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1701  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I made a mistake shorting BTC at 17k on: October 25, 2022, 01:13:29 PM
Now market is pumping like crazy,its obvious we won't go back to 18k or below.
Good luck to all, i hope you're smarter than me

I don't understand, did you actually short bitcoins or did you only sell all your coins? If you bought your coins in 2020 and sold them now you should have at least made a profit and have 0 exposure now. That's alright you are not losing any money when bitcoin rises again, but you are also not making any profit. In case you actually are short and have a negative exposure to bitcoins, I would recommend you cover your position immediately. It's not really realistic for bitcoins to fall in price. Your potential upside is very limited whereas your downsize is huge. I wouldn't take that risk. You sold almost at the 52 week low, which is never a good idea. Hope you learned from your mistake and will not repeat it. Good luck for your next trade.
1702  Economy / Economics / Re: Eu gas and electricity prices drop 80% to 2021 level, another apocalypse averted on: October 25, 2022, 07:43:33 AM
The gas market this year is going full crazy, I read yesterday the price even turned negative because there is no demand at the moment. The gas storages in Europe are full and there is not a lot of gas consumption, so the LNG ships are at the shores and need space to unload it. A lot of the demand for gas depends on the weather and this year is not normal so far, we had a very cold mid of September only to get warm temperature for the last 2.5 weeks in Europe. Most people are not using heating yet and as long as we have sunny, 20 degrees weather the gas storage will remain full. During summer most countries panic bought all the available gas to fill up storage. Some experts already predict a very mild winter which is going to put more pressure on the gas price. Looks like the bet of Putin to hope high gas prices will put politcial pressure on European countries to start buying Russian gas again failed. So far the world seems to survive without the cheap Russian gas. The only problem I see is that the lower gas price is not going to help the consumers, all of the gas suppliers increased their prices throughout 2022 and will not reduce prices again at the start of the winter. They will rather be happy about the additional profits and not give them to the consumers. Maybe the politcians are going to intervene here, but so far I don't see the inflation being brought down by this. Companies are quick to increase prices and very slow when it comes to lower prices again.
1703  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🕹️ Esports 🎮 Prediction & Discussion Thread on: October 25, 2022, 07:00:56 AM
A whole week without big CSGO matches is really boring, also the Dota 2 International games are mostly done. No games to watch or bets to place during the week. But I am already looking forward to Sunday Dota games. It's been a while since I placed bets on Dota matches, I usually just watch the summaries for fun and stay active. Team Secret looks really strong this year with their 3 new players. It's crazy how long Puppey's career in Dota is, he is so experienced and a very good captain. From Team Aster I was surprised that they beat PSG LGD 2-0, they could easily win now against Team Liquid. But the match after will be against either Tundra Esports or Team Secret, both of them look stronger. I think I will place a bet on Aster to win next game, and on Team Secret to win the Final. Team Secret lost against Tundra during the Dreamleague games, but that was with the old roaster and they look much stronger now. And in CSGO I am really looking forward to the BIG - Furia match on Monday, it's going to be a very close match and I hope BIG is going to pull through, it will be a nice payout. Also Vitality is playing against Imperial which is going to be a free win for Vitality.
1704  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: A disheartening true life winning story on: October 24, 2022, 11:30:38 AM
Can this guy win the case?
Has anyone experienced not being paid for their winning for real?
Why would they take your big money but refuses to pay big winning?
What could be done to curb this cheating permanently in gambling?

It's hard to say what his chances will be to win this case, without knowing the gambling laws in his country. With winnings of above 150,000 USD it makes sense to get an expert lawyer to take care of it. Since he was offered already two times money from the company his chances seem good. The lottery company know they are in the wrong and trying to get a cheap payout. It's good that he declined the payments avd I hope he is documenting everything properly. It shouldn't be an issue for him that the company lost the data for the winnings. If his lottery ticket shows the winning numbers and its legit than he deserves all the money. In my country the lottery company is partially owned by the state and there is no way that they could get out of paying out winnings. The winning numbers are broadcasted on TV and if you have the lottery winning slip with your name on it, its your money. Hopefully he gets all the money and doesn't except a partial payout.
1705  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do You Think Bitcoin Mining Will Be Banned Due to Fears of Climate Change? on: October 24, 2022, 11:07:24 AM
I think that not much is changing in the near future when it comes to mining and clean energy sources. There are only a few countries who banned crypto mining and right now the world is focusing on other things than climate change. When it comes to climate change politicians are only willing to invest money and time when the economy is in a boom. And right now we are facing recessions and rising inflation rates. Fossil energy sources are cheaper than alternative energy, so a country can only afford to a certain extend to go green. Maybe at the end of next year things will go back to normal again and the world will focus more on climate change. But right now the focus is to reduce gas as much as possible and increase nuclear energy. Also crypto mining became very popular in the last 2 years, I don't think politicians want to anger voters even more.
1706  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How much was your last big win? on: October 24, 2022, 10:48:41 AM
It's been a while since my last big win. I didn't gamble so much as usually this summer/autumn. A big win that comes to mind was a poker Sit'n'Go game 3 months ago where I won 120 USD. I felt great for a week after the win because it was such a hard game and it also took quite a long time to finish. When it comes to Slots, Dice or Roulette I usually bet smaller amounts and even after a good night I only make on average 30 USD. Every win is important and I am grateful for it, but larger winnings are much more satisfying. In BlackJack an Poker is the only two games where I spend more money and can get higher winnings. Except if I would win a jackpot in Slots, one day it has to happen.
1707  Economy / Economics / Re: Decentralised autonomous global government on: October 24, 2022, 08:29:10 AM
This sounds very interesting, but might be a bit uptopic at the current state of the world. I haven't come across any research on the topic so far. If there are some scientist working on it, I would expect it to be a very small field. The thing with global governments is that all countries need to agree on it and as long as the world is so divided there would be no consensus. It would make a lot of sense to have a government body that sits above all countries and can help in difficult tasks. Especially in crisis times like we had with the covid pandemic, it would have been completely different. If all countries work together to get the same vaccines, follow the same social distancing rules. We could have contained the virus much easier. Also having Apps that trace the people you come in contact with would have been much more effective globally. And still a global government seems not realistic at the moment. Politicians are so reluctant to give up power that I don't see any majority for it on a national level.
1708  Economy / Gambling / Re: Unpopular opinion about crypto gambling on: October 24, 2022, 06:55:31 AM
One of my favourite meme layouts, you can write anything you want on that white banner. At least you could have tried to match the font of the "change my mind" part so it looks a little bit more real.  Are you against using crypto currencies for gambling, or just against the fact that some online casinos require us to do KYC? Both is fine in my opinion. With cryptos it's very fast to deposit and withdraw money at casinos and if you are not a HODL investor then there is no reason to let your coins sit in your wallet without doing anything. Gambling is a nice way to try and make some income on the side while crypto prices are low. For me I am only using cryptos for gambling when we are far away from the next ATH like right now. And KYC became very common these days for gambling in online casinos. Crypto currencies still have a bad reputation among critics in the sense that they can be easily used to launder money. With KYC the casino are trying to prevent or at least increase the effort for criminals. I don't think there is anything wrong with using KYC as long as the casino stores our personal information safely. Change my mind  Cheesy
1709  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Faucet and Bonus Farming on: October 23, 2022, 07:20:39 AM
The casinos sets the rules of the game, and if a user is smarter enough to find a way to make profit with those rules then they shouldn't block users withdrawals.

So, what do you think about this?

I am not familiar with the 2 casinos where it happens and to me it seems more a problem of the casino rather than the gamblers. Faucets or free bonuses are part of many casinos these days. In Poker I have been using free Sit'n'Go tickets for many years now. It's a great tool for the casino to keep the gamblers engaged and help new customers to build up a decent bankroll overtime. The main idea behind these bonuses is that you use them on the casino itself and don't just withdraw them. As far as I know most of the casino don't even allow you to withdraw the money as it's blocked until you bet the amount at least 2-3 times. It's very similar to a deposit bonus which you need to activate over time, it's not that you can instantly withdraw all the money again that the casino gave you as a new customer. So if in this specific case a casino didn't design the bonuses properly and the gambler managed to withdraw the money straight away he should not be banned for that. Rather change the conditions of your promotions so customers can't abuse them anymore.
1710  Economy / Economics / Re: We are facing a new recession ten years after the previous one... on: October 23, 2022, 07:09:41 AM
Over the past years we had faced an economic growth considering that interest rates had started reaching lows and people had started spending money.
The last months, possibly during summer 2022 and some months after Putin's invasion to Ukraine we experience a new recession, almost ten years after the previous one.

Between 8 to 10 years has the been the normal time interval in which we are seeing a crisis now a days. If you look historical at the global data for the last 40 years you can see a lot of the crisis happening on average 8-10 years apart. In the 1980s you had the Savings and Loan Crisis in the United States where a lot of small banks had too many bad loans. Then in the 1990s you had the Asian debt crisis again affecting the global financial system and resulting in negative economic growth around the world. Then in the 2000s you had the DotCom bubble crushing Tech stocks globally again. In 2008 you had the subprime mortgage crisis and then recently you had European sovereign crisis, corona crisis and now the high inflation. It seems that recently we had more problems than in the past, this is likely due to the long period of time with low interest. For more than 10 years we have interest rates close to 0%, it was just a matter of time for inflation to pick up again.
1711  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do You Want KYC at Crypto Casinos During Registration? on: October 22, 2022, 07:54:05 AM
My question to the Bitcointalk community is this one: if it were up to you, would you keep the current status quo and have crypto casinos brand themselves as no KYC, only to ask for identity verification during withdrawal requests or big wins, or would you rather be required to complete KYC during the registration process and decide there and then whether you want to do that or not?

Please submit your votes in the poll, and share your thoughts below.

Quite surprised to see that 13% of the people here even voted for losing all their money instead of doing KYC at a casino. This might be the case if the winnings are really small, but would you really be willing to give away a few hundred Dollar only for not doing KYC? No way, it's already hard enough to make a profit in gambling that we shouldn't give away any money that we won. If someone is really against KYC and never wants to do it, than he should have researched before joining that casino. In my opinion the casino needs to protect itself against possible money laundering and KYC became very common in today's world. I kind of accepted it and don't feel bad about it anymore. Only asking for KYC during withdrawals of big wins seems like a good compromise, but I would prefer the casino just asks for all the information during signup. It makes the process longer and will prevent some customer from signing up or choosing against the casino, which is why most casinos are not doing it. In the long run however it makes the casino seem more trustworthy even if it hurts their business in the short run. As long as the casinos handles our personal data well and there are no security issues I have no problem with it.
1712  Local / Deutsch (German) / Re: Wie erkläre ich Verlust meiner Kryptos jemandem der keine Ahnung hat ($ zahle) on: October 22, 2022, 07:28:45 AM

Kann mir jemand hierbei helfen? Gibt es ggf. jemanden im deutsch sprachigen Raum, der so etwas wie ein Gutachten erstellen kann?


Die ganze Situation klingt sehr ärgerlich, aber wenn es nur um dein eigenes Geld geht sollte die Situation einfacher zu erklären sein. Du scheinst dich schon sehr gut mit Kryptos auszukennen, und so wie du es hier geschildert hast würde ich es auch dritten Personen erklären. Für jemanden der gar keine Ahnung hat würde ich es immer vergleichbar machen mit einem Safe der zu Hause steht, für den wir die Kombination verloren haben. Die Sachen im Safe sind noch da, nur wir kommen leider nicht mehr dran. Du schreibst, dass du die Recovery Phrase "entsorgt" hast. Gibt es eventuell noch Backups? Könntest du nach ein paar Monaten zufällig beim aufräumen die Unterlagen wiederfinden? Falls nein ist es sehr ärgerlich und solltest es auch so mitteilen, dass man an die Kryptos wohl nie wieder drankommt. Das mit einem Gutachten klingt als bräuchtest du etwas Juristisches, dass wird eher schwer und wird auch vor Gericht keinen Bestand haben. Sollte es doch um gute Freunde oder Familienangehörige gehen den du deine Situation erklären willst, könntest du auch auf ein paar Artikel im Internet verweisen, wenn sie sich mehr in die Materie einlesen wollen.
1713  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is it possible to calculate how much the price of BTC? on: October 22, 2022, 07:18:57 AM

How can I calculate the price potential of BTC within the next 1-10 years?

This is a very difficult question for which many investors would like to get an answer. Unfortunately there is no clear answer for your question. Potentially bitcoins has no upper price limit, the price could rise to 100,000 USD or 1m USD in the next 10 years. As long as there are investors willing to pay that price it's going to rise. The easiest calculation you could do would be to look how much the Bitcoin price increased in the last 10 years, and then use that number for a linear projection for the next 10 years. This is not so realistic of course because the price is trading so much higher now. It would be better to only look at the past few years instead and use the growth number after Bitcoin reached 10,000 USD. You can also only look at the halving process and take the price increase in the 6-12 months after the last 2 halvings and use that extrapolate for the next halving. In the end these predictions are not really accurate because it always comes down the general economic recession, if there is a recession or not going to happen again within the next 10 years.
1714  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: A Nigerian Man Won $51,000 in Sports Betting With a Bet of Just $1.072 on: October 22, 2022, 07:10:12 AM
If I am eager to share my success story, I prefer to do it online where no body knows me In person, like this forum, doing this offline with family, friends, colleagues, etc.. I think is too risky.

What is or are your opinion(s) on this matter?

Wow making 50x times returns in sport betting is massive, congratulations to him. With such kind of a profit I would also be careful telling friends and family about it, especially when living in a poorer country like Nigeria. Sharing your profits on social media only to see your video go viral and becoming a internet sensation is probably the worst thing I could do. You put a big target on your back and I am sure there will be some "childhood firends" calling the next day who haven't talked to you in 10 years. After making a lot of money it becomes hard to know who is your real friend and who is only around you because of your new wealth, and once the money is gone these people will also be gone. So far I haven't been in a situation where I got a huge win. If I am lucky and I make some profit, then I like to invite my friends for a beer, but I don't tell them how much I won. I remember my grandfather told our family once he won like 1000 Euro in the lottery 6 months ago, but he had already spend all the money so he cant give us anything  Cheesy Whenever I win something big, I would do the same or only tell my best friend about it. 
1715  Economy / Economics / Re: 76% of Adults are Making Lifestyle Changes to Prepare for a Potential Recession on: October 22, 2022, 07:04:49 AM
In addition, from a personal standpoint, investing in a cryptocurrency, especially bitcoin, acts as a buffer against the harsh realities of a recession.

Please share your personal experiences on how people in your country are preparing for or dealing with a recession.

I am not sure if more people are preparing for the economic recession or rather for the inflation. In my country we had close to 0% interest rates for more than 10 years and had no high inflation for almost 40 years. Most people don't even know about the risks high inflation can have on personal savings and living costs. That is why a lot of my friends had a bad awakening since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. With both food prices and energy prices rising sharply I think that everybody I know changed their spending habits this year. Most large purchases like a new car or renovating the house/apartment have been moved into 2023 or 2024. And with grocery shopping it became more important to look for promotions and buying in large bundles. We have a big supermarket that sells goods in large quantities for all the small restaurants. You need a special membership for it, but its free and easy to get. Before the crisis  nobody went there, and now almost everybody I know is now shopping there at least once a month.
1716  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Survey] Do you still play or stop the game? on: October 22, 2022, 06:08:33 AM
Funny enough I have learned this in the hard way.I usually like only Play n Go slot except a few times when I play other providers like Relax Gaming or No limit City.What I have learned from my experience of losing about 5400 USD from last December up until sometime ago when I decided to quit is that at this specific provider if you increase the bet 99% of the times you will go bust and only 1% it will result in you getting the bonus round or a big win to continue playing your favorite slot.I believe this to be the same with most other providers but I don't know,while for Play n Go I know it for sure as I have experienced it first hand.

Oh wow that's a big loss at one casino, it's good that you switched. If I were in your shoes I probably would have already switched casinos after losing 1,000-1,500 USD. Losing larger amounts or a lot of games in a row makes me cautious for depositing new money at the same casino, I would rather try my luck in the same game at a different casino. I know it's all probabilities and it doesn't really make sense to switch because it's the same probabilities of winning. But I am a little superstitious when it comes to gambling, same goes for winning or losing streaks. Some gambling sessions it's impossible to win, the longer I play the more I will lose, it's better to take a break and start fresh again. Especially if you feel like once you increase your bets you lose in 99% of the cases. The casino has an edge over us that will make them win in the long run. Before losing too much money I would always consider taking a break and save the rest of my bankroll for another day.
1717  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Throwback: Bitcoin was $64k today, a year ago. on: October 22, 2022, 05:50:43 AM

Well, just a reminder that it's been one year that has passed and there's going to be more to go and hopefully, we go back to that former price and even higher soon as we know a few years from now, halving is about to come.


Damn the year went by fast, I haven't thought about the high bitcoin price last year for a while. Crazy how the world changed completely in so little time. Honestly, who would have thought 2022 is going to look like that. It would be nice for bitcoins to rise to it's old ATH again, but that is not realistic at the moment. The global economic situation have completely changed, more and more sanctions are being issued, the inflation is destroying wealth rapidly and the prognose for next year is not really better. Right now investors are very cautious and afraid to buy risky assets like crypto currencies or stocks. The world needs to normalise again until we see higher bitcoin prices. It's still nice to dream and remember how good we had it in 2021.

1718  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Two Gambling Stories on: October 22, 2022, 05:39:08 AM

First, in your opinion, what would be a reasonable amount to give his girlfriend? Second, assuming you were the apprentice in the story, would you abandon your training or would you have given in to the pressure to split the money with your boss?


Story 1 is a though one, if she was our wife she would be entitled to 50% of the money. But as our girlfriend I am not sure howuch she can claim. If I was in that situation I would check it with a lawyer to make sure I am not making any mistake with the law. It was her money, but he returned it and he was the one taking the risk. In case he lost the bet he would still need to return the money. Also it depends on how long are you dating, is she the love of your life and do you want to get married? There could be a compromise, like you use half of the money to only buy things together, get married and share a life together.
Story 2 seems really unfair, if you gamble with your own money why should you be forced to share it with your boss? There is no way I would have give any money to my boss. And a 50:50 split is ridiculous, rather I would quit and look for a new job. With my large winnings I would also have enough pocket money to relax until I find a new job. When it comes to money friendship stops, and a boss is even below my friends. I would be more comfortable to share my money with my girlfriend than with my boss. This makes me a bit angry, I really feel bad for the guy.
1719  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bear Market More Important Than the Bull Market? on: October 22, 2022, 05:32:19 AM
Yes I do think bear markets are more important than bull markets. There are a few benefits a bear markets gives us which we can't get during bull markets. The biggest advantage we have when the market is down is that it's the best opportunity to reinvest money and buy more coins. I am sure many investors at the end of 2021 were reluctant to buy more bitcoins. When prices are trading near ATHs we should not be buying. To really buy low we need a bear market, bull markets are for taking profits. Identifying the cycles in an asset is important for traders who are using technicals indicators and trends. Being in a bear market also means that the next bull market is around a corner. Another important aspect in investing is that it's much easier to lose money than to make money, avoiding bear markets can save us a lot if money. I would rather save all my money without making a profit, then having a chance to make 10% but lose half my money in half the cases because of a bear market. Preserving capital is more important than getting the highest return in my opinion.
1720  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Will you be influenced by your favourite celebrity? on: October 19, 2022, 07:48:26 AM
One should know what's right from left, good or bad advantage and disadvantages and should not let what people say or do control you.
I know this will be all about Drake also know as Champagne papi who lost the bet as a result of Barcelona failing to win that game.
What he does can't move me at all as a gambler one should be focused on what gives him money at all cost.
That have had to do with a little agresion into the game next

It's true we shouldn't let other people take advantage of us and follow their lead blindly. The first question that comes to mind when I see more and more celebrities post their gambling slips online, if they are being paid for it. It could always be a marketing campaign by the casino or bookmaker to promote their company. Millions of people are following the celebrities on social media and might be convinced to do it themselves. With Drake we already know he likes to gamble and posts his bets regularly and of course it fits to his lifestyle of being a rapper. Another thing is these huge betting slips look cool, but we always need to bring them in relation to their total networth. For any normal person these are insane sums, for a celebrity it's only pocket money. That is also why we shouldn't be betting large sums of our money only to follow a celebrity on twitter. They are probably not so heavily invested like us in the bet and don't feel bad if they lose their bet, whereas for us it could ruin everything. Also celebrities might not have any additional information and their bet is probably based on gut feelings, so they don't give us an edge for making a quick profit.
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