[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

2015 (probably at the end of year) price target 10 usd/xmr
2016 price target 100 usd/xmr
2017 price target 1,000 usd/xmr
2018 price target 10,000 usd/xmr
2019 price target Moon.

[youngmike]

2015 (probably at the end of year) price target 10 usd/xmr
2016 price target 100 usd/xmr
2017 price target 1,000 usd/xmr
2018 price target 10,000 usd/xmr
2019 price target Moon.

Real world purposes moon 3500$ by end of the 2015 Q2 more reasonable, then 6326$ after correction, then paypal adoption revolutionary tech makes it 94384383$ then moon 

[Febo]

2018 price target 10,000 usd/xmr

I think this is already beyond the moon. But on other hand at that time about only 1000 new coins will be mined daily.

[Whtwabbit]

2018 price target 10,000 usd/xmr

I think this is already beyond the moon. But on other hand at that time about only 1000 new coins will be mined daily.

You could be correct but in 2018 a loaf of bread will most probably be worth $10,000 USD as well

[smooth]

Deleted one post (and one reply) declaring Monero to be a shitcoin, which directly violates the policy in OP

Non-substantive comments such as Monero sucks, Monero is a scam, Monero is great, Monero to the moon, etc. are considered off topic. Every post and reply should add to the discussion.

[Primitive]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

[TrueCryptonaire]

2018 price target 10,000 usd/xmr

I think this is already beyond the moon. But on other hand at that time about only 1000 new coins will be mined daily.

You could be correct but in 2018 a loaf of bread will most probably be worth $10,000 USD as well

So you are talking about hyperinflation scenario here which is very unlikely considering the state of global economy.
Deflation is more likely scenario than high inflation.
I think USD is more or less the same today as it will be in 2018 so 10,000 usd/xmr pricing is very welcomed gift, and yes - I see the potential being more or less infinite. It is hard to say what is exactly the all time high price. For calculating it you need to know the propensity of holders to sell coins (selling Moneros=buying fiat or goods and services with Moneros). I assume there are plenty of Moneros that will never be available for real economy which drives the price to ballistic numbers.

[TrueCryptonaire]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

Still it may not be the optimal entry point as the emission is still relatively high. Currently.

[dnaleor]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

Still it may not be the optimal entry point as the emission is still relatively high. Currently.

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

[smooth]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

Still it may not be the optimal entry point as the emission is still relatively high. Currently.

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

What adoption does LTC have?

As far as I can tell every coin except bitcoin is 100% speculation and bitcoin is ~99% speculation.

[dEBRUYNE]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

Still it may not be the optimal entry point as the emission is still relatively high. Currently.

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

What adoption does LTC have?

As far as I can tell every coin except bitcoin is 100% speculation and bitcoin is ~99% speculation.

The big plus that LTC has over monero is that it can be bought at a variety of exchanges, while the only real reliable and liquid exchange for XMR is poloniex. On top of that, many early btc adopters have a big stake in LTC seeing it as the silver to gold. Despite that, I think we will see a shift to coins that actually bring something new to the table (like XMR).

[Hueristic]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

Still it may not be the optimal entry point as the emission is still relatively high. Currently.

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

What adoption does LTC have?

As far as I can tell every coin except bitcoin is 100% speculation and bitcoin is ~99% speculation.

Nobl Marketplace does well.

[smooth]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

Still it may not be the optimal entry point as the emission is still relatively high. Currently.

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

What adoption does LTC have?

As far as I can tell every coin except bitcoin is 100% speculation and bitcoin is ~99% speculation.

Nobl Marketplace does well.

How does its turnover compare to speculation (I guess this is impossible to answer precisely but one can get a general idea)?

Maybe my above statement about the relative degree of speculation vs adoption would be better expressed as 99% (alts) and 98% (bitcoin).

[Hueristic]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

Still it may not be the optimal entry point as the emission is still relatively high. Currently.

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

What adoption does LTC have?

As far as I can tell every coin except bitcoin is 100% speculation and bitcoin is ~99% speculation.

Nobl Marketplace does well.

How does its turnover compare to speculation (I guess this is impossible to answer precisely but one can get a general idea)?

Maybe my above statement about the relative degree of speculation vs adoption would be better expressed as 99% (alts) and 98% (bitcoin).

Good question, I'm not sure.

[dnaleor]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

Still it may not be the optimal entry point as the emission is still relatively high. Currently.

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

What adoption does LTC have?

As far as I can tell every coin except bitcoin is 100% speculation and bitcoin is ~99% speculation.

maybe adoption was the wrong word. If people hold a coin, they increase the vale; And LTC is held by a lot of people (for reasons unknow to me, in the current market...)

[smooth]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

Still it may not be the optimal entry point as the emission is still relatively high. Currently.

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

What adoption does LTC have?

As far as I can tell every coin except bitcoin is 100% speculation and bitcoin is ~99% speculation.

maybe adoption was the wrong word. If people hold a coin, they increase the vale; And LTC is held by a lot of people (for reasons unknow to me, in the current market...)

The distinction I make is why they hold it. If they hold it because moon, then that is speculation. If they hold it because it is actually useful to spend (maybe not now, but perhaps next week or next month) that is adoption.

[nakaone]

been away from XMR for a couple months. holy cow re price.

Still it may not be the optimal entry point as the emission is still relatively high. Currently.

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

What adoption does LTC have?

As far as I can tell every coin except bitcoin is 100% speculation and bitcoin is ~99% speculation.

maybe adoption was the wrong word. If people hold a coin, they increase the vale; And LTC is held by a lot of people (for reasons unknow to me, in the current market...)

The distinction I make is why they hold it. If they hold it because moon, then that is speculation. If they hold it because it is actually useful to spend (maybe not now, but perhaps next week or next month) that is adoption.

Then I think you overestimate the current speculation rate regarding btc probably as well as xmr.

XMR has three main problems, it was priced way too high in the beginning, it was started in a bear market and until now just run in a bear market additionally it has for an altcoin a bad risk/reward situation due to high inflation.

nevertheless it has the most unique feature in the entire cryptospehere - it combines neutrality, privacy and decentralisation and probably being the first mover here.

I will only sell my stash if I see a different and better way to achieve the three points. I thought a lot about this issue and I think it is not possible to achieve this uniqueness in a different way.

[smooth]

Then I think you overestimate the current speculation rate regarding btc probably as well as xmr.

Of course we are guessing, but I just looked at this the other day along with David Latapie.

We were looking at this indicator

https://blockchain.info/charts/tx-trade-ratio

which is discussed on a blog post here: http://codinginmysleep.com/measuring-bitcoin-speculation/

It shows a ratio between exchange trading and blockchain transactions, as a measure of how much activity is speculative in nature (trading) as opposed to how much occurs for other purposes (bitpay purchases, etc)

Obviously this is not perfect. In fact I would say the actual ratio has no direct meaning, but changes over time may be significant. It shows little to no change over the years. If anything, it shows a slight trend toward more speculation.

I think actual non-speculative usage of BTC has indeed grown, but in relative magnitude it is still tiny (too small to show up in the numbers) and speculation has also grown in absolute terms (for example, hedge funds making speculative buys), so the increasing ratio may be real.

As far as XMR, I'm not sure how it is even possible to overestimate the speculation dominance, since there is almost nothing non-speculative it is possible to do with XMR.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The next things aside with the wallet (other than mymonero) is to make merchant tools for Monero.
Then establishing webshops selling groceries, hardware, you name it.

If the webshops even keep some percentage of Moneros without dumping it, it will create marketcap for the coin since there is some value which the webshops create, stored into Monero.

I think the merchant tools and especially after that webshops are the largest challenge for 2015.

This requires also more liquid markets (which is enabled partially by Moneroclub btw).

[e-coinomist]

12.5 XMR/min => 18000 XMR/day
at 0.001 BTC/XMR => 18 BTC/day

compare that with f.e. litecoin: 50 LTC/2.5 min => 28800 LTC/day
at 0.0087 BTC/LTC => 250 BTC/day

what we need is adoption, when adoption comes, the current XMR exchange rate is just ridiculously low.

There are 34,947,351 LTC
28800 LTC/day * 30 days  => 864000 new coins each month, or 2.41% new coins in relation to Available Supply LTC
(bleeding like a pig, but a rather small wound if compared to the p's size)

18000 XMR/day * 30 days  => 540000 new coins each month, or ~10% new coins in relation to Available Supply XMR

So the figure changes oposite down if you take in the different coin ages. Litecoin has more adoption, but no more any innovation power. That kinda suggests XMR/LTC trading pair on exchange sites.
If you are mining LTC, you are most probably locked in due to high hardware investment costs. Mining XMR is adoptable by everyone.

Guesswork: LTC mining will continue but we will see some inpour from this side, buying XMR, stashed away for a later day. That could start once the % dillution values of LTC are equalling XMR. Which Available Supply XMR would mark that day on a calendar? Not so easy to say, one day XMR will have grown out of it's dwarf size of 5325000 coins, but LTC just continues with 50 LTC/2.5 min. There should be some block halving down to 25 LTC/2.5 min somewhere.