Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ludwig Von]

It looks like the bankrunner bringing fiat from my bank, Ghent Be to the Stamp bank (in Slovenia) somewhere got lost. Next time I will include a routeplanner when I try to do that again... .

[Hueristic]

A good opsec security is just a part of the equation trying to avoiding crimes involving crypto’s happens to you:

Norwegian bitcoin millionaire jumped down 2 stories from his balcony after man with shotgun broke in to his house. This is why you never tell anyone you own BTC

https://twitter.com/redditbtc/status/1170809574607249409?s=21

This is my suggestion.
Fillippone, your fellow Mexican WO pal.
Going to a trekking in Yucatàn trying to forget the fact I just lost my private keys in a boating accident!

Lol, Here's a good reply.

Well technically he jumped one story because he was already at the bottom of the second story.

[Hueristic]

This yoyo BTC price is a bit boring...  

Not if you

I think the trick here is to avoid the unprofitable Scenario 1 and stick to Scenario 2.

Scenario 1:


Scenario 2:


So I'm going to play the "buy back" game only if the price drops significantly, like 75%.

[Hueristic]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Not sure if this should be done with left or right hand, but a little slot machine observing in Vegas this weekend.  

268 days into the new BTCull Market and all is well.  

I h8 slot machines and only use them to roll over my free play but something spoke to me in those shots,


I think it was the star trek theme.

[Hueristic]

 Antonio Brown is a team destroyer.  Go Steelers!!  

Edit: k.  I'll admit it was embarrassing and I wish I had gone to bed instead of watching.  Now I'm tired and angry.

I had Moncrief and Washington on my bench and moncrief is now tossed to the shitter, I remember him dropping everything at the colts but took a gamble just in case he stepped up. Washington looks like he's gonna work out though.

I am wondering if Tomlin is pulling the masterstroke and using AB as a radioactive Trojan Horse to take down several teams in the league and drive them into dysfunction. Belichick has superpowers of making things go right, but AB has superpowers of turning things into horseshit, its a question of who will have the strongest superpower. Its Bill's greatest test. AB is one of the biggest pieces of shit in sports that I can remember in my lifetime. Raiders were dumb to sign him, but Im pissed how he screwed them over.

ROTFLMFAO! Right, its all goddamn Voodoo.

Tomlin does have the worst luck and literally Belichick catches all the breaks that make him look like a genius. I really was pulling for the raiders as they were my team growing up (because the Pats sucked so bad i had to have 2 to root for) and Gruden is going through Prima Donna WR's like french whores go through perfume,. It looks like Gordon is even working out, who would have guessed that? Not me thats for sure. They started with nothing for wr and lost Gronk and now they have too much wr talent. They probably won't even make the playoffs now.

I have deduced that they're talking about a sport.

[JSRAW]

Anyone shared this? No?

Dude built a Lightning ATM

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/d1hx12/i_built_a_lightning_atm_build_your_own/

[LFC_Bitcoin]

^ Lambie we are supposed to concentrate on WO sign?  

Dear Lord!
I hadn't noticed!
Something is wrong with me, if I care more about WO sign instead of natural (or not natural, I don't care) beauties!

Love these pics
Keep them coming guys

[bkbirge]

Didn't see this posted yet, the correlation with halving while not too surprising is still interesting, keep HODL'n...

While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull-run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1150. If you had bought in right at the top, then it took 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally broke that level in early 2017.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-analysis-every-bitcoin-holder-makes-a-profit-after-1-335-days

[bkbirge]

Some of you may get a kick out of this article...

Of course, technical analysis sometimes seems to work, says Janny Kul, who crunched the numbers on hundreds of TA research papers. Likewise, a coin flipped several times might yield five heads in a row. But falsely assuming that the coin’s past landings affect the probability of its future landings is wrongheaded. Indeed, the fallacy even has a name—“statistical independence.”

https://decrypt.co/9002/technical-analysis-the-art-of-wrongly-predicting-the-future

"Coin’s past landings affect" analogy is stupid. There's a big chance tomorrow's price will be close to today's price, everyone knows that. Tomorrow's price is not "statistically independent" from today's price.

Multi-year trend lines also can be useful for multi-year predictions.

Even past 2-3 months can be useful, like right now we're experiencing 80 days of sideways. So there is a good chance we'll continue moving sideways for at least another week.

Can you quantify the 'good chance' and why the week time duration of your prediction? I think the analogy works when you consider the prediction is not whether the price is close to short term past but whether it moves up or down relative. That's the coin flip part. At least that's how I understood it.

[El duderino_]

The Bakkt Warehouse is active for futures

Bitcoin deposited at our Warehouse is protected by a $125 million insurance policy

https://twitter.com/bakkt/status/1171040208105758720?s=21

[fillippone]

Didn't see this posted yet, the correlation with halving while not too surprising is still interesting, keep HODL'n...

While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull-run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1150. If you had bought in right at the top, then it took 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally broke that level in early 2017.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-analysis-every-bitcoin-holder-makes-a-profit-after-1-335-days

This is nonsense.
No evidence, no rationale.
It's like driving straight on a road because on the the rear mirror it has always been a straight road.

[bkbirge]

Didn't see this posted yet, the correlation with halving while not too surprising is still interesting, keep HODL'n...

While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull-run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1150. If you had bought in right at the top, then it took 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally broke that level in early 2017.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-analysis-every-bitcoin-holder-makes-a-profit-after-1-335-days

This is nonsense.
No evidence, no rationale.
It's like driving straight on a road because on the the rear mirror it has always been a straight road.

Or like drawing a straight line through a price chart of the last 4 years and expecting it to still be straight 4 years from now.

[Phil_S]

Can you quantify the 'good chance' and why the week time duration of your prediction?

It's a gut feeling, not quantifiable math. And it's not a week but "at least a week", so could be longer. Maybe 2-3 weeks.

I think the analogy works when you consider the prediction is not whether the price is close to short term past but whether it moves up or down relative. That's the coin flip part. At least that's how I understood it.

There are different types of predictions, from unreliable short-term predictions for traders, to pretty reliable long-term predictions for us holders. It would be wrong to just dismiss all of them.

[bkbirge]

There are different types of predictions, from unreliable short-term predictions for traders, to pretty reliable long-term predictions for us holders. It would be wrong to just dismiss all of them.

Totally agree, that's why I find the topic pretty interesting.

[El duderino_]

#Gold made sense when transactions were physical interactions, but our digital world demands a form of digital gold. #DropGold

https://dropgold.com/drop-gold/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=2019_q3_MS

[jbreher]

If jbreher uses his intelligence to deceive people

Not at all. At least never intentionally.

or to to get caught in stupid-ass technical arguments

I guess it takes a self-described technical ignoramus to openly refer to technical arguments as 'stupid-ass'.

you have a significantly large amount of misleading and misinformation in your posts

You are wrong. There is no such thing as factual information that is misleading or misinforming. I present facts, and leave the editorializing to a minimum. Any mis- is in your misattribution of ulterior motive to my actions, which causes you to invent things in my writings that are not there.

Regarding your stupid-ass technical arguments, they frequently are stupid-ass because they either are misleading or they are put too much weight on improbable events, which is another form of misleading.

Again, I present mostly scenarios within the range of possibility. I rarely assign probabilities to such events.

OTOH, to outwardly shame the presenter of truthful possibilities is indeed in itself a misleading activity, largely the domain of those trying to prevent the truth from becoming widely known.

Since it seems quite unlikely that you are going to get banned,

Dream on, compadre, dream on.

Remember Jstolfi?  

What the hell does Stolfi have to do with this? Absolutely nothing. Stolfi was rational, but he worked from flawed axioms - to wit:
- Bitcoin is merely a currency at best.
- Deflationary currencies can never work in any role in economic society.

Nay, the axiom that we seem to disagree upon would seem to be my belief that actual utility matters.

[jbreher]

JJG, you may be a bit too wordy, but I'm glad that you spare the time to call out the destructive bullshit that jbreher spews in order to manipulate others. I am also thankful for Hairy's contributions as well. 

Yeah. Too bad for your camp of witch-burners that JJG never actually addresses any of the points made, and that when Hairy does, it backfires spectacularly due to his/her lack of grasp of the very topics s/he utters.

[nutildah]

I am wondering if Tomlin is pulling the masterstroke and using AB as a radioactive Trojan Horse to take down several teams in the league and drive them into dysfunction. Belichick has superpowers of making things go right, but AB has superpowers of turning things into horseshit, its a question of who will have the strongest superpower. Its Bill's greatest test. AB is one of the biggest pieces of shit in sports that I can remember in my lifetime. Raiders were dumb to sign him, but Im pissed how he screwed them over.

Hey Lambie (and other NFL fans), I started my own NFL predictions thread in the Gambling section, but its pretty slow going over there. Feel free to stop by and drop some of your wisdom if you like. I'm always looking for insights about picks, I'm sure others are too:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5179018

I have deduced that they're talking about a sport.

The only sport where I can sit through the whole damn thing.

It is a bit weird that Americans decided to adopt the word "football" for their sport. The foot connecting with the ball is a rarer part of the action.

[Gahs]

The Bakkt Warehouse is active for futures

Bitcoin deposited at our Warehouse is protected by a $125 million insurance policy

https://twitter.com/bakkt/status/1171040208105758720?s=21

I fear BTC price will tumble significantly when Bakkt swings full gear.
At least that's what happened back in 2017 when CBOE & CME launched futures trading.

[fillippone]

Brace Yourself: Institutional Investors are coming:
 Bitcoin Futures Trading on CME Hints at Influx of Institutional Money

During the month of August, over $5 billion worth of Bitcoin futures contracts have been traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. With each contract representing the right but not the obligation to purchase 5 BTC at a given price, over 100,000 futures contracts were traded on the platform.

The year-to-date numbers are apparently even more impressive. CME managing director Tim McCourt told Forbes contributor Benjamin Pirus that so far this year, Bitcoin futures are averaging more than 7,000 contracts per day on the platform.

This is meaningful because retail investors don’t have easy access to CME futures trading, so this growth doesn’t represent the participation of the average crypto user. Most futures trading on the CME platform comes from institutional investors and wealthy accredited investors, audiences that Bitcoiners have long been trying to win over.

Another two news are worth noting today on the same topic:

https://www.coindesk.com/uk-fund-that-aims-to-capitalize-on-crypto-volatity-raises-50-million

U.K.-licensed Nickel Asset Management says it has raised $50 million for a fund aimed to make profits off the volatility of cryptocurrencies.

“Our vision is that it’s simply a matter of time until digital assets become part of institutional portfolio allocation for forward-looking investors around the world, and we aim to build an institutional-quality gateway to this high-octane world of digital assets.”

The Bakkt Warehouse is active for futures

Bitcoin deposited at our Warehouse is protected by a $125 million insurance policy

https://twitter.com/Bakkt/status/1171040208105758720


These are two very important news: Ecosystem for institutional investor is slowly being built up.

It's very different from 2016, when CME futures gave the easy way to short the BITCOIN.
Now that selling pressure is already discounted on the market: the buying pressure on the market because of QE, Negative Rates, Geopolitical Risks, Inflation risks, Halving etc... is instead looming on the side, just waiting for the doors to open.