ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[minerpumpkin]

i'm just worried about share price completely collapsing. someone please save it

It's a bit unnerving, yes. Granted, sure! But it simply doesn't affect the outcome of ASICMiner's endeavours. Friedcat won't be like "Whoa, the share price crashed to 0.3 BTC, if it doesn't get back to at least 0.55 we won't be able to sell a single chip!"
If it only goes up to 0.5 after dividends come in, with the income of the first 3 months, we would be at an APR or 50%! Well, I don't believe this is going to happen without the share price reacting accordingly.

[mikemikemike]

i'm just worried about share price completely collapsing. someone please save it

It's a bit unnerving, yes. Granted, sure! But it simply doesn't affect the outcome of ASICMiner's endeavours. Friedcat won't be like "Whoa, the share price crashed to 0.3 BTC, if it doesn't get back to at least 0.55 we won't be able to sell a single chip!"
If it only goes up to 0.5 after dividends come in, with the income of the first 3 months, we would be at an APR or 50%! Well, I don't believe this is going to happen without the share price reacting accordingly.

Has anyone actually run the numbers? I'd like to take a look

[_mr_e]

If it only goes up to 0.5 after dividends come in, with the income of the first 3 months, we would be at an APR or 50%! Well, I don't believe this is going to happen without the share price reacting accordingly.

I would pop a serious FriedBoner!

[necro_nemesis]

The book in a wide spectrum of prices is thin. There could be enormous swings here in the price based on a very small percentage of the company changing hands. A relatively small percentage of shares trading could result in significant swings. What remains is div are paid for the number of shares owned so the objective is to own not value the shares if your working on the basis of value being in the dividend.

[BitHub]

do you think it could go above .5 once divs are here?

[minerpumpkin]

i'm just worried about share price completely collapsing. someone please save it

It's a bit unnerving, yes. Granted, sure! But it simply doesn't affect the outcome of ASICMiner's endeavours. Friedcat won't be like "Whoa, the share price crashed to 0.3 BTC, if it doesn't get back to at least 0.55 we won't be able to sell a single chip!"
If it only goes up to 0.5 after dividends come in, with the income of the first 3 months, we would be at an APR or 50%! Well, I don't believe this is going to happen without the share price reacting accordingly.

Has anyone actually run the numbers? I'd like to take a look

Although Jimmothy is known to be quite some optimist, I've done a brief calculation myself as soon as the chip amounts became public and independently ended up with about the same results.
It remains to be seen whether the price of the chips stays the same.

1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that?
re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.

100Ph at $0.5 profit per gh = $50,000,000 or 100,000 btc

100,000/400,000 = 0.25 btc per share. Not bad.

[_mr_e]

do you think it could go above .5 once divs are here?

It's already been higher then .6 with no divs here at all... so yes I believe it should go even higher.

[hdbuck]

do you think it could go above .5 once divs are here?

if divs are good, it can easily go >1BTC my first selling orders are at 1,15BTC

[mikemikemike]

1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that?
re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.

100Ph at $0.5 profit per gh = $50,000,000 or 100,000 btc

100,000/400,000 = 0.25 btc per share. Not bad.

Ohhh my god. Those figures are terrible. Is that what people around here are going on?!

Seriously, am I the only person who can see multiple problems with that logic?

[minerpumpkin]

do you think it could go above .5 once divs are here?

if divs are good, it can easily go >1BTC my first selling orders are at 1,15BTC

Do you guys remember touching 4 BTC last summer?   good times!

[mikemikemike]

Can someone please tell me the total amount of shares issued? Held privately and publicly.

Edit: 400,000 is correct?

[necro_nemesis]

Take the divs and keep the shares for the future. Bitcoin is going to be mined for a very long time. This is merely round 2 of AM's fortunes.  

[minerpumpkin]

1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that?
re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.

100Ph at $0.5 profit per gh = $50,000,000 or 100,000 btc

100,000/400,000 = 0.25 btc per share. Not bad.

Ohhh my god. Those figures are terrible. Is that what people around here are going on?!

Seriously, am I the only person who can see multiple problems with that logic?

If the announced prices still stand, these figures shouldn't be too far off. Although I do see divs for those batches more in the realms of 0.2 or slightly below.
We have to see though, how much is being sold and what goes into (franchised) mining. For the whole year of gen 3 I believe 0.3 BTC/share are realistic, though. At an 25% APR (like last year) we'd see a share price of 1.2 BTC. Considering div spikes, this could easily lead to a higher price.
Disclaimer: This may be far off, though, and is in no way meant as trading advice. I may be completely off and do own shares.

[hdbuck]

do you think it could go above .5 once divs are here?

if divs are good, it can easily go >1BTC my first selling orders are at 1,15BTC

Do you guys remember touching 4 BTC last summer?   good times!

AMEN TO DAT, BOYS AND GALS, STOP FUDDING, SUMMER IS COMING!

[mikemikemike]

1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that?
re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.

100Ph at $0.5 profit per gh = $50,000,000 or 100,000 btc

100,000/400,000 = 0.25 btc per share. Not bad.

Ohhh my god. Those figures are terrible. Is that what people around here are going on?!

Seriously, am I the only person who can see multiple problems with that logic?

If the announced prices still stand, these figures shouldn't be too far off. Although I do see divs for those batches more in the realms of 0.2 or slightly below.
We have to see though, how much is being sold and what goes into (franchised) mining. For the whole year of gen 3 I believe 0.3 BTC/share are realistic, though. At an 25% APR (like last year) we'd see a share price of 1.2 BTC. Considering div spikes, this could easily lead to a higher price.
Disclaimer: This may be far off, though, and is in no way meant as trading advice. I may be completely off and do own shares.

This might be my bad. I think I've got the capital wrong. Am I correct now thinking their are 400,000 shares still?

[minerpumpkin]

1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that?
re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.

100Ph at $0.5 profit per gh = $50,000,000 or 100,000 btc

100,000/400,000 = 0.25 btc per share. Not bad.

Ohhh my god. Those figures are terrible. Is that what people around here are going on?!

Seriously, am I the only person who can see multiple problems with that logic?

If the announced prices still stand, these figures shouldn't be too far off. Although I do see divs for those batches more in the realms of 0.2 or slightly below.
We have to see though, how much is being sold and what goes into (franchised) mining. For the whole year of gen 3 I believe 0.3 BTC/share are realistic, though. At an 25% APR (like last year) we'd see a share price of 1.2 BTC. Considering div spikes, this could easily lead to a higher price.
Disclaimer: This may be far off, though, and is in no way meant as trading advice. I may be completely off and do own shares.

This might be my bad. I think I've got the capital wrong. Am I correct now thinking there are 400,000 shares?

Yes. I believe a couple (2 digit range) of shares got 'lost' when an exchange collapsed and no one claimed them, but that's negligible. AM owns 2/3, the rest is being held by investors and speculators.
Care to give us an insight in your calculations or ideas what you expect?

[mikemikemike]

1) What is the status, size, and expected delivery of the next batch of chips? What about the one after that?
re 1) This month: 850k, next month: 3.35m (order size), June: 6.7m (order size), assuming each chip is 10G.

100Ph at $0.5 profit per gh = $50,000,000 or 100,000 btc

100,000/400,000 = 0.25 btc per share. Not bad.

Ohhh my god. Those figures are terrible. Is that what people around here are going on?!

Seriously, am I the only person who can see multiple problems with that logic?

If the announced prices still stand, these figures shouldn't be too far off. Although I do see divs for those batches more in the realms of 0.2 or slightly below.
We have to see though, how much is being sold and what goes into (franchised) mining. For the whole year of gen 3 I believe 0.3 BTC/share are realistic, though. At an 25% APR (like last year) we'd see a share price of 1.2 BTC. Considering div spikes, this could easily lead to a higher price.
Disclaimer: This may be far off, though, and is in no way meant as trading advice. I may be completely off and do own shares.

This might be my bad. I think I've got the capital wrong. Am I correct now thinking there are 400,000 shares?

Yes. I believe a couple (2 digit range) of shares got 'lost' when an exchange collapsed and no one claimed them, but that's negligible. AM owns 2/3, the rest is being held by investors and speculators.
Care to give us an insight in your calculations or ideas what you expect?

Will do, just trying to get the base figures correct first

Does anyone have any details on mining and any other revenue streams?

Its annoying this is nearly a thousand pages long, for new investors getting information to make an analysis is a nightmare

[necro_nemesis]

do you think it could go above .5 once divs are here?

if divs are good, it can easily go >1BTC my first selling orders are at 1,15BTC

Do you guys remember touching 4 BTC last summer?   good times!

Yeah and we also remember BTC being significantly less than it's present value.

[mikemikemike]

Am I correct in assuming mining will be @ 3PH? With 50% coming online in may June and the other 50% coming online in June July?

[minerpumpkin]

Am I correct in assuming mining will be @ 3PH?

Solo mining yes. About 30 may go into franchised mining (80% profit), maybe less, maybe more.
Selling chips remains the main strategy, though.