Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[deadweasel]

Da hell,I go to sleep and another epic rally ensues.

Please, go back to sleep.   

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[Ente]

I'm fairly new here and haven't fed the troll so I shan't just yet :p

However: I believe there will be NO 'crash' to zero. I myself would buy up as much as I could lay my hands on long before that, I'm sure there are tens of thousands of others who would do the same.

Also, looking at the wall (as much as this thread is about just that) is becoming less reliable. I'm simply all-in with no stop-loss. I don't need the money I have invested in BTC right now and am happy to let it bounce from whatever bottom it may find itself at back to whatever the market value is.

You simply cannot compare Bitcoin now with what it was in previous years, it has become something else. The highs and lows we've seen recently are a big indicator of how people are playing this market now. Ignore the actual numbers and see the general psychology of the market behind them.

The linear projection (Jan and Feb of this year) ignoring the exponential growth since the start of March suggests (to me at least) a target of around $300-$400 in 2 years time. This is the current underlying trend on top of which the exponential growth is happening, this is the only trendline I'm looking in detail at the moment.

I will of course take anything above this as a bonus.

Take all of this with a pinch of salt of course, I don't profess to be anything other than an interested partaker in the saga of the Bitcoin!

this, pretty much this.
Although I believe in even more than linear grow, at this point.

Ente

[Zomdifros]

The linear projection (Jan and Feb of this year) ignoring the exponential growth since the start of March suggests (to me at least) a target of around $300-$400 in 2 years time.

How bearish!

If Bitcoin only gets to $400 by 2015 I would be deeply disappointed. I am aware of the massive risk of sounding incredibly silly in case Bitcoin somehow doesn't make it, but currently I would say the chance of that happening is well below 10%. If Bitcoin does succeed though, a total value of all coins of $5 billion is insignificant. We will reach that point much sooner.

[ManBearPig]

The linear projection (Jan and Feb of this year) ignoring the exponential growth since the start of March suggests (to me at least) a target of around $300-$400 in 2 years time.

How bearish!

If Bitcoin only gets to $400 by 2015 I would be deeply disappointed. I am aware of the massive risk of sounding incredibly silly in case Bitcoin somehow doesn't make it, but currently I would say the chance of that happening is well below 10%. If Bitcoin does succeed though, a total value of all coins of $5 billion is insignificant. We will reach that point much sooner.

Haha, yes I suppose on this thread it makes me a bear, definitely not a bear troll though

Seriously, I've made (and lost) large sums before, I will consider that a "win".

[Richy_T]

Another milestone passed.

This is incredible.

I think we need to start naming these epochs...

[Crazy]

They've already been named, see your nearest bubble infograph.

[Richy_T]

Are you sure you would have kept holding, no matter what all kinds of jackasses were fucking around with in the pandemonium that is the illiquid bitcoin market between August 2011 and August 2012?(I believe you have heard about the Bitcoinica farce and the BTCST saga)

Yes, likely. After all it was just $1k, and I had plenty of other things to do during 2011-2012. Just bothering to think about selling it would have been too much.. I almost never sell anything. I still own mining stocks that peaked in May, 2006, you believe me now?!  

What I am saying about the recent trades, this is just a sorry silverbug trying to play catch up, and no chance I will be numbered with the large holders ever, that train is long gone  

Ah, we can all play what-if. If you could see into the past, you could just put everything on 1 at the right time. You operated with the information you had at the time. Retroactive regret is pointless.

Forward! to 100!

[Zomdifros]

They've already been named, see your nearest bubble infograph.

This infograph doesn't go for Bitcoin, as it is a New Paradigm!

No seriously, I'm old enough to remember the 1999 dotcom hype, how people claimed that stocks could climb indefinitely, as it was the New Economy. Of course this didn't work out as planned, yet the internet did continue it's growth. What is different about Bitcoin, is that you do not have to make a bet as to which particular Bitcoin enterprise will be successful, you can simply buy your share in the Bitcoin economy itself. And there have been things in the past which did appreciate indefinitely, think about oil for instance.

But most of all, Bitcoin is only worth 1 billion dollars, so we are truly just at the start of it.

[Crazy]

Nice, bitcoin is now as valuable as oil.

[/delusion]

no offense

maybe

[rpietila]

Another milestone passed.

This is incredible.

I think we need to start naming these epochs...

How about we name them after how many satoshi you get for one US dollar:

Now you get 1,000,000 satoshi = millionaire-era
In 2012 you got 10,000,000 satoshi = multimillionaire-era
Before 2011 bubble you got 100,000,000 satoshi = 100-millionaire era
In 2010 after MtG opened, you got 1,000,000,000 satoshi = billionaire era
In 2009 until about the Pizza, you got 10,000,000,000 satoshi = multibillionaire era.

This puts the biggest holders in the category with today's richest (public) people on earth. Just wait 

"Gentlemen, we are the new wealthy elite" 

[Crazy]

Well, not exactly. To use any piece of that wealth they need to convert it to a fiat currency of their choice, so they'll need to find enough suckers buyers to unload it on. Unless of course they want to spend it all on buying pizza through a third party, swim in a pool of cocaine, or lease some servers from fly-by-night lowendbox companies.

Hmm.. wait a minute...

[oakpacific]

Any bears feeling like to sell me some call options? Escrowing through bitcoin-otc or forum moderators.

[Richy_T]

The number 1 reason that BTC will increase in value:

...with a market cap of $864 million, all of it is worth less than what Facebook (FB) paid for Instagram

Bitcoin is worth far, far more than some sh*tty program that allows hipsters to take pictures of food and was programed in about 15 seconds.

The government , through taxes and legislation causes companies to reinvest profits and attempt to grow rather than simply pay dividends to shareholders. This leads to lack of good indicators and malinvestment. Hence the above.

[Zomdifros]

Nice, bitcoin is now as valuable as oil.

[/delusion]

no offense

maybe

Hah, just wait a few years to see who is really crazy around here! 

[rpietila]

Any bears feeling like to sell me some call options? Escrowing through bitcoin-otc or forum moderators.

+1. Me too!

[420]

Wouldn't be too hard to cause a mini crash right now - bids are tiny.

Compared to how many bitcoins are likely in MtGox, the bids are thin all the way down to $1.  When the ball gets rolling in the other direction with the big guys playing, this whole thing will come undone exactly like last time.  Really, the question on everybody's mind should be whether bitcoin can survive 2 catastrophic market collapses.  It's not a matter of if another one will happen, it's a question of when, and we're getting closer to the breaking point.

fuck you, liar

[mp420]

I think we're firmly in bubble mode, but not yet close to the peak.

Over $400 is fundamentally unsustainable, because of the block size limit. I am very pessimistic about that limit, I think it will take several years of very high fees to reach a concensus about the necessity of the fork and the details of how it needs to be done.

However, I don't think this bubble will reach $400. $300 is the maximum I can imagine at the moment. And the subsequent crash will take us to below $100, likely below $40.

[Crazy]

Hah, just wait a few years to see who is really crazy around here!  

I have been waiting a few years, and will continue to wait many many more years. Realize that it took over 2 years to get a few lowly internet freemium services to even consider BTC as a legitimate form of money. You're expecting what in a "few years" (and define "few")?

See I'm in it for the long haul, but I'm not about to lose my value over inane speculative bubbles. You just got here, and seem to already believe this is a get rich quick scheme. You're part of the speculative bubble. Just don't get caught at the top.

[Richy_T]

How about we name them after how many satoshi you get for one US dollar:

Now you get 1,000,000 satoshi = millionaire-era
In 2012 you got 10,000,000 satoshi = multimillionaire-era
Before 2011 bubble you got 100,000,000 satoshi = 100-millionaire era
In 2010 after MtG opened, you got 1,000,000,000 satoshi = billionaire era
In 2009 until about the Pizza, you got 10,000,000,000 satoshi = multibillionaire era.

This puts the biggest holders in the category with today's richest (public) people on earth. Just wait 

"Gentlemen, we are the new wealthy elite" 

I was thinking of something a little more poetic.

like the 30s would be the "silver tear" era, the 40s could be "bears remorse" etc

Not sure for the 90s. "Burning oil" perhaps?

[thefiniteidea]

I know you guys hate when I do this but...



yay