ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Vycid]

AM Shares slowly trending toward 0.00

Told you all they were overvalued at 0.5.

They're worth around 0.05 imo.

Um, my price target (valid assuming no significant news updates) is 1.5. So I disagree. AM's working cash is probably worth more than 0.05/share.

There is definitely value here. People just overestimate how much. You underestimate, evidently.

Disclosure: I am short AM.

[Vycid]

Less transparent than what? Do you want FC to let the competition know his every move?

Uh, yeah, if that's what it takes to keep his shareholders updated. What do you suppose that his competition is going to do with that information? He's not e-mailing the tapeout over to BFL. The competition is going to make ASICs one way or another, if FC lets them know that's still on his game plan too... uh, so what?

Updates are far more valuable to his shareholders than to his competition.

[hlynur]

Disclosure: I am short AM.

better put it in your signature for a permanent understanding, a little dig through wallobserver thread could spit out some nice bear pics for your avatar.

just kidding around... 

[tinus42]

0.05 share is silly, that's like a month of bad dividends.
Why even discuss this?

If one is mega-bearish on AM this can't be repeated often enough.

BTC is going down to $0.01, sell al yours before you lose everything. 

[Vycid]

Disclosure: I am short AM.

better put it in your signature for a permanent understanding, a little dig through wallobserver thread could spit out some nice bear pics for your avatar.

just kidding around... 

No, seriously, this is a good idea. There's a weird double standard that I have to disclose my position every time I post, but the longs never do.

So let's just deal with that now.

[Vycid]

That kind of bear?

Destiny.

[freedomno1]

Note slightly modified  

I'm interested in buying some 90-day calls, issued on btct.co.
Will buy up to 2.5 BTC worth or in other words 10 contracts

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.5 for a premium of 0.25 BTC per contract.

Anyone interested?

If ASICMiner shares stay at 2.0 to 2.75, that's a guaranteed profit at around a 56% annualized return if it never goes above 2.5 again - about double what ASICMiner is currently yielding assuming variation etc.

Since Runeks is on the put side I'll ask on the call side
Why you may ask
I sense were in fear now and I just feel like it, Friedcat promised a certain range a long time ago and I see no reason why he cannot maintain it given the timeline and information we have. Still the most orderly thread of the three ActiveMining and Labcoin included he-he.
 Given Franktank goes by quarters were just back to the last quarter in share price and while past history does not represent future earnings by any measuring stick, consistency and delivery do merit a quarter of a year seeming like a reasonable bet for this price.
The darkest hour is just before the dawn.

If its never going to go above 3 again someone out there should want these calls  

@ Transaction fees (Watch the mastercoins whistle)

Variation range of runeks is 1.65 and lower so now both sides are covered

Just send a PM so I know if your offering any

[hlynur]

That kind of bear?

Destiny.

ah shit, I'm too late

[Vexual]

I've made quantitative value arguments that 2 BTC is a fair price only if AM is successful at retaining a significant chunk of the hashrate for many years. 10 BTC is highly unlikely.

Sure, we don't know. I like my odds, though.

Now I'm not going to present my ideas as fact, but I wonder if you have a brain injury.

[radiumsoup]

I've made quantitative value arguments that 2 BTC is a fair price only if AM is successful at retaining a significant chunk of the hashrate for many years. 10 BTC is highly unlikely.
Sure, we don't know. I like my odds, though.

Now I'm not going to present my ideas as fact, but I wonder if you have a brain injury.

To be fair, the "we don't know" part was referencing the "only if AM is successful..." part, not the value.

/objective reading

[Vexual]

So what's the quantitative information available for a fair share price?
He can't base his speculation on his own speculation and call it quantitative.

[Vycid]

So what's the quantitative information available for a fair share price?
He can't base his speculation on his own speculation and call it quantitative.

Jesus Christ, man, you can't simultaneously accuse me of repeating my arguments too many times AND claim that I haven't made them. What the fuck?

[Vexual]

I never accused you of repeating your arguments too many times.
You maybe successful with your trading, but often your logic and reasoning sounds flawed to me.
You base your decisions on market data, yet disagree with the market.
You say friedcat doesn't give enough information to shareholders, yet claim to be making informed decisions.

I think you're in a bullshit loop like the hitchhiker from There's Something About Mary

[Vycid]

I never accused you of repeating your arguments too many times.

Sorry, I'm getting people mixed up. I get that accusation almost daily.

You maybe successful with your trading, but often your logic and reasoning sounds flawed to me.

If you'd like to drill down to what you think is flawed on a point by point basis, I'd be more than happy to discuss it. I am not always right, and the means by which I arrive at my worldview is by correcting the things which do not stand up to rational inspection.

However, the vetting process for my stance on AM has been thorough and I have been confident enough for some time now to initiate and hold highly leveraged market positions.

You base your decisions on market data, yet disagree with the market.

I'm not sure what you mean by this, exactly. I use data to synthesize my outlook. The core of value investing necessarily stems from a contrarian outlook. Many of history's most successful investors were value investors and made a habit of betting against the market when the evidence supported doing so.

That doesn't mean that I ignore market data. For example - I have briefly discussed my position on ANV (NYSE) to demonstrate the concept. Profits for ANV can be estimated via (total average operational costs per ounce - market price per ounce) * ounces mined. ANV releases both the throughput and operational costs in quarterly statements.

If we use the premiums on long-dated gold options to judge the probabilities of movements in the underlying commodity, then estimate the fair value of the security (ANV) from a reasonable P/E, we can come up with an expectation value for the fair value given all possible price moves in gold.

So I can use market data and still disagree with the market. I believe ANV is undervalued and AM is overvalued.

I never accused you of repeating your arguments too many times.
You maybe successful with your trading, but often your logic and reasoning sounds flawed to me.
You base your decisions on market data, yet disagree with the market.
You say friedcat doesn't give enough information to shareholders, yet claim to be making informed decisions.

I think you're in a bullshit loop like the hitchhiker from There's Something About Mary

I can make informed decisions based on the size of the market, and reasonable estimations of long-term profit margins and AM's relative share. Also, the very fact that Friedcat is not transparent contributes to my informed decisions.

I admit that the precision of my estimates is not particularly high without the financial statements, but I still think the odds are against the AM longs right now, and will continue to be clearly against until 1.5 BTC/share (at 1.5 BTC/share I will convert to a neutral outlook pending Gen 2 news). When we were at 4 BTC/share, I was almost certain of AM's overvaluation.

[Vexual]

 The core of value investing necessarily stems from a contrarian outlook. Many of history's most successful investors were value investors and made a habit of betting against the market when the evidence supported doing so.

I am not overly familiar with the term value investing, but as I take it, it is generally buying undervalued companies, and I understand how you have used it to describe your valuation on ASICMINER; taking a position where you see it as overvalued.

Competent investors do not buy companies where the potential for forward earnings is based entirely on their hopeful speculation.

Surely you would also apply this logic to a short position too?

...reasonable estimations of long-term profit margins and AM's relative share.

So others may have hopeful speculation, but your analysis is a reasonable estimate?
I fail to see anywhere that your valuation is based on anything other than your own speculation.

... rational inspection....

... the vetting process for my stance on AM has been thorough ...

... I use data to synthesize my outlook....
 
... I can make informed decisions ...

... my informed decisions....

Now you might be right on the money, but I put it to you that your confusing posts in this thread are designed to attempt to manipulate the market in a small way, and this too forms part of your investment strategy.
I only attempt to dissect some of your posts in the interest of balance and clairty.
Feel free to continue with your obfuscatory analysis.

[101111]

I've made quantitative value arguments that 2 BTC is a fair price only if AM is successful at retaining a significant chunk of the hashrate for many years. 10 BTC is highly unlikely.
Sure, we don't know. I like my odds, though.

Now I'm not going to present my ideas as fact, but I wonder if you have a brain injury.

To be fair, the "we don't know" part was referencing the "only if AM is successful..." part, not the value.

/objective reading

No it wasn't. It was referencing the share price in 3 months time. And the point was, again, to emphasise that Vycid doesn't know - which he agreed with - so is therefore simply speculating, despite the pretentious claims of being a value investor. Of course the fact is we are all speculating, these are not NYSE listed securities we're talking about here.

Even after saying he'll stop spamming the board he continues relentlessly with his smear campaign, trying to drive the price down, and meanwhile totally derailing the conversation.

Anyway, I'm guessing he'll change his tune within a few weeks.

[tkone]

goes hold on tight, i think those promised TH/s are about to get online!!!!

hold on tight please!!!! about to see some rollercoasters?
o.O

[SOSLOVE868]

goes hold on tight, i think those promised TH/s are about to get online!!!!

hold on tight please!!!! about to see some rollercoasters?
o.O

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

[chriswilmer]

goes hold on tight, i think those promised TH/s are about to get online!!!!

hold on tight please!!!! about to see some rollercoasters?
o.O

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

Honestly, I think it's just luck... sexy, sexy luck.

[SOSLOVE868]

goes hold on tight, i think those promised TH/s are about to get online!!!!

hold on tight please!!!! about to see some rollercoasters?
o.O

Is this the new record?? something happen?? 2 gen chips into mining???

Honestly, I think it's just luck... sexy, sexy luck.

however , I remember that months before , all found blocks of AM is about the size of 20-40KB, but it is 200KB right now... I think the network's quality of them is improved.