Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[S3052]

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[S3052]

BTC/RUB is confirming the trend with a new all time high today around 2.45 RUB

[S3052]

Here is tonight's Technical Bitcoin Forecast Update.

Overall, our bitcoin forecast from Monday is on track.

Analysis Oct 20 (chart see attached pdf)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD are in a clear rally mode, with higher highs and lower lows. The uptrend is intact. Hence, as long as prices do not break below 0.06, we are in a longterm uptrend.

2. Short term update
The short term triangle (green converging lines in chart) is continuing to form. A breakout above the triangle converging lines would give upside potential towards the equal distance target measured from the Apex at 0.10 + (0.13 - 0.06). This means the next bigger target is 0.17 $ if a breakout of the triangle to the upside occurs. Further, but less difficult resistance will be at the all time high of 0.13


Today, I am narrowing down the support levels highlighted on Monday. There are 2 key short term support levels for the bitcoin forecast.

1. 0.094 (previous all time high from summer) and an area where we saw some bounces in the last 10 trading days.
2. 0.086 (current triangle upward sloping line)
3. Major long term supports remains in the 0.065 to 0.060 area.

Next update Friday.

[hugolp]

Waiting for the update.

[S3052]

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update. Now that this gets regular, I am almost feeling guilty that I went out for dinner and just got back late... (unfortunately they did not take BTC). Maybe BTC donation from you can help :-)


Overall, our forecast from the past updates is on track.

Analysis Oct 22 (chart see attached pdf)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows. The uptrend is intact. Hence, as long as prices do not break below 0.06, we are in a longterm uptrend. (no change from the previous 2 updates).
Volume trends (see organde dots) are also confirming accumulation and support the uptrend.

2. Short term update
The short term triangle (green converging lines in chart) is continuing to form almost in textbook style (see theory part 1 on page 2). Look how prices turned down at 0.108 today as they touched the downward sloping triangle line.

A breakout above the triangle converging lines would give upside potential towards the equal distance target measured from the Apex at 0.10 + (0.13 - 0.06). This means the next bigger target is 0.17 $ if a breakout of the triangle to the upside occurs. Further, but less difficult resistance will be at the all time high of 0.13.


Based on the development of the triangle formation, I am raising the support level to 0.097 (which also equals past 48 hours low). At least, prices should come down again to the 0.101 area in the next 24-48h

1. 0.097
2. Major long term support remains in the 0.065 to 0.060 area.

Next update Monday.

[S3052]

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.


Overall, our forecast from the past updates is well on track. Note: It is rare to see the forecast being fulfilled so perfectly as over the past 3 days (Don't expect this to be the case everytime, analysts like me can also be wrong sometimes). Prices broke out from the triangle, reached and slightly exceeded the interim target of 0.17 $.

Analysis Oct 25 (chart see attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows. The uptrend is intact. Hence, as long as prices do not break below 0.06, we are in a longterm uptrend. (no change from the previous updates).


2. Short term update
After the breakout, prices may consolidate now between 0.17 and 0.10/0.11$ for a couple of days before continuing the uptrend.  Only a break of 0.06 would invalidate the longterm rally.

Next update Wednesday (depending on your donations :-)

[Timo Y]

Thanks for your contribution - I've donated some BTC.

[S3052]

Thanks a lot!

That motivates me even more.

[Bimmerhead]

S3052, is there a forex discussion forum that you frequent?  Why not also offer your BTC/USD pronostications on a forex forum, so that it provides exposure to bitcoin to people who might find it interesting from a speculative angle?

If you do this, be sure to tell us where you are so we can sign up and follow the discussion there as well.

[Anonymous]

S3052, is there a forex discussion forum that you frequent?  Why not also offer your BTC/USD pronostications on a forex forum, so that it provides exposure to bitcoin to people who might find it interesting from a speculative angle?

If you do this, be sure to tell us where you are so we can sign up and follow the discussion there as well.

S3052 also posts his prognostications on the blog at http://www.bitcoinmedia.posterous.com which is getting some great feedback from followers.

[S3052]

S3052, is there a forex discussion forum that you frequent?  Why not also offer your BTC/USD pronostications on a forex forum, so that it provides exposure to bitcoin to people who might find it interesting from a speculative angle?

If you do this, be sure to tell us where you are so we can sign up and follow the discussion there as well.

Thanks for the hint. Currently, I do not frequent a forex discussion. But I like the idea. Do you have any recommendation which one to enter? I am happy to look into that.

[S3052]

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.


Overall, our forecast is well on track. After the forecast brake out from the triangle, prices reached quickly the ideal interim target of 0.17 $. Also, prices did indeed consolidate between 0.17 and 0.12 $ for a while. However, consolidation was short and did not go as deep as expected, showing once more that we are in a very robust rally, with surprises happening on the upside.
Today I am publishing a chart from bitcoinmarket.com. Not because I think it drives a different conclusion, but soley to show that both exchanges show overall the same picture: an almost vertical rally over the past 3-4 trading days.


Analysis Oct 27 (chart attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows. The uptrend is intact.
Based on the recent, big move to the upside, former resistance of 0.09-0.10$ now becomes strong support. As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in a longterm uptrend.


2. Short term update
After the breakout that went even beyond 0.17 (to around 0.20), the 0.17 level becomes short term support. As long as prices do not significantly break 0.17, the immediate uptrend is intact.

Now to the most difficult part: How long can the rally go? Well, the current rally is technically so strong (volume is rising again with rising prices), that surprises can again be on the upside. As we are making all time highs almost every day, and as we do not have long-term price history in BTC, there is still a lot of upside, and it is difficult (and dangerous) to try picking the top.
The only resistances in my p.o.v are psychological ones: 0.25 (a “quarter”), 0.50, and the magic PARITY.
At the same time, watch out for closes below 0.10-0.09 which would indicate that the rally is over in the short run, and deeper consolidation to the 0.06 level is possible. As long as this level holds, we are still fundamentally in a rally.

Next update Friday.

[Bimmerhead]

Thanks for the hint. Currently, I do not frequent a forex discussion. But I like the idea. Do you have any recommendation which one to enter? I am happy to look into that.

I think the largest is ForexFactory.com, and another I've used is babypips.com

Great analysis today btw.  The question on my mind is, where is all the buying coming from? 

[caveden]

Great analysis today btw.  The question on my mind is, where is all the buying coming from? 

I ask myself the same question.
It can't be only the libertarian geeks of this forum... or maybe the hoarding is so strong that it pushes the prices very high?

[Timo Y]

I ask myself the same question.
It can't be only the libertarian geeks of this forum... or maybe the hoarding is so strong that it pushes the prices very high?

If the hoarding was so strong we wouldn't see these kinds of volumes.

[caveden]

If the hoarding was so strong we wouldn't see these kinds of volumes.

Makes sense.
Can you guess where does all the demand comes from? It's not as if bitcoin was that useful already, concerning the transactions that can be made with.

PS: Comédia o "me dá um dinheiro aí" 

[S3052]

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.


Overall, our forecast is well on track. After the forecasted brake out from the triangle, prices reached quickly the ideal interim target of 0.17 $. Prices then did indeed consolidate between 0.17 and 0.12 $ for a 3 days before breaking out to just under 0.20 $.
Since then, prices consolidate on a high level between 0.191 $ and 0.173 $ (sideways range).

Analysis Oct 29 (charts attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
Key long term support  is 0.09-0.10$. As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
A deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible. But as long as this level holds, we are still fundamentally in a rally.

2. Short term update
After the breakout to just under 0.20, the 0.173 level is now short term support. As long as prices do not significantly break 0.173, the immediate uptrend is intact.
However, due to the negative divergence of volume (down) and prices (up), I am adding an element of caution now. If prices break 0.173, we may enter a correction with short term targets of 0.13$ (former resistance) and then longterm support of 0.09 – 0.10$.

Next update Monday, Nov 1st.

[S3052]

Thanks for the hint. Currently, I do not frequent a forex discussion. But I like the idea. Do you have any recommendation which one to enter? I am happy to look into that.

I think the largest is ForexFactory.com, and another I've used is babypips.com

Great analysis today btw.  The question on my mind is, where is all the buying coming from? 

Thanks. I just started my membership at ForexFactory.com
It will take some time until I can start my own thread. I first need to prove that I am serious...

[Bimmerhead]

Thanks. I just started my membership at ForexFactory.com

Excellent!

It will take some time until I can start my own thread. I first need to prove that I am serious...

Yeah, that's one reason why they have more credibility over there than some places.  I'm sure it will be worth the wait.

[m0mchil]

If some commodity (bitcoin for example) has changed it's price significantly against some well established currency ($) shouldn't its trading volume decline? Because volume of 50 000 BTC at 0.06$ and 0.2$ represents proportionally different volume in $. It will stay the same only if the actual volume of the economy is larger.

Perhaps BTC exchangers should provide volume data in their other currencies? This will provide more realistic view in my opinion.