[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

Keep in mind the chart shows, I think, the highest possible numbers.

The effect of any block penalty (reduction of reward when miners include more the the normal amount of transaction data) is to slow down the curve a bit. Since there have definitely been periods when the penalty applied (at least during spam attacks, but occasionally other times too), the curve is already somewhat slower than the base calculation.

If there is a period of rapid adoption, then there will also likely be rapid growth in transactions and many penalties, perhaps continuing for an extended period of time. So we may end up with a curve quite a bit slower than projected even under he original parameters (credit to ArticMine for this observation).

Monero is a marathon - not 100 meter sprint.

Well said

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[smooth]

I have this graph handy......

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.msg7202538#msg7202538

eh, I dont get it, I keep reading Monero has too much inflation but its actually almost like Bitcoin in the 8th year

That doesn't sound quite right to me.

Anyway, I think most of the complaints are are really about the price dropping, not any underlying factor. Nobody was complaining about the inflation being "too damn high" when the price was going up every day.

[smooth]

I have this graph handy......

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.msg7202538#msg7202538

eh, I dont get it, I keep reading Monero has too much inflation but its actually almost like Bitcoin in the 8th year

That doesn't sound quite right to me.

Anyway, I think most of the complaints are are really about the price dropping, not any underlying factor. Nobody was complaining about the inflation being "too damn high" when the price was going up every day.

price is not dropping that much (for me anyway)

Realistically its close to all time low (for exchange-based trading), so its certainly dropped for a lot of people. Looking at the graph it is almost straight down since the August peak.

[wpalczynski]

Thanks.

I have this graph handy......

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.msg7202538#msg7202538

[binaryFate]

Looking at the graph it is almost straight down since the August peak.

Good news: since the price can't go negative, we will necessarily move up from this almost straight line. 

[wpalczynski]

This was more of an issue a few months ago, the price was quite high with many coins created daily, expensive to sustain the price.  Now the emission has already dropped from approx. 25k a day to approx. 18k. I dont think there is a need to mess with the emission schedule, especially given the possible negative blowback.  It feels like we found the bottom around 0.0011 and the price will creep up slowly from here. 

I have this graph handy......

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.msg7202538#msg7202538

eh, I dont get it, I keep reading Monero has too much inflation but its actually almost like Bitcoin in the 8th year... and after that its much lower inflation!

[smooth]

Looking at the graph it is almost straight down since the August peak.

Good news: since the price can't go negative, we will necessarily move up from this almost straight line. 

Unfortunately not the case on a log scale. And the picture there is not pretty

[binaryFate]

It does look ugly.
Are we desperate enough to switch to the next phase?

[ArticMine]

On the linear scale the downward trendline had been broken on the log scale the downward trendline is still intact as the curve above shows.

[dnaleor]

This was more of an issue a few months ago, the price was quite high with many coins created daily, expensive to sustain the price.  Now the emission has already dropped from approx. 25k a day to approx. 18k. I dont think there is a need to mess with the emission schedule, especially given the possible negative blowback. It feels like we found the bottom around 0.0011 and the price will creep up slowly from here.  

I have this graph handy......

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.msg7202538#msg7202538

eh, I dont get it, I keep reading Monero has too much inflation but its actually almost like Bitcoin in the 8th year... and after that its much lower inflation!

agreed

+ an official anouncement from the devs to confirm the emission will not be changed would be helpfull and maybe restore some trust.

+ a decision about the minimum block reward, if any, should also be made in the next months, preferable before the first birthday of monero

[smooth]

This was more of an issue a few months ago, the price was quite high with many coins created daily, expensive to sustain the price.  Now the emission has already dropped from approx. 25k a day to approx. 18k. I dont think there is a need to mess with the emission schedule, especially given the possible negative blowback. It feels like we found the bottom around 0.0011 and the price will creep up slowly from here. 

I have this graph handy......

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.msg7202538#msg7202538

eh, I dont get it, I keep reading Monero has too much inflation but its actually almost like Bitcoin in the 8th year... and after that its much lower inflation!

agreed

+ an official anouncement from the devs to confirm the emission will not be changed would be helpfull and maybe restore some trust.

+ a decision about the minimum block reward, if any, should also be made in the next months, preferable before the first birthday of monero

I've already said that it won't be changed. We don't really need to announce every non-change but there will be an announcement of the implementation of the minimum reward when we are ready to roll that out, which will not include altering the original parameters of the base reward (curve formula) or the minimum reward (<1%).

The actual minimum reward, of course, won't kick in for several years in any case.

[GreekBitcoin]

TrueCryptonaire it looks like you didnt sell at right price

What i see is that mayor selling has stopped for some days now. And if people want to buy now say 20 BTC worth of XMR they have to raise the price like 20%.
Weak hands have left weeks now. And those that look at monero to drop a bit more are getting restless that they will miss the chance to get in.

Imagine just 1 good thing to happen right now. Like cryptsy or btce(yeah i am dreaming ) adding monero. A well known news site with a nice article. Maybe a darkweb service really adding monero. Or finally some progress with that damn gui we saw pictures of it months ago and nothing came out. Even just 1 investor wanting to put 50 BTC right now is enough to make the coin going upwards.

I may be very optimistic though. In any case i am going to put maybe the last 10 BTC for me if it goes to drop beyond 0.001...

[aminorex]

We are all familiar with the absurd potential of xmr.  It is not realized until there is an xmr economy, and is determined by the vitality of that economy when it arises.  I would like to put a floor on my estimates.  Intuitively, more likely than not, an SR type site will adopt xmr during 2015.  If reasonably well run, it should rapidly dominate due to the relative privacy advantage.  Thus it should turn about 20mm usd p.a.  The float available to this economy should be at least 200k but probably less than 800k xmr.  Call it 1mm for conservativism.  A velocity of 10 might be achievable, albeit unlikely.  Thus my worst case estimate for xmr exchange value 12 months hence is 2 usd, with p>.5.  Consequently my estimate of present fair value is at least 1 usd, and I expect an upside no less than 3x this year.   That happens to coincide with the present annual rate of increase in the log-logistic fit for btc.

[jehst]

We are all familiar with the absurd potential of xmr.  It is not realized until there is an xmr economy, and is determined by the vitality of that economy when it arises.  I would like to put a floor on my estimates.  Intuitively, more likely than not, an SR type site will adopt xmr during 2015.  If reasonably well run, it should rapidly dominate due to the relative privacy advantage.  Thus it should turn about 20mm usd p.a.  The float available to this economy should be at least 200k but probably less than 800k xmr.  Call it 1mm for conservativism.  A velocity of 10 might be achievable, albeit unlikely.  Thus my worst case estimate for xmr exchange value 12 months hence is 2 usd, with p>.5.  Consequently my estimate of present fair value is at least 1 usd, and I expect an upside no less than 3x this year.   That happens to coincide with the present annual rate of increase in the log-logistic fit for btc.

1. Litecoin has a  120 million dollar market cap and tons of daily trade volumewithout any real economy. Bitcoin's real world economy is really not terribly large either. The biggest dollar-amount market for cryptos will be in as speculative stores of value. The trillions of dollars in offshore bank accounts. XMR could still outperform in this area given it's untraceability and unlinkability.

2. Accepting the premise that an XMR economy is necessary, that won't happen in 2015. A reasonably well-run (security-minded, ultra-paranoid) site will have multi-sig escrow, which of course is not available in XMR yet and the website admin will want to see other things in place besides multi-sig such as more liquidity.  

I've said it before. I'm looking at 2016-2017 as XMR's time if it's to have one.

[TrueCryptonaire]

TrueCryptonaire it looks like you didnt sell at right price

What i see is that mayor selling has stopped for some days now. And if people want to buy now say 20 BTC worth of XMR they have to raise the price like 20%.
Weak hands have left weeks now. And those that look at monero to drop a bit more are getting restless that they will miss the chance to get in.

Imagine just 1 good thing to happen right now. Like cryptsy or btce(yeah i am dreaming ) adding monero. A well known news site with a nice article. Maybe a darkweb service really adding monero. Or finally some progress with that damn gui we saw pictures of it months ago and nothing came out. Even just 1 investor wanting to put 50 BTC right now is enough to make the coin going upwards.

I may be very optimistic though. In any case i am going to put maybe the last 10 BTC for me if it goes to drop beyond 0.001...

Thank you for telling me that I sold. I wasn't aware of it.  

But yeah, I have been more or less neutral in my position since we touched 0.005 last time.
I have increased my overall position by 20 % since then (this I consider neutral).
However, if it drops from the current levels I am ready to start hoarding - and I transfer the coins from the markets so they are not available for you guys to trade (sorry) - you need to try to survive with scarcier amounts of Moneros. The more I am able to cold-store, the more there is upside potential when the big money enters since fiat is plentyful but Moneros available for trading is limited.

[dEBRUYNE]

This was more of an issue a few months ago, the price was quite high with many coins created daily, expensive to sustain the price.  Now the emission has already dropped from approx. 25k a day to approx. 18k. I dont think there is a need to mess with the emission schedule, especially given the possible negative blowback. It feels like we found the bottom around 0.0011 and the price will creep up slowly from here.  

I have this graph handy......

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.msg7202538#msg7202538

eh, I dont get it, I keep reading Monero has too much inflation but its actually almost like Bitcoin in the 8th year... and after that its much lower inflation!

agreed

+ an official anouncement from the devs to confirm the emission will not be changed would be helpfull and maybe restore some trust.

+ a decision about the minimum block reward, if any, should also be made in the next months, preferable before the first birthday of monero

It was stated a few pages ago, I already crossposted it to the normal topic. But will post it here again. We should keep in mind that the change was brought up by the MEW and not from the devs (although some of the devs are MEW members). Having said that, even if the MEW choose for a change in emission, devs wouldn't have to implement it.

Crossposting for info:

BCN price is easier to keep propped up, because it is doubtful that more than 5% of the supply has ever been in the hands of the public (others than the BCN team).

XMR is more subject to market forces, since the number of people holding more than 1% of the XMR is rather large, and any one of them may decide to call it quits and dump. Similarly the existing, or new, people can buy. Trying to either suppress or pump the price in this environment are losing propositions.

Smartest thing I've heard you say in a month. Welcome back.

Exactly

Anyway, I have been really busy lately, whatever has come out of the discussion to change the mining rate of Monero?

Nothing has been decided yet AFAIK. I think it's hard to find a consensus on such a thing, so it will probably not be changed.

PS: This is just my personal opinion.

The MEW executives, the largest voteholders, and the core team members, have been searching for a concensus for quite a long time now. Since such has not been reached, there is no realistic alternative to leaving the emission just as it is now. This is also enjoying the greatest support of all alternatives, so we can safely say that it is the best choice as well.

&

Exactly

Anyway, I have been really busy lately, whatever has come out of the discussion to change the mining rate of Monero?

Its not going to happen.

[Febo]

1. Litecoin has a  120 million dollar market cap and tons of daily trade volume without any real economy. Bitcoin's real world economy is really not terribly large either. The biggest dollar-amount market for cryptos will be in as speculative stores of value. The trillions of dollars in offshore bank accounts. XMR could still outperform in this area given it's untraceability and unlinkability.

Litecon daily trade volume is fake. All litecons exchange hands every few days. Get real. That cant happen. people are trading them on no fee exchanges to pump volume.

I see yesterday Litcoin daily trade volume is normal about 1%, but month ago was liek 30%. 1% is same as have Monero, Bitcoin have 0.3%
Monero was never slacking by daily trade volume. It always looked healthy.

[dEBRUYNE]

1. Litecoin has a  120 million dollar market cap and tons of daily trade volume without any real economy. Bitcoin's real world economy is really not terribly large either. The biggest dollar-amount market for cryptos will be in as speculative stores of value. The trillions of dollars in offshore bank accounts. XMR could still outperform in this area given it's untraceability and unlinkability.

Litecon trade volume is fake. All litecons exchange hands every few days. Get real. That cant happen. people are trading them on no fee exchanges to pump volume.

Agree, litecoins volume without okcoin (and other no fee exchanges) is around 500k$.

[bobabouey2]

Anyone taken credit for the 49 XBT bid on XMR at .001111?  Have not been able to monitor IRC or trollbox.  Saw it last night and its been around since then.

[fox19891989]

Anyone taken credit for the 49 XBT bid on XMR at .001111?  Have not been able to monitor IRC or trollbox.  Saw it last night and its been around since then.

A whale wanna buy a lot, nice