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901  Local / Polski / Re: Polish Hyde Park on: March 25, 2020, 08:36:24 PM
Słyszy się o sytuacjach, że komuś grozi mandat, ale nie czytałem dotychczas o żadnym przypadku, żeby komuś takiej wysokości mandat dali.

No i to sąd nakłada, w praktyce większość obstawiam będzie max. 500-1000 zł + koszty sądowe.
902  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: March 25, 2020, 08:07:47 PM
Oczywiście wszyscy straszą, że to dopiero początek, a jak patrze na wykresy z krachu 2008 roku, to praktycznie zaraz po spadkach, kursy zaczęły od razu odrabiać straty i nie było, już później dosłownie, żadnych dużych spadków, właśnie na czołowych indeksach, raczej odwrotnie - szło w górę.

Poprzedni kryzys wywodził się w dużym skrócie z źle oszacowanego ryzyka przez banki i inne instytucje finansowe. To co teraz mamy ma potencjał siania dużo większego spustoszenia zakładając najczarniejsze scenariusze (lockdown przez nawet 1.5 roku... albo dłużej (!)).

To jedna strona medalu. Drugą będą osoby starające się ratować swoje oszczędności. Cięzko mi powiedzieć czego będzie więcej. Mam jednak nadzieję, że satoshi wiedział co robi tworząc bitcoina właśnie na takie czasy.

Satoshi zdawał się brać pod uwagę kryzysy nieświadomie wywoływane przez państwa, a nie globalne pandemie, przez które siadają na długo gospodarki na całym świecie.

Póki co cena jest jako-tako stabilna, poczekajmy na raporty wyników pierwszego kwartału przez spółki giełdowe pod koniec kwietnia + jakie będzie z bezrobociem + kończące się oszczędności wielu ludzi i firm przez najbliższe tygodnie.
903  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: SCAM: Bitcoin SV (BSV) - fake team member and plagiarized white paper on: March 24, 2020, 01:40:25 PM
I honestly think that Calvin has realized (or is starting to) that Craig isn't Satoshi by now. Calvin is technologically impaired so I understand how someone like Craig can easily fool him. I expect Calvin to double down soon as a final attempt to make BSV work (which will obviously fail).

Even if he at some point may have been fooled and believed CSW to be Satoshi (as many other gullible people did), he doesn't strike me as an idiot with his business experience and all. It's all calculated to extract as much money from BSV and ventures related to BSV. CSW is the useful idiot who will lose the most on this (eventually) even if he doesn't see himself that way, or thought himself to be smarter than he is.
904  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit – The original crash game on: March 24, 2020, 11:20:15 AM
Looks like someone who has the seed and plays smart.

His bets and wins don't seem to look out of the ordinary. If he wanted to defraud the casino he would have been better off maximizing his wins under multiple accounts and withdrawing the winnings. Not risking that the admin finds out the seed may have been leaked.
905  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: March 24, 2020, 11:03:48 AM
Lambo guys zawiedzeni, że przed halvingiem nie rośnie.

Urosło, stąd po zeszłorocznym dołku $3.2k mamy ponad 2x tyle.

Ale nadal trzeba się liczyć z tym, że jak kryzys będzie postępował i nie będzie nadziei na powrót do normalności to będzie wyprzedaż - choćby po to, aby mieć za co opłacić koszta, długi, itp.

Sprzedają również zawiedzieni, że bitcoin "nie spisał się jako bezpieczna przystań" -> podczas krachu podczas którego spadało również złoto - nr.1 pod względem bezpiecznych przystani.

Kolejna pieśń w stylu 'Bitcoin jest martwy'. Wink
906  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: value increase on: March 22, 2020, 03:50:38 PM
Yes. If you don't want to be affected by the price's volatility, you can buy Tether (USDT) from an exchange and then trade back to Bitcoin whenever you're ready to spend them.

Just keep in mind that you're then trading from risk exposure to Bitcoin's price volatility to risk exposure of a potential collapse of Tether. Keeping Tethers shouldn't be any different from storing coins or fiat money on a random cryptocurrency exchange.
907  Economy / Economics / Re: Italian Bank offers Bitcoin Wallet Integration in their Online Platform. on: March 22, 2020, 04:33:03 AM
It will be interesting to see if they start feeling any pressure from other banks due to FATF travel rule which is supposed to apply to cryptocurrency transactions too, that would spell the end transferring bitcoins without limitations through banks like these.
FATF recommendations come down to ensuring that the user is identified if the transaction amount exceeds one thousand euros. In my opinion, in this case, each user of the services offered is a client of the bank and the bank has enough data to identify its customers. Therefore, there is no need for any additional restrictions. The beginning is very interesting. I hope that banks will soon switch to services in other types of cryptocurrencies, since payments in bitcoins are not always convenient due to the high cost of the transaction.


Yeah but what if the user sends the bitcoins to some address belonging to someone who's not a customer at this bank?

I hope they won't be pressured to introduce restrictions where the user can transfer their bitcoins.
908  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: LightningBattle.com Play Games of Skill for Bitcoin (Lightning enabled) on: March 20, 2020, 07:20:28 AM
https://www.lightningbattle.com/terms

"3.6 Only users located in the fullowing regions may use this software:
14. SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC RESTRICTION:  Residents of (...) are permitted to view this site or use any of the games accessed and provided hereby. From time to time, in its sule discretion, LB may amend the list of specific geographic restrictions from which You may not access any of the Services."

I assume you meant to say "not permitted".
909  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2020-03-09] Bitcoin Hashrate, Mining Difficulty Hit New Highs Inefficient Miner on: March 20, 2020, 06:42:48 AM
When it comes to China, some old data show that price to mine 1 BTC is around $3000, and considering that we have such price during the 2018, and in the beginning of 2019, we can say that the current price still makes a profit for miners in China.  Generally speaking, mining is still profitable and I believe it will be for the next 10+ years, at least for those who have money to invest and can wait few years for ROI.

Mining can be barely profitable if even if you can get very cheap electricity and do it at scale. It's very risky, with a long time for a ROI if the BTC price to mining difficulty ratio remains unchanged, and as everyone is looking to cut their operating costs to the minimum, the odds are against you. It's better deal for the ASIC manufacturer, but it's still a gamble.

But it's a temporary thing, and miners know it.

Bitcoin block reward is set to halve in less than two months. Expect longer transaction confirmation times until next retarget after the halving.
910  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC + Corona on: March 20, 2020, 03:57:51 AM
If we have a financial crisis and people are lose their jobs they will need money to pay their bills and for other expenses, and they will probably sell their bitcoins / won't bother buying more.
911  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2020-03-18] Interest in BTC Futures Drops Amid Discussions on: March 20, 2020, 12:14:19 AM
I think interest will soon increase when bitcoin starts to grow in price even more, and the stock will be in the red.

The stock market recovered a bit and so did Bitcoin, short-medium term it looks like the coronavirus and all the problems resulting from it are here to stay for a while (until perhaps it mutates into a less lethal form, higher temperatures mostly kill it off, or someone figures out how to cheaply fight it, as vaccines are probably 1-2 years away), so I wouldn't get my hopes up just yet.
912  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk Forum - Facebook like website on: March 19, 2020, 01:52:59 AM
I think theymos is fixing any security holes he can find (or if anyone reports any) and the new forum hasn't been tested as extensively (only a handful of tiny Internet discussion forums transitioned into using it) so it might not be as secure.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5108349.msg49921196#msg49921196
913  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk Forum - Facebook like website on: March 18, 2020, 01:09:00 PM
Sounds like you might be interested in steem/steemit.

https://steemit.com/

It's a bit of a scam to be fair but it's closer to what you seem to be looking for.

Bitcointalk.org is a discussion forum so a different thing entirely.
914  Economy / Economics / Re: Italian Bank offers Bitcoin Wallet Integration in their Online Platform. on: March 18, 2020, 01:05:48 PM
It will be interesting to see if they start feeling any pressure from other banks due to FATF travel rule which is supposed to apply to cryptocurrency transactions too, that would spell the end transferring bitcoins without limitations through banks like these.
915  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: US has planted a land mine in Tax Reporting for 2019. on: March 18, 2020, 12:36:48 PM
U.S. citizens don't even have that option in the first place. Before Binance re-entered the U.S. market their previous operations was labelled as illegal and they are left but to either freeze their US Customer's accounts if they haven't withdrawn their balances before the deadline. Just by writing this post I just have realized that the IRS and various other US authorities might have just covered a lot of loopholes when it comes to shedding of some of their citizens' taxes. They are really keen on looking each and every way we use out cryptocurrencies and they are always trying to cover it with their power.

Have all foreign non-scammy exchanges blocked US citizens/residents from using their services? Some of the biggest ones such as binance and bitmex (and bitfinex for most users) don't deal with US citizens, but some smaller exchanges don't seem to have such restrictions, e.g. bitbay. They don't allow US citizens to participate in their IEOs, though.
916  Local / Polski / Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC. on: March 18, 2020, 04:48:19 AM
Powiem Ci, że nie ma w co zainwestować, ani jak inaczej ulokować pieniędzy, żeby nie stracić podczas tego krachu, bo już chyba o krachu na skalę światową możemy mówić, jeżeli wszystkie największe giełdy, oraz inne instrumenty gospodarki światowej, jak akcje, itp. notują rekordowe spadki od lat i pomimo tego, że Unia Europejska robi co może, oraz Ameryka próbuje (co wydaje mi sie zupełnie bez sensu) coś robić (czyli dodrukować na potęgę), to i tak powoli zbliżamy sie do kolejnego kryzysu globalnego, jak z 2008 lub nawet gorszego. Nawet złoto zaczyna spadać, chociaż jak do tej pory było jedynym "save haven" dla inwestorów.

Inwestować w to co ludzie dalej będą potrzebować i kupować i co schodzi. Czyli np. w firmy produkujące maski (wszędzie podrożały x10), środki czystości, broń i amunicja (amunicja 9x19 w Polsce jest wszędzie wykupywana, czarnoprochowce bez pozwolenia tam gdzie jeszcze mają są dużo droższe, etc.).

Bitcoin jako "save haven" czy "store of value" wydawał mi się zawsze jakimś nieporozumieniem i chyba ostatnie spadki, oraz korelacje BTC ze światowymi rynkami dowodzą, że nie może, co najmniej jak na razie, być o tym mowy. Na fali hyipu "save haven", "digital gold", "store of value" przejechaliśmy cały 2019 rok. Jestem ciekaw, co nas czeka do końca 2020 i jak teraz bitcoinowi maksymaliści odnajdą i wytłumaczą, a może raczej obronią, jego miejsce na rynku i co chyba najważniejsze - zastosowanie, czyli tkzw. "use case"?

*safe haven

Jak nawet złoto spada to zostaje tylko to czego każdy potrzebuję, czyli to co wymieniłem wyżej. Bitcoina w krajach rozwiniętych najbardziej potrzebują użytkownicy DNM, hazardziści, osoby uciekające przed wierzycielami, itp. Jeśli role interwencyjne państw uległyby minimalizacji, np. organy policyjne nie miałyby poświęcać zasobów na osoby chcące handlować czy odurzać się narkotykami to zmniejszyłoby to atrakcyjność kryptowalut.
917  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: US has planted a land mine in Tax Reporting for 2019. on: March 18, 2020, 03:01:28 AM
Aren't they the ones who are requiring crypto exchanges operating in the U.S. to submit "random" trading transactions from their customers with unusual activity as part of their KYC and AML compliance? From what I know they are also using Chainalysis to track down suspected illicit activities in the U.S.'s crypto industry so I wouldn't say that voluntary compliance is the only thing they are doing in order to scare or put people back in line when it comes to reporting their taxes. They do tons of research as well as background checks so that they are taxing their citizens correctly or try to maximize the tax they want from each individual so I do think it is out of the question when they are doing this things within the industry.

That and various tax treaties so even using a foreign exchange might not be enough long term if someone went through KYC.
918  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: [WTS] EVGA GeForce GTX 1070 SC GAMING, 08G-P4-5173-KR, 8GB GDDR5, ACX 3.0 on: March 18, 2020, 02:42:22 AM
Bitcoin was being traded at ~$8800 when OP started this topic. 0.021*8800 = $185 and that is close to 2nd market price of this GPU.
919  Local / Polski / Re: Signature campaing - regularnie płatne pewniaki on: March 18, 2020, 02:03:26 AM
Dodatkowe informacje: min 15 postów, lokale się nie liczą

Elitarne stawki. 4$ za post dla hero/legendary.

Dla porównania, w kampanii Chipmixer przy obecnym kursie 0.00075 BTC/post można dostać $4.03. Jak kurs odrobinę spadnie to Roobet będzie najlepiej płatnym programem.
920  Economy / Speculation / Re: Notorious Bear Tone Vays: 90% chance $3,800 was the low on: March 18, 2020, 12:13:54 AM
It's complicated. Asymptomatic cases are now recognized as a major driver of the pandemic: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

While it may spread more easily than most forms of the flu, this new data suggests the mortality rate is being very drastically overestimated. The mortality rate draws only on confirmed cases and deaths (high risk symptomatic cases) while asymptomatic or mild cases are going completely under the radar in extreme numbers.

This is hard to speculate about, but given the flurry of new information on asymptomatic cases and the general trajectory of mortality estimates (see the swine flu example earlier) it's not much more deadly than the seasonal flu. I would guess the current estimates will drop by an order of magnitude, closer to 0.3-0.4% (maybe even lower) rather than 3-4%.

Quote
On average, seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1 percent of people who become infected. The 1918 flu had an unusually high fatality rate, around 2 percent.

Obituaries in a Bergamo newspaper are 3-5 times longer than usually:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-obituaries-bergamo-italy/2020/03/16/6c342f02-66c7-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html

On the Diamond Princess about half were asymptomatic. 1% of diagnosed cases there ended in deaths. 1% death rate, under an assumption that there is enough equipment and qualified medical staff, is a significant number, especially if this coronavirus might not be eradicated by summer's time, because then the death rate can quintuple.

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