Cricket match prediction discussions

[Vaskiy]

Cricket is inevitably dying. Even ICC will have to acknowledge that if they are being honest. But at the same time, they are also not doing anything to save this game.

At this moment if cricket was added to the Olympics, it would have been a great step taken for the best future of cricket. But it is very sad to say that I don’t see any urgency from ICC to do that. The bigger cricket boards are quite opposite of this. So I really don’t know what’s going to happen with cricket.

But one thing is sure with the introduction of the T-10 format cricket is going to get a lot more followers. A lot more teams are also going to be interested in cricket as well. But that might be happening at least two or three years later. Right now Olympics is the best option.

There was a lot of drama surrounding inclusion in the 2028 Olympics. ICC officials were claiming that they are trying their best to get cricket included for the 2028 Games. But then the International Olympic Committee (IOC) came up with a statement a few months ago, rejecting those claims. IOC stated that the ICC has shown no interest in getting cricket included, despite repeated reminders. Once this statement came out, the ICC guys panicked and they put forward an official application for the inclusion of cricket for the 2028 Games.  

ICC doesn't want cricket to be included into Olympics. ICC doesn't want to loss it's control. The main one behind this seems to be BCCI, because they need to be on power as well as enjoy the money made out of cricket. For sure the leading cricket nations will fail while playing cricket in Olympics. There is no chance of adding ODI, because it isn't easy as playing T20.

[Sithara007]

Continuation of existing ICC media rights discussion.

I was listening to Twitter Spaces last night and it feels like a new narrative is going to build up in the coming days when ICC finalizes its media rights for everyone.

According to ICC Indian market makes up to 70% of their revenue and the rest of the world (majority of portion UK, Aus) contributes 30%.

The tricky situation is that if ICC fails to attract the remaining 30%, which is close to $900Million (based on a recent Indian media rights deal) then Indian share in generating revenue is going to up, the question is how much up it would go? If by any chance it goes close to 85-90% then expect more drama.

The Indian diaspora is getting bigger and bigger with each passing year. For example, in the United States, there were 4.46 million Indian Americans in the United States as per the 2020 Census, while 2.84 million was the number in 2010. On top of that, there are migrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, West Indies.etc, who are interested in cricket. US is going to be a premium market this time around. I don't think that there will be similar growth in revenues from the UK, since cricket is sliding down in popularity there.

[JSRAW]

Continuation of existing ICC media rights discussion.

I was listening to Twitter Spaces last night and it feels like a new narrative is going to build up in the coming days when ICC finalizes its media rights for everyone.

According to ICC Indian market makes up to 70% of their revenue and the rest of the world (majority of portion UK, Aus) contributes 30%.

The tricky situation is that if ICC fails to attract the remaining 30%, which is close to $900Million (based on a recent Indian media rights deal) then Indian share in generating revenue is going to up, the question is how much up it would go? If by any chance it goes close to 85-90% then expect more drama.

The Indian diaspora is getting bigger and bigger with each passing year. For example, in the United States, there were 4.46 million Indian Americans in the United States as per the 2020 Census, while 2.84 million was the number in 2010. On top of that, there are migrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, West Indies.etc, who are interested in cricket. US is going to be a premium market this time around. I don't think that there will be similar growth in revenues from the UK, since cricket is sliding down in popularity there.

I doubt if they are going to fetch a hefty amount from the USA despite a fair amount of immigrants. Disney is the US based so have to wait if they put out a tender for tv rights or OTT (preferred option) for just the US market.

Pundits are expecting $500 Million (many are being generous) from UK and Aus so let's see. 

[Sithara007]

Pundits are expecting $500 Million (many are being generous) from UK and Aus so let's see. 

I would still go with the figure of 80% market share from India. This would mean $3 billion from India and $750 million from rest of the world. Now I don't think that the majority will come from UK-AUS. Pakistan and Bangladesh may contribute at least $300 million, and then middle-east is also a lucrative market. I am expecting around $300 million from UK-AUS-NZ. US may contribute to somewhere around $100-200 million (including Canada). And I won't be surprised if the ICC manages to get somewhere around $1 billion from the rest of the world.

[JSRAW]

Pundits are expecting $500 Million (many are being generous) from UK and Aus so let's see.  

I would still go with the figure of 80% market share from India. This would mean $3 billion from India and $750 million from rest of the world. Now I don't think that the majority will come from UK-AUS. Pakistan and Bangladesh may contribute at least $300 million, and then middle-east is also a lucrative market. I am expecting around $300 million from UK-AUS-NZ. US may contribute to somewhere around $100-200 million (including Canada). And I won't be surprised if the ICC manages to get somewhere around $1 billion from the rest of the world.

Recent rights auctions were for the whole Indian subcontinent and according to broadcasters 95-97% are from India only and the way things are going in the subcontinent (Flood, economic, political unrest in Pakistan/Sri lanka) they are only relying on Indian market.

Edit

These numbers are from broadcasters.

[fuguebtc]

Continuation of existing ICC media rights discussion.

I was listening to Twitter Spaces last night and it feels like a new narrative is going to build up in the coming days when ICC finalizes its media rights for everyone.

According to ICC Indian market makes up to 70% of their revenue and the rest of the world (majority of portion UK, Aus) contributes 30%.

The tricky situation is that if ICC fails to attract the remaining 30%, which is close to $900Million (based on a recent Indian media rights deal) then Indian share in generating revenue is going to up, the question is how much up it would go? If by any chance it goes close to 85-90% then expect more drama.

It’s quite simple, isn’t it? ICC cannot tell them anything because they are the ones giving ICC a huge amount of money. And if ICC does decide to take a bold step and impose authority on the bigger cricket boards, especially India, obviously there will be a lot of drama around cricket. And ICC cannot quite frankly do that because they just don’t have that cross-over authority that they should have. So yes I think we can expect more drama if something like that happens.

[JSRAW]

Continuation of existing ICC media rights discussion.

I was listening to Twitter Spaces last night and it feels like a new narrative is going to build up in the coming days when ICC finalizes its media rights for everyone.

According to ICC Indian market makes up to 70% of their revenue and the rest of the world (majority of portion UK, Aus) contributes 30%.

The tricky situation is that if ICC fails to attract the remaining 30%, which is close to $900Million (based on a recent Indian media rights deal) then Indian share in generating revenue is going to up, the question is how much up it would go? If by any chance it goes close to 85-90% then expect more drama.

It’s quite simple, isn’t it? ICC cannot tell them anything because they are the ones giving ICC a huge amount of money. And if ICC does decide to take a bold step and impose authority on the bigger cricket boards, especially India, obviously there will be a lot of drama around cricket. And ICC cannot quite frankly do that because they just don’t have that cross-over authority that they should have. So yes I think we can expect more drama if something like that happens.

Yes, they can't but they do a lot of things behind closed doors. Also there is a narrative in cricketing world that India is ruining everything dear in Cricket and Evil BCCI.

But the reality is India is a net provider, not a destroyer and subsidizes world cricket. This picture is going to be more clear once ICC officially releases all the numbers.

[wiss19]

ICC doesn't want cricket to be included into Olympics. ICC doesn't want to loss it's control. The main one behind this seems to be BCCI, because they need to be on power as well as enjoy the money made out of cricket. For sure the leading cricket nations will fail while playing cricket in Olympics. There is no chance of adding ODI, because it isn't easy as playing T20.

ICC and B-4's greediness killing this game, and mostly it's done by BCCI because they are feeling they are major party, and they have right now to do all things which are better for them, and they are not allowing any other to be competed with them which is surely a big dilemma for this game and sports authority.
 
Even there is no doubt they are major contributor, but they need to understand all changes and have to give priority to major things which help this game overall not just by themselves they are increasing teams in IPL and want bigger window which is surely not fair but with the help of B-4 it's all going in their favor and now revenue is also big problem as BCCI want big share from this as they are major contributor, and they will achieve because again here all in their favour with this all we are not going to be good and better in marketing because BCCI don't like this.

[Sithara007]

Recent rights auctions were for the whole Indian subcontinent and according to broadcasters 95-97% are from India only and the way things are going in the subcontinent (Flood, economic, political unrest in Pakistan/Sri lanka) they are only relying on Indian market.

Edit

These numbers are from broadcasters.

I am quite surprised. GDP per capita in India is comparable to similar figures from neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Sri Lanka maybe down due to the recent economic meltdown. Given this, I expected the share from Pakistan and Bangladesh to be at least 1/3rd of that of India, given their combined population of more than 400 million. Even if it is not 35%, it can be 30% or at least 20%. I didn't expected this <5% figure. Is there any solid reason behind this discrepancy?

[JSRAW]

Recent rights auctions were for the whole Indian subcontinent and according to broadcasters 95-97% are from India only and the way things are going in the subcontinent (Flood, economic, political unrest in Pakistan/Sri lanka) they are only relying on Indian market.

Edit

These numbers are from broadcasters.

I am quite surprised. GDP per capita in India is comparable to similar figures from neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Sri Lanka maybe down due to the recent economic meltdown. Given this, I expected the share from Pakistan and Bangladesh to be at least 1/3rd of that of India, given their combined population of more than 400 million. Even if it is not 35%, it can be 30% or at least 20%. I didn't expected this <5% figure. Is there any solid reason behind this discrepancy?

Well according to ICC and countless sources Pakistan-Bangladesh-SriLanka combined global contribution is around 7-10% max even on good days so you can imagine when it comes down to the Subcontinent level then percentage and numbers are bound to go down drastically. BTW according to broadcasters, 95 - 97 % are conservative numbers (for India).

It's not like all 400million watch cricket there. Generous numbers IMO would be 20-40 Million. The basic standard would be Ind vs Pak (2019) match which attracted more than 300 Million viewers.

Point to note that there is no metric to calculate how many people watching live action on single tv set, big screen, pubs, OTT etc so it comes down to TV ratings and Clicks on OTT platform.

[Sithara007]

^^^ Anyway, we will get a good idea about their revenue share, when the ICC conducts the third round of media rights bidding. India is done for now, and they received $3.04 billion. US, UK and Australia will go next (probably by the end of this year), and this will be followed by rest of the world. My guess is $0.5 to $1.0 billion from the remaining regions.

It is very difficult to measure market value of sports broadcasting in Pakistan. The only metric that I have with me is the figure of $24 million, which was paid by A Sports and PTV Sports for the PSL (two year deal, covering 2022-23). That comes to around $12 million per year. On the other hand the IPL rights were sold for around $1.2 billion per year, which is 100 times higher.

That said, back in 2020, the PCB managed to sell a three-year rights package for international and domestic (excluding PSL) matches for $200 million to PTV Sports (the previous deal with SONY, for 2015-20 was worth just $60 million or $12 million per year).

[JSRAW]

Now I'm expecting some noise from the BCCI if the rest of the world media rights manages to collect just around $0.5 Billion, maybe some sort of additional compensation or some other demands from the BCCI.

Well by looking at PSL's numbers, I guess it gives us a fair idea about how much revenue the ICC tournament could generate from Pakistan.

[YinShuiSiYuan]

^^^ Anyway, we will get a good idea about their revenue share, when the ICC conducts the third round of media rights bidding. India is done for now, and they received $3.04 billion. US, UK and Australia will go next (probably by the end of this year), and this will be followed by rest of the world. My guess is $0.5 to $1.0 billion from the remaining regions.

It is very difficult to measure market value of sports broadcasting in Pakistan. The only metric that I have with me is the figure of $24 million, which was paid by A Sports and PTV Sports for the PSL (two year deal, covering 2022-23). That comes to around $12 million per year. On the other hand the IPL rights were sold for around $1.2 billion per year, which is 100 times higher.

That said, back in 2020, the PCB managed to sell a three-year rights package for international and domestic (excluding PSL) matches for $200 million to PTV Sports (the previous deal with SONY, for 2015-20 was worth just $60 million or $12 million per year).

Well PCB or no other board is close to BCCI in terms of generating revenue and thats what make BCCI strongest board in the world and has special powers in ICC. BCCI generates revenue that is more then sum of all boards. I dont think its fair to compare what PCB is generating with BCCI,

[JSRAW]

^^^ Anyway, we will get a good idea about their revenue share, when the ICC conducts the third round of media rights bidding. India is done for now, and they received $3.04 billion. US, UK and Australia will go next (probably by the end of this year), and this will be followed by rest of the world. My guess is $0.5 to $1.0 billion from the remaining regions.

It is very difficult to measure market value of sports broadcasting in Pakistan. The only metric that I have with me is the figure of $24 million, which was paid by A Sports and PTV Sports for the PSL (two year deal, covering 2022-23). That comes to around $12 million per year. On the other hand the IPL rights were sold for around $1.2 billion per year, which is 100 times higher.

That said, back in 2020, the PCB managed to sell a three-year rights package for international and domestic (excluding PSL) matches for $200 million to PTV Sports (the previous deal with SONY, for 2015-20 was worth just $60 million or $12 million per year).

Well PCB or no other board is close to BCCI in terms of generating revenue and thats what make BCCI strongest board in the world and has special powers in ICC. BCCI generates revenue that is more then sum of all boards. I dont think its fair to compare what PCB is generating with BCCI,

No one is comparing or particularly talking about PCB vs BCCI per se. These sorts of comparisons come only when the discussion is concentrated around the cricketing financial ecosystem, so please don't mind and this specific discussion is about recent ICC cricketing rights.

[Marvell1]

^^^ Anyway, we will get a good idea about their revenue share, when the ICC conducts the third round of media rights bidding. India is done for now, and they received $3.04 billion. US, UK and Australia will go next (probably by the end of this year), and this will be followed by rest of the world. My guess is $0.5 to $1.0 billion from the remaining regions.
It is very difficult to measure market value of sports broadcasting in Pakistan. The only metric that I have with me is the figure of $24 million, which was paid by A Sports and PTV Sports for the PSL (two year deal, covering 2022-23). That comes to around $12 million per year. On the other hand the IPL rights were sold for around $1.2 billion per year, which is 100 times higher.
That said, back in 2020, the PCB managed to sell a three-year rights package for international and domestic (excluding PSL) matches for $200 million to PTV Sports (the previous deal with SONY, for 2015-20 was worth just $60 million or $12 million per year).

Well PCB or no other board is close to BCCI in terms of generating revenue and thats what make BCCI strongest board in the world and has special powers in ICC. BCCI generates revenue that is more then sum of all boards. I dont think its fair to compare what PCB is generating with BCCI,

No one is comparing or particularly talking about PCB vs BCCI per se. These sorts of comparisons come only when the discussion is concentrated around the cricketing financial ecosystem, so please don't mind and this specific discussion is about recent ICC cricketing rights.

I do not expect the money to be very high. At least nowhere close to 4 billion. I don't expect this to cross 1 billion dollars.
It might increase depending on the current situation, the current economic situation of the world to be exact. Everything is more costly now.

Now I'm expecting some noise from the BCCI if the rest of the world media rights manages to collect just around $0.5 Billion, maybe some sort of additional compensation or some other demands from the BCCI.

Well by looking at PSL's numbers, I guess it gives us a fair idea about how much revenue the ICC tournament could generate from Pakistan.

No one is going to be able to generate money for ICC like India. And honestly now one is even going to be able to come close to India in terms of revenue.
PSL, PCL, and BPL can not even generate the revenue that India alone can generate. And India is going to flex about that for sure.
As per as I think it is also not going to be very surprised if they even try to take a little advantage of that as well.

[Theones]

PSL, PCL, and BPL can not even generate the revenue that India alone can generate. And India is going to flex about that for sure.
As per as I think it is also not going to be very surprised if they even try to take a little advantage of that as well.

PAkistan won match against India in Asia Cup tonight
What an amazing cricket we have watched to night. PAkistan won by 5 wickets.
India too played really well. Well done India

[jostorres]

PSL, PCL, and BPL can not even generate the revenue that India alone can generate. And India is going to flex about that for sure.
As per as I think it is also not going to be very surprised if they even try to take a little advantage of that as well.

PAkistan won match against India in Asia Cup tonight
What an amazing cricket we have watched to night. PAkistan won by 5 wickets.
India too played really well. Well done India

There is no doubt right now PSL, CPL and BPL these three leagues can't go near to IPL as they are world's fifth-biggest economy and world's most populated country these two biggest advantages are going into their favor, and they are taking good advantage of these with having window for IPL and now asking for more share in media rights which is ICC having for next four years.

Even no one can complain about this all but still here ICC needs to work on fair policy for all countries and try to have level in treatment as well because this is very important for them the spirit of this game and better value in future now as USA is also trying to enter this which is good and surely this can increase revenue of ICC because too many Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan are settled which will increase popularity of this game.

[mm2543363580]

Even no one can complain about this all but still here ICC needs to work on fair policy for all countries and try to have level in treatment as well because this is very important for them the spirit of this game and better value in future now as USA is also trying to enter this which is good and surely this can increase revenue of ICC because too many Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan are settled which will increase popularity of this game.

Let's for a. moment appreciate both the teams for showing amazing cricket today
Pakistan is experiencing a crucial flood in most of his region - and there is political turmoil too since last 6 months.
I believe this win will bring a bit of happiness to the people of Pakistan - congrats everyone..

[Smack That Ace]

PSL, PCL, and BPL can not even generate the revenue that India alone can generate. And India is going to flex about that for sure.
As per as I think it is also not going to be very surprised if they even try to take a little advantage of that as well.

PAkistan won match against India in Asia Cup tonight
What an amazing cricket we have watched to night. PAkistan won by 5 wickets.
India too played really well. Well done India

There is no doubt right now PSL, CPL and BPL these three leagues can't go near to IPL as they are world's fifth-biggest economy and world's most populated country these two biggest advantages are going into their favor, and they are taking good advantage of these with having window for IPL and now asking for more share in media rights which is ICC having for next four years.

Even no one can complain about this all but still here ICC needs to work on fair policy for all countries and try to have level in treatment as well because this is very important for them the spirit of this game and better value in future now as USA is also trying to enter this which is good and surely this can increase revenue of ICC because too many Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan are settled which will increase popularity of this game.

There is no chance that the ICC is going to work on your policy for every team in cricket. As we saw previously in this Asia Cup, when Pakistan lost against India, ICC posted a lot of posts on their Facebook timeline supporting India following the loss. I have not seen the ICC do the same thing for Pakistan in my opinion. That certainly shows the severity of discrimination that exists within the ICC. I do not think that the way the ICC does things will lead to any equality between the teams in cricket based on how they conduct themselves. Below is a link to the official Facebook page of the International Cricket Council. You can check if you wish to do so

https://www.facebook.com/icc


ReGarDs

DUke

[SirLancelot]

Even no one can complain about this all but still here ICC needs to work on fair policy for all countries and try to have level in treatment as well because this is very important for them the spirit of this game and better value in future now as USA is also trying to enter this which is good and surely this can increase revenue of ICC because too many Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan are settled which will increase popularity of this game.

Let's for a. moment appreciate both the teams for showing amazing cricket today
Pakistan is experiencing a crucial flood in most of his region - and there is political turmoil too since last 6 months.
I believe this win will bring a bit of happiness to the people of Pakistan - congrats everyone..

We have too many entertaining matches in this Asia Cup and this was also one of them with first match of this cup which played between these two teams on last Sunday was also very entertaining then we have two Afghanistan matches first against Bangladesh and then against Sri Lanka have another level of entertainment now this match again give good and performance from both teams and at the End Pakistan were winner which is good at this crucial time when they are suffering from many setback like floods and political unrest.

Even I am feeling they are in this situation for last few decades specially after 9/11 when USA attack Taliban in Afghanistan after this region is having not good news for anyone but now things are going worst hopefully we have some good news in near future from this region and this will also change into better living place.