you wanted to acquire Monero, considering what the order book looks like, how would you go about doing it?
It seems to me that the relative illiquidity is causing buyers, from what I notice, to spike prices from buying chunks at a time.
As I just mentioned in the Monero Economics thread, I noticed a large 52BTC (or so) buy go through for close to 13,000 Monero. That jacked
the price from .0038 to .0041 and now it is settled at .00388. I'm sure at these prices, in the end, it won't matter much, but I wonder
is this the best way to acquire XMR in relative bulk?

I would try fairly large buy walls at 3% or so below current prices. Has anything similar been happening?
At least I would just have a bot constantly picking up coins in a range, has this happened from your your point of view?
Just trying to learn here.

Its about sharing

[rpietila]

Some of the working strategies include:

- market making (holding both multiple buy and sell orders spaced around the current price) to capture volatility
- buy ladder (having multiple buy orders somewhat apart from each other and periodically delete the lowest and put a new one on top of the highest one)
- in a downtrend, put a small bid in front of every large existing bid, waiting for a dump
- in an uptrend, try to keep your very small order on top of the bids
- in an uptrend, market buy, especially if there is a sell wall nearby so that you can secure a large amount

[Its About Sharing]

Some of the working strategies include:

- market making (holding both multiple buy and sell orders spaced around the current price) to capture volatility
- buy ladder (having multiple buy orders somewhat apart from each other and periodically delete the lowest and put a new one on top of the highest one)
- in a downtrend, put a small bid in front of every large existing bid, waiting for a dump
- in an uptrend, try to keep your very small order on top of the bids
- in an uptrend, market buy, especially if there is a sell wall nearby so that you can secure a large amount

Thanks. That is very interesting.
I would understand if you don't want to answer this next question - But, have you seen the above transpire? (Might take more than an eye, perhaps some analysis tools of course.)
From my simplistic perspective, it certainly looks like there is a party that is accumulating but I wonder if others have been paying attention to what you posted, and more???
The volume alone is screaming out.

IAS