01 Dec - 02 DecTotal return: 473%
Coins: SMBR
Fundamental analysis (news and updates) is somewhat important – but not as important as Technical analysis in revealing all the characteristics of a coin that make it a high or low probability trade. In fact, personally, I don’t use fundamental analysis at all when making trading decisions. Everything I need to know about when, and how to enter / exit a coin is spelled out in big bold letters in the chart and the order book. Your trading strategy should be kept as simple as possible. Overdoing things doesn’t turn a bad strategy into a good one. Trying to make your strategy too complicated with too many indicators and variables is a common mistake among novice traders and also experienced but un-profitable traders.
SEMBROhttp://s23.postimg.org/cmkrp1uyj/image.pnghttp://s23.postimg.org/mvd8uvj0b/image.pngThe whole reasoning behind me jumping into SMBR was the fact that the price ticked upwards in unison with the daily trading volume – which surged above normal levels. SMBR is also following a specific pattern of movement, which I break down
hereTrading Volume simply represents ‘activity’ in a coins market. So when you see prices moving rapidly – either up or down, this means that there is significant ‘activity’ in that particular market. There will always be manipulation in Crypto. In many ways, Crypto is probably the world’s most easily manipulated market of all. However, as traders, trading volume is our tool to spot and profit from this kind of ‘activity’.
http://s28.postimg.org/w0ojipm7x/image.pngJust look at the ALL chart for SMBR and expand the view. You will see three spikes in volume (three rallies) at roughly the same time each month. You will also see that each rally produced 30 – 33 BTC worth of volume. Coincidence?
Let me give you an example
Imagine that you are at an auction, let’s suppose for arguments sake that it’s an auction of antiques. It is a cold, wet and miserable day in the middle of winter, and the auction room is in a small provincial town. The auction room is almost empty, with few buyers in the room. The auctioneer details the next item, an antique piece of furniture, and starts the bidding with his opening price. After a short pause, a bid is made from the room, but despite further efforts to raise the bidding, the auctioneer finally brings the hammer down, selling the item at the opening bid.
Now imagine the same item being sold in a different scenario. This time, the same item is being sold, but the auction house is in a large city, it is the middle of summer, and the auction room is full. The auctioneer details the next item which is our antique furniture, and opens the bidding with a price. The price quickly moves higher, with bidders signalling interest in the auction room. Eventually, the bidding slows and the item is sold.
In the first example, the price changed only once representing a lack of interest – and in our terms, a lack of bidders in the room. In other words volume. In the second example, the price changed several times and it did so quickly with the price action reflecting interest, activity and bidders in the room. In other words volume.
Thus there is an obvious linkage between price and activity. Activity and volume go hand in hand – which is how it is simple to spot large price moves in the market in spite of whatever manipulation may be taking place.
The scenarios I described above also highlight a key point about volume.
Daily Trading volume is your only key to spot and profit from market manipulation.
Suppose this had been our first visit to this particular auction room. Is the activity witnessed average, above average or below average.
You wouldn’t be able to judge.
However – as we are traders and not auction goers we have certain tools at our disposal that reveals this crucial piece of information to us. We have the Charts – specifically the ALL chart.
The ALL chart reveals every single tick of price movement and all the daily volume stats across every coins entire history – therefore we are able to ascertain if volume is average, above average or below average, and then make our trading decisions accordingly.
Tip:
Whether there is market manipulation or not, Trading volume reveals when a price move is running out of steam (exit indicator). It reveals whether buying interest is rising or falling on a daily basis. It reveals all the subtleties of pull backs. Volume is the fuel that drives the entire crypto market. Volume also reveals when major players are moving in and out of a coin. Without volume, nothing moves – and, if it does move and the volume is not in agreement, then there is something wrong. In Crypto, volume gives you the ultimate weapon to validate price, and to reveal the true market sentiment.SIDENOTE: You want to eliminate as many poor-percentage and high risk trades from your repertoire as possible. Once you have done this, you will see a dramatic boost in your overall profitability. Trading less and taking only the best-percentage trades are such an important part of pulling consistent wins. Ask yourself before each trade, “why am I taking this trade?” If you don’t have an answer – or can’t justify the answer, then skip the trade. To develop the mentality needed to win in Crypto, you must develop a high probability strategy. It is as simple as that. You must have the discipline to sit and wait for only the most optimal trades where all the factors of a bull run are lined up and painfully obvious. Only then should you be putting on a trade. Note: BTC is a buy right now. Pay attention to the price and execute your buys at the low points. Oct - Dec will be very interesting.
Twtter: @Pumper_Ryan follow for daily picks, and updates. 
