... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?
Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon. Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t
I just have my side to be on…..
Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)
I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC). Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold? But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ? So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do? I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision. About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/That's all dandy IF there are no cap gains. In US this strategy cannot work well as long as you are in the higher bracket. |
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Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.
I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.
So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?
Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.
The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:
[00.50]above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds
[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million - most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds
[07.25]$600k to $800k - 2nd most bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds
[15.00]$300k to $600k - Moderately highly bullish - about 7.25% odds
[27.50]$100k to $300k - normal range bullish - about 12.5% odds
[40.50]$65k to $100k - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top - about 13% odds
[55.00]$55k to $65k - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 14.5% odds
[73.00]$current price to $55k - relatively bearish - about 18% odds
-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible - about 28% odds
I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.
72.5% UP [edited to correct the above bold mistakes] 28% DOWN If you're gonna be a pansy fuck and create a new account just to correct somebody's math, at least be correct about your corrections. hey, don't be a panzy (panzy fuck) [or panzy fuck panzy], bro, and argue about %%. Believe me, JJG can take it..and much more. he/it is not destructible, just like Bender. |
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Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.
I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.
So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?
Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.
The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:
[00.50]above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds
[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million - most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds
[07.25]$600k to $800k - 2nd most bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds
[15.00]$300k to $600k - Moderately highly bullish - about 7.25% odds
[27.50]$100k to $300k - normal range bullish - about 12.5% odds
[40.50]$65k to $100k - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top - about 13% odds
[55.00]$55k to $65k - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 14.5% odds
[73.00]$current price to $55k - relatively bearish - about 18% odds
-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible - about 28% odds
I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.
73% UP 28% DOWN That (above) is just an opinion, which are 'a dime a dozen' worth. This is not a calculation of any sort, but simply a guess. Still, better than before. |
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@Raja espouses the same views as the hex scammer, not going to mention the name (similarity of opinion is probably just a coincidence).
That view is that the cycle peak was 64K (very little and premature peak, I know), then the bottom would be at 200Wk MA.
Woonomic is of the opinion that the peak will be in 2022 and that btc is currently in the process of shaking off 4-year cycles.
Whether this would happen or not, I don't know. Maybe 50:50.
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People overall have difficulty in projecting exponential price trends, therefore 1-5 and 10mil price prediction seems outrageous even 10 years out even though just 50%/year appreciation for btc (1/4 of prior average) would result in approx $2.6 mil/btc in 10 years, which is quite doable.
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OT: a strange thunderstorm yesterday in H-town. Lightning mostly at a very sharp angle, instead of usual where most lightning is typically close to the right angle.
Lost power for a while, but then some strange electrical event occurred.
Some bulbs, especially those that are 'new' (economical) type started glowing in red (not white or yellow) and several electrical outlets (I assume those with fuses) started a slight buzz (which I recorded) for a good 15-20 min, then stopped.
I am not an electrician, but what could have caused it? Some residual charge in the air? It was very weird, never seen/heard anything like that.
sideways lightning, bulbs glowing red, outlets 'buzzing', I don't know of any natural electrical thunderstorm phenomena that can produce those kind of effects ... that sounds well, unbelievable, have you considered alien activity in the area? Or some other kind of radiation, increased solar proton flux? What latitude are you at? here is the weird 'induced" light..it was not flickering, steady. [snip] normal light from the same lamp for comparison [snip] Latitude-About 30oN. I think I have an explanation for you, but I have to run now, Ill post it later. But here's a hint. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvQ9H9K7XeMAfter returning home and reading through other answers to your question I think it has been answered already so I'll just make it short. Sideways lightning is not at all unheard of, this creates (low voltage) "electricity in the air" this "electricity" or electromagnetic radiation can be picked up by some electric equipment like for example luminous bulbs and/or power lines and make things go weird in your home. The red bulb is read because of low voltage. Aliens not involved. Fun facts Farmers sometimes place luminous tubes next to electric fencing to check if it works, when there's a power pulse the tube lights up. A farmer in Sweden some years ago put a roll of barbed wire under a high voltage power line and ran two wires to his barn, he used this electricity to power his barn and garage. Unfortunately for him the power company sent a crew out to trim the growth under the wires, and they found the roll of barbed wire, followed the wires to the barn, and he was busted and charged with electricity theft. Thanks, it all makes sense. |
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nice...I thought nipples are not allowed here, lol. Really? Oh.... More seriously, if so I'll replace it. Just seemed apt at the moment. Edit: Replaced with a different kind of porn.  your doggie? very nice. dog thinking..."why she is touching my tail"? |
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here is the weird 'induced" light..it was not flickering, steady.  Halogen? Was this during the power outage? It looks like you were getting some low voltage through your home circuits. right, but what was the source? I think @MofA gave one plausible suggestion, maybe you have another? |
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OT: a strange thunderstorm yesterday in H-town. Lightning mostly at a very sharp angle, instead of usual where most lightning is typically close to the right angle.
Lost power for a while, but then some strange electrical event occurred.
Some bulbs, especially those that are 'new' (economical) type started glowing in red (not white or yellow) and several electrical outlets (I assume those with fuses) started a slight buzz (which I recorded) for a good 15-20 min, then stopped.
I am not an electrician, but what could have caused it? Some residual charge in the air? It was very weird, never seen/heard anything like that.
sideways lightning, bulbs glowing red, outlets 'buzzing', I don't know of any natural electrical thunderstorm phenomena that can produce those kind of effects ... that sounds well, unbelievable, have you considered alien activity in the area? Or some other kind of radiation, increased solar proton flux? What latitude are you at? here is the weird 'induced" light..it was not flickering, steady. normal light from the same lamp for comparison  Latitude-About 30oN. ... I think that looks like a halogen bulb, it could well have a reddish emission spectrum for low voltages (DC current). The sideways lightning can sometimes occur ahead of a thunderstorm as the lightning arcs out from the anvil top ahead of the storm into the dry air area ahead, these are known as 'bolts from the blue' and can be very powerful due to the large heights and associated voltage potentials they jump across ... I'm leaning more towards just some v. powerful lightning (as in high voltage) raising the ground potential significantly around your house ... rather than alien activity ... when this happens the local ground can temporarily be at a higher voltage than the 'live' high voltage line of the grid and weird shit begins happening as it drains currents into the grid a very solid explanation for both low angle lightning and the induced "red light". |
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^^^ means US$ is toast as world reserve currency, probably got less than 5 years left now, maybe just a couple
Empires die slowly at first, then all at once. Plan accordingly.
I disagree, but only somewhat. There are uncanny parallels with Rome, though. ~450-470 years of the Republic, followed by ~450-500 years of the Empire: ~200 years of imperial ascendancy and 250-300 years of decline. Some might argue that US became kind of like a "limited' empire somewhere after WWII. We had maybe 1776-1945 (169 years) of the republic and 76 years as a 'limited' empire. Roman empire started to decline at approx 50% of time spent as a republic and declined for almost as long. If drawing direct analogies, US might start to decline about now (maybe Afganistan is a marker of sorts) and continue for another 70-80 years. Not 5 or a couple! I expect the process to be slow, and i would welcome it to be slow because we all know what happened after Rome collapsed: 900-1000 years of 'dark ages'. US projection of military power (world's policeman) may not be called an Empire, but only in name. By the facts on the ground are that they had the most overseas military bases and troops on foreign soil than any other empire in history. As a willing partner in many UN shenanigans, it became a strange amalgam of corporate America protecting it's interests especially the petrodollar and a tool of the global elite to rape and pillage countries all over the globe "spreading democracy" or righting perceived wrongs from some despot or another. It is an Empire, an Empire by stealth maybe but never-the-less it has all the essential hallmarks of an Empire. The collapse of the US$ Empire has been set in motion by the operation on Sept. 11 2001, days before release of an Inspector General's report from an audit of the Pentagon revealing missing funds in the trillions. 2001 dollars. The Pentagon has never passed an audit since. In 20 years, there was never any verifiable evidence found in Afghanistan Taliban caves in linking anybody in Afghanistan to the sophisticated Sept. 11 attacks that levelled 3 immense skyscrapers in a morning and coordinated attacks in 3 geographical locations inside the USA. Osama bin Laden was supposedly found and killed in Pakistan but always claimed he never had anything to do with Sept. 11. Sept. 11 is the only terrorist act that nobody has claimed responsibility for, terrorists operate on publicising their acts/causes not covert operations. The entire US military operation Afghanistan operation was surrounded by lies, misinformation, misdirection and infathomable wasteful spending from the highest offices of US govt. and tragic loss of life on the ground. At it's peak the US military had over 100,000 troops on the ground there. Afghanistan is where Empires go to die. The looting of the Empire by Washington insiders and connected contracting organisations has been going on for over 20 years already, probably from the time of Iraq 1 and the Bush 1 Presidency. The dollar emissions curve is going exponential. There is no way it lasts another 5 years, let alone 20 years. USSR collapsed 2 years after being beaten and pulling out of Afghanistan. It was another "no one" saw it coming. I see the collapse of the USA as a global Empire coming. it remains to be seen, but Britain was defeated in the first Afganistan war 1838-1842 with very heavy losses, victorious in the second (1878-1880), then lost again in the third in 1919, but losses were quite small in this one. The final result was independence. British empire collapsed 113 years after the first defeat, but the history shows that they were drawn to Afganistan a few times. I wonder what it means in the current situation. |
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OT: a strange thunderstorm yesterday in H-town. Lightning mostly at a very sharp angle, instead of usual where most lightning is typically close to the right angle.
Lost power for a while, but then some strange electrical event occurred.
Some bulbs, especially those that are 'new' (economical) type started glowing in red (not white or yellow) and several electrical outlets (I assume those with fuses) started a slight buzz (which I recorded) for a good 15-20 min, then stopped.
I am not an electrician, but what could have caused it? Some residual charge in the air? It was very weird, never seen/heard anything like that.
sideways lightning, bulbs glowing red, outlets 'buzzing', I don't know of any natural electrical thunderstorm phenomena that can produce those kind of effects ... that sounds well, unbelievable, have you considered alien activity in the area? Or some other kind of radiation, increased solar proton flux? What latitude are you at? here is the weird 'induced" light..it was not flickering, steady. normal light from the same lamp for comparison Latitude-About 30oN. |
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funny thing...'aristocrates' are buying solana..always going for a hot s-t saying that it is 'better". luls
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nice...I thought nipples are not allowed here, lol. |
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OT: a strange thunderstorm yesterday in H-town. Lightning mostly at a very sharp angle, instead of usual where most lightning is typically close to the right angle.
Lost power for a while, but then some strange electrical event occurred.
Some bulbs, especially those that are 'new' (economical) type started glowing in red (not white or yellow) and several electrical outlets (I assume those with fuses) started a slight buzz (which I recorded) for a good 15-20 min, then stopped.
I am not an electrician, but what could have caused it? Some residual charge in the air? It was very weird, never seen/heard anything like that.
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 Look at me, we are the Captains now Well yeah.... No 2 bit opium poppy farmer is gonna fuck with dudes who still live in the dark ages, pray to Allah 5 times a day and sport those funny hats, full beards, and flash full clips and AK's..... ... hahaha that's hilarious! assuming you are american you see no irony in claiming "sour grapes" after getting booted out unceremoniously from a barren mountainous desert after spending ~$2 trillion total, $88 billion arming and training the local military that imploded in less than a month and cost thousands of lives https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-business-afghanistan-43d8f53b35e80ec18c130cd683e1a38fTHE LONGEST WAR:
Percentage of U.S. population born since the 2001 attacks plotted by al-Qaida leaders who were sheltering in Afghanistan: Roughly one out of every four.
THE HUMAN COST:
American service members killed in Afghanistan through April: 2,448.
U.S. contractors: 3,846.
Afghan national military and police: 66,000.
Other allied service members, including from other NATO member states: 1,144.
Afghan civilians: 47,245.
Taliban and other opposition fighters: 51,191.
Aid workers: 444.
Journalists: 72.
Estimated amount of direct Afghanistan and Iraq war costs that the United States has debt-financed as of 2020: $2 trillion.
Estimated interest costs by 2050: Up to $6.5 trillion.
THE WARS END. THE COSTS DON’T:
Amount Bilmes estimates the United States has committed to pay in health care, disability, burial and other costs for roughly 4 million Afghanistan and Iraq veterans: more than $2 trillion.
Period those costs will peak: after 2048. ... it took 20 years to decide it wasn't worth 'fucking with' them??? huh? US population got screwed big time by Military-Industrial-Complex ... and got the Patriot Act gem and Stasi-like surveillance state intelligence apparatus to keep them in line as a nice side bonus I wrote big ass reply, some in agreement to your response and many counter argument, including so called fake ass western theory. then i thought its completely useless in this forum because no-one would understand it and judging from your reply i get the feeling that we have virtually no geo- politics readers or specialist here so i retracted it. since this is a future 'historical' forum, one HAS to post their 'big ass replies', otherwise future historians would think that our 'friendly bot' and its/his partner in 'letters' are the only two bitcoin-talkers who existed. |
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I disagree, but only somewhat.
There are uncanny parallels with Rome, though.
~450-470 years of the Republic, followed by ~450-500 year of the Empire: ~200 years of imperial ascendancy and 250-300 years of decline.
Not looking forward to a collapse: I really hate being a warlord and leather chaps+helmet can chafe. Ditto. |
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^^^ means US$ is toast as world reserve currency, probably got less than 5 years left now, maybe just a couple
Empires die slowly at first, then all at once. Plan accordingly.
I disagree, but only somewhat. There are uncanny parallels with Rome, though. ~450-470 years of the Republic, followed by ~450-500 years of the Empire: ~200 years of imperial ascendancy and 250-300 years of decline. Some might argue that US became kind of like a "limited' empire somewhere after WWII. We had maybe 1776-1945 (169 years) of the republic and 76 years as a 'limited' empire. Roman empire started to decline at approx 50% of time spent as a republic and declined for almost as long. If drawing direct analogies, US might start to decline about now (maybe Afganistan is a marker of sorts) and continue for another 70-80 years. Not 5 or a couple! I expect the process to be slow, and i would welcome it to be slow because we all know what happened after Rome collapsed: 900-1000 years of 'dark ages'. EDIT: BTw, here is a very important opinion piece (about bitcoin, laws, innovation, etc) from Niall Ferguson, which many conservatives and even moderates listen to: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-15/niall-ferguson-nixon-the-gold-standard-and-a-bitcoin-bonanzaIf we have learned nothing else from the past half-century, it is surely that the best way to win a race with totalitarian rivals is not to copy them, but to out-innovate them. Make the wrong decision at this historic turning point, and we shall be interrupting a much bigger bonanza than Nixon did. |
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This is probably from ATH, right? There was a youtube video of a Ben Cowen and PlanB meetup where they discussed it. TL;DR: planB is skeptical of lengthening and diminishing cycles if you present an unbiased data (not from ATH or lows, but as a whole). BC was a bit annoyed by this, but the meet was very polite, regardless. The thing is superlong (90min), so maybe OK to watch at 1.5-2X speed and in the background  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWXnUc8IMLs |
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If bitcoin keeps rolling like it has than a 3% increase in CG (15% of 20%) isn't going to mean dick for me. That's like stepping on a penny.
dude, where are you getting these numbers? ....they are talking about going from 20% to 39.6% or rather from 23.8% max to 43.4% max (that's a 82% increase) before state's taxes if you have any. You are saying that paying about 50% in taxes on your cap gains means nothing? I had paid it before ('cause i had large short term cap gains way back when in pre-btc era) and it was quite painful. 15% increase to the current 20% is 3% overall. Going to 39.6 is a different story. I doubt that will pass. Edit: Damn, living on a mere million a year will suck horribly. Hm, divorce the wife split the bitcoin and we can do 2m. Still, I have no idea how we will live on that..... Still won't pass. Well, I get your irony, but to straighten the facts even further...it is 1mil if you don't divorce, half (0.5mil) if you do. If one to limit themselves to 400-500K/year-that's a VERY good living, but you ain't buying a respectable lake or a ranch with this kind of money IF you pay cash. I agree with Elwar, though, the easiest path would be to wait a little (2-5 years) and then simply borrow against btc. No cap gains ensue. |
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