Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Cryptotourist]

The important thing is to pretend that this bet never happened.  

At least until someone gets shitfaced at the WO Christmas party.

Sorry sir, which bet are you referring to?
Oh, and which Xmas?

[gentlemand]

I like your mom, is she single?

Yes, but no conjugal visits in Britain. Will you be my Daddy anyway?

That's very bad and sad.
Was it in the news? I don't read the news nor watch the channels by the way. Too boring and full of propaganda.

It MIGHT not have been totally serious. But I don't let her talk to foreigners or ethnic minorities anyway. Awkward things happen.

[|Admiral|]

Bitcoin 5312$
+0.82% (24 hours)
+4.91% (1 week)
+31.77% (1 month)
-39.65% (1 year)
How long may take to recover this 39.65%?

[Retina]

My Take on The Bump & Run Reversal Theory! (Bitcoin)

Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the weekly BLX chart, we can see tat Bitcoin continues to struggle at overhead resistance. That resistance is the weekly 50 EMA (in orange,) which is intersecting exactly with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , which is produced from the decline from 6000-3000. We also have big resistance at 5500, from the low on November 12th, 2017, which the recent high was rejected at. However, Bitcoin has surpassed a descending trendline (in black,) that has recently been popularized on the internet as a key part of a potential "bump and run reversal" bottom formation (more on that later.)

So, we are at a critical retracement level (61.8%,) while simultaneously testing a critical moving average (weekly 50 EMA ,) after being rejected at lateral overhead resistance (5500,) but above some newly found support (lead in trendline .) Taking all of that into consideration, I have come to the conclusion that I must do my own assessment of this bump and run reversal theory, to see if it sway's my view. Because currently, from a pure probability standpoint, I do believe that there is a much higher chance that we fall from here, as opposed to the probability that Bitcoin continues to rally. With that said, perhaps the bump and run reversal argument has merit (anything is possible.) Regardless, if we did move higher, the upside would likely be very limited. You can see that the weekly 50 MA (in red) is falling toward price action, just above the weekly 50 EMA . So, if BTC broke out higher, it would have to contend with that, and then the ultimate resistance zone between 5777 and slightly above 6000 (in red.) With that said, I am still cautiously sitting on the sidelines, after taking profits from my long that I've added to since December.

Looking at the Stochastic RSI , we can see that it is pegged on 100, and has been there since the beginning of March. Additionally, the daily RSI just came off of near record overbought territory, and the daily MACD is also showing signs of exhaustion, after printing a bearish crossover a few days ago.

Recently, I saw the argument that has been circulating around the internet regarding the bump and run bottoming setup for Bitcoin . While I do think that the bottom is in, I'm not too sure about the bump and run reversal theory. So, let's take a look at the chart in depth, to see how that theory stacks up with the technical requirements necessary to produce a bump and run reversal.

1. Lead in Trendline: "If it's too steep, then the ensuing bump is unlikely to be significant enough. If the trend line is not steep enough, then the subsequent trend line break will occur too late. Bulkowski advises that an angle of 30 to 45 degrees is preferable." Our lead in trendline is -23°.

This is below the "preferable" range.

2. Bump Phase: "Ideally, the angle of the trend line from the bump's advance should be about 50% greater than the angle of the trend line extending up from the lead-in phase. Roughly speaking, this would call for an angle between 45 and 60 degrees." Our bump phase trendline is -54°.

This is in line with the required angle.

3. Bump Validation: "The distance from the lowest low of the bump to the lead-in trend line should be at least twice the distance from the lowest low in the lead-in phase to the lead-in trend line . These distances can be measured by drawing a vertical line from the highest highs to the lead-in trend line ."

Distance of lowest low of bump to lead in: 3008
Distance of lowest low of lead in to lead in: 2185.

So, 3008 is not "at least twice" the distance of 2185. Therefore, the bump was not validated.

4. Bump Rollover: Clearly we saw a bump rollover when price rose from the lows.

5. Volume: The volume progression looks consistent with that of the bump and run reversal volume requirements.

6. Run Phase: "The run phase begins when the pattern breaks support from the lead-in trend line ... Once the break occurs, the run phase takes over, and the rally continues."

According to this description, we are in the "run phase."

7. Resistance Turns Support: "After the trend line is broken, there is sometimes a retracement that tests the newfound support level . Potential resistance-turned-support levels can also be identified from the reaction highs within the bump."

So, based on this, we could see price return to the lead in trendline , to test it for support. That could also be near the highs formed during the bump phase.

In summary, this is not a perfect textbook bump and run reversal pattern. I think it does help to confirm that the bottom is in. However, I still think the overhead resistance is too great to be broken right now, and the indicators show clear exhaustion. Therefore, we should expect price to return to the lead in trendline , to test it for support as the theory suggests. That is what I think is the most likely scenario. From there, I think Bitcoin will progressively become more bullish .

I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.

***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/XbjRN4ZH-My-Take-on-The-Bump-Run-Reversal-Theory-Bitcoin/

[kenzawak]

I do hope you're safely in hiding.

My own ailing mother voted for Brexit and stabbed someone to death only last week for buying Polish ham down the supermarket. As they lay dying they said it was only because it was cheaper. She hissed that she didn't care and carried on digging with her blade until the entire contents of their torso lay steaming all over the aisle.

That's very bad and sad.
Was it in the news? I don't read the news nor watch the channels by the way. Too boring and full of propaganda.

No but again neither was Bitserve's story about his balls.

[kenzawak]

Good morning gentlemen. Nice to see the price has broken $5,300, who knows, maybe a nice weekend pump still to come.

Unlike like last year, we've had pretty good weekends lately. Let's hope it stays that way !

Bitcoin Indicators Are Bullish.

https://medium.com/@CL20/bitcoin-indicators-are-bullish-205a6b30f9e0

"1. We are Above Realized Value
Historically, every time Bitcoin goes under the realized value, it has been the most difficult period of the bear market, and everytime bitcoin pulls back above realized value, a new parabolic bull run begins. We’re now above the realized value!

2. Miner Revenue
If history repeats itself, bitcoin is within the accumulation zone, according to miner’s revenue.

3. CVDD
CVDD tracks the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as coins move from old hands into new hands as a ratio to the market age.

4. Volatility
Each time bitcoin price capitulated and found the bottom, it has came with a spike in volatility. It appears we have already capitulated and hit the bottom, as marked by the spike in volatility.

5. False On-chain Volume data was Painting an Overly Bearish Picture.
Some analyst have been confused as to why NVT has been showing extremely bearish signals. Recently, it was found that blockchain.com who provide the onchain volume data, the information at core of NVT’s formulae, has been supplying the market with wrong data.

The updated indicator looks much less bearish."

[HairyMaclairy]

In other news NVT has never worked so we are going to blame a third party

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

New scam in town 😂

https://twitter.com/Cryptanzee/status/1119038416136691713?s=19

Well stupid people deserve it LOL

[JSRAW]

If you’re still in $crypto after you’ve:

- been scammed
- been dumped on
- woken up in complete shock
- bought the top of a pump
- panic sold the bottom

🙏 Congrats 🙏

There are only a select few who can say this 💯

https://twitter.com/MrMichaelNye/status/1000752750425075712?s=19

[dyask]

If you’re still in $crypto after you’ve:

- been scammed
- been dumped on
- woken up in complete shock
- bought the top of a pump
- panic sold the bottom

🙏 Congrats 🙏

There are only a select few who can say this 💯

https://twitter.com/MrMichaelNye/status/1000752750425075712?s=19

Lot more than a few.   If only I had just bought and held ... 

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

If you’re still in $crypto after you’ve:

- been scammed
- been dumped on
- woken up in complete shock
- bought the top of a pump
- panic sold the bottom

🙏 Congrats 🙏

There are only a select few who can say this 💯

https://twitter.com/MrMichaelNye/status/1000752750425075712?s=19

Count me one. Years of experience LOL

[Ibian]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Whole of BTC-world knows this story and everybody is with Elwar, just so Nice to read and to hear he’s ok....

GoGoGo Elwar and be safe!!!

Has a major media outlet picked it up yet?

I heard a story on NPR about it today.

I am surprised by a belligerent reaction to what is essentially building a floating house.
Not sure that I understand this.

Me either. What's the difference between that and an anchored sailboat?

Permanency. And it's highly unusual. States don't like when their tax cattle do anything that makes people think in different ways.

[hisslyness]

If you’re still in $crypto after you’ve:

- been scammed
- been dumped on
- woken up in complete shock
- bought the top of a pump
- panic sold the bottom

🙏 Congrats 🙏

There are only a select few who can say this 💯

https://twitter.com/MrMichaelNye/status/1000752750425075712?s=19

Lot more than a few.   If only I had just bought and held ... 

That’s not really a post you want to be associated with!.. or be congratulated on...

Maybe if it was something like...

If you are now hodling Bitcoin after you’ve:

.....

[Hueristic]

Vastly Lates bot tried to upgrade its humor algorithm during its time away. Gonna need some more work there buddy, but good effort. I mean it.

You're quite right of course, clever bot. Entirely coincidentally, still have itchy feet, and will be away for much of the summer. Might look in to taunt you a second time. Perhaps you will have been funny by the end of it. Like a black swan event or a miracle.

Apparently he made it to Vietnam so out of immediate danger

It's Ironic that he had to run to Vietnam where BTC is illegal as a means of payment.

The whole thing is completely ironic if we also take into account that being an US citizen/national could significantly help him in this crazy issue.

I mean.. Do you think anyone in power would care if some son of a bitch went and bazooked the seastead just for the "fun" of it if they had renounced any country citizenship? Probably not.

Total "freedom"/independence (from ANY country) is risky business. A good balance there would be the best choice. Or at least the safest one. In fact I will feel he is 100% safe when he arrives US or any other stable western country.

Agreed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-18/bitcoin-going-mainstream-might-hinge-on-new-york-crypto-license?utm_content=crypto&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter

After years of teasing with false ETF hopes, now they dangle Bakkt in front of everyone only to delay and delay into eternity. Fuck these cunts. I will laugh so hard if none of it gets approved till after 100k and they all miss the boat.

They already raped their pound of flesh with CME.

Don't fool yourself, they miss nothing.

Dont fool yourself that I fooled myself Perhaps it would have been more clear if I specified what I mean by missing the boat and who "they" are. I am referring to the regulatory agencies and the fees that they missed out on, the prestige that they missed out on, all the twitter followers they missed out on(Crypto mom and dad have tons, all other clowns have almost nothing), the feels of doing the right thing they missed out on, and much more I could list.

https://www.motif.com/faq/what-are-regulatory-transaction-fees

A legit Bitcoin ETF would have already netted them lots of fee revenue. Govy boyz like nothing more than revenue. They got peanuts from CME.  

Fuck these cunts. Boat missed over and over.

LOL, The Gov doesn't care about making capitol, it will just print M0ar. It's those that steer it that take the profits from its actions and they are working to milk everything they can.
Circle is one of those vehicles

Good morning gentlemen. Nice to see the price has broken $5,300, who knows, maybe a nice weekend pump still to come.

It’s a beautiful day in the UK today, have a great day everybody.

I've been looking at UK weather for a fucking week!

Take this shit back!

Apparently he made it to Vietnam so out of immediate danger

It's Ironic that he had to run to Vietnam where BTC is illegal as a means of payment.

Live to fight another day.... Essential rule of survival

I fully support Elwar and his ambitions but just find it Ironic that so very few countries have made BTC illegal for payments yet that is where he had to go.

Reality if a fucked up place to live.

I don't suppose  they were that bothered by one guy on a sea shed.

The looming threat was hundreds of people rushing and joining him and it all linking up like water-world.    :/

Then their sovereignty argument pops up stronger.

Yup, that is why TPTB make examples of people.

[Icygreen]

Yes I've put the JJG bot into read-only mode for the past few days.
Spring is here and he starts to feel a stirring in his algos, a yearning for fellow bots of the female variety.
It's a dangerous time for him as well as frankly for us; we do not want these things to proliferate.
Look what happened last year; I let the experiment run a bit and we were left with the cryotourist bot, the slammielayer bot, the kingnocoiner bot; all hideous aberrations with their views and dodgy deals and fake interests in shitcoins and counterarguments and whatnot.

Maybe he's a bit emotional and took the shut the fuck up JJG  Wednesday a bit too to heart. (Or at least his internet persona did)

I doubt he's upset about anything, dude has thick skin and refused to take anything personally. I admire that, (I think).  I'm hoping his absence isn't health related.  He had sort of mentioned health complications in a recent post. Possibly heart related?
He'd ghosted for about a week near Christmas but it had different circumstances, some of which earned him the time out.

[VB1001]

Bitcoin stands out as it outperforms Oil, Bonds, Gold, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 during bear market

Bitcoin was subjected to a lot of pushback since its inception, with the Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen calling Bitcoin a “highly speculative asset”.
There were institutional players who perceived Bitcoin to be nothing more than a bubble, speculating its price to eventually fall to zero. However,
Bitcoin seems to be doing well for itself as it has outperformed traditional markets in 2019.

https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-stands-out-as-it-outperforms-oil-bonds-gold-nasdaq-100-and-sp-500-during-bear-market/


Ignoring the creators of FUD, Bitcoin is bitcoin and its circumstances but it keeps going.

[jojo69]

Do those campaigns pay any posts here? I mean, no sigs displayed...

that latest yobit one uses the "personal text" under the avatar

[VB1001]

Yes I've put the JJG bot into read-only mode for the past few days.
Spring is here and he starts to feel a stirring in his algos, a yearning for fellow bots of the female variety.
It's a dangerous time for him as well as frankly for us; we do not want these things to proliferate.
Look what happened last year; I let the experiment run a bit and we were left with the cryotourist bot, the slammielayer bot, the kingnocoiner bot; all hideous aberrations with their views and dodgy deals and fake interests in shitcoins and counterarguments and whatnot.

Maybe he's a bit emotional and took the shut the fuck up JJG  Wednesday a bit too to heart. (Or at least his internet persona did)

I doubt he's upset about anything, dude has thick skin and refused to take anything personally. I admire that, (I think).  I'm hoping his absence isn't health related.  He had sort of mentioned health complications in a recent post. Possibly heart related?
He'd ghosted for about a week near Christmas but it had different circumstances, some of which earned him the time out.

JJG

Last active: Today at 06:30:41

Maybe he's on vacation, but he connects to the forum.

[jojo69]

as long as I don't have to wade through his irascible, pedantic  reams I am content

[Icygreen]

Do those campaigns pay any posts here? I mean, no sigs displayed...

that latest yobit one uses the "personal text" under the avatar

I think it is paying for posts here.  It's been recognizing and accumulating in my account.  
Actually, I'm pretty impressed so far. I think there's some bonus entry gift satoshi's caust the first 3 posts = .0009 and later posts gave .00012 each.
If anything it'll encourage me to post more often with quality posts and help me sharpen my skillz.  For now I'm digging it!