Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[Come-from-Beyond]

Brainless people with money...
Seriously, starting a Martingale betting with 16 BTC @ <24000, doubling the bet each round, AND knowing the max bet -> 250 BTC.

The best strategy to play SatoshiDICE (or any other casino game) is to bet 250 BTC on 50%. If u win u shouldn't play anymore. The same if u lose.

[dooglus]

The best strategy to play SatoshiDICE (or any other casino game) is to bet 250 BTC on 50%. If u win u shouldn't play anymore. The same if u lose.

Fixed that for you. 

[Come-from-Beyond]

The best strategy to play SatoshiDICE (or any other casino game) is to bet 250 BTC on 50%. If u win u shouldn't play anymore. The same if u lose.

Fixed that for you. 

 

[kidgorgeous]

Seriously, starting a Martingale betting with 16 BTC @ <24000, doubling the bet each round, AND knowing the max bet -> 250 BTC.

Actually it looks like it was part of a longer martingale string starting at 1BTC

Code:

2012-11-26 02:57:04	lessthan 24000	b3a47556	6668d56e	1J6CWGD	CONFIRMED	 8.00000000	LOSE	0.03950000	26537
2012-11-26 02:55:59	lessthan 24000	9655ceda	2604fcda	12EefkA	CONFIRMED	 4.00000000	LOSE	0.01950000	27720
2012-11-26 02:55:03	lessthan 24000	1bed626e	e55adea6	12EefkA	CONFIRMED	 2.00000000      LOSE	0.00950000	35178
2012-11-26 02:52:54	lessthan 24000	b6101fc4	30a0e637	1FVVboH	CONFIRMED	 1.00000000	LOSE	0.00450000	46671

The percent chance of losing this string is 1.65%

[sgravina]

The best strategy to play SatoshiDICE (or any other casino game) is to bet 250 BTC on 50%. If u win u shouldn't play anymore. The same if u lose.

Fixed that for you. 

This is the strategy I have been using and it has worked!  I haven't bet a single Satoshi since September.  And I haven't lost anything.  My return on not betting is much higher than most everyone who does bet.

In a related matter, I am $100 ahead in the Powerball lottery because over the weekend I didn't buy 50 lotery tickets.

[Herbert]

Hmm... For a "successfull" Martingale shouldn't you take the win odds into account?
Like for a 50% win odd you double each time you loose. For a 25% win odd you have to multiply your bet by 4, etc?

[ingrownpocket]

Hmm... For a "successfull" Martingale shouldn't you take the win odds into account?
Like for a 50% win odd you double each time you loose. For a 25% win odd you have to multiply your bet by 4, etc?

For a 25% win odd (4x multiplier) you have to multiply your bet by 1.25.

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Nov-27 09:44am (up to block 209848)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    46115 |      0 (0.00000) |   45622 |     493 |     281.83 |       0.01 |    55.33 |    281.81 |   0.007
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2445 |      0 (0.00000) |    2343 |     102 |      37.83 |       0.00 |    11.94 |     37.83 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     4040 |      0 (0.00000) |    3997 |      43 |      50.25 |       0.04 |     6.39 |     50.21 |   0.086
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     5170 |      2 (0.00039) |    5123 |      45 |      80.93 |      16.08 |     5.65 |     64.84 |  19.872
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     6365 |      1 (0.00016) |    6324 |      40 |     175.64 |       4.31 |    12.60 |    171.33 |   2.456
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7909 |      3 (0.00038) |    7894 |      12 |     483.81 |     303.41 |     1.29 |    180.39 |  62.714
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    10055 |     10 (0.00100) |   10019 |      26 |     760.63 |     135.65 |    55.64 |    624.97 |  17.834
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    12225 |     23 (0.00189) |   12141 |      61 |    1691.51 |    1293.35 |    48.26 |    398.15 |  76.462
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    13302 |     62 (0.00467) |   13223 |      17 |    1877.64 |    2647.97 |    13.12 |   -770.32 | 141.026
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    21102 |    161 (0.00763) |   20927 |      14 |    3609.09 |    3448.94 |     9.35 |    160.15 |  95.563
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    52845 |    815 (0.01543) |   52017 |      13 |   10969.49 |   10625.90 |     1.80 |    343.59 |  96.868
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    18348 |    440 (0.02399) |   17899 |       9 |    5964.47 |    6236.25 |    15.00 |   -271.77 | 104.557
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    29190 |    918 (0.03146) |   28266 |       6 |    6703.30 |    6236.19 |     9.24 |    467.10 |  93.032
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    19543 |    904 (0.04629) |   18625 |      14 |    8082.22 |    9271.96 |    24.99 |  -1189.73 | 114.720
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    24036 |   1478 (0.06150) |   22553 |       5 |    5425.26 |    4937.34 |    31.20 |    487.92 |  91.006
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    27153 |   2563 (0.09447) |   24568 |      22 |   11871.82 |   12504.31 |     7.01 |   -632.49 | 105.328
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   110757 |  13570 (0.12255) |   97162 |      25 |   17153.72 |   15084.97 |     0.00 |   2068.74 |  87.940
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    31308 |   5831 (0.18638) |   25454 |      23 |   11726.21 |   11878.31 |    14.50 |   -152.10 | 101.297
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   130702 |  31785 (0.24327) |   98873 |      44 |   81340.55 |   80649.25 |   566.80 |    691.29 |  99.150
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    97224 |  35766 (0.36810) |   61399 |      59 |   79478.52 |   80392.99 |   212.64 |   -914.47 | 101.151
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   707862 | 345676 (0.48869) |  361678 |     508 |  411753.36 |  407435.87 |  2923.44 |   4317.48 |  98.951
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   281526 | 140343 (0.49891) |  140959 |     224 |  267146.91 |  261061.46 |  1709.79 |   6085.45 |  97.722
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   194211 | 142828 (0.73575) |   51298 |      85 |  187316.23 |  183947.70 |   704.58 |   3368.53 |  98.202
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    22192 |  17666 (0.79656) |    4512 |      14 |   31835.28 |   31739.39 |  1187.00 |     95.88 |  99.699
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    20790 |  17806 (0.85758) |    2957 |      27 |   32360.90 |   32001.13 |   400.00 |    359.76 |  98.888
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    15593 |  14283 (0.91658) |    1300 |      10 |   27092.75 |   27009.82 |     0.00 |     82.92 |  99.694
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     9245 |   8906 (0.98041) |     178 |     161 |   19505.11 |   19165.88 |   239.21 |    339.22 |  98.261
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1860653 | 751507           | 1107266 |    1880 |  451965.06 |  442563.85 |   163.18 |   9401.21 |  97.920
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    60600 |  30333           |   30045 |     222 |  772810.31 |  765464.77 |  8103.70 |   7345.54 |  99.050
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1921253 | 781840           | 1137311 |    2102 | 1224775.38 | 1208028.62 |  8266.88 |  16746.76 |  98.633
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      16746.76008966 BTC (1.367%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1115.45767500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       15631.30241466 BTC (1.276%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6428939  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3554143  (55.3%)
Blockchain MB:   2726.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1454.4  (53.3%)

[dooglus]

Hmm... For a "successfull" Martingale shouldn't you take the win odds into account?
Like for a 50% win odd you double each time you loose. For a 25% win odd you have to multiply your bet by 4, etc?

If you multiply your bet by a little more than you "should" then the amount you end up winning 'when' you eventually win goes up each time.  This presumably makes the player feel better.

Suppose you start at 0.01 BTC, play the 2x bet, and double your bet each time until you win.  If you're unlucky and it takes you 10 times before you win, you'll have bet 10.24 BTC on your 10th bet, and end up winning just 0.01 BTC overall, and you might feel like the reward wasn't worth the risk.

If instead you multiplied your bet by 2.1 each time, you'll end up winning significantly more.  But you'll reach the maximum bet or run out of funds more quickly too.

[apetersson]

isn't there always a martingale simplification? so instead of betting 50% two times i could bet 75% one time and save on fees. if i know my maximum bet in advance, it should be easy to simplify the betting pattern to something with equal chances but lower transaction fees by betting on higher payout probabilities.

[nimda]

isn't there always a martingale simplification? so instead of betting 50% two times i could bet 75% one time and save on fees. if i know my maximum bet in advance, it should be easy to simplify the betting pattern to something with equal chances but lower transaction fees by betting on higher payout probabilities.

But then you remove all the fun from the martingale system -- namely, fooling the bettor into thinking he's fooled the house.

[koin]

isn't there always a martingale simplification?

http://diceoncrack.com

[dooglus]

This looks familiar; another "lessthan 24000" martingale loss, doubling the stake on each loss:

Code:

Tue Nov 27 19:29:28 2012 <24000 209864 7f710e5937b8d7ce:2  1E55c3rfWqEvcME4pusz2HfpuVizuRjRUo BET    16.00000000 LOSE   -15.92050000
Tue Nov 27 19:29:28 2012 <24000 209864 dd2131d4b79068b1:1  128s6PBQsmmBpCYga21HirurLUP9fjD5ic BET    32.00000000 LOSE   -31.84050000
Tue Nov 27 19:31:05 2012 <24000 209863 2d099ca8343a5dd1:1  18yGYQqEfsDV5yWEKUKXHeHA89R6cGbcQo BET    64.00000000 LOSE   -63.68050000
Tue Nov 27 19:29:28 2012 <24000 209864 23404200ecee0770:1  16EtbAx1nWbeaHQoqZBMeNpkh65EpgndzB BET   128.00000000 LOSE  -127.36050000

[Hippie Tech]

I usually bet .04 - .08btc on '8000', then if I hit a few, I'll throw in the odd .16 - .32 bet.

I once turned .48btc into 7.5+ doing this. Then I got greedy and lost it all because I made too many .16+ bets and one accidental .888. :p

Waay to much fun ! lol

pEACe

[dooglus]

A nice profit for the day, mostly due to the failed martingale I posted earlier:

Results: 2012-Nov-28 09:37am (up to block 210017)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    46997 |      0 (0.00000) |   46502 |     495 |     290.95 |       0.01 |    55.46 |    290.93 |   0.007
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2454 |      0 (0.00000) |    2351 |     103 |      37.94 |       0.00 |    11.94 |     37.94 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     4066 |      0 (0.00000) |    4023 |      43 |      50.33 |       0.04 |     6.39 |     50.29 |   0.086
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     5175 |      2 (0.00039) |    5128 |      45 |      81.28 |      16.08 |     5.65 |     65.19 |  19.788
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     6377 |      1 (0.00016) |    6336 |      40 |     175.73 |       4.31 |    12.60 |    171.42 |   2.455
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7915 |      3 (0.00038) |    7900 |      12 |     483.83 |     303.41 |     1.29 |    180.41 |  62.712
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    10080 |     10 (0.00099) |   10044 |      26 |     761.78 |     135.65 |    55.64 |    626.13 |  17.808
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    12244 |     23 (0.00189) |   12160 |      61 |    1691.85 |    1293.35 |    48.26 |    398.49 |  76.446
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    13335 |     62 (0.00466) |   13256 |      17 |    1878.87 |    2647.97 |    13.12 |   -769.10 | 140.934
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    21119 |    161 (0.00763) |   20944 |      14 |    3609.20 |    3448.94 |     9.35 |    160.26 |  95.560
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    53185 |    819 (0.01540) |   52353 |      13 |   11216.16 |   10950.68 |     1.80 |    265.47 |  97.633
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    18375 |    441 (0.02401) |   17925 |       9 |    5966.02 |    6236.30 |    15.00 |   -270.27 | 104.530
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    29570 |    930 (0.03146) |   28634 |       6 |    6954.15 |    6442.04 |     9.24 |    512.10 |  92.636
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    19577 |    906 (0.04631) |   18657 |      14 |    8125.01 |    9272.27 |    24.99 |  -1147.25 | 114.120
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    24070 |   1480 (0.06150) |   22585 |       5 |    5426.22 |    4937.42 |    31.20 |    488.79 |  90.992
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    27220 |   2571 (0.09453) |   24627 |      22 |   11882.11 |   12505.93 |     7.01 |   -623.82 | 105.250
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   111103 |  13610 (0.12253) |   97468 |      25 |   17466.37 |   15313.89 |     0.00 |   2152.48 |  87.676
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    31770 |   5903 (0.18594) |   25844 |      23 |   12120.28 |   12191.39 |    14.50 |    -71.10 | 100.587
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   131535 |  31989 (0.24328) |   99502 |      44 |   81773.34 |   81107.95 |   566.80 |    665.38 |  99.186
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    98340 |  36145 (0.36779) |   62130 |      65 |   80502.51 |   81024.83 |   212.64 |   -522.32 | 100.649
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   710123 | 346802 (0.48872) |  362813 |     508 |  412459.75 |  408001.43 |  2923.44 |   4458.31 |  98.919
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   283514 | 141344 (0.49894) |  141946 |     224 |  268154.66 |  262055.17 |  1709.79 |   6099.49 |  97.725
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   196511 | 144498 (0.73564) |   51927 |      86 |  188194.58 |  184670.42 |   704.58 |   3524.16 |  98.127
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    22427 |  17843 (0.79610) |    4570 |      14 |   32650.79 |   32650.86 |  1187.00 |     -0.07 | 100.000
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    20936 |  17916 (0.85686) |    2993 |      27 |   32611.05 |   32216.49 |   400.00 |    394.56 |  98.790
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    15918 |  14572 (0.91602) |    1336 |      10 |   27320.03 |   27229.04 |     0.00 |     90.98 |  99.667
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     9297 |   8957 (0.98041) |     179 |     161 |   19516.93 |   19177.73 |   239.21 |    339.20 |  98.262
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1872249 | 756529           | 1113830 |    1890 |  454963.62 |  445326.46 |   163.32 |   9637.15 |  97.882
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    60984 |  30459           |   30303 |     222 |  776438.23 |  768507.29 |  8103.70 |   7930.93 |  98.979
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1933233 | 786988           | 1144133 |    2112 | 1231401.86 | 1213833.76 |  8267.02 |  17568.09 |  98.573
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      17568.09364586 BTC (1.427%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1127.46617500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       16440.62747086 BTC (1.335%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6465756  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3575888  (55.3%)
Blockchain MB:   2742.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1463.1  (53.3%)

[Bugpowder]

Looks like a very good day for S.DICE... my excel sheet of over 1BTC bets made since your last chart is showing an additional 1500BTC profit.  Can it be true or did I mess something up?

[dooglus]

Looks like a very good day for S.DICE... my excel sheet of over 1BTC bets made since your last chart is showing an additional 1500BTC profit.  Can it be true or did I mess something up?

I don't calculate the profit on just over 1 BTC bets, so I can't be sure - but I would guess you messed something up, because profits are down today for both 'big' and 'small' (over/under 4 BTC) bets:

Results: 2012-Nov-29 10:32am (up to block 210186)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    48161 |      0 (0.00000) |   47666 |     495 |     298.90 |       0.01 |    55.46 |    298.88 |   0.007
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2458 |      0 (0.00000) |    2354 |     104 |      37.95 |       0.00 |    12.94 |     37.94 |   0.005
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     4073 |      0 (0.00000) |    4029 |      44 |      50.34 |       0.04 |     7.39 |     50.29 |   0.086
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     5206 |      2 (0.00039) |    5159 |      45 |      81.33 |      16.08 |     5.65 |     65.24 |  19.776
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     6380 |      1 (0.00016) |    6339 |      40 |     175.74 |       4.31 |    12.60 |    171.43 |   2.455
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     7938 |      3 (0.00038) |    7923 |      12 |     487.22 |     303.43 |     1.29 |    183.79 |  62.278
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    10094 |     10 (0.00099) |   10058 |      26 |     762.33 |     135.65 |    55.64 |    626.67 |  17.795
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    12248 |     23 (0.00189) |   12164 |      61 |    1691.96 |    1293.35 |    48.26 |    398.60 |  76.441
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    13354 |     63 (0.00472) |   13273 |      18 |    1880.64 |    2650.48 |    13.12 |   -769.83 | 140.935
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    21154 |    161 (0.00762) |   20979 |      14 |    3614.01 |    3448.95 |     9.35 |    165.05 |  95.433
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    54076 |    834 (0.01543) |   53229 |      13 |   11553.09 |   11101.33 |     1.80 |    451.76 |  96.090
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    18382 |    442 (0.02406) |   17931 |       9 |    5966.23 |    6236.34 |    15.00 |   -270.10 | 104.527
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    30364 |    956 (0.03149) |   29402 |       6 |    7291.55 |    6661.83 |     9.24 |    629.72 |  91.364
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    19589 |    907 (0.04633) |   18668 |      14 |    8128.99 |    9272.31 |    24.99 |  -1143.32 | 114.065
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    24082 |   1481 (0.06151) |   22596 |       5 |    5427.60 |    4937.44 |    31.20 |    490.16 |  90.969
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    27257 |   2574 (0.09451) |   24661 |      22 |   11887.93 |   12507.04 |     7.01 |   -619.11 | 105.208
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   111678 |  13680 (0.12252) |   97973 |      25 |   17881.40 |   15814.91 |     0.00 |   2066.49 |  88.443
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    32702 |   6076 (0.18593) |   26603 |      23 |   12988.74 |   13437.41 |    14.50 |   -448.66 | 103.454
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   132622 |  32266 (0.24338) |  100311 |      45 |   82574.50 |   82214.84 |   566.80 |    359.65 |  99.564
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    98909 |  36342 (0.36767) |   62502 |      65 |   80820.35 |   81348.26 |   212.64 |   -527.90 | 100.653
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   713448 | 348464 (0.48877) |  364476 |     508 |  413065.83 |  408639.08 |  2923.44 |   4426.74 |  98.928
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   285719 | 142458 (0.49899) |  143037 |     224 |  270002.90 |  263641.52 |  1709.79 |   6361.38 |  97.644
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   197804 | 145453 (0.73566) |   52265 |      86 |  189234.99 |  185751.77 |   704.58 |   3483.22 |  98.159
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    22639 |  18009 (0.79598) |    4616 |      14 |   32898.21 |   32849.89 |  1187.00 |     48.32 |  99.853
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    21107 |  18060 (0.85674) |    3020 |      27 |   32723.71 |   32320.44 |   400.00 |    403.26 |  98.768
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    16791 |  15376 (0.91627) |    1405 |      10 |   27730.91 |   27633.76 |     0.00 |     97.14 |  99.650
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     9423 |   9080 (0.98035) |     182 |     161 |   19545.49 |   19205.84 |   239.21 |    339.64 |  98.262
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           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  1886251 | 762120           | 1122237 |    1894 |  457553.91 |  447980.90 |   165.32 |   9573.01 |  97.908
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    61407 |  30601           |   30584 |     222 |  781249.05 |  773445.53 |  8103.70 |   7803.52 |  99.001
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                                |  1947658 | 792721           | 1152821 |    2116 | 1238802.96 | 1221426.43 |  8269.02 |  17376.53 |  98.597
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      17376.53247461 BTC (1.403%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1141.93497500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       16234.59749961 BTC (1.311%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6505827  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3600816  (55.3%)
Blockchain MB:   2760.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1473.9  (53.4%)

[Bugpowder]

Hmm... I'm going based on the data on this page

http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=1000&min_bet=4&status=ALL

Everything from block 210017 on, looks like bet amount was 8272 payment amount of 6827.  This is including large blocks of PENDING transactions from 24 hours ago where 18pEcNu lost many many bitcoins.  Do you only count CONFIRMED transactions?  Why are all these older losses still pending?  Has this address figured out how to block losses from appearing in the block chain, or is there a bug?

[dooglus]

Do you only count CONFIRMED transactions?  Why are all these older losses still pending?  Has this address figured out how to block losses from appearing in the block chain, or is there a bug?

I only count bets where both the bet and the matching payment are in my copy of the blockchain.  So yes, I'm ignoring unconfirmed bets.

I expect the bets will confirm eventually (if they didn't already).  I just woke up and am catching up on the blocks I missed overnight at the moment.

[Bugpowder]

Now those bets are listed as UNKNOWN....  Hmmm....   1500 BTC in profit disappearing into the UNKNOWN.