See, this what you continue to repeat (and imply), but you have not proven it at all.

"Growth potential" as you called it ≠ the guarantee of massive demand in the future.

And the "hard math" based on difficulty -- no possibility that bitcoin simply becomes unprofitable to mine?

Yeah, and perhaps onecoin truly is the most expensive coin ever.  

Scarcity principle doesn't apply without the proper demand.

Liberty reserve was always the shadiest of the shady. The VERY shadiest. INCREDIBLY EASY to move money anonymously and frankly, prime pickings for this. At some point, I become less able to sympathize with people who trust their money to those they don't research. If one stopped to look at how money moves through LR, it was clear to see that it was built for laundering money. If one is cool with that -- fine -- if not... probably should have done some sniffing around.

Nice one....

so much exuberance itt 

You can lose all your money, but no one defaults on Ripple! 

Any evidence that China Telecom (or whoever is pertinent) has actually taken such a position?

Not sure about that. Care to respond to my post?

Received. Thanks for running this! 

Perhaps if the utility of bitcoin were in the same universe as the utility of the dollar. Your theory only works if the basis for demand remains -- a huge assumption.

This is what you have not proven: If bitcoin enters the black market, legally viable alternatives will not take its place.

Current demand IMO is based mostly on speculation in re to store of value -- not bitcoin's use as currency. There is little demand for bitcoin as an actual currency/payment system – people don’t need it. If shit goes south, there are plenty of legal alternatives. And IMO, the average person – who bitcoin needs for mass adoption – is happy to use Paypal, credit cards, bank transfer, etc. without getting their hands involved in anything legally dubious. What will happen to bitcoin's perceived use as currency if it becomes particularly difficult to obtain fiat currency with it? It's starting to sound like the Peso! Will people be paying premiums to offload their bitcoin? 

In the case of a US government crackdown, would you expect speculators to stick around? If so, why? And in such a case, what happens to all the VC capital that perma-bulls keep going on about? Successful VCs love to invest in legally questionable ventures, don't they? Yes, any type of government crackdown on bitcoin is going to create a frenzy of investment!

Oh, drugs. Let's talk about drugs. Do you really think bitcoin could compare with illegal drugs in terms of demand?

For reference, in 1906, 25 million people were using opium (1.5% of the world population). According to the US Opium Commissioner, in 1911, US residents consumed 500,000 pounds of opium, or ~1 pound per 180 people. As for cocaine, in 1906, the US imported 2.86 million pounds of coca leaf, in addition to "large quantities" of manufactured cocaine.

Compare to size of bitcoin economy. Do you think there is 1 million bitcoin users, which would put bitcoin users at 0.014% of the world population? Give or take a couple 100,000 or so? And of those bitcoin users, how many are merely speculators, who will simply leave bitcoin during a prolonged downslide (or at the outset of panic) for other investments? Regardless, doesn't your scenario require mass adoption? Massive demand which currently does not exist?

Bittorrent? The decentralization that you speak of ... what would happen if Gox, Bitstamp, Bitpay, Satoshi Dice were to go down? (the latter won't be safe simply by ceasing to serve US residents going forward) ... and what would merchants do when they see bitcoin operators being picked off by the government?

Anyway, yada yada yada, more devil's advocate shit. But really this idealism is crazy! A lot of what I see here can only be described as pure faith ... at least be open to the possibility that our beloved bitcoin may fall on very hard times someday.

Oh, and regarding the last point of the OP, there is always the possibility that short/medium term outlook ≠ long term outlook. Or that one's outlook contains caveats that account for such things. Some of us think shit may hit the fan in the future. That doesn't mean I'm selling now.

wat 

:facepalm:

Can you bring this sort of crap over to the bitcoin discussion forum or alternative crypto...or something? If you're going to get on a soapbox here, make it about why your speculative analysis is right... not why we should "believe in bitcoin."

Yes please change thread name to "how to lose $60"

"Bypass any ruling against Mutum Sigillum"? How does that work?

They can't "close" it in the sense of say, a suspended corporation. But this really boils down to how well Mt Gox is managed in the case that more accounts are targeted. The feds have jurisdiction over US accounts and can obtain jurisdiction over many foreign accounts (e.g. in Japan). Hence, liquidity becomes king. IMO, this isn't about whether the feds can close Gox, it's about how badly it can bleed it from the inside out. If they continue to serve the US market in the face of, say, an increasingly threatening situation from the US government, they better get smart about where they hold funds and how they batch cashouts.

Word sweet name bro

This stuff doesn't happen in a bubble. A little good press doesn't cancel out all other indicators.

Eh, not necessarily. Country-code TLD appears shitty and untrustworthy to many unfamiliar with the situation IMO.

I have to think that Gox has planned for some contingencies.... it's just a mystery which ones!

Gox would just instantly establish itself on another domain that could not be seized by the US. If ownership is not stupid, they are already ready for that.

If 125 falls and we keep on this volume.... me turn bull

The 10k bidwall turned into 3k and we had like a 7k buy. It was instantaneous, so...