Rewind one year and $6000 seemed like moon.
Just don't rewind 6 months ago. Make sure to cherry pick the right timeline. Don't get scared until sub $3000.
$3000 is nonsense. Pass it on. It is even more optimistic to rewind 18 months (to $1000), and the uptrend is still showing as very strong. In fact take any price point more than 10 months ago. My point is that the price can come back to sub $3000 without breaking the long term uptrend. Looking back to the peak price is too discouraging. |
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That's a bad one if this ended up being a scam. What project can one trust again? This is not just affecting the investors but also hurting the crypto ecosystem in general. I do hope in the near future we find ways to curb such things from happening. What assurance will an investor have that Ethereum won't turn out this bad one day? We need a stringer system of insurance of investors funds being put into crypto, if not mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies and the blockchain solutions they bring is a long shot away
There is no guarantee in any crypto. Any project could fail ultimately , for many reasons (although probably not all crypto, just any) |
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With these super low prices we may need to shut down the blockchain.
Fortunately they released Satoshi's alert key.
Time to trigger the shutdown switch? Or might things turn around?
I'm scared.
Help.
Relax. The prices are still good. Rewind one year and $6000 seemed like moon. Charts mean little, because they can be interpreted any way you wish. I can feel the replay of 2014-15 in all the emotions, remembering clearly the daily twists and turns, and it is tracking closely. Don't get scared until sub $3000. The bounce will be good, it just isn't near yet. Alternatively don't watch for a year or so, it will be easier on your stress levels. |
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I just noticed the poll is outdated. I guess everyone is too depressed to care.  I guessed 7k-7.5k, not bad. No depression round here, just waiting for the ball to stop bouncing and find a decisive bottom. (or have we?) I think we haven't seen bottom yet but I'd be pleasantly surprised if we never see 5k again. It's a long game. My own best guess is the bottom comes in at $3k in 2019, but I would also be pleasantly surprised if it is higher. I notice my own reactions this year are the same as in 2014, and I followed that far too closely. By the time the bear market was over, many alts were down 99%, and BTC was a strong relative performer at -80%. Of course I hope that each rally will be the beginning of the new uptrend, but hope and reality don't often match. |
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I notice that Game continues its relentless slide down the ranks of CoinMarketCap. Now placed at 163 rd. Was 80th around 6 months ago.
I know that short term price fluctuations are not important, but this type of trend is a negative indicator of the projects progress.
Any good explanations for this trend ? (it started well before the fork issues)
Now down to rank 307. A bad sign : extreme relative weakness in an already weak market. |
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Odds seem against three years, and odds seem against 3 months, too, but seems that each are within a similar probabilities range.
Absolutely... 3 months to 3 years is a wide range: just a bell curve of probabilty . So maybe from what seems really hard to forecast, and those range defining guesses, we can estimate a period of ~18 months between 5k and 10k ? Can you live with that ? I am guessing that most ppl find it difficult to accept, and they might be at risk of overtrading through boredom. |
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Good morning Bitcoinland. I see we had a bit of a dip, all the way down to where we were over a week ago...$6393USD/$8390CAD (Bitcoinaverage). Why does this always seem (lately) to happen when I'm short on cash to buy more coins? I can't bitch though. It's only money and I'm not impoverished quite yet. maybe it doesn't go down to 3xxx levels after all  That 3xxx nonsense is just wishful thinking by people who missed the boat (or panic sold at the bottom) and desperately want the price to go down. That 3xxx nonsense is something that you just can't dismiss outright. Sure we all want the price to go over the moon. Possibly even higher. But there's no denying we're in a strong bear market right now. There's every chance that it will go down. Given 2014/15, there is a historical precedent. I just hope if we are going that low, it's faster this time - grinding down and only hitting bottom in early 2019 would be tough. Sooner, please. Agreed. A sharp move down ( hopefully in the next couple of months) would be a good way to end this bear market. If it's sharp enough, I think it might bottom at 3.5-4k, but as you say, it's the slow grind down that is going to be worse, and get lower. In stock trading parlance, we are on the 'slope of hope'. It can be a long one. |
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Against the backdrop of all the other alts, GAME holds its positions very well, of course, it fell well, too, but some positions in my portfolio made -200% and even -300%, and this pleases me as the holder of this coin
Actually, no. Game has fallen from place 80 to place 120 in the last 4 months. Although the price is down 92% from ATH (which is bad in itself), the worst sign is the collapse down the rankings, at place 211 now. Game is relatively very weak against other alts, and in any other security, stock, commodity, that is a strong sell signal. The real development going on right now is positive for the longer term, but the speculation of the last year or so needs damping down. Hopefully a fall to 20c or so might do it. Then a firm base can be built. |
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the trend is down until it isn't
Spoken wisely The wisdom in that simple statement is profound. To translate a little of it ' Nearly all TA is just a lot of hot air, but it helps to pass the time while waiting for the trend to turn' |
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On this comparison, either the low is coming sooner, which is good for the long term, or we are imminent for a strong multi-month rally (maybe to ~$9k) followed by new lows below $4k. Unless the decline is greater, which seems unlikely. The comparison may not be valid, but it is one way of looking at the trend. |
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The chain is dead. Don't worry about staking. The stake will not confirm.
Dead, what did you mean, Majormax? Has the BitcoinDark been abandoned yet? That is what I guess when seeing your word 'dead' The coin was swapped for Komodo. There is almost nothing left in wallets to drive the network. The exchange coins are only virtual. |
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There will be a slowly dwindling market for a long time. There will always be ppl who come across the name, and are too lazy to check it out properly. |
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does anybody know the details on how staking works? I heard 5%, but is that awarded each block? 5% of current coins per year divided by blocks per year? just want to understand the basics  The chain is dead. Don't worry about staking. The stake will not confirm. |
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^ What is that arbitrary yellow line on the bottom.
This correction will not be like 2013 or 2014. Why? Because it's 2018. The rise was different, the correction will be different too. Its easy to try to trace and outline the future using the past, but its just an exercise for fun. Its relatively useless. My best guess is this correction will be a somewhere in the middle of the two based on severity (%) dip, but will last longer than both. But even if my best guess is wrong, I will be right about one thing - this correction will be its own animal. Good logic. Feels about right to me. The bad news is the length of time of the correction : The good news is that most of the price fall from ATH has already happened. If we holdled in a 13k price fall, then another ~3k is easy, no ? ( or 2k or 4k , meh) |
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[ I don't think it will get that low myself, but can certainly see $2k-2.5k being very possible. The number of traders, hopers and buyers on the way down will limit the pace of the decline, so plenty of time to get out now, and plenty of time to get back in. I wouldn't wait for $2k, because that might be very brief, but buying back at $3k gives some opportunity for profit on a 1-2 year view.
Personally, I'm not brave enough to short it, because nothing is certain.]
I agree with what you are writing here, except for your seeming attempt to get peeps to sell now (persuade? or protect? of course, you would assert that you are attempting to "protect" poor little naive BTC HODLers) and asserting that there is "plenty of time to get back in."
Well, yes I suppose that might be right: not quite sure what you are looking for there. Protecting people from their own folly is a fools errand. Using a bit of introspection, I guess what I mean to say is : ' OK, I think it is probably going to 3k or less... You can sell if you like, but I am not going to, because 1. Bull trend will probably resume in 2 years or less. 2. Having got out it is harder to get back in. 3. The profit of getting it right is too low compared with the high cost of getting it wrong. ' |
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Dead and price is still 50$? Volume (24h) $212,817 USD. It's looks way better than dead, so what happening here? The virtual coin is circulating round the exchange, going back and forth to speculators. It is like an Exchange trading token. It can keep doing that because most buyers of crypto are too lazy to do proper research. |
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There was a 94% decline in 2011. So we may still fall to around $1000.
yup started mining btc in 2011 when it was like $5 USD. watched it go to around $35 USD. then drop for a long time to around $2.50 USD. then back up. then back down. then back up. then... rode it out then, ill ride it out now. moon or bust i figure. anything in between is for cowards. Understood. The decline in 2014-15 was only 80%. I know many hodlers from 2011 sold huge amounts at $200 in 2013. $1000 seemed like moon to them then, and would be a healthy correction now. I don't think it will get that low myself, but can certainly see $2k-2.5k being very possible. The number of traders, hopers and buyers on the way down will limit the pace of the decline, so plenty of time to get out now, and plenty of time to get back in. I wouldn't wait for $2k, because that might be very brief, but buying back at $3k gives some opportunity for profit on a 1-2 year view. Personally, I'm not brave enough to short it, because nothing is certain. |
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2 years like this means BYE BYE BTC
Why ? |
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This shit is headed towards 4k and possibly under $3k.
Next 2 years will be very painful.
We have all done it before and we can all do it again. Yep. Thats right. The 2-3 year bear market was set up by December's extraordinary peak (could have topped out at 6-8k by my own estimates, but the CME futures news shot it to the moon). The grind down is needed to wash out the extreme speculation... Before a new uptrend is truly in place, the last 6-9 months' wild speculative buyers need to be whittled down to true hodlers, unaffected by the price moves. That could take take 2 years and $2.5k price in my stupid-assed opinion. Hope I'm wrong. |
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By the end of July we shall see price above $10k.
Not going to happen. Just as likely to see price at 2k. Random move, 4k up or 4k down. No analysis. That is not how it works. We use log scale not linear scale. A probability of the price being 5/3 as high as it is now is supposed to be as probable as a fall to 3/5 of what it is now. So a rise to ~10k should be equivalent to a fall to ~3600, not 2K. Thanks .... I stand corrected. Principle is similar. 3600 is as unlikely as 10k . Here's another bit of dumb-ass maths: 80% probability that a trading range of 5k to 7k holds until end July. These figures are merely based on the historical volatilty extrapolated into the future, but they work well in all markets, regardless of how exotic the instrument. Of course the 20% probabilty happens 1 time in 5. The only reason I quote them is to shine a little realism onto wilder predictions. I really have no idea where price is going in the next 2 months. |
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