[XMR] Monero Speculation

[bigj]

In summary (in order of appearance):

1) Lower emission (need to wait for that for a couple of years).
2) Drastic increase in adoption (in numbers of coins).
3) Increased Investors.
4) Black Swan event.
5) China and Russia and Japan.
6) Having 12 middle class private people "investors" onboard.

I like to add (or is that included in 4?):

7) General media attention.

[rangedriver]

Let me put it another way.

1) GUI
2) General media attention.

Done.

[canth]

Let me put it another way.

1) GUI
2) General media attention.

Done.

What's wrong with the web wallet GUI recently released?

And I would add #3: China. The Chinese largely drove 2013's runup at the end of the year and they are running up XRP/STR right now:

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ripple/#markets
http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/stellar/#markets

BTC38 is the #1 exchange for both of these coins. If we can get the Chinese community onboard then it'll be a huge win.

[rangedriver]

Let me put it another way.

1) GUI
2) General media attention.

Done.

What's wrong with the web wallet GUI recently released?

And I would add #3: China. The Chinese largely drove 2013's runup at the end of the year and they are running up XRP/STR right now:

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ripple/#markets
http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/stellar/#markets

BTC38 is the #1 exchange for both of these coins. If we can get the Chinese community onboard then it'll be a huge win.

Nothing's wrong with the web wallet - it's fantastic. 

Nonetheless, a local GUI wallet is fundamental to user expansion. I think everyone understands this so there's no need to expand upon it here.

Agreed on China, although it's difficult to determine the cultural weight of the libertarian argument over there. I suspect 'minimal government' and 'communism' are somewhat irreconcilable concepts. ;-)

[dEBRUYNE]

Let me put it another way.

1) GUI
2) General media attention.

Done.

What's wrong with the web wallet GUI recently released?

And I would add #3: China. The Chinese largely drove 2013's runup at the end of the year and they are running up XRP/STR right now:

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ripple/#markets
http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/stellar/#markets

BTC38 is the #1 exchange for both of these coins. If we can get the Chinese community onboard then it'll be a huge win.

Nothing user-wise, but companies/websites (e.g. betting sites) strongly prefer a GUI with an API to easily track and automate transactions. @TrueCryptonaire, inflation will be drasticly lower at the end of 2015, we won't have to wait 2 years for that. I agree that BTC38 would be a huge win.

[dnaleor]

Was 0.00091 BTC the bottom?
imho, it is  



edit: if we break 0.0011 BTC on volume, I think we can leave the horror of XMR below 0.001 BTC behind us 

[coinits]

Was 0.00091 BTC the bottom?
imho, it is  



edit: if we break 0.0011 BTC on volume, I think we can leave the horror of XMR below 0.001 BTC behind us 

To save me time, how successful have you been at predicting trends with your charts? Hopefully 100% with XMR

[MataKhobRazi]

It's a chart for a period of only 3-4 days. I'm not really sure if this has a credibility...

[TrueCryptonaire]

It's a chart for a period of only 3-4 days. I'm not really sure if this has a credibility...

Exactly. XMR tends to stabilize and even rally before major dump. 

[dnaleor]

Was 0.00091 BTC the bottom?
imho, it is  

(...)

edit: if we break 0.0011 BTC on volume, I think we can leave the horror of XMR below 0.001 BTC behind us 

To save me time, how successful have you been at predicting trends with your charts? Hopefully 100% with XMR

This topic is called "speculation"
not sure what my succes rate is, but it's certainly lower than 100%

[David Latapie]

Why did the price of Monero go down do importantly ?

That is an indication of people losing interest in XMR. Less development could be the result.

The development continues as usual, neither faster, nor slower EXCEPT that this is the end of the year so until beginning of January, progress will probably be slower.

Inflation kill that coin, so obviously.

The price fell 75% since the discussions about emission curve. So if inflation was the issue, it would mean the curve shall be four times slower just to accomodate. I don't believe the "emission curve" argument matters at this level of depreciation. Monero is long term and trading is short term. Simple as that.

[rpietila]

Inflation kill that coin, so obviously.

The price fell 75% since the discussions about emission curve. So if inflation was the issue, it would mean the curve shall be four times slower just to accomodate. I don't believe the "emission curve" argument matters at this level of depreciation. Monero is long term and trading is short term. Simple as that.

In fact, when XMR was at 0.004, the emission in USD terms was about $60,000 per day.

Now it is <$6,000.

Who has an ear, let him hear.

The vote for the emission in MEW is coming these days, but we have already achieved a consensus with the largest stakeholders, and the core team, that the emission curve will not be changed.

The emission debate was never about the current price, it was about the future prospects and whether the fast-ish emission is undesirable for mass adoption or not. There was no unanimosity on this issue that is anyway speculative, so making a random change to the emission curve was deemed more scammy than beneficial.

The emission in USD terms is so low that even one person starting to buy XMR can turn the tide for the price; the lack of this means that the new emission dumping presses the price even lower. As I see it.

[ArticMine]

Inflation kill that coin, so obviously.

The price fell 75% since the discussions about emission curve. So if inflation was the issue, it would mean the curve shall be four times slower just to accomodate. I don't believe the "emission curve" argument matters at this level of depreciation. Monero is long term and trading is short term. Simple as that.

In fact, when XMR was at 0.004, the emission in USD terms was about $60,000 per day.

Now it is <$6,000.

Who has an ear, let him hear.

The vote for the emission in MEW is coming these days, but we have already achieved a consensus with the largest stakeholders, and the core team, that the emission curve will not be changed.

The emission debate was never about the current price, it was about the future prospects and whether the fast-ish emission is undesirable for mass adoption or not. There was no unanimosity on this issue that is anyway speculative, so making a random change to the emission curve was deemed more scammy than beneficial.

The emission in USD terms is so low that even one person starting to buy XMR can turn the tide for the price; the lack of this means that the new emission dumping presses the price even lower. As I see it.

It also sets the stage for a sudden and violent melt-up as the bears are getting really complacent and piggy. It has happened before on more than one occasion with other alt-coins. LTC and NMC among others come to mind. The market psychology here is no different from that of an over extended bull market that ends with a sudden and violent crash.

[dnaleor]

I get a fresh stream of fiat within a month and will start to buy more if the exchange rate is still low (around 0.001 BTC). I aim at 0.1% of the base suply (18440 XMR; not there yet, but getting close )

[dnaleor]

For future reference, I quote the OTC trades.

XMR below 0.001 BTC was OTC territory. So if you are new to XMR, this could be usefull information.
If you manage to buy at current levels, you buy at the same exchange rate as a few weeks after the launch of XMR

Graphs created and hosted by dnaleor

Reported Trades (GMT)
800 @ 0.00100 2014-05-15 20:34:56
800 @ 0.001300 2014-05-14 22:36:53
300 @ 0.001350 2014-05-13 14:45:48
500 @ 0.001350 2014-05-13 14:45:47
747 @ 0.001340 2014-05-13 13:14:49
1400 @ 0.001300 2014-05-13 13:14:48
600 @ 0.001150 2014-05-13 08:28:40
550 @ 0.001250 2014-05-13 07:30:19
80 @ 0.0011 2014-05-12 13:30:32
300 @ 0.0010 2014-05-12 13:16:57
1800 @ 0.0008 2014-05-12 10:47:13
220 @ 0.0010 2014-05-12 02:55:46
280 @ 0.0010 2014-05-11 23:08:36
200 @ 0.0011 2014-05-11 22:01:03
5000 @ 0.001150 2014-05-11 13:35:34
182.295 @ 0.001001 2014-05-11 12:47:01
102.276 @ 0.00100 2014-05-11 10:19:45
500 @ 0.00100 2014-05-11 05:35:49
150 @ 0.00100 2014-05-11 00:30:47
203.76456 @ 0.00100 2014-05-10 22:49:20
550 @ 0.001000 2014-05-10 18:56:47
26.23544 @ 0.001000 2014-05-10 11:19:43
350 @ 0.001086 2014-05-10 03:08:55
294.64 @ 0.001000 2014-05-10 02:07:32
1320.19 @ 0.001050 2014-05-10 01:23:19
552 @ 0.000905 / 2014-05-09 23:56:04
1000 @ 0.001000 / 2014-05-09 23:29:21
1080 @ 0.001330 2014-05-09 14:40:30
100 @ 0.00100 2014-05-09 09:38:02
500 @ 0.00100 2014-05-09 02:14:23
2500 @ 0.00101 2014-05-08 11:15:08
331 @ 0.0011 2014-05-08 10:09:24
750 @ 0.00100 2014-05-08 02:55:57
1470 @ 0.00147 2014-05-07 15:08:20
1450 @ 0.00145 2014-05-07 14:44:35
1000 @ 0.000971 2014-05-07 10:09:42
500 @ 0.001000 2014-05-07 10:09:42
1000 @ 0.001510 2014-05-07 04:51:10
232 @ 0.00165 2014-05-06 22:26:19
8000 @ 0.001250 2014-05-06 21:33:34
661.5 @ 0.001300 2014-05-06 21:33:34
600 @ 0.0016500 2014-05-06 20:30:36
60 @ 0.001750 2014-05-06 10:12:37
350 @ 0.001500 2014-05-06 08:39:13
2250 @ 0.001000 2014-05-06 04:39:00
400 @ 0.001250 2014-05-06 03:57:37
84 @ 0.001200 2014-05-06 03:57:37
86 @ 0.001000 2014-05-06 03:33:43
1750 @ 0.001000 2014-05-05 18:45:51
2000 @ 0.001000 2014-05-05 17:59:40
3666.67 @ 0.0009 2014-05-05 17:08:51
1333.33 @ 0.0009 2014-05-05 14:39:45
50 @ 0.001000 2014-05-05 14:06:03
3000 @ 0.000690 2014-05-05 03:23:09
1000 @ 0.000800 2014-05-05 02:12:29
5000 @ 0.000600 2014-05-05 00:38:13
1000 @ 0.000600 2014-05-04 23:35:37
1022.22 @ 0.000450 2014-05-04 21:18:53
263 @ 0.000500 2014-05-04 20:56:01
737 @ 0.000500 2014-05-04 20:56:01
777 @ 0.000450 2014-05-04 10:27:37
1000 @ 0.000370 2014-05-04 01:32:29
4000 @ 0.000400 2014-05-04 01:24:29
3000 @ 0.000400 2014-05-03 22:15:43
500 @ 0.000375 2014-05-03 19:03:49
4000 MRO @ 0.000375 2014-05-03 08:06:27
6666 MRO @ 0.000360 2014-05-02 22:03:30
5000 MRO @ 0.000350 2014-05-02 10:15-20
2000 MRO @ 0.000300 2014-05-01 09:56:22
100 MRO @ 0.000300 2014-04-30 22:44:22
1500 MRO @ 0.000300 2014-04-30 13:07:22
139 MRO @ 0.000212 2014-04-28 20:00:51
1000 MRO @ 0.000250 2014-04-28 15:50:40
5000 MRO @ 0.000250 2014-04-28 09:04:18
235 MRO @ 0.000213 2014-04-28 08:31:12
5000 MRO @ 0.000350 2014-04-27 21:15:47
2000 MRO @ 0.000200 2014-04-27 17:25:14
2500 MRO @ 0.000240 2014-04-27 06:28:10
3750 MRO @ 0.000200 2014-04-27 04:25:51
2500 MRO @ 0.000200 2014-04-27 04:25:51
5000 MRO @ 0.000200 2014-04-26 09:46:22
5000 MRO @ 0.000200 2014-04-25 20:24:43
5000 MRO @ 0.000200 2014-04-25 02:52:25
2000 MRO @ 0.000250 2014-04-24 02:03:21
2000 MRO @ 0.000400 2014-04-23 00:23:41
1000 MRO @ 0.000500 2014-04-22 03:57:27

[ArticMine]

For reference here is the chart for LTC all time http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime In the LTC case the trigger was a rise in the XBT/USD rate. In this case apart from a rise in the XBT/USD rate we have a host of other possible triggers.

EDIT: NMC Chart http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/nmc/btc/btc-e/alltime

[dnaleor]

For reference here is the chart for LTC all time http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime In the LTC case the trigger was a rise in the XBT/USD rate. In this case apart from a rise in the XBT/USD rate we have a host of other possible triggers.

like the fast diminishing block reward?
or the fact that the development is still going on? I remember NMC going higher when the GUI was launched
or you mean the fundamentals? The fact that XMR is the best privacy oriented coin 

***

I still believe in this coin and although my involvement is faily limited, I fully support the fantastic work of the dev team!

[ArticMine]

For starters the database and the GUI. NMC did not have a "database" issue. Then there is the issue of the 1MB block limit in XBT which can blow any time soon. Virtually every other coin has this issue but XMR does not. As for the emission curve even an MEW vote to finalize this issue could set it off. When the time comes the market will find an excuse.

I would think of the stock market in 1929 and turn the chart upside down. Bears can fall into the same greed trap as bulls by selling low hoping to buy lower. More recently consider the fate of pirateat40 and the bear raid on XBT he started in the fall of 2011. Greed not fear got to this bear.

[dnaleor]

For starters the database and the GUI.

true  but didn't want to make it too complicated...
DB will make clients more usable. I guess the devs want the DB to work flawlessly before they release a GUI.
We already know a lot of work is done for the GUI (we saw the print screens this summer).

Code first, then usability, finally marketing

[ArticMine]

The database is the critical one on the development side, since this allows Monero to run on most desktops/laptops. There is a reason why the devs made this a priority. The GUI will follow after the database.