ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[hlynur]

I understand that you want to get more cheap shares. if not , what makes you spending your times day and day to explaining to everybody that AM will be dead?

Haha. I'm not invested in AM. I effectively maintain a short position via put options. When AM goes down I make money.

Frankly, there is nothing FC can do at this point to make the shares fairly valued. It's too late; all of the dividends that could've been used for growth have been paid out, and AM will never come close to its old profit margins.

AM won't go out of business, but there's gonna be some serious adjustment. For the long-term, not the short term, by the way - I would be shocked if we ever see 3 BTC again.

I am invested in Litecoin Global (BTCT's parent company), but it's a small position and I don't pay much attention to it.

I am also invested in a number of companies on traditional exchanges but that's kind of tangential.

vycid has his strategic standpoint and it's logical he's supporting these interests with his argumentation on this thread.

I'd still love to hear arguments why Vycid doesn't seem to be involved in any other ipo? (does AM have any benefits for him after all....despite going to hell of course?)


If I read through other ipo-threads (e.g. labcoin) and start comparing, i know why i invested in AM. Imo it still has the most transparency and best reputation for an already risky investment in this market.
(this statement is written with my strategic standpoint in mind )

[prancing_around]

Are you Vycids alter ego, hlynur? You both have 168 posts as of right now  

[hlynur]

Are you Vycids alter ego, hlynur? You both have 168 posts as of right now  

it's activity not posts, don't know exactly how it's calculated though.

and no i'm not somebody's alter ego. (or at least not that i know of )
vycid is just the first guy in AM-thread that pushes me to throw my 2 satoshis in the discussion from time to time.

I think his argumentation is a bit off because if you apply his criticism of AM to other ipos on the market, you couldn't invest in any of these at all.


besides: how did you pull it off to register April 2012 and do 4 posts until now??? I feel honoured that your 4th post is about asking me being an alter ego. Can't wait for your next one.

[tinus42]

Vycid's message is clear. He believes AM is going to BTC0.00. And of course his word is fact.

[Vycid]

Are you Vycids alter ego, hlynur? You both have 168 posts as of right now  

it's activity not posts, don't know exactly how it's calculated though.

and no i'm not somebody's alter ego. (or at least not that i know of )
vycid is just the first guy in AM-thread that pushes me to throw my 2 satoshis in the discussion from time to time.

I think his argumentation is a bit off because if you apply his criticism of AM to other ipos on the market, you couldn't invest in any of these at all.


besides: how did you pull it off to register April 2012 and do 4 posts until now??? I feel honoured that your 4th post is about asking me being an alter ego. Can't wait for your next one.

Actually, yes, I am not invested in ANY mining company. Even if they deliver product, I think the storm of deliveries will actually drive profits negative for a while (due to hardware and electricity expense) as people desperately keep their miners running, trying to try to claw back their investment.

The only mitigating factor would be another large BTC/USD increase within the next six months and I honestly have no idea if that will happen. It could go down and make things worse, too.

Some companies will probably fold. I do not want to be holding a doomed company.

[Vycid]

AM Shares slowly trending toward 0.00

Told you all they were overvalued at 0.5.

They're worth around 0.05 imo.

Um, my price target (valid assuming no significant news updates) is 1.5. So I disagree. AM's working cash is probably worth more than 0.05/share.

There is definitely value here. People just overestimate how much. You underestimate, evidently.

Disclosure: I am short AM.

[Vycid]

Less transparent than what? Do you want FC to let the competition know his every move?

Uh, yeah, if that's what it takes to keep his shareholders updated. What do you suppose that his competition is going to do with that information? He's not e-mailing the tapeout over to BFL. The competition is going to make ASICs one way or another, if FC lets them know that's still on his game plan too... uh, so what?

Updates are far more valuable to his shareholders than to his competition.

[hlynur]

Disclosure: I am short AM.

better put it in your signature for a permanent understanding, a little dig through wallobserver thread could spit out some nice bear pics for your avatar.

just kidding around... 

[tinus42]

0.05 share is silly, that's like a month of bad dividends.
Why even discuss this?

If one is mega-bearish on AM this can't be repeated often enough.

BTC is going down to $0.01, sell al yours before you lose everything. 

[Vycid]

Disclosure: I am short AM.

better put it in your signature for a permanent understanding, a little dig through wallobserver thread could spit out some nice bear pics for your avatar.

just kidding around... 

No, seriously, this is a good idea. There's a weird double standard that I have to disclose my position every time I post, but the longs never do.

So let's just deal with that now.

[Vycid]

That kind of bear?

Destiny.

[freedomno1]

Note slightly modified  

I'm interested in buying some 90-day calls, issued on btct.co.
Will buy up to 2.5 BTC worth or in other words 10 contracts

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.5 for a premium of 0.25 BTC per contract.

Anyone interested?

If ASICMiner shares stay at 2.0 to 2.75, that's a guaranteed profit at around a 56% annualized return if it never goes above 2.5 again - about double what ASICMiner is currently yielding assuming variation etc.

Since Runeks is on the put side I'll ask on the call side
Why you may ask
I sense were in fear now and I just feel like it, Friedcat promised a certain range a long time ago and I see no reason why he cannot maintain it given the timeline and information we have. Still the most orderly thread of the three ActiveMining and Labcoin included he-he.
 Given Franktank goes by quarters were just back to the last quarter in share price and while past history does not represent future earnings by any measuring stick, consistency and delivery do merit a quarter of a year seeming like a reasonable bet for this price.
The darkest hour is just before the dawn.

If its never going to go above 3 again someone out there should want these calls  

@ Transaction fees (Watch the mastercoins whistle)

Variation range of runeks is 1.65 and lower so now both sides are covered

Just send a PM so I know if your offering any

[hlynur]

That kind of bear?

Destiny.

ah shit, I'm too late

[Vexual]

I've made quantitative value arguments that 2 BTC is a fair price only if AM is successful at retaining a significant chunk of the hashrate for many years. 10 BTC is highly unlikely.

Sure, we don't know. I like my odds, though.

Now I'm not going to present my ideas as fact, but I wonder if you have a brain injury.

[radiumsoup]

I've made quantitative value arguments that 2 BTC is a fair price only if AM is successful at retaining a significant chunk of the hashrate for many years. 10 BTC is highly unlikely.
Sure, we don't know. I like my odds, though.

Now I'm not going to present my ideas as fact, but I wonder if you have a brain injury.

To be fair, the "we don't know" part was referencing the "only if AM is successful..." part, not the value.

/objective reading

[Vexual]

So what's the quantitative information available for a fair share price?
He can't base his speculation on his own speculation and call it quantitative.

[Vycid]

So what's the quantitative information available for a fair share price?
He can't base his speculation on his own speculation and call it quantitative.

Jesus Christ, man, you can't simultaneously accuse me of repeating my arguments too many times AND claim that I haven't made them. What the fuck?

[Vexual]

I never accused you of repeating your arguments too many times.
You maybe successful with your trading, but often your logic and reasoning sounds flawed to me.
You base your decisions on market data, yet disagree with the market.
You say friedcat doesn't give enough information to shareholders, yet claim to be making informed decisions.

I think you're in a bullshit loop like the hitchhiker from There's Something About Mary

[Vycid]

I never accused you of repeating your arguments too many times.

Sorry, I'm getting people mixed up. I get that accusation almost daily.

You maybe successful with your trading, but often your logic and reasoning sounds flawed to me.

If you'd like to drill down to what you think is flawed on a point by point basis, I'd be more than happy to discuss it. I am not always right, and the means by which I arrive at my worldview is by correcting the things which do not stand up to rational inspection.

However, the vetting process for my stance on AM has been thorough and I have been confident enough for some time now to initiate and hold highly leveraged market positions.

You base your decisions on market data, yet disagree with the market.

I'm not sure what you mean by this, exactly. I use data to synthesize my outlook. The core of value investing necessarily stems from a contrarian outlook. Many of history's most successful investors were value investors and made a habit of betting against the market when the evidence supported doing so.

That doesn't mean that I ignore market data. For example - I have briefly discussed my position on ANV (NYSE) to demonstrate the concept. Profits for ANV can be estimated via (total average operational costs per ounce - market price per ounce) * ounces mined. ANV releases both the throughput and operational costs in quarterly statements.

If we use the premiums on long-dated gold options to judge the probabilities of movements in the underlying commodity, then estimate the fair value of the security (ANV) from a reasonable P/E, we can come up with an expectation value for the fair value given all possible price moves in gold.

So I can use market data and still disagree with the market. I believe ANV is undervalued and AM is overvalued.

I never accused you of repeating your arguments too many times.
You maybe successful with your trading, but often your logic and reasoning sounds flawed to me.
You base your decisions on market data, yet disagree with the market.
You say friedcat doesn't give enough information to shareholders, yet claim to be making informed decisions.

I think you're in a bullshit loop like the hitchhiker from There's Something About Mary

I can make informed decisions based on the size of the market, and reasonable estimations of long-term profit margins and AM's relative share. Also, the very fact that Friedcat is not transparent contributes to my informed decisions.

I admit that the precision of my estimates is not particularly high without the financial statements, but I still think the odds are against the AM longs right now, and will continue to be clearly against until 1.5 BTC/share (at 1.5 BTC/share I will convert to a neutral outlook pending Gen 2 news). When we were at 4 BTC/share, I was almost certain of AM's overvaluation.

[Vexual]

 The core of value investing necessarily stems from a contrarian outlook. Many of history's most successful investors were value investors and made a habit of betting against the market when the evidence supported doing so.

I am not overly familiar with the term value investing, but as I take it, it is generally buying undervalued companies, and I understand how you have used it to describe your valuation on ASICMINER; taking a position where you see it as overvalued.

Competent investors do not buy companies where the potential for forward earnings is based entirely on their hopeful speculation.

Surely you would also apply this logic to a short position too?

...reasonable estimations of long-term profit margins and AM's relative share.

So others may have hopeful speculation, but your analysis is a reasonable estimate?
I fail to see anywhere that your valuation is based on anything other than your own speculation.

... rational inspection....

... the vetting process for my stance on AM has been thorough ...

... I use data to synthesize my outlook....
 
... I can make informed decisions ...

... my informed decisions....

Now you might be right on the money, but I put it to you that your confusing posts in this thread are designed to attempt to manipulate the market in a small way, and this too forms part of your investment strategy.
I only attempt to dissect some of your posts in the interest of balance and clairty.
Feel free to continue with your obfuscatory analysis.