If you have been in bitcoin for a while, but you are relatively young, and you feel disappointed with the size of your stash, you would still be way ahead of the vast majority of the worlds population because ONLY a small number of people both know about bitcoin and have taken measures to stack sats, and as I have frequently stated, in traditional circles, there have been a lot of people who had spent 30 years or more trying to accumulate wealth and some more successful than others, and if you end up being able to increase the chances that you will be successful by investing in sound money (surely referring to bitcoin here) and even to significantly cut down the timeline (maybe even cutting in half) to become richie or able to live off your investments, then you would be way ahead of a lot of people
a bit ago, just after btc had hit 30k or so, i talked to my main financial guy whom i hadnt spoken with for a while, maybe 6+ months or so. 1st words outta her mouth were "congrats on your bitcoin call!" she was truly impressed. said more clients are asking them about btc and theyre slowly learning it. said its still a hard thing to grasp from the olde skoole point of view but once traditional finance peeps get more involved it should get interesting. of course their clients dont want the trouble of holding and using btc itself. just as an investment thing. so 3rd party all the way. but maybe some will truly understand and actually buy the btc instead of some eft or whatever thing that is offered. There are a few possible advantages with ETFs vs the real thing for individual savers. 1. Simple, carefree approach, just buy this "btc stonk" or whatever, bank keeps as usual, number go up, I'm good. 2. Easier taxes. Just another capital gain, managed with all the others without having to chase papers from the various exchanges to document the basis cost of every lot. If used this way, an ETF could be the doorway to a new breed of semi-hodlers. Of course, to curb easy manipulation it should be in kind (not cash) and strictly audited at the issuer's, which sounds a bit like a fairy tale from what we hear and know. If it even happens soon, which still remains to be seen. For bitcoiner OGs, I don't think the real thing can be beaten easily as it is. Point 1: We're used to take care of custody and have been doing so from day one, or day two at most. Not your keys blah blah. Point 2: Tax laws can change that. We'll see how this develops, but I'm confident there will be a relatively easy road ahead, now that so many big boys have joined the choir. They do lobby and move lots of votes. No lawmaker can ignore that. |
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Yes, indeed I know some BTC ATM companies were shut off in Germany already. The likely cause was exactly inadequate KYC/AML compliance (cash limits for anonymous transactions too high). |
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Much wow, very hats. Envious. |
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I think I need more coffee.
May I have some too, please? Let's say I have 1 million dollars and 20 BTC (I haven't). I don't want to spend my dollars do buy more BTC for reasons.
Is there a way, playing with futures, that I can get more dollars, more BTC, or more dollars, same BTC, or more BTC, same dollars, in the end ?
Not that I know.* The system outlined in the previous posts by somac., Biodom and others has only two outcomes: (a) more dollars, less (or equal) btc; (b) same dollars, more btc. In both cases, the total dollar value at the moment of the outcome is more than the value at the start. * (As if I would tell you if I knew! All bitcoinz belongz to me!)Case b is OK. As for case a, can I estimate my risk ? Depending on what it is, I could cover it by buying some additional BTC (granted, I said I didn't want to). I posted an ELI5 a little later. TL;DR Number go up =(a) less corn. Number go down = (b) moar corn. Number same = same corn. Estimate the risk of number go up/down? I wish I could. It's all SOMA! |
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Artificial scarcity? That's the whole thing about bitcoin, I think. Come on, let the poor horse get a worthy burial already.
It's not dead. Only sleeping. Pining for the fjords. Never seen a horse with such a beautiful plumage, I should say. |
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I think I need more coffee.
May I have some too, please? Let's say I have 1 million dollars and 20 BTC (I haven't). I don't want to spend my dollars do buy more BTC for reasons.
Is there a way, playing with futures, that I can get more dollars, more BTC, or more dollars, same BTC, or more BTC, same dollars, in the end ?
Not that I know.* The system outlined in the previous posts by somac., Biodom and others has only two outcomes: (a) more dollars, less (or equal) btc; (b) same dollars, more btc. In both cases, the total dollar value at the moment of the outcome is more than the value at the start. * (As if I would tell you if I knew! All bitcoinz belongz to me!) |
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Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin
This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges.
The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that.
*Above prices are taken from Deribit.
How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5. I posted a link earlier, here it is again. https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/The WO sometimes must be combed thoroughly, but it usually does deliver good info - be it bitcoin or digital cameras. Or you're just halftrolling and... username checks out?  I don't believe CBOE offers BTC futures anymore. And i don't see Sept futures on CME. They're not trading now but i believe June futures were trading at around 7% premium. What you're forgetting is that CME is cash settled so they won't take your BTC as collateral for margin. Thus you'd actually need to lock up 150%, 100% to hedge with real BTC and then 50% to post for margin. At 150% that would bring actual premium down from 7% to 4,7% As far as risks, you're forgetting that if BTC goes up before your settlement date you're gonna get margin called and will need to come up with more cash, or get automatically closed on a spike. Also transfer times might be an issue, you'd need to sell your BTC and transfer funds to yourself and then to your broker at settlement. Sure there are some premiums to be had if you want to tolerate the risk, just don't try to claim "140% returns with 0 risk" I didn't know about CBOE discontinuing BTC futures, or about CME futures being cash settled. Transfer timing, 3rd party risk and other factors do exist. No trade is a free lunch: even arbitrages can go awry. However, the so-called inverse futures have a mathematical structure such that short positions with leverage < 1 can never get liquidated. Just sayin'. EDIT in ELI5 form for OP - I have to add, though, that this arbitrage works either way - number go up or number go down - only because the profits are measured in fiat. When measured in bitcoin, there are profits only if number go down. So for a real hodler it's not really an arbitrage, but rather either (a) a sale (at over market price, though!), or (b) a btc gain. What it turns out to be depends if number go up/down. In other words: if number go up, you end up with a higher dollar value, but your btc value has gone down (you still give up less btc than if you had sold, because the resulting effective price is over market). If number go down, you end up with a higher dollar value and a higher btc amount too: your btc quantity goes up, since number went down and the result must make up for that, PLUS the arbitrage profit. This could be one of the reasons why short interest in futures is always so high, and futures expiry dates are so often bloody for the hodlers - just like now. |
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if im paying the fee to get into a block how is that asking others to support me? im paying my way and miners set that fee, not me. i pay to play.
If miners set the fee, we wouldn't be having this discussion. If miners "set" a $200 fee and 10,000 people were willing to pay that fee, they would not all get into the block. Thus that fee could not have been said to be set at all. It is only the artificial scarcity of the artificially limited block space that forces fees high for those that want to participate. Artificial scarcity? That's the whole thing about bitcoin, I think. Come on, let the poor horse get a worthy burial already. |
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There are many much coin with big block, some are very nice and very work much wow, like super wide cool highway. Fees no artificial high there.
Indeed there are. That doesn't really impact the fact of the fees being artificially high. A better argument is that the the 21 million coins limit is artificial too. Solid fact but that's part of the design where the link provided indicates that the block size limit was intended to only be temporary. Make of that what you will. It doesn't seem to have damaged Bitcoin so far but it has definitely limited use cases and cause disadoption in some cases. I still think the way forward is through increased on-chain capacity. I'm deeply skeptical of second-layer solutions, particularly LN. In fact, if LN is actually a success in 18 months, I'll eat my (xhomerx10 provided) hat. A serious response to my joking grimace of a post. Thank you. There are a few possible objections to your legitimate (and probably informed) opinion that the fees are artificially high, apart from L2 - which I, differently from you, believe will solve or ease the issues. - The actual block size has been made larger by the SegWit update. The bookkeeping has also changed to incentivize certain types of transactions over others. The new incentive system has deflected much public (uninformed) attention from the fact that there is more space in blocks today, not less. - If the fees are artificially high now, why wouldn't they remain inflated after, say, a doubling of the size? The more the mining power gets centralized, the more room for abuse there is. A small size, at the very least, allows user nodes to check by themselves that there's no fuckery going on. Verify without trust. |
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There are many much coin with big block, some are very nice and very work much wow, like super wide cool highway. Fees no artificial high there. It is rumored that the exchanges delisting them were giggling through their teeth something like "highway your mom if you want highway", though no one could make any sense of that. (I just had to post this for the benefit of anyone not aware.)Thank you !!!  My pleasure. |
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There are many much coin with big block, some are very nice and very work much wow, like super wide cool highway. Fees no artificial high there. It is rumored that the exchanges delisting them were giggling through their teeth something like "highway your mom if you want highway", though no one could make any sense of that. (I just had to post this for the benefit of anyone not aware.) |
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After being a scared cat for so long, you decide to buy some crypto at k56 just to fit in... now today you decide to look at your crypto portfolio and to show off but that dip on the charts makes you to start seeing things such as logo ressemblace to an empty wallet. jeez signal given, that cant be the future! Sometimes crypto teaches you to have a big heart, happy trading WO  Did they sell you that "crypto" at "k56"? I've got bad news for you. |
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Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin
This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges.
The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that.
*Above prices are taken from Deribit.
How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5. I posted a link earlier, here it is again. https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/The WO sometimes must be combed thoroughly, but it usually does deliver good info - be it bitcoin or digital cameras. Or you're just halftrolling and... username checks out? |
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The futures strategy is no risk because it is a perfect hedge. Easily done through CBOE and CME as well. If anyone has a bunch of fiat not doing anything that they want to generate a yield on, this is a great strategy.
Now 20% with no risks and a perfect hedge? ELI5 Mr. Hayes's blog is, as I said, an excellent source of technical info. The rope provided there might turn into a tool to hang oneself, or into a lifeline for conversion of excess corn/fiat into income without selling. The rule "no risk, no profit" remains solid IMHO. However, not all risks are equal, and being able to quantify risk is a precious, if difficult to acquire, skill. |
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Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin. We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips. I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.
Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy. Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc? Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion. Hm.... ... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada? |
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For anyone considering selling covered calls, just keep in mind this could be a very expensive decision
There is an outside chance that Bitcoin could go to crazy number this year. A $3.5k payment for giving away all the upside on a $200k sale in December 21 may not be a very good deal at all. It’s only a good deal if you are happy selling at $200k no matter what. Because the price could be $500k at that time. In that scenario, you just lost $296.5k in value.
Yes this is the risk, one has to remember you are doing this for the income and will forgo, if necessary capital gains. However, your example is not the best. Right now you could earn 3.5k on an option with strike price of 60k that expires in 2 weeks (5th March). Or, 3.2k an an option with strike price of 72k that expires in a little of 4 weeks (25th March). These 2 I mention also offer capital gains if the price expires over the strike price. I would only sell one month options at most. Options are still hard for me to grasp. As far as I understand the moment you try options, you are 'naked' buying and selling and that is very bad. How do you cover? Don't worry for them. They won't let you go naked. The options we're talking about are covered - which means you have to post btc collateral before being able to write them. |
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Soon 100,000,000 units won't be enough. When hard fork? Seriously, I think the time for a smaller minimum unit is approaching fast. Maybe a hard fork isn't technically needed, and two different "resolutions" can coexist for a while, but I hope that when 1 sat = 0.01$ happens, we're ready with further subdivisions. |
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Not if you include the completely ridiculous premium on gold rn. And good luck even finding a kilo of gold in stock, anywhere. I think it's perfectly fine to buy gold certificates with btc. Gold certificates are "as good as gold", amirite? /s Let's buy gold certificates with btc certificates. They send us paper gold, we send them a pretty email - a pdf file, even! - stating they own the btc. Of course, we keep the keys until we touch the yellow stuff. It's only fair. |
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Read the option thingy... But 5 million to be approved... This is a long long way for me.
As I understand it, 5 million for approval is only if you want to write options at different (not preset) strike prices. If you are OK with 25k, 50k, 75k etc, there's no need for approval as long as you post the collateral. |
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