Cricket match prediction discussions

[JSRAW]

I feel bad for associate boards in advance.

Now picture is more clear and it looks like ICC has achieved its target by organizing a close bid. Just look at the difference between winning bid and 2nd best bid. The difference is close to $2 Billion.

Disney is rich but they won't be much happy after seeing the massive difference and fell into FOMO trap, time will tell if they overpaid or not. That's why one needs a transparent process at auction.

I don't know how accurate are these numbers. When the reserve price is $1.44 billion, how can SONY make a bid for $1.3 billion? Is this even allowed? As far as I know, the ICC hasn't made these figures public. So for now, it is pure speculation. My guess is that Sony's bid was a lot higher than $1.3 billion, and probably more than $2 billion. I would have preferred SONY, because their quality (both TV and online streaming) is much better than Disney-Star. Disney is a bit money minded and doesn't care much about the quality.

There was some provision on tenders that bidders are allowed to bid lower than the base price. This KSR guy is pretty reliable on money numbers, might not be accurate but 99% time he comes very close.

The recent bid was for just 4 years, in comparison to the previous deal which was 8 years (around $2 Billion or something) so it's possible that SONY bid was lower.

This is another thread from him. https://twitter.com/KShriniwasRao/status/1564226662656626689

[GigaBit]

T20 started gaining popularity after 2007 and till now we had 4 Olympics after that and you cannot count the 2008 Olympics considering T20 started gaining popularity after 2007. Next Olympics is in Paris and the realistic possibility of inclusion is the 2032 Olympics which is taking place in Brisbane and the host nation can suggest which games to include when they are hosting and Cricket will be a real possiblity.

Cricket is not a new game rather its as old as hills, still its not seen in any Olympics till date. The real reason is ICC along with big parties are not interested in taking cricket to Olympics. No matter how much you and me discuss here, its only about what ICC wants.

Some people are accusing that ICC is not showing interest. On the opposite, it sounds like the Olympic Association is not accepting it. In such a condition it is going through an oscillating situation. But in this case I am skeptical about the role of ICC. I think if cricket is taken to the Olympics it might not beneficial for them. But hopefully it will be included in the Olympics today or tomorrow.

[Sithara007]

There was some provision on tenders that bidders are allowed to bid lower than the base price. This KSR guy is pretty reliable on money numbers, might not be accurate but 99% time he comes very close.

The recent bid was for just 4 years, in comparison to the previous deal which was 8 years (around $2 Billion or something) so it's possible that SONY bid was lower.

This is another thread from him. https://twitter.com/KShriniwasRao/status/1564226662656626689

Anyway, I guess the ICC got more than what they were expecting. Personally I was expecting somewhere in the range of $2.0 to $2.5 billion, given that the reserve price of $1.44 sounded a bit optimistic. Looks as if Disney-Star desperately wanted to win the media rights, since Ten Sports has grabbed the rights to bilateral series with most of the national boards. This bid by Disney-Star just proves how desperate they are. I am interested to know how much the ICC may get from the other regions. US/UK is also a lucrative market and is going in the next round.

[justdimin]

Anyway, I guess the ICC got more than what they were expecting. Personally I was expecting somewhere in the range of $2.0 to $2.5 billion, given that the reserve price of $1.44 sounded a bit optimistic. Looks as if Disney-Star desperately wanted to win the media rights, since Ten Sports has grabbed the rights to bilateral series with most of the national boards. This bid by Disney-Star just proves how desperate they are. I am interested to know how much the ICC may get from the other regions. US/UK is also a lucrative market and is going in the next round.

Here as things are going with this we can blame ICC and B-4 for this all instead of Olympics Association for cricket is not part of this mega event for long time because they never do their homework and bring suitable policies which is surely all have to done by ICC instead of Olympics Association because they are wide open for this, and they already announce they have nothing from ICC for this which was a slap on them for saying there are some problems by other party.

Olympics Association has their policies and all other sports associations have to follow them, but ICC is not doing anything for this which is the biggest problem that cricket is not part of this event but now as we are reading and feeling things could be positive in next few years, and we will be able to have cricket in this mega event which could be amazing for the fans and the game future.

[kro55]

Anyway, I guess the ICC got more than what they were expecting. Personally I was expecting somewhere in the range of $2.0 to $2.5 billion, given that the reserve price of $1.44 sounded a bit optimistic. Looks as if Disney-Star desperately wanted to win the media rights, since Ten Sports has grabbed the rights to bilateral series with most of the national boards. This bid by Disney-Star just proves how desperate they are. I am interested to know how much the ICC may get from the other regions. US/UK is also a lucrative market and is going in the next round.

Here as things are going with this we can blame ICC and B-4 for this all instead of Olympics Association for cricket is not part of this mega event for long time because they never do their homework and bring suitable policies which is surely all have to done by ICC instead of Olympics Association because they are wide open for this, and they already announce they have nothing from ICC for this which was a slap on them for saying there are some problems by other party.

Olympics Association has their policies and all other sports associations have to follow them, but ICC is not doing anything for this which is the biggest problem that cricket is not part of this event but now as we are reading and feeling things could be positive in next few years, and we will be able to have cricket in this mega event which could be amazing for the fans and the game future.

I think the problem with the Olympics is that in reality, they are not interested in anything other than the actual rules. In addition, the big four cannot impose their authority over the Olympics as well. So we can say that the big four teams are basically saying, and basically convincing the ICC, that introducing cricket to the Olympics is not going to be a smart idea. In addition, the ICC is also on board with that idea.

In spite of this, you can see that if you analyze this from the point of view of the ICC, we will see that they receive the most amount of money from the top four teams. Thus, it makes perfect sense for them to listen to what the top four cricket boards have to say about the matter.

[WatChe]

I think the problem with the Olympics is that in reality, they are not interested in anything other than the actual rules. In addition, the big four cannot impose their authority over the Olympics as well. So we can say that the big four teams are basically saying, and basically convincing the ICC, that introducing cricket to the Olympics is not going to be a smart idea. In addition, the ICC is also on board with that idea.

In spite of this, you can see that if you analyze this from the point of view of the ICC, we will see that they receive the most amount of money from the top four teams. Thus, it makes perfect sense for them to listen to what the top four cricket boards have to say about the matter.

Big fours are formed because rest of the boards surrendered there rights to them. Recently women cricket is included in common wealth games but not men. The real reason is big 3 don't wanna cricket to have more counties that can challenge there authority.

[eaLiTy]

~
Cricket is not a new game rather its as old as hills, still its not seen in any Olympics till date. The real reason is ICC along with big parties are not interested in taking cricket to Olympics. No matter how much you and me discuss here, its only about what ICC wants.

We have discussed this over and over again, Cricket was played in 1900 Olympics, if you were not aware of it . It was a two day game and only two teams participated, England and France and obviously England won the Gold. Olympics is held for 16 days and only now Cricket match duration is cut down to T20 FYI to have a realistic possibility to be included in Olympics.

~
Big fours are formed because rest of the boards surrendered there rights to them. Recently women cricket is included in common wealth games but not men. The real reason is big 3 don't wanna cricket to have more counties that can challenge there authority.

Reality check, all the countries national board including ICC is pitching billions of dollars worth of media rights and they will be obligated to follow them with the content and hence it is not about challenging any authority but to follow the media obligations without breaking the contract. Woman's cricket is not getting that much media rights or obligations and hence i wont be surprised if they include woman's cricket in the Olympics before they include Men's.

[Sithara007]

Big fours are formed because rest of the boards surrendered there rights to them. Recently women cricket is included in common wealth games but not men. The real reason is big 3 don't wanna cricket to have more counties that can challenge there authority.

They are afraid that their revenue may get impacted. If cricket is included in multi-sport events such as Olympics, then there is not much financial benefit for the ICC (or for the national boards). In the end, cricket is being administered by businessmen and their sole consideration is money. That is the reason why they don't want men's cricket in Olympics. Another reason is that for Olympics direct qualification is not allowed. Each and every team needs to take part in the qualifier tournament. This is not acceptable for boards such as the BCCI.

[wiss19]

Big fours are formed because rest of the boards surrendered there rights to them. Recently women cricket is included in common wealth games but not men. The real reason is big 3 don't wanna cricket to have more counties that can challenge there authority.

They are afraid that their revenue may get impacted. If cricket is included in multi-sport events such as Olympics, then there is not much financial benefit for the ICC (or for the national boards). In the end, cricket is being administered by businessmen and their sole consideration is money. That is the reason why they don't want men's cricket in Olympics. Another reason is that for Olympics direct qualification is not allowed. Each and every team needs to take part in the qualifier tournament. This is not acceptable for boards such as the BCCI.

The biggest part of this all talk is they are afraid of get impacted in revenue which they don't want specially BCCI because they are big gainer and with this all they are not feeling good it's all understandable so if they are not happy then surely others can go by their own way which is also not bad at all.

BCCI not participated in these events because if they are not happy then surely they can leave this all for others which is also not bad and if they want to do then surely they can go with option like Under-23 teams or all teams can send their A team which is also not bad at all because in soccer they are mostly sending their Under-23 teams which are also good for the all countries and BCCI is not happy with qualifier it's really disgusting they have to follow all rules which are applicable and others are going through with them.

[JSRAW]

There was some provision on tenders that bidders are allowed to bid lower than the base price. This KSR guy is pretty reliable on money numbers, might not be accurate but 99% time he comes very close.

The recent bid was for just 4 years, in comparison to the previous deal which was 8 years (around $2 Billion or something) so it's possible that SONY bid was lower.

This is another thread from him. https://twitter.com/KShriniwasRao/status/1564226662656626689

Anyway, I guess the ICC got more than what they were expecting. Personally I was expecting somewhere in the range of $2.0 to $2.5 billion, given that the reserve price of $1.44 sounded a bit optimistic. Looks as if Disney-Star desperately wanted to win the media rights, since Ten Sports has grabbed the rights to bilateral series with most of the national boards. This bid by Disney-Star just proves how desperate they are. I am interested to know how much the ICC may get from the other regions. US/UK is also a lucrative market and is going in the next round.

After all, they have to keep engaged their 10s of million paid subscribers so desperation is very much understandable. Having said that the way other competitors submitted their bids conservatively, it does seems that Disney really overpaid here, another interesting factor is the timezone of 2024 T-20 WC (USA, WI), it's not suitable for IST.

[Juggy777]

There was some provision on tenders that bidders are allowed to bid lower than the base price. This KSR guy is pretty reliable on money numbers, might not be accurate but 99% time he comes very close.

The recent bid was for just 4 years, in comparison to the previous deal which was 8 years (around $2 Billion or something) so it's possible that SONY bid was lower.

This is another thread from him. https://twitter.com/KShriniwasRao/status/1564226662656626689

Anyway, I guess the ICC got more than what they were expecting. Personally I was expecting somewhere in the range of $2.0 to $2.5 billion, given that the reserve price of $1.44 sounded a bit optimistic. Looks as if Disney-Star desperately wanted to win the media rights, since Ten Sports has grabbed the rights to bilateral series with most of the national boards. This bid by Disney-Star just proves how desperate they are. I am interested to know how much the ICC may get from the other regions. US/UK is also a lucrative market and is going in the next round.

After all, they have to keep engaged their 10s of million paid subscribers so desperation is very much understandable. Having said that the way other competitors submitted their bids conservatively, it does seems that Disney really overpaid here, another interesting factor is the timezone of 2024 T-20 WC (USA, WI), it's not suitable for IST.

@JSRAW all OTT platform are facing serious competition hence I can understand why they over paid, and further this industry is very lucrative and thus what may look expensive for us may actually be a bargain for them considering that they’ll make a lot more as advertisers are paying premium amounts to advertise on OTT platform’s.

Big fours are formed because rest of the boards surrendered there rights to them. Recently women cricket is included in common wealth games but not men. The real reason is big 3 don't wanna cricket to have more counties that can challenge there authority.

They are afraid that their revenue may get impacted. If cricket is included in multi-sport events such as Olympics, then there is not much financial benefit for the ICC (or for the national boards). In the end, cricket is being administered by businessmen and their sole consideration is money. That is the reason why they don't want men's cricket in Olympics. Another reason is that for Olympics direct qualification is not allowed. Each and every team needs to take part in the qualifier tournament. This is not acceptable for boards such as the BCCI.

The biggest part of this all talk is they are afraid of get impacted in revenue which they don't want specially BCCI because they are big gainer and with this all they are not feeling good it's all understandable so if they are not happy then surely others can go by their own way which is also not bad at all.

BCCI not participated in these events because if they are not happy then surely they can leave this all for others which is also not bad and if they want to do then surely they can go with option like Under-23 teams or all teams can send their A team which is also not bad at all because in soccer they are mostly sending their Under-23 teams which are also good for the all countries and BCCI is not happy with qualifier it's really disgusting they have to follow all rules which are applicable and others are going through with them.

@Sithara007 I believe another fear is that Olympic’s could over shadow IPL in the long run, and BCCI will not allow any other tournament to steal IPL’s limelight hence it’s understandable why BCCI is so opposed to men’s team’s participation in the Olympic’s.

[kro55]

Big fours are formed because rest of the boards surrendered there rights to them. Recently women cricket is included in common wealth games but not men. The real reason is big 3 don't wanna cricket to have more counties that can challenge there authority.

They are afraid that their revenue may get impacted. If cricket is included in multi-sport events such as Olympics, then there is not much financial benefit for the ICC (or for the national boards). In the end, cricket is being administered by businessmen and their sole consideration is money. That is the reason why they don't want men's cricket in Olympics. Another reason is that for Olympics direct qualification is not allowed. Each and every team needs to take part in the qualifier tournament. This is not acceptable for boards such as the BCCI.

The biggest part of this all talk is they are afraid of get impacted in revenue which they don't want specially BCCI because they are big gainer and with this all they are not feeling good it's all understandable so if they are not happy then surely others can go by their own way which is also not bad at all.
BCCI not participated in these events because if they are not happy then surely they can leave this all for others which is also not bad and if they want to do then surely they can go with option like Under-23 teams or all teams can send their A team which is also not bad at all because in soccer they are mostly sending their Under-23 teams which are also good for the all countries and BCCI is not happy with qualifier it's really disgusting they have to follow all rules which are applicable and others are going through with them.

@Sithara007 and @wiss19 But aren’t having cricket as an Olympic sport going to increase the popularity of cricket?
Which in the future is going to increase the revenue eventually?
ICC is a big sports body and they should understand this. And they should also know that the big four are doing this just because they don’t want to lose their authority over the ICC.

@WatChe, It is true that if the other cricket boards just did not surrender their rights to the big four, there wouldn’t have been any big four.
But right now it is too late to come out of that situation. ICC is the one who needs to take steps.

[Sithara007]

After all, they have to keep engaged their 10s of million paid subscribers so desperation is very much understandable. Having said that the way other competitors submitted their bids conservatively, it does seems that Disney really overpaid here, another interesting factor is the timezone of 2024 T-20 WC (USA, WI), it's not suitable for IST.

They desperately wanted to tap in to the American market and that is the reason why they made United States co-hosts for 2024 world cup (thereby giving automatic qualification). I don't understand this logic. In that case when India hosts the next T20 World Cup, the BCCI can give 1-2 matches each to Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Myanmar, there by enabling these countries to qualify automatically.

BTW, I made some rough calculations regarding the ICC fund allocation for next cycle.

Disney-Star paid the ICC $2.1 billion for the last 8-year cycle (2015-23). And this was for world-wide rights. The amount allotted for distribution to member associations stood at $1.7 billion (with the remaining amount eaten up by administrative costs and other expenses).

This time, they are paying $3.04 billion just for India. If we give a conservative estimate of 80% of the revenues coming from India, ICC should be able to get around $3.75 billion for the next 4 years from media rights sale alone. That is around 350% higher (per year) than what was last time.

So ideally the fund allocation from the ICC should go up by 350% for all the countries from 2024 onwards. But the catch is that the BCCI can claim that 80% of the revenues come from India and therefore they should get a similar share.

[JSRAW]

After all, they have to keep engaged their 10s of million paid subscribers so desperation is very much understandable. Having said that the way other competitors submitted their bids conservatively, it does seems that Disney really overpaid here, another interesting factor is the timezone of 2024 T-20 WC (USA, WI), it's not suitable for IST.

They desperately wanted to tap in to the American market and that is the reason why they made United States co-hosts for 2024 world cup (thereby giving automatic qualification). I don't understand this logic. In that case when India hosts the next T20 World Cup, the BCCI can give 1-2 matches each to Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Myanmar, there by enabling these countries to qualify automatically.

Yeah, one of the main reasons but except desi audience, I don't think the average American is remotely interested in cricket and by doing so they are losing the Indian audience due to the timezone.

Not sure if it's possible for BCCI cause of technical (ICC) and Financial (Broadcasters) reasons.

BTW, I made some rough calculations regarding the ICC fund allocation for next cycle.

Disney-Star paid the ICC $2.1 billion for the last 8-year cycle (2015-23). And this was for world-wide rights. The amount allotted for distribution to member associations stood at $1.7 billion (with the remaining amount eaten up by administrative costs and other expenses).

This time, they are paying $3.04 billion just for India. If we give a conservative estimate of 80% of the revenues coming from India, ICC should be able to get around $3.75 billion for the next 4 years from media rights sale alone. That is around 350% higher (per year) than what was last time.

So ideally the fund allocation from the ICC should go up by 350% for all the countries from 2024 onwards. But the catch is that the BCCI can claim that 80% of the revenues come from India and therefore they should get a similar share.

Sounds about right.

I guess BCCI won't claim such a thing because they have never demanded a similar share even when BIG-3 system was in play.

BCCI will play safe and I'm sure they will try to expand IPL to more teams and duration from the next cycle. Having said that BCCI vs ICC struggle over tax issue is going to be interesting. India is hosting ODI WC.

[Sithara007]

Sounds about right.

I guess BCCI won't claim such a thing because they have never demanded a similar share even when BIG-3 system was in play.

BCCI will play safe and I'm sure they will try to expand IPL to more teams and duration from the next cycle. Having said that BCCI vs ICC struggle over tax issue is going to be interesting. India is hosting ODI WC.

Tax issue is going to be tricky. The probability is that BCCI will reimburse at least a part of the tax bill to ICC. That said, I don't understand this issue fully. I don't think that the TV rights can be taxed in India. So it is going to be the sponsorship and ticket sales. Is this amount going to be very high? But one thing is sure. The tax rates in India are too high, and that was one of the reasons why in 2021 the IPL was shifted to UAE. But even after taxes, the gate collection from India will be higher than the same from other countries.

[JSRAW]

Sounds about right.

I guess BCCI won't claim such a thing because they have never demanded a similar share even when BIG-3 system was in play.

BCCI will play safe and I'm sure they will try to expand IPL to more teams and duration from the next cycle. Having said that BCCI vs ICC struggle over tax issue is going to be interesting. India is hosting ODI WC.

Tax issue is going to be tricky. The probability is that BCCI will reimburse at least a part of the tax bill to ICC. That said, I don't understand this issue fully. I don't think that the TV rights can be taxed in India. So it is going to be the sponsorship and ticket sales. Is this amount going to be very high? But one thing is sure. The tax rates in India are too high, and that was one of the reasons why in 2021 the IPL was shifted to UAE. But even after taxes, the gate collection from India will be higher than the same from other countries.

For 2023 WC it should be around $70-100 Million. Government just wants to tax cricket because here in India cricket is the only sport that generates revenue for every party and they don't want to miss out.

ICC wants tax exemption and threatens BCCI of pulling out or detecting the amount from their existing share. Nah it was because of covid.

[doomloop]

@Sithara007 and @wiss19 But aren’t having cricket as an Olympic sport going to increase the popularity of cricket?
Which in the future is going to increase the revenue eventually?
ICC is a big sports body and they should understand this. And they should also know that the big four are doing this just because they don’t want to lose their authority over the ICC.

@WatChe, It is true that if the other cricket boards just did not surrender their rights to the big four, there wouldn’t have been any big four.
But right now it is too late to come out of that situation. ICC is the one who needs to take steps.

There is no doubt Olympics is going to be good for popularity of this game and have good attraction for many countries but as many members already mention it's directly going to be interaction with IPL which is not favorable for BCCI just because of this they are not going to allow this with their biggest share in this game they are doing all bad tactics for having their strong hold on this game and B-4 is strongly favoring them because they also have good profit from this IPL.

Here ICC is completely crap with having no good power and good market other than India for doing any positive thing even they can go ahead, but they are not taking any risk which is going to be the worst case for them in near future they must think about positively if they want to have good profit in the future.

[kro55]

-snip

There is no doubt Olympics is going to be good for popularity of this game and have good attraction for many countries but as many members already mention it's directly going to be interaction with IPL which is not favorable for BCCI just because of this they are not going to allow this with their biggest share in this game they are doing all bad tactics for having their strong hold on this game and B-4 is strongly favoring them because they also have good profit from this IPL.

Here ICC is completely crap with having no good power and good market other than India for doing any positive thing even they can go ahead, but they are not taking any risk which is going to be the worst case for them in near future they must think about positively if they want to have good profit in the future.

Cricket is inevitably dying. Even ICC will have to acknowledge that if they are being honest. But at the same time, they are also not doing anything to save this game.

At this moment if cricket was added to the Olympics, it would have been a great step taken for the best future of cricket. But it is very sad to say that I don’t see any urgency from ICC to do that. The bigger cricket boards are quite opposite of this. So I really don’t know what’s going to happen with cricket.

But one thing is sure with the introduction of the T-10 format cricket is going to get a lot more followers. A lot more teams are also going to be interested in cricket as well. But that might be happening at least two or three years later. Right now Olympics is the best option.

[Sithara007]

Cricket is inevitably dying. Even ICC will have to acknowledge that if they are being honest. But at the same time, they are also not doing anything to save this game.

At this moment if cricket was added to the Olympics, it would have been a great step taken for the best future of cricket. But it is very sad to say that I don’t see any urgency from ICC to do that. The bigger cricket boards are quite opposite of this. So I really don’t know what’s going to happen with cricket.

But one thing is sure with the introduction of the T-10 format cricket is going to get a lot more followers. A lot more teams are also going to be interested in cricket as well. But that might be happening at least two or three years later. Right now Olympics is the best option.

There was a lot of drama surrounding inclusion in the 2028 Olympics. ICC officials were claiming that they are trying their best to get cricket included for the 2028 Games. But then the International Olympic Committee (IOC) came up with a statement a few months ago, rejecting those claims. IOC stated that the ICC has shown no interest in getting cricket included, despite repeated reminders. Once this statement came out, the ICC guys panicked and they put forward an official application for the inclusion of cricket for the 2028 Games.  

[JSRAW]

Continuation of existing ICC media rights discussion.

I was listening to Twitter Spaces last night and it feels like a new narrative is going to build up in the coming days when ICC finalizes its media rights for everyone.

According to ICC Indian market makes up to 70% of their revenue and the rest of the world (majority of portion UK, Aus) contributes 30%.

The tricky situation is that if ICC fails to attract the remaining 30%, which is close to $900Million (based on a recent Indian media rights deal) then Indian share in generating revenue is going to up, the question is how much up it would go? If by any chance it goes close to 85-90% then expect more drama.