[XMR] Monero Speculation

[David Latapie]

("fiat pays the bill, BTC buys XMR, XMR paves the future")

lol well said, thats some good elevator speech

Caught at my own game! Good catch.
https://pay.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/2e4w03/moneros_elevators_speech/ck5d7wr

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[Skinnkavaj]

USD marketcap hitting ATH tomorrow most likely.

[rikkejohn]

Price dropping, even with BTC dropping.

But still a lot of trade, sideways and down.

That market cap is the thing that matters .. apparently.

[Skinnkavaj]

You know that XMR is doing great when

... Unavailing the truth about... threads appear
... It holds up during BTC crashes
... It gets bought up as quickly as condoms do in Thailand
... It gets mentioned in Bitcoin bullbear report
... It have no unofficial official GUI
... It passes USD all time high marked cap again
... It is destined to be used for Open Bazaar

[rikkejohn]

You know that XMR is doing great when

... It holds up during BTC crashes
... It gets bought up as quickly as condoms do in Thailand
... It gets mentioned in Bitcoin bullbear report
... It have no unofficial official GUI
... It passes USD all time high marked cap again
... It is destined to be used for Open Bazaar

Well all of those points are kind of lame.

... many coins hold up during BTC crashes, especially if sponsored by Polonix et al
... It doesn't ... and the sideways trading suggests Feathercoin tactics
... Okay, well .... erm
... It does, I made one on my Commodore 64
... Feathercoin again
... haha

[Skinnkavaj]

rikkejohn, the fact that XMR is mentioned in Bitcoin bullbear report is big, they do never write about altcoins except LTC. They have had that premium trading magazine for a couple of years now

[rikkejohn]

rikkejohn, the fact that XMR is mentioned in Bitcoin bullbear report is big, they do never write about altcoins except LTC. They have had that premium trading magazine for a couple of years now

It's not big, it is a report (I guess), and given the noise made lately and the volume traded at Poloniex maybe a mention was worthwhile.

It proves nothing about the future.

Seriously: Does the sideways trading not worry you? I've been involved with alts for a long time, so I know when a coin is having its price held up, and pushed up.

Now that doesn't mean we have hit the peak, we could go another 50% or more. But there is a peak on this, and I suspect from that point there will be a massive tumble.

I wouldn't touch Monero with a barge pole. It is on such thin ground, and a few movers pulling out of the market cap game will see it nosedive.

You'll see I'm right, eventually. But if you are genuine I hope you win on this.

[Skinnkavaj]

Monero.
Reasons: Excellent anonymity. Currently sits on 5th spot on www.Coingecko.com but only 11 on www.coinmarketcap.com
This means that Monero is undervalued right now.

Here is a comparison I made with Monero v.s other coins.




First. Let's look at Blackcoin a pump and dump currently at 16 spot at Coinmarketcap. Chart indicates two peaks, with no rebound and currently falling more for every day. Notice the low volume after the initial two pump and dumps. It is incredibly small.



Secondly let's look at Xcurrency. An incredible huge pump and dump with zero volume except it's initial peak. This train crashed already at first station.  



And now let's take a look at Monero.  USD marketcap is once again reaching it's previous all time high and volume is there. This tells that demand for XMR is still very high for it's current price.

[rpietila]

Typically altcoins are designed to be pump and dumps, where the business model of the founders is to pump up the exchange rate of the coin, and then sell as much as they can (which is typically not very much) at high price, and then move on to the next project while leaving the users debate about if the coin has future or not.

Monero and Bitcoin have the win-win earnings model. We build the ecosystem in the long run, confident that the more people we get on board, the more valuable everybody's coins become. Dump is not an issue, the only person losing is the one selling out cheaply, and it is OK since we need dispersion. Newcomers also win, unlike in other coins where the direction is down.

[dEBRUYNE]

I think after this little correction, we will push further upwards. We are still in the upwards "channel". I think we will lose steam once we are around +- 0.006. What are your opinions on this rpitiela?

[rpietila]

The following is only speculation about the price, and not intended to affect the trading decisions. Often trading decisions need to take into account volume, tax and other considerations.

Scenarios:

Fatal. Any of the following: Monero is found out to be a high level scam, Poloniex is hacked and coins stolen, tech breaks down etc. This would lead the supporters of Monero to stop their buying, and many speculators selling their coins. The exchange rate plummets to anything between 0 and 300. Going to zero in a short time is not likely unless the network totally crashes or even then (Goxcoins still have some value). The likelihood of this happening in the next 30 days is 1-5%.

Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.

Slightly negative. Price fails to break 580 this week, and retreats back to 400, however the previous bottom in 290 is not threatened. Accumulation phase may continue in the sticky price area of 400-450. Likelihood 20-40%

Neutral. Slow grind higher continues with occasional spikes and dumps, 580 is taken but no definite push towards ATH. Likelihood 20-40%.

Slightly positive. The uptrend continues with a higher ascent, about 3-4% per day, leading to near 1000 before 30 days, which will likely to be a venue of some shuffling of the deck. Likelihood 10-20%

Positive. 1000 is destroyed and march higher goes on relentlessly (may also make a bubble top and come down in the space of 30 days, nevertheless only after making a new ATH). Likelihood 10-20%.

Stellar. Some external event means that investment capital flocks into Monero, and even $10 million compared to the market cap of about the same range means that a completely new range is established. Price can go to 5000 in an instant, yet will find its support level much lower. Likelihood 2-10%.

[smooth]

Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.

What is your opinion on the effect of BTC continuing lower? In the past few weeks we've seen BTC give up 600 after staying roughly in that range for a while (since May), and now it seems it might be giving up 500. I wonder what the effect of this might have on Monero.

[rpietila]

Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.

What is your opinion on the effect of BTC continuing lower? In the past few weeks we've seen BTC give up 600 after staying roughly in that range for a while (since May), and now it seems it might be giving up 500. I wonder what the effect of this might have on Monero.

Well personally it has made me buy more of it.. don't know about the others

Perhaps this is a rationalized response to the primal urge to sell BTC, which cannot be done due to my resolution of not selling below 3000. Switching to something that is still crypto, has things going, and is going up, is not strictly breaking of the promise, right? 

[wachtwoord]

Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.

What is your opinion on the effect of BTC continuing lower? In the past few weeks we've seen BTC give up 600 after staying roughly in that range for a while (since May), and now it seems it might be giving up 500. I wonder what the effect of this might have on Monero.

Well personally it has made me buy more of it.. don't know about the others

Perhaps this is a rationalized response to the primal urge to sell BTC, which cannot be done due to my resolution of not selling below 3000. Switching to something that is still crypto, has things going, and is going up, is not strictly breaking of the promise, right? 

Are you open to disclosing the order of magnitude of Monero you own? (as you have for Bitcoin).

Of course, feel free to ignore my question (I personally would not disclose it in the public forum).

[OrientA]

The only positive I would like to know is that XMR is actually used in commerce.

[rpietila]

Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.

What is your opinion on the effect of BTC continuing lower? In the past few weeks we've seen BTC give up 600 after staying roughly in that range for a while (since May), and now it seems it might be giving up 500. I wonder what the effect of this might have on Monero.

Well personally it has made me buy more of it.. don't know about the others

Perhaps this is a rationalized response to the primal urge to sell BTC, which cannot be done due to my resolution of not selling below 3000. Switching to something that is still crypto, has things going, and is going up, is not strictly breaking of the promise, right? 

Are you open to disclosing the order of magnitude of Monero you own? (as you have for Bitcoin).

Of course, feel free to ignore my question (I personally would not disclose it in the public forum).

Well, the following statement does not give any new information to the NSA as it is only parsed from public sources with necessary conversions:

- With Bitcoin, I have always since 2012-1-1 owned more than BTC2,400 although always less than BTC35,000.

- With Monero, I own more than 30,000 XMR but less than 227,000 XMR.

The usual "taxman disclaimer": "I" probably does not mean any entity that you can tax.

[aminorex]

The only positive I would like to know is that XMR is actually used in commerce.

XMR is being used in commerce.  It is not feasible to know how much until its use achieves a scale amenable to available survey methods, but of the on-chain transfers I have personally observed  (roughly 80, amounting to about 500k XMR),  about 10% have been purchases of goods or services, and the remainder financial transactions.

[oda.krell]

Wouldn't it be amusing if XMR and BBR would merge at some point in the future, to create the one, definitive CN coin?

The details would be a nightmare to work out - who's going to be the lead dev? how to merge the blockchains? how to reconcile the difference in the protocols? how to establish consensus, or rather: economical majority being in favor of the merge - but it'd be an interesting, possibly long-term profitable for everyone, experiment.

Now, flame away, if you must.

[wachtwoord]

Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.

What is your opinion on the effect of BTC continuing lower? In the past few weeks we've seen BTC give up 600 after staying roughly in that range for a while (since May), and now it seems it might be giving up 500. I wonder what the effect of this might have on Monero.

Well personally it has made me buy more of it.. don't know about the others

Perhaps this is a rationalized response to the primal urge to sell BTC, which cannot be done due to my resolution of not selling below 3000. Switching to something that is still crypto, has things going, and is going up, is not strictly breaking of the promise, right? 

Are you open to disclosing the order of magnitude of Monero you own? (as you have for Bitcoin).

Of course, feel free to ignore my question (I personally would not disclose it in the public forum).

Well, the following statement does not give any new information to the NSA as it is only parsed from public sources with necessary conversions:

- With Bitcoin, I have always since 2012-1-1 owned more than BTC2,400 although always less than BTC35,000.

- With Monero, I own more than 30,000 XMR but less than 227,000 XMR.

The usual "taxman disclaimer": "I" probably does not mean any entity that you can tax.

I always think it is really cool how open you are about your holdings. I'm not necessarily sure it's wise but you're a big boy who can make his own judgement on that

Anyway, the above figures imply that the current value of XMR you own is likely between 2.9% and 5.6% of the amount of XBT you own. (At it's most extreme it lies between 0.4% and 42.3% but I think my other range is highly likely to include the actual value).

[wachtwoord]

Wouldn't it be amusing if XMR and BBR would merge at some point in the future, to create the one, definitive CN coin?

The details would be a nightmare to work out - who's going to be the lead dev? how to merge the blockchains? how to reconcile the difference in the protocols? how to establish consensus, or rather: economical majority being in favor of the merge - but it'd be an interesting, possibly long-term profitable for everyone, experiment.

Now, flame away, if you must.

That proposal is so unlikely to materialize it's best to ignore it altogether.